The grand final

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

I thought you liked older teams? Same teams could be there again unless their average age drops dramatically.

There's "older than the opposition" and there's plain "old". All teams have a ceiling beyond which performance starts to decline, e.g. Brisbane 27.50 v Port 27.01 in the 2004 GF. Port in a sense are still recovering, while Brisbane's entered the football wilderness. If Hawthorn, North and Freo were to send the same 22 around next year I'd bet a year's pay on each to regress (i.e. fewer wins).

On the other hand, it's also very hard to contend when the team comes back in age from one year to the next (e.g. > 0.5 years, a significant decrease). The last team to win a flag doing this was the Crows in 1997, when Blight arrived and swept out several veterans (McDermott/McGuinness/A.Jarman/Anderson/Weidemann). Only 1/35 teams (Collingwood 2012) has finished top four in the past 15 years when declining significantly in age from the previous season.

Clubs are a lot smarter now regarding list management and those with old teams will be in the same market for players as Richmond, i.e. quality players with plenty of miles left on the clock, ready to step straight into the 22, the younger the better. There simply aren't enough good ones to go around and sustain the status quo.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

There's "older than the opposition" and there's plain "old". All teams have a ceiling beyond which performance starts to decline, e.g. Brisbane 27.50 v Port 27.01 in the 2004 GF. Port in a sense are still recovering, while Brisbane's entered the football wilderness. If Hawthorn, North and Freo were to send the same 22 around next year I'd bet a year's pay on each to regress (i.e. fewer wins).

On the other hand, it's also very hard to contend when the team comes back in age from one year to the next (e.g. > 0.5 years, a significant decrease). The last team to win a flag doing this was the Crows in 1997, when Blight arrived and swept out several veterans (McDermott/McGuinness/A.Jarman/Anderson/Weidemann). Only 1/35 teams (Collingwood 2012) has finished top four in the past 15 years when declining significantly in age from the previous season.

Clubs are a lot smarter now regarding list management and those with old teams will be in the same market for players as Richmond, i.e. quality players with plenty of miles left on the clock, ready to step straight into the 22, the younger the better. There simply aren't enough good ones to go around and sustain the status quo.

Good post. I'd certainly agree on Haw, Freo, NM. Cracks are appearing in the Hawthorn armour. Though still thought of as the best team in the comp, the aura of invincibility is being chipped away. Next stage is that they will inevitably go into decline. Perhaps not a fall off the cliff type decline, but maybe track similarly to how Geelong did before them. Unfortunately, as much as I hate them, may well squeeze one more Premiership (this weekend) - although this certainly isn't assured. But would suspect a bit of a changing of the guard next year.

 

[Motown]

Mo, does this mean you pay some premium price and may not get the GF ticket? Do you get something during the season for your extra $ or is simply a ticket in the GF raffle?

I've got a premium membership which gets a reserved seat, entry to one of those fancy rooms and other perks. It also guarantees me a GF seat if we play. I just register when they tell me for about $5, then pay the sticker price once seats are allocated.

 

[dcstar]

.........
Clubs are a lot smarter now regarding list management and those with old teams will be in the same market for players as Richmond, i.e. quality players with plenty of miles left on the clock, ready to step straight into the 22, the younger the better. There simply aren't enough good ones to go around and sustain the status quo.

Factor in the significant overall drop in the quality of the available "Talent Pool" over the past decades along with the dilution caused by sharing them among 18 teams and it is way harder to quickly find new players that are more talented than the ones you already have.

The "smarts" are now a significant factor and a small difference in quality of list management will probably result in a large difference on the field.

 

[dcstar]

Fares departing Perth today and tomorrow are just under $2,000 return. Cheaper than flying over later this week, but still astronomically high for a domestic flight. ...........

I actually had a seat booked leaving Perth last Sunday at 10AM (yes, I was an optimist hoping Richmond would have made the Prelim...) and was willing to transfer it to a Perth footy supporter at the cost I paid (basically $600), but I got no response from my offer on the Bigfooty forum so I had it credited back to me.

