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Victorian Election 2010

One View:


Baillieu shows guts on Greens
Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor
From: The Australian November 18, 2010

THERE are good reasons the Liberal Party should win the Victorian election.

FOR the sake of national security, and foreign policy more generally, it will be good if Victorian Liberal leader Ted Baillieu is elected premier on Saturday week. This is a big call. After all, Australian politics are generally pretty provincial and nowhere more so than state politics.

But there are two big decisions Baillieu has made that have important international or national security consequences, and three other significant reasons John Brumby's time in office should come to an end.

Baillieu deserves election partly because of the Victorian Liberals' sound and brave decision to put the Greens last in the preferences on their how-to-vote cards. The tactical significance of this can be overstated. After all, how-to-vote cards are only a recommendation. But in this time of political querulousness and confusion, the public wants clear direction and clear beliefs.

You can make a case that tactically it would be advisable for the Liberals to preference the Greens at least sometimes. But in principle you can't make any such case. The Greens are a party of the far Left, Labor of the Centre Left, and the Liberals of the Centre Right. It is profoundly damaging to the Liberals' strategic prospects, and to Australian society, to have a surge of support to the most left-wing party in the Australian parliament.

Consider this imperfectly but instructively analogous situation. In 1990 one David Duke, a former grand wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, fluked, under complicated rules, a win in the Republican primary for the governorship of Louisiana. In the race against the Democrat incumbent Edwin Edwards, George H. W. Bush, the Republican president, urged his supporters in Louisiana to vote for the Democrat because it was unconscionable to support Duke. Edwards was no statesman and nobody thought he was. There was a stench of corruption about his administration, leading to the memorable bumper sticker: "Vote for the crook, it's important".

The Greens are a pernicious and extreme party; they are now in power in coalition in Tasmania and are part of a power-sharing arrangement with the Gillard government in Canberra, though Gillard got absolutely nothing from the Greens in return for going into alliance with them. The Liberals are not compromising their contest with Labor by putting the Greens last and making it hard for them to get into Australian lower houses of parliament.

The trouble with the Greens is ABC television treats them with the deference it might have shown an Anglican bishop 50 or 60 years ago. The Greens are treated as though they represent a purer, higher form of ABC ideology, that is, received opinion only more so. Graham Richardson commented recently that Greens' leader Bob Brown was the best politician in Australia. This may be because Brown is never asked a tough question. His monsignorial demeanour reduces the ABC's hard men to adoring altar boys, lighting devotional candles.

However, a cursory stroll through the Greens website shows just how extreme and destructive their ideology is. It's built on a hatred of modern Western society and as such is the logical successor to the Communist Party, just as many Greens were former communist activists or their progeny.

Let me give you a few examples of Greens positions. They want a minimum 40 per cent reduction in Australia's 1990 greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 and by 2050 they want net zero greenhouse gas emissions from Australia. Translated into broad English, that means deindustrialising our society. They want no uranium mining or export, and opposition to nuclear power everywhere, which shows how utterly fatuous their greenhouse ambitions are. They want to abolish the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the World Trade Organisation. They want Australia to withdraw from all free trade agreements. They want an end to our alliance with the US. They want no Australian defence exports, which means if other countries adopted a similar policy it would be impossible for Australia to have a defence force at all.

And there's much, much more. They want our immigration program focused on family reunion and asylum-seekers, as opposed to the skilled migration that has won strong support from Australians. Traditionally, they have wanted a smaller Australian population, though I couldn't see that on the website. All their welfare policies involve vast increases in government spending yet, of course, there is no attempt to reconcile this with their wealth destroying, anti-business agenda.

The presence of this extreme and frankly loopy party in our parliaments moves the whole of Australian politics to the Left. It damages our ability to confront our problems, it represents a destructive, anti-American, almost nihilist approach to geo-strategic issues and it must be bad for the Liberal Party.

The other positive reason to elect Baillieu is the way he stood up for Indian students in Victoria when they were being systematically bashed on public transport. He did this before it became a media issue and with no profit for himself. Foreign students in Australia don't vote. Baillieu's stand was honourable, brave and true.

Similarly, there are three reasons Brumby should go. He comprehensively mishandled the Indian student matter. This was a bad failure in itself but it also did Australia's international reputation more harm than any other event in the past two decades.

Brumby's government is much better than the shambles in NSW and there is a case for keeping the most coherent Labor government in office, simply to remind the Labor Party how it's done. But Brumby's government also has seen a steady decline in services and safety in Melbourne. Brumby denies this. One of his most annoying habits is claiming everything is perfect and that problems are only problems of perception. This reluctance to face harsh facts was the root of his failure with the Indian students. The Victorian capital runs better than Sydney, but there comes a point where that defence is not good enough.

