There’s never a guarantee either way. Draft “experts” will say stronger or weaker drafts. High end early picks then drops off. Or even draft and deep.That's not proven, weaker draft, won't know until after the event. A year's worth of growth left in next year's crop and this year's crop yet to prove themselves in any way at all at AFL level.
Projections are always fraught with some guesswork. Players developing early, some late.
It still comes down to an eye for talent.
Some say this draft is stronger and deeper compared to next years. Hence why clubs are scrambling for picks this year. But others are happy to trade into future picks. But they’re mainly clubs with f/s or academy picks looking to spread their picks out.
There’s never an exact science or proven methodology that guarantees a particular selection. Play the odds that the higher talent is in the early stages of a draft. That’s a general rule of thumb. But there are many exceptions to that rule.