I tried to do the right thing for a genuine footy fan as I know how much these last minute bookings can cost you to follow your team.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Factor in the significant overall drop in the quality of the available "Talent Pool" over the past decades along with the dilution caused by sharing them among 18 teams and it is way harder to quickly find new players that are more talented than the ones you already have.

The "smarts" are now a significant factor and a small difference in quality of list management will probably result in a large difference on the field.

Interesting post David C. Just wanting to clarify what you mean by overall drop in talent pool? Are you suggesting that there are less young males participating in Aust Rules Football than in previous eras? I've sometimes thought intuitively that this may be the case. With more sporting/recreational options. Other sports that have grown in popularity from a previously low base. More kids living sedentary lifestyles etc. But have to admit, have never looked at the figures to know for sure. Just from observation though, country footy (a traditional major source of talent) in many regions is not what it once was - with a much smaller proportion of the young population living in the country now.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Interesting post David C. Just wanting to clarify what you mean by overall drop in talent pool? Are you suggesting that there are less young males participating in Aust Rules Football than in previous eras? I've sometimes thought intuitively that this may be the case. With more sporting/recreational options. Other sports that have grown in popularity from a previously low base. More kids living sedentary lifestyles etc. But have to admit, have never looked at the figures to know for sure. Just from observation though, country footy (a traditional major source of talent) in many regions is not what it once was - with a much smaller proportion of the young population living in the country now.

Reckon you might have answered your own question Panthera. All the above reasons will have steadily chipped away at the pool of playing talent over the years. Plus the growth of the AFL beastie has severely sucked the life out of much of the second n third tier competitions. There's strict pathways to be followed nowadays if youngsters hope to enter the elite comp, n very few talents from outside those pathways rate consideration.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Reckon you might have answered your own question Panthera. All the above reasons will have steadily chipped away at the pool of playing talent over the years. Plus the growth of the AFL beastie has severely sucked the life out of much of the second n third tier competitions. There's strict pathways to be followed nowadays if youngsters hope to enter the elite comp, n very few talents from outside those pathways rate consideration.

I suppose it all gets a bit blurred when we hear the AFL sprouting all sorts of things about participation being at an all time high. But everything one observes at a local level seems to suggest grass roots footy is in continual decline. Terminal in some rural areas. And even suburban footy seems so flat and often has an aura of aimlessness to it.

Could it be they just fudge the numbers with Auskickers whom may have a bit of a go for a couple of years of their life as little tackers (particularly when you count QLD & NSW which were practically non existent participation bases in the past)? I wonder if there are stats available which isolate and compare adult participation numbers between eras? And would the AFL actually release these numbers if they do exist.

 

[YinnarTiger]

The three field umpires from the Hawthorn Fremantle prelim final have been rewarded with the Grand Final appointment on Saturday.

 

[uhuh uhuh]

I hate Hawthorn
I hate West Coast

But a win for the Hawks is bad for the AFL, because there is every chance they will be back there next year. Free agency and the expansion clubs have effectivly created a situation where players want to go to the strong clubs killing any chance of middle or lower clubs recruiting A grade talent.

Richmond have been able to pull a few good b+ graders (Grigg, Houli, Maric) but we can’t get a treloar and may not pick up anyone this trade period.

I hawthorn stays up. Collingwood and Geelong move up (possible) and westcoast improve their list with Redden, Freo with Benell and Mcarthy, Sydney with Llenberger, I cannot see how the lower clubs can catch up.

West Coast marginally

 

[Baloo]

I hate Hawthorn
I hate West Coast

But a win for the Hawks is bad for the AFL, because there is every chance they will be back there next year.

I think the opposite. WCE are a bit like the 2008 Hawka. Maybe too early but they are here for a while. HKS stared showing cracks this year and they will start dropping like Gellong did.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

WCE are a bit like the 2008 Hawka. Maybe too early but they are here for a while.

West Coast has snuck up after missing the finals for a couple of years, but they're right in the window, age-wise. