-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Victorian Election 2010
- Thread starter RemoteTiger
- Start date
the Libs have offered nothing in opposition but they'll get in because many aren't happy with Labor.My comments are an opinion & are not baseless.l generally vote for the Libs so its not just a case of me taking the side of the ALP.ZeroGame said:
A Blessing for Labor really should TeD Bullpit get up.Labor will be assured to be back in Govt at the next election.
I know there are still a lot of pre-poll votes to count, but I don't see where the hung parliament is coming from, I see 45 clear leads in seats for the Coalition
The only way it can become a hung parliament is for the ALP to turn around Bentleigh which has a 214 vote lead to the coalition according to the VEC but 700 according to the ABC for some reason
01 Swan Hill 79.1 NAT RETAIN
02 Rodney 74.8 NAT RETAIN
03 Lowan 72.2 NAT RETAIN
04 Benalla 71.4 NAT RETAIN
05 Gippsland South 71.4 NAT RETAIN
06 Malvern 69.4 LIB RETAIN
07 Murray Valley 68.1 NAT RETAIN
08 Shepparton 67.9 NAT RETAIN
09 Brighton 67.9 LIB RETAIN
10 Hawthorn 67.4 LIB RETAIN
11 Sandringham 66.5 LIB RETAIN
12 Doncaster 66.1 LIB RETAIN
13 Mornington 65.9 LIB RETAIN
14 Morwell 65.3 NAT RETAIN
15 Benambra 64.9 LIB RETAIN
16 Bulleen 64.6 LIB RETAIN
17 Warrandyte 64.3 LIB RETAIN
18 Kew 64.2 LIB RETAIN
19 Scoresby 63.8 LIB RETAIN
20 Nepean 63.5 LIB RETAIN
21 Polwarth 63.5 LIB RETAIN
22 Box Hill 63.3 LIB RETAIN
23 Evelyn 62.8 LIB RETAIN
24 Bass 62 LIB RETAIN
25 Ferntree Gully 61.7 LIB RETAIN
26 Narracan 61.7 LIB RETAIN
27 Gippsland East 61.5 NAT GAIN
28 Caulfield 61.4 LIB RETAIN
29 South-West Coast 61.2 LIB RETAIN
30 Hastings 60.9 LIB RETAIN
31 Kilsyth 60.1 LIB RETAIN
32 Bayswater 59.5 LIB RETAIN
33 Mildura 58.4 NAT RETAIN
34 Mount Waverley 56.8 LIB GAIN
35 Gembrook 56.2 LIB GAIN
36 Burwood 55.8 LIB GAIN
37 Prahran 54.8 LIB GAIN
38 South Barwon 53.7 LIB GAIN
39 Frankston 53.6 LIB GAIN
40 Seymour 53.2 LIB GAIN
41 Mitcham 53.1 LIB GAIN
42 Forest Hill 53 LIB GAIN
43 Carrum 52.9 LIB GAIN
44 Mordialloc 51.9 LIB GAIN (1032 vote lead)
45 Bentleigh 50.4 LIB GAIN (214 vote lead)
The only way it can become a hung parliament is for the ALP to turn around Bentleigh which has a 214 vote lead to the coalition according to the VEC but 700 according to the ABC for some reason
01 Swan Hill 79.1 NAT RETAIN
02 Rodney 74.8 NAT RETAIN
03 Lowan 72.2 NAT RETAIN
04 Benalla 71.4 NAT RETAIN
05 Gippsland South 71.4 NAT RETAIN
06 Malvern 69.4 LIB RETAIN
07 Murray Valley 68.1 NAT RETAIN
08 Shepparton 67.9 NAT RETAIN
09 Brighton 67.9 LIB RETAIN
10 Hawthorn 67.4 LIB RETAIN
11 Sandringham 66.5 LIB RETAIN
12 Doncaster 66.1 LIB RETAIN
13 Mornington 65.9 LIB RETAIN
14 Morwell 65.3 NAT RETAIN
15 Benambra 64.9 LIB RETAIN
16 Bulleen 64.6 LIB RETAIN
17 Warrandyte 64.3 LIB RETAIN
18 Kew 64.2 LIB RETAIN
19 Scoresby 63.8 LIB RETAIN
20 Nepean 63.5 LIB RETAIN
21 Polwarth 63.5 LIB RETAIN
22 Box Hill 63.3 LIB RETAIN
23 Evelyn 62.8 LIB RETAIN
24 Bass 62 LIB RETAIN
25 Ferntree Gully 61.7 LIB RETAIN
26 Narracan 61.7 LIB RETAIN
27 Gippsland East 61.5 NAT GAIN
28 Caulfield 61.4 LIB RETAIN
29 South-West Coast 61.2 LIB RETAIN
30 Hastings 60.9 LIB RETAIN
31 Kilsyth 60.1 LIB RETAIN
32 Bayswater 59.5 LIB RETAIN
33 Mildura 58.4 NAT RETAIN
34 Mount Waverley 56.8 LIB GAIN
35 Gembrook 56.2 LIB GAIN
36 Burwood 55.8 LIB GAIN
37 Prahran 54.8 LIB GAIN
38 South Barwon 53.7 LIB GAIN
39 Frankston 53.6 LIB GAIN
40 Seymour 53.2 LIB GAIN
41 Mitcham 53.1 LIB GAIN
42 Forest Hill 53 LIB GAIN
43 Carrum 52.9 LIB GAIN
44 Mordialloc 51.9 LIB GAIN (1032 vote lead)
45 Bentleigh 50.4 LIB GAIN (214 vote lead)
ZeroGame said:
the number of votes in postals and pre-polls is huge, at least double previous elections (know a couple of people who have been scrutineering them all week). unfortunately its bloody hard to predict pre-polls, because they don't always match the trend, and as they come from any booth, its hard to make a call on historical trends. you would be mad to concede until the direction of these votes is know.
