Trade Week - Richmond Only

[Sintiger]

Totally agree, some of the comments that people would prefer 11 (which is really 13 or maybe even 14) over whatever Norths pick next year is crazy. Its ironic that some of these are the same people bashing the club for giving up the pick we did for Hopper.

I agree with you on the drafts, the top 10 are as good as any other draft IMO, possibly a bit lower right at the pointy end - Ie. no clear superstar this year - and you are right I think 10-25 are probably better than most years but, doesn't mean that player in the middle of that group will be better than a top 5 pick next year.

There are already statements that Dyson Sharp would have gone number 1 in this years draft as his exposed form is excellent, and with some of the other guys for next year showing signs, there is nothing to suggest that the top 10 next year will be duds.

If we are offered 2 and F1st for 6 and 11 we should be snapping their hands off and running away like giggling schoolgirls.

Slightly different viewpoint Mr P

Let’s say we want 7 picks and are willing to trade 1 of them out.

Do this comparison (leaving out bids)

1. The mooted north deal. We end up with 1,2,10,18,20,23,24 and north’s F1
2. Another club trades us an F1 for say pick 20. The suns hold 3 of them, Essendon have 2. We would end up with 1,6,10,11,18,23,24 and an F1

Depending on the club who’s F1 we get, we could be better off.

There are lots of alternatives

 

[mrposhman]

Slightly different viewpoint Mr P

Let’s say we want 7 picks and are willing to trade 1 of them out.

Do this comparison (leaving out bids)

1. The mooted north deal. We end up with 1,2,10,18,20,23,24 and north’s F1
2. Another club trades us an F1 for say pick 20. The suns hold 3 of them, Essendon have 2. We would end up with 1,6,10,11,18,23,24 and an F1

Depending on the club who’s F1 we get, we could be better off.

There are lots of alternatives

As you say depends who's F1, the Suns won't trade theirs back into this years draft. I'm not even sure if they have many list spots, but their aim is to load up for next years draft (remember they've delisted from an enlarged list, next year they are back to the same list size as everyone else). Bombers maybe, but I think people are over valuing what we will get with our picks like 20.

We are unlikely to be getting a top 10 next year with Pick 20, thats not happening. Remember Pick 20, will slide by at least 3, possibly 4, so will be Pick 23 or 24. Sure its a stronger draft but can't see anyone giving up a potential top 10 pick for a pick 23 or 24 in this years draft, would be wildly incomptent, meaning that we will be trading with possible finalists.

Out of those, Carlton don't have 1, maybe Hawks, Freo won't give theirs up, more likely to trade a pick from this year into next I reckon. Brisbane might need to trade something forward to get Marshall, but they won't overpay for it, its points value afterall, so not sure where that leaves us with options. Sydney? Maybe but they have academy players next year, as do Brissy which I think is why they are waiting to trade additional into 2024 until they see where Ashcroft is bid on, they will trade during the draft, as they have another possible top 5 midfielder next year.

I just don't see there being a plethora of options to get a top 10, with 1 of those later picks. Our best bet of having a really good future pick next year is North.

 

[Sintiger]

As you say depends who's F1, the Suns won't trade theirs back into this years draft. I'm not even sure if they have many list spots, but their aim is to load up for next years draft (remember they've delisted from an enlarged list, next year they are back to the same list size as everyone else). Bombers maybe, but I think people are over valuing what we will get with our picks like 20.

We are unlikely to be getting a top 10 next year with Pick 20, thats not happening. Remember Pick 20, will slide by at least 3, possibly 4, so will be Pick 23 or 24. Sure its a stronger draft but can't see anyone giving up a potential top 10 pick for a pick 23 or 24 in this years draft, would be wildly incomptent, meaning that we will be trading with possible finalists.

Out of those, Carlton don't have 1, maybe Hawks, Freo won't give theirs up, more likely to trade a pick from this year into next I reckon. Brisbane might need to trade something forward to get Marshall, but they won't overpay for it, its points value afterall, so not sure where that leaves us with options. Sydney? Maybe but they have academy players next year, as do Brissy which I think is why they are waiting to trade additional into 2024 until they see where Ashcroft is bid on, they will trade during the draft, as they have another possible top 5 midfielder next year.

