Trade Week - Richmond Only | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Trade Week - Richmond Only

I'd probably push it back to you the other way. Why would Essendon do that trade? Pretty much a likely top 10, maybe top 5 pick, for pick 23 or 24 in this years draft.

I think there is a lot of over estimating of what we will get with our later picks, we won't be getting top 10 picks next year unless someone completely craps the bed that you are expecting to make finals.

The best chance IMO of getting a top draft pick in next years draft is this deal with Norths, otherwise its likely to be mid to late firsts next year 11-18 for our 23-24 this year (possibly with some late pick exchange to make it a bit more in our favour).

If we want a top 10 draft pick next year, we will be needing to give up a lot more than Pick 20

Maybe. Thing is this draft is very even.

Take specific clubs out of it for this example. At say our pick 23, in this draft there will likely be teams that will have guys ranked at say 12 on their internal rankings still available. They will trade for 23 and be happy to give up collateral up to that internal mark to get that pick.

i.e. they will see it as getting pick 12 in. Not 23.

Combine that with it being viewed as a strong draft (pick 12 this year > equivalent in 25') we might well get more than most think.
 
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Maybe. Thing is this draft is very even.

Take specific clubs out of it for this example. At say our pick 23, in this draft there will likely be teams that will have guys ranked at say 12 on their internal rankings still available. They will trade for 23 and be happy to give up collateral up to that internal mark to get that pick.

i.e. they will see it as getting pick 12 in. Not 23.

Combine that with it being viewed as a strong draft (pick 12 this year > equivalent in 25') we might well get more than most think.

I don't doubt that, and said the same above, we are dealing in picks around 11-18 in 2025 for Pick 20 (23 or 24 in reality) but thats a fair way short of a top 10 pick.

Whats better?

6, 11 and losing 20 in this draft

Or 2, future top 5 pick, keep 20 but lose 11?

We could still potentially trade out Pick 20 or 23 if we got ripping offers in, but I don't see anyone offering up what North are apparently offering up. If Essendon want to get back into this draft, they may offer up their 1st (they won't offer up Melbournes IMO) but they will want more than Pick 20, probably at least 2 of those early 20's picks, we may still like that, but its still not the equivalent offer we are being provided by North.

Its not often that these scenarios pop up, where the benefit to both clubs is largely equal. With the age of their mids (I think there is a real chance they know they are losing LDU), but need to get the young forwards in to complement the Sheezel, Wardlaw, McKercher, Powell group and they have a real opportunity to get that this year, another year down and those players continue to get older, the talls won't hit their straps for 3-4 years at their best, so I think North know they have to strike now and it has to be talls. If LDU leaves next year, they add another mid then.

For us, it has a great chance of supercharging our rebuild.

Doesn't mean we couldn't do the other trades if we think they are valuable enough.
 
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I don't doubt that, and said the same above, we are dealing in picks around 11-18 in 2025 for Pick 20 (23 or 24 in reality) but thats a fair way short of a top 10 pick.

Whats better?

6, 11 and losing 20 in this draft

Or 2, future top 5 pick, keep 20 but lose 11?

We could still potentially trade out Pick 20 or 23 if we got ripping offers in, but I don't see anyone offering up what North are apparently offering up. If Essendon want to get back into this draft, they may offer up their 1st (they won't offer up Melbournes IMO) but they will want more than Pick 20, probably at least 2 of those early 20's picks, we may still like that, but its still not the equivalent offer we are being provided by North.

Its not often that these scenarios pop up, where the benefit to both clubs is largely equal. With the age of their mids (I think there is a real chance they know they are losing LDU), but need to get the young forwards in to complement the Sheezel, Wardlaw, McKercher, Powell group and they have a real opportunity to get that this year, another year down and those players continue to get older, the talls won't hit their straps for 3-4 years at their best, so I think North know they have to strike now and it has to be talls. If LDU leaves next year, they add another mid then.

For us, it has a great chance of supercharging our rebuild.

Doesn't mean we couldn't do the other trades if we think they are valuable enough.

Only thing would say. Dangerous to be pigeon holing what picks will be worth next year.

You only need to look at ladder predictions in media and here, then see how far away they are when looked back on.

North might rise next year. We've seen us and Collingwood (twice) trade away picks they thought would be late first round picks, that didn't turn out that way.

It's extremely likely someone who finished top 4 this year will miss the finals. There nearly always is.
 
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If we're chasing Cadman.
Be handy to have an xtra top 5 pick next year.
Sharp & Cadman.
And the cherry on top is we still have a 1st rnd in 26.
 
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It does look that we'll trade out a 2024R1 for a 2025R1. There will be plenty of bidders for all our picks and trading say any pick #20 on into next year makes sense in terms of managing player age profile and spreading risk.

We'll be canvassing right now and surely have been for quite a while.

There will be plenty of bidders and contingencies. That's why we might be waiting to do business on draft night. How did Gerald slip to #20? (Because nobody else likes him coz he's NFG.) And we sell the pick. Maybe a SOS will pay us massive overs for a Stocker. They don't grow on trees.
 
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I'd probably push it back to you the other way. Why would Essendon do that trade? Pretty much a likely top 10, maybe top 5 pick, for pick 23 or 24 in this years draft.

I think there is a lot of over estimating of what we will get with our later picks, we won't be getting top 10 picks next year unless someone completely craps the bed that you are expecting to make finals.

The best chance IMO of getting a top draft pick in next years draft is this deal with Norths, otherwise its likely to be mid to late firsts next year 11-18 for our 23-24 this year (possibly with some late pick exchange to make it a bit more in our favour).

If we want a top 10 draft pick next year, we will be needing to give up a lot more than Pick 20
we will see ...
 
3 would be great

Ideally #2 + F1 North for #6 + #11
#23 for Bombers
#24 fir St Kilda , Geelong , Hawks
So you'd want to cut our draft hand down to 1 - 2 - 10 - 18 - 20 for this year. Reckon that's way to skinny for what we need and the evenness of this years draft.
 
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So you'd want to cut our draft hand down to 1 - 2 - 10 - 18 - 20 for this year. Reckon that's way to skinny for what we need and the evenness of this years draft.
3 mids and 2 kpp and take another either psd or Rookie
Sam Davidson would be nice to get

5 1st rounders this year and 4 next years
 
So you'd want to cut our draft hand down to 1 - 2 - 10 - 18 - 20 for this year. Reckon that's way to skinny for what we need and the evenness of this years draft.
I want at least 6 this year. Lots of spots to fix. Deep draft year's the time to do it. Unless we're getting 3 inside the top 8 next year, I'm not big on trading too many out.
 
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3 mids and 2 kpp and take another either psd or Rookie
Sam Davidson would be nice to get

5 1st rounders this year and 4 next years
Sounds great, but I'm not sure you'd advance picks 23 n 24 into the early picks of next years draft. Reckon clubs would want some large sweeteners to risk a pick around 6 to 12 next year for 23 or 24 this year. Doubt there'd be anything more valuable lateish first round next year than late first round this year.
 
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Sounds great, but I'm not sure you'd advance picks 23 n 24 into the early picks of next years draft. Reckon clubs would want some large sweeteners to risk a pick around 6 to 12 next year for 23 or 24 this year. Doubt there'd be anything more valuable lateish first round next year than late first round this year.
My feeling is that if we do any trading of picks pre draft it will only be for North's pick 2 and I have no idea if we will do that. You would suspect the deal will have to be a good one.
I reckon we will go into the draft night with 7 or 8 picks and only trade picks on the night if the deal is a compelling one. That way we will know who is still available and be able to make a more informed judgement.
Being prepared to use all our 2024 picks gives us maximum flexibility to say no, we are the ones in the driver's seat because we have the picks others want.
Blair and his team are going to be very busy that night for sure.
 
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Sounds great, but I'm not sure you'd advance picks 23 n 24 into the early picks of next years draft. Reckon clubs would want some large sweeteners to risk a pick around 6 to 12 next year for 23 or 24 this year. Doubt there'd be anything more valuable lateish first round next year than late first round this year.

This is the way I see it. The only chance of getting a top 10 pick next year is Norths offer IMO (or trade out 10 or 11 for 1 next year). Trading out the 20's picks for top 10's, unless we gamble on someone sliding out of the finals race (and not sure which one I'd gamble on).

If its a 12-20 pick next year, I'd rather take the picks this year, at least we know this years draft is deep, and has players of the type we would need in that range (ie. kpp's)
 
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This is the way I see it. The only chance of getting a top 10 pick next year is Norths offer IMO
Only almost certain chance yes.

There are 15 clubs who would say they can make finals in 2025 and 7 of them won’t. If you miss finals you get a top 10 pick, before bids anyway.

It’s a judgement in the end. Going to be a fun watch