And, finally, Labor has been in power for 11 years in Victoria. That's long enough. It's good for democracy to have a change. Baillieu has shown courage in adversity and given leadership on important issues. It's best for Australia if he wins.
 
And the other:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/editorials/victoria-deserves-strong-leadership-from-next-state-government/story-e6frfhqo-1225957487337

JOHN Brumby is asking a lot of Victorians next Saturday.

In appealing for a fourth term in office, the Premier is inviting voters to live under Labor rule for 15 years straight.

Should voters accept Mr Brumby's invitation, by November 2014 - the date of the next election - Labor will have governed Australia's most vibrant state for more than double the lifespan of the reformist government of Jeff Kennett.

On a longer timeline, a Brumby victory on Saturday means Labor's rule will be extended to 25 of the past 32 years. By any measure, that makes our state - once the jewel in the conservative crown and home of Liberal greats Sir Robert Menzies and Sir Henry Bolte - Labor's modern heartland.

So, in determining whether Mr Brumby and Labor deserve another chance on November 27, the Sunday Herald Sun is asking two questions.

First, has Labor delivered over the past four years under both former premier Steve Bracks and Mr Brumby?

Second, is Ted Baillieu and his Coalition better equipped than Labor to lead Victoria through the significant social and economic challenges we face over the next four years?

Mr Brumby inherited the premiership in August 2007 from Mr Bracks.

The Sunday Herald Sun believes Victoria's un-elected Premier has, over the past 1214 days, delivered the people a solid Government, based on the bedrock of responsible financial management. It has been largely free from the personal scandals born of hubris that engulf most long-term governments.

Victoria's forecast surplus is $3.2 billion over the next four years. We are the only state that achieved a surplus during the global economic crisis. Our prized AAA credit rating remains intact.

Our unemployment rate is currently 5.5 per cent. Strong jobs growth has been achieved in the midst of a historic boom taking Victoria's population to 5.5 million.

Underlining the health of the economy is the soaring tax take. Total taxation revenue is projected to grow from $14.7 billion in 2010-11 to $15.2 billion next year. Forecast stamp duty revenue on home sales is $3.8 billion in 2010-11.

Both sides will today offer a chunk of that back to voters, Mr Brumby offering a $115 million tax cut on new homes in regional Victoria. And he says another $200 million stamp duty cut may come later. Mr Baillieu, in keeping with his bigger spending campaign, is promising a statewide $750 million reduction for first home buyers.

It's on the question of basic services - ambulances, law and order and public transport - that Mr Brumby is vulnerable.

On Labor's watch, we lost control of our streets as drunken thuggery exploded. People don't feel safe on trains at night. That is an indictment on Labor. But more police have been promised and a tougher policing philosophy seems to be regaining control of the streets.

But it will be angry commuters who will mark the Government harshly. The myki ticketing system has been a $1 billion debacle and, while the sacking of private train operator Connex appears to have led to some improvement in services, commuters have long memories.

The Government is also grappling to articulate a planning vision for our growing population.

While our hospitals and schools are far from perfect, the Government has made massive investments in education and health.

The Treasurer inside Mr Brumby appears to have prevailed and Labor has gambled and not embarked on a spending blitz over the past month.

Much of the funding has been injected into policies that will play well in the family-dominated growth corridors.

More than $200 million was promised for a values-based plan for compulsory two-week school camps for all year 9 students.

Mr Brumby will hope Labor's family-focused campaign puts some distance between him and Mr Baillieu who, according to the latest Newspoll, is within striking distance of winning the 13 seats needed to govern.

In fact, as of yesterday there was a growing unease within Labor ranks that Mr Baillieu was poised for an upset victory.

Mr Baillieu has chosen a two-speed campaign strategy; a big spending platform spearheaded by an extraordinary promise to spend $1.4 billion on 40 new trains and a blitz of relatively small but carefully targeted local initiatives in key marginal seats.

But questions remain about how the Coalition will pay the massive bill for its promises. It has refused to submit its policies to Treasury for costing.

How ironic that, almost 20 years after Mr Kennett swept to power branding Labor the "Guilty Party" for sending the state broke, we have a Liberal leader ducking and weaving on financial management.

While on that topic, why has Mr Baillieu's shadow treasurer Kim Wells gone missing in action? In fact, most voters would probably ask themselves this: who is Mr Baillieu's shadow treasurer?

The financial and intellectual powerhouse that drove the Kennett government was treasurer Alan Stockdale. And the absence of a Stockdale in the Baillieu team raises some significant doubts about its capacity to govern.

A long-term government should not be ejected for the sake of it. Before we vote out a Government that has offered stability and sensible financial management, we need to be convinced the alternative is better.

That is not to say that Mr Baillieu has not improved, or that Mr Brumby has not followed his lead on issues like police numbers and an anti-corruption body. But it takes more than a couple of policy victories to articulate a case for change.