I just don't see there being a plethora of options to get a top 10, with 1 of those later picks. Our best bet of having a really good future pick next year is North.

If a bid comes for Lombard in the top 8 the suns don’t have enough points and either have to get more or go into 2025 deficit.
I would be very surprised if Essendon don’t want to trade back into 2024 once Kako is picked, either with their F1 or Melbourne’s.
I reckon our 18,20,23 and 24 are in big demand and will be in even more demand come draft night(s)

 

[Rfc4Ever]

North crazy to contemplate trading their future 1st.

If it is in the table, we should be in the hunt.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

As you say depends who's F1, the Suns won't trade theirs back into this years draft. I'm not even sure if they have many list spots, but their aim is to load up for next years draft (remember they've delisted from an enlarged list, next year they are back to the same list size as everyone else). Bombers maybe, but I think people are over valuing what we will get with our picks like 20.

We are unlikely to be getting a top 10 next year with Pick 20, thats not happening. Remember Pick 20, will slide by at least 3, possibly 4, so will be Pick 23 or 24. Sure its a stronger draft but can't see anyone giving up a potential top 10 pick for a pick 23 or 24 in this years draft, would be wildly incomptent, meaning that we will be trading with possible finalists.

Out of those, Carlton don't have 1, maybe Hawks, Freo won't give theirs up, more likely to trade a pick from this year into next I reckon. Brisbane might need to trade something forward to get Marshall, but they won't overpay for it, its points value afterall, so not sure where that leaves us with options. Sydney? Maybe but they have academy players next year, as do Brissy which I think is why they are waiting to trade additional into 2024 until they see where Ashcroft is bid on, they will trade during the draft, as they have another possible top 5 midfielder next year.

I just don't see there being a plethora of options to get a top 10, with 1 of those later picks. Our best bet of having a really good future pick next year is North.

Just a few points here

* Cameron mentioned in an interview after the trade for Rioli was completed that they would be looking to get back into this years draft and feel they will have enough picks in 2025 to cover their academy bids.

* Bombers will 100% be looking to get back into this draft after the Kako bid comes
* Geelong through Mackie also mentioned they have a desire to get into this years draft
* West Coast through Clarke also mentioned wanting to get back into the draft most likely with the Hawks 1st rounder which wont hold much value.

 

[mrposhman]

Just a few points here

* Cameron mentioned in an interview after the trade for Rioli was completed that they would be looking to get back into this years draft and feel they will have enough picks in 2025 to cover their academy bids.

* Bombers will 100% be looking to get back into this draft after the Kako bid comes
* Geelong through Mackie also mentioned they have a desire to get into this years draft
* West Coast through Clarke also mentioned wanting to get back into the draft most likely with the Hawks 1st rounder which wont hold much value.

So which of those do you value higher than we would get from North?

Geelong - nope
Hawks F1 - nope
Bombers - probably not but is probably the best option, I doubt they trade Melbournes F1st, I'd have them as a slider this year, another top 5 pick IMO
Suns - Personally I don't think so, I reckon they will move up with better ball movement out of their backline, its easily their biggest issue right now

I just don't see a better option for us personally.

6, 11 and Geelong / Hawks F1 plus we lose 20
Or 2, Norths F1 and we keep 20

I'd be doing the latter every time.

 

[The_General]

re: North.

From round 1 to 11 (Bye Rd 12) - 0 wins, percentage was 55.8%
From round 13 to 24 - 3 wins (Suns the best team there - 13th, West Coast and Tigers the others), percentage 71.4%

That's a reasonable improvement.
2025 - players more physically ready for AFL, and they've traded for some senior depth.
I'm wary they'll jump up a lot faster than folks expect.

 

[tigerfan1961]

North crazy to contemplate trading their future 1st.

If it is in the table, we should be in the hunt.

Mate, they have nothing else to trade to get back into this years draft. They’ve got 2, then 62! Rawlings has failed them big time trading out of a strong draft

 

[mrposhman]

re: North.

From round 1 to 11 (Bye Rd 12) - 0 wins, percentage was 55.8%
From round 13 to 24 - 3 wins (Suns the best team there - 13th, West Coast and Tigers the others), percentage 71.4%

That's a reasonable improvement.
2025 - players more physically ready for AFL, and they've traded for some senior depth.
I'm wary they'll jump up a lot faster than folks expect.