Tough election, I cannot honestly see someone who I have faith in on either side.
The state cupboard is bare for both parties. Actually the overall belief factor I have in those in power is at a all time low, state or federal.
It is no longer about trying to do the right thing and changing society for the better, it is just about being 0.5% better then the other mob.
No more, no less. Although Brumby ballsed up every major project known to man, the Libs couldn't show them up. Couldn't make them look like the bumbling pack of fools they are. But instead the Libs policies couldn't even be costed correctly.
It's not a vote of confidence for Baillieu, just a sign that Brumby has stuffed up too much.
The state cupboard is bare for both parties. Actually the overall belief factor I have in those in power is at a all time low, state or federal.
It is no longer about trying to do the right thing and changing society for the better, it is just about being 0.5% better then the other mob.
No more, no less. Although Brumby ballsed up every major project known to man, the Libs couldn't show them up. Couldn't make them look like the bumbling pack of fools they are. But instead the Libs policies couldn't even be costed correctly.
It's not a vote of confidence for Baillieu, just a sign that Brumby has stuffed up too much.
They announced on CH 2 news that it is effectively all over for Brumby - Libs extending lead in Bentleigh. Couldn't understand when they were 400 in front in Bentleigh it was undecided yet in Eltham Labor were only 200 in front yet they were declaring it an ALP seat.
The ALP made some pretty large errors in their campaign IMO. And Brumby's speech last night was pretty poor.
The ALP made some pretty large errors in their campaign IMO. And Brumby's speech last night was pretty poor.
Yes, but they've counted most of those pre-polls in Bentleigh now, the only ones left are interstate and international postals. Unless the recount tomorrow shows a massive balls up, it's all over.Tiger74 said:
Still peddling the same rubbish comment as usual? Try something constructive and original rather than your usual repetitive one line crap.mb64 said:
jb03 said:
the TV stations are all making assumptions on the pre-polls/postals, which is risky at the best of times, dangerous now when they are increasing in number so much.
they normally work on how the split normally occurs, and then see how the various booths have performed (in terms of votes cast and how the split has moved). then they will estimate how these changes may effect the dynamic of the pre-polls/postals
with regards to Bentleigh and Eltham, I've read/heard nothing since last night, so its tough to comment specifically. I can only guess that ALP or LIB booths may be down for each, and they are punting that the pre-polls/postals will favour accordingly
on the recount Zero, if its close you always hold. the AEC/VEC officials are a real mixed bag. Some booths get a decent squad (I know the group at my booth yesterday were really good), and others get kids only interested in a paycheck. One election I remember the mob we had were hopeless. Spent half the night challenging ballots for basic errors they should have picked up (i.e. wrong pile, missing numbers, etc).
mb64 said:
Can be no worse than the disaray we have just been put through. When Labor was elected through Bracks they had a massive platform to work off. Kennett got us to the top. They then slowly ripped it all apart.
Tough job the Libs have if they indeed do win government, cleaning up Labors vast array of costly mistakes while trying to move our great state forward. They have done it before and I'd rather put my hopes in them doing it again, than having Labor rip us up to shreds moreso.
Good luck Ted.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/ted-baillieu-ready-to-plan-liberal-partys-transition-to-power/story-fn5kmqy2-1225962373651
But it was the Coalition's decision during the campaign to preference the Greens last across the board that was the game changer.
Despite providing Labor with a lift in the inner city, the Coalition's choice was a vote winner with the key demographics of disillusioned males aged 30-55 in the outer suburbs that have taken Mr Baillieu to the doorsteps of power in Spring Street.
"It showed voters that Ted has balls," a senior Liberal MP said. "And this was the turning point as voters really started to respond."
Fellow ex-Labor premier John Cain said the party had lost its legitimacy to rule after polling below 40 per cent.
I have found this very interesting. What are labour going to do about the Greens?
But it was the Coalition's decision during the campaign to preference the Greens last across the board that was the game changer.
Despite providing Labor with a lift in the inner city, the Coalition's choice was a vote winner with the key demographics of disillusioned males aged 30-55 in the outer suburbs that have taken Mr Baillieu to the doorsteps of power in Spring Street.
"It showed voters that Ted has balls," a senior Liberal MP said. "And this was the turning point as voters really started to respond."
Fellow ex-Labor premier John Cain said the party had lost its legitimacy to rule after polling below 40 per cent.
I have found this very interesting. What are labour going to do about the Greens?