Mr Baillieu deserves applause for taking a stand against the Greens. By refusing to give them preferences he has all but ended that party's hopes of holding the balance of power. Voters should be wary of the Greens, a party led by self-appointed moral arbiters who believe themselves to be above scrutiny. As Victoria faces the challenges ahead we will need strong government more than ever.

The Sunday Herald Sun believes that on balance Labor is best equipped to deliver strong government over the next term. So today, we urge Victorians to re-elect John Brumby.

[email protected]
 
Could you please edit your post and include a link for that article Edit JB rather than Hayfever sorry. :)

I'm not interested in reading either article.  Far more interested in PREnders opinions.
 
There is no article to link. If people are interested they can check the various betting agencies. In a two horse race there is plenty of value in backing the underdog if someone is so inclined. Centrebet have Labor at $1.20 and Coalition at $4.40. Amazing odds!
 
Hayfever said:
There is no article to link. If people are interested they can check the various betting agencies. In a two horse race there is plenty of value in backing the underdog if someone is so inclined. Centrebet have Labor at $1.20 and Coalition at $4.40. Amazing odds!

I modified my post. I was doing a few things at once and mistakingly put the wrong name. I'll be interested to find out on Saturday if there was any value in backing the underdog int hsi situation. How do you think it will pan out Hay?
 
rosy23 said:
I modified my post. I was doing a few things at once and mistakingly put the wrong name. I'll be interested to find out on Saturday if there was any value in backing the underdog int hsi situation. How do you think it will pan out Hay?
No problem. I didn't pick up your amendment until after I'd posted.

I'd be stunned if the Coalition got up. Victoria used to be Liberal heartland, now it's virtually a wasteland. If Doyle and now Baillieu are the best they can dish up it's a very sad indictment on their Party's future.

However, people have also had a gutful of Labor as well. I wouldn't be putting my "hard-earned" on them at $1.20.
 
Hayfever said:
No problem. I didn't pick up your amendment until after I'd posted.

I'd be stunned if the Coalition got up. Victoria used to be Liberal heartland, now it's virtually a wasteland. If Doyle and now Baillieu are the best they can dish up it's a very sad indictment on their Party's future.

However, people have also had a gutful of Labor as well. I wouldn't be putting my "hard-earned" on them at $1.20.
Best not to bet
 
Rosy, put the link for the second article but I can't find the first anymore. Seems to have vanished.
 
rosy23 said:
Lots of ifs there mld. They raise a few if nots in my mind. Sounds like a paid political ad for the Libs desperately hoping to pick up a few crumbs. :hihi

Just throwing it out there. Seems strange that people can not like a government and vote for it anyway.

FWIW I actually think the current government is pretty good, always can do better but probably the best run state government in the country. The 'paid political ad' crack is a bit petty.
 
jb03 said:
Baillieu shows guts on Greens
Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor
From: The Australian November 18, 2010



The trouble with the Greens is ABC television treats them with the deference it might have shown an Anglican bishop 50 or 60 years ago. The Greens are treated as though they represent a purer, higher form of ABC ideology, that is, received opinion only more so. Graham Richardson commented recently that Greens' leader Bob Brown was the best politician in Australia. This may be because Brown is never asked a tough question. His monsignorial demeanour reduces the ABC's hard men to adoring altar boys, lighting devotional candles.
That bit is pretty true.
 
Voters should be wary of the Greens, a party led by self-appointed moral arbiters who believe themselves to be above scrutiny

A truer word hasn't been written.

IMO they are a dangerous party who are hiding their true intentions under the guise of "feeling good about the environment".

BTW, the dumped Greens candidate in the Latrobe Valley was scathing about the Greens on ABC Radio yesterday. She said the Greens leadership was above scrutiny even from their own party members.
 
poppa x said:
A truer word hasn't been written.

IMO they are a dangerous party who are hiding their true intentions under the guise of "feeling good about the environment"

What are their true intentions?
 
IanG said:
What are their true intentions?

Anti Civilization.
Anti Development
Anti Growth
Anti Business
Anti Farmers

Pro Anything with native animals (preferably not carnavores though) and plants but Anti anything human

Would rather see a river flow and a tree grow even if it means people dying
their polices if fully implemented would have us living in caves.
And I'm only half joking!
 
Liberal's a real chance to win with new polls having them deadlocked at 50-50 or even in front 51-49
The $4 odds are very tempting in a two horse race with such a cliffhanger result looming

God I hope they get in, I'm sick of Labor
 
ZeroGame said:
Liberal's a real chance to win with new polls having them deadlocked at 50-50 or even in front 51-49
The $4 odds are very tempting in a two horse race with such a cliffhanger result looming

God I hope they get in, I'm sick of Labor
If the Libs get in Victoria will decline very quickly.
 
It is pretty handy how they arranged to have voting booths at all the sausage sizzles today.