71% is still a horrible %.

Of those 12 games after the bye, 3 were against the Eagles and us, they won 2 and lost once. Take out the 3 games they played us, they won 1 out of 9 with a % of 62.7% and there were some almighty thrashings in there.

They'll improve on what they did this year, but I don't think they have a Hawks type jump. Hawks in 2023 won 7 out of 23 with a % just over 80%.

 

[tigerlove]

71% is still a horrible %.

Of those 12 games after the bye, 3 were against the Eagles and us, they won 2 and lost once. Take out the 3 games they played us, they won 1 out of 9 with a % of 62.7% and there were some almighty thrashings in there.

They'll improve on what they did this year, but I don't think they have a Hawks type jump. Hawks in 2023 won 7 out of 23 with a % just over 80%.

They were preety good overall last 12 games bar the last 2. Threw Pies game away and were well in the game for 4 other games that they lost. I think they will do alot better next year but still hard to see them getting the 11 games that would have placed you 12th to 14th on the ladder this year.

 

[Sintiger]

So which of those do you value higher than we would get from North?

Geelong - nope
Hawks F1 - nope
Bombers - probably not but is probably the best option, I doubt they trade Melbournes F1st, I'd have them as a slider this year, another top 5 pick IMO
Suns - Personally I don't think so, I reckon they will move up with better ball movement out of their backline, its easily their biggest issue right now

I just don't see a better option for us personally.

6, 11 and Geelong / Hawks F1 plus we lose 20
Or 2, Norths F1 and we keep 20

I'd be doing the latter every time.

What if it’s Melbourne’s F1 ?

It’s 1,6,10,11,18,23,24 and Melbourne’s FI
Or
1,2,10,18,20,23,24 and North’s FI

Is 6,11 and Melbourne’s F1 better than
2,20 and North’s F1 ??

Close call

 

[UKTiger]

I think I will leave the trading to Blair and company as they are the ones who will live or die by the sword. Mind you, it doesn't mean that this PRE speculation is not interesting and some have value.

 

[DavidSSS]

In contrast, I think this is outstanding business by North.

Pick #2 doesn't mean anywhere near as much to them as it does to us. That's the central idea to hold in your mind.

North will do this deal if they remain confident they get their first choice selection (likely Tauru).

The cream on the cake is they get another gun at #11.

Looking at the age profile of North's list, their time is now. As others have said, their F1 may end up being equivalent to anything from #5—#10 anyway.

Having dubiously coughed up pick #25, North wants to back into this draft.

Holding picks #6 and #11, obtaining their first choice target and selecting another jet at #11 is the way to do it.

Hard to see how the mooted deal isn't a win-win.

Excellent work by both clubs if it happens.

I think it does suit North, but it is also a great deal for us if true.

The thing is, different clubs have different priorities. I have no problem if this is good business for North, as long as it is good business for us then let's go.

DS

 

[Leysy Days]

So which of those do you value higher than we would get from North?

Geelong - nope
Hawks F1 - nope
Bombers - probably not but is probably the best option, I doubt they trade Melbournes F1st, I'd have them as a slider this year, another top 5 pick IMO
Suns - Personally I don't think so, I reckon they will move up with better ball movement out of their backline, its easily their biggest issue right now

I just don't see a better option for us personally.

6, 11 and Geelong / Hawks F1 plus we lose 20
Or 2, Norths F1 and we keep 20

I'd be doing the latter every time.

Why not both?

Over the two year period we don't lose a pick with the North trade.

Gives us 7 inside 30 this year and 3 next (including our f2).

We could then still do the latter i.e. what Turks talking about trading one of this years later picks for an F1 (or keep shuffling one back like this year).

Would give us 6 great picks this year and 4 next.

 

[tigerdell]

I think people are getting carried away with the reported depth of this draft.
My take on it is that the high end quality is typical, but the quality in the teens and 20s is higher than usual.
A top ten pick next year will give us access to a potentially very good player.
A top 3 pick gives a potential superstar.

I would trade 11 for their F1 straight up. Getting 2 for 6 is a big bonus.

100% B17
A deep and even draft doesnt actually mean pick 18 is comparable to p1.
It seems to have a very solid 20-35 , similar to 2017.


On the overall quality, I look at it that there isnt a Rioli so its not the very best of drafts.
But there is a son of a champion going #1 or thereabouts, who is similar to his brother who just won a norm smith. Its a decent high end!

 

[tigertim]

Listening to Roos on the Sacked podcast talking about how his philosophy is it’s better to have 2 pokers in the fire rather than 1 (he was referring to Melbourne trading the Josh Kelly pick for Dom Tyson and pick 9, Christian Salem, not our scenario). He admits it doesn’t always work but points that Salem went on to be a premiership player. Says 1 player alone won’t turn your club around and pointed to North recruiting JHF but losing him after 1 season.

 

[Tigermad2005]

Mate, they have nothing else to trade to get back into this years draft. They’ve got 2, then 62! Rawlings has failed them big time trading out of a strong draft

That is why I say stuff them and just let them use 2.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

So which of those do you value higher than we would get from North?

Geelong - nope
Hawks F1 - nope
Bombers - probably not but is probably the best option, I doubt they trade Melbournes F1st, I'd have them as a slider this year, another top 5 pick IMO
Suns - Personally I don't think so, I reckon they will move up with better ball movement out of their backline, its easily their biggest issue right now

I just don't see a better option for us personally.

6, 11 and Geelong / Hawks F1 plus we lose 20
Or 2, Norths F1 and we keep 20

I'd be doing the latter every time.

I would be trying to get North , Bombers and saints in that order and all 3 if possible

 

[tigerlove]

As you say depends who's F1, the Suns won't trade theirs back into this years draft. I'm not even sure if they have many list spots, but their aim is to load up for next years draft (remember they've delisted from an enlarged list, next year they are back to the same list size as everyone else). Bombers maybe, but I think people are over valuing what we will get with our picks like 20.

We are unlikely to be getting a top 10 next year with Pick 20, thats not happening. Remember Pick 20, will slide by at least 3, possibly 4, so will be Pick 23 or 24. Sure its a stronger draft but can't see anyone giving up a potential top 10 pick for a pick 23 or 24 in this years draft, would be wildly incomptent, meaning that we will be trading with possible finalists.

Out of those, Carlton don't have 1, maybe Hawks, Freo won't give theirs up, more likely to trade a pick from this year into next I reckon. Brisbane might need to trade something forward to get Marshall, but they won't overpay for it, its points value afterall, so not sure where that leaves us with options. Sydney? Maybe but they have academy players next year, as do Brissy which I think is why they are waiting to trade additional into 2024 until they see where Ashcroft is bid on, they will trade during the draft, as they have another possible top 5 midfielder next year.

I just don't see there being a plethora of options to get a top 10, with 1 of those later picks. Our best bet of having a really good future pick next year is North.

I agree. Why would Essendon swap their or what was Dees 2025 pick for this year's 20? Both are potential top 8 picks, maybe top 3. Would make zero sense. GC are all about a academy, it's their game plan, they'll be holding onto theirs for now and trade down next year. North is the only real option if they're desperate enough. Otherwise, we might look to push a pick to next year but it will be closer to like for like.

 

[mrposhman]

What if it’s Melbourne’s F1 ?

It’s 1,6,10,11,18,23,24 and Melbourne’s FI
Or
1,2,10,18,20,23,24 and North’s FI

Is 6,11 and Melbourne’s F1 better than
2,20 and North’s F1 ??

Close call

I'd probably push it back to you the other way. Why would Essendon do that trade? Pretty much a likely top 10, maybe top 5 pick, for pick 23 or 24 in this years draft.

I think there is a lot of over estimating of what we will get with our later picks, we won't be getting top 10 picks next year unless someone completely craps the bed that you are expecting to make finals.

The best chance IMO of getting a top draft pick in next years draft is this deal with Norths, otherwise its likely to be mid to late firsts next year 11-18 for our 23-24 this year (possibly with some late pick exchange to make it a bit more in our favour).

If we want a top 10 draft pick next year, we will be needing to give up a lot more than Pick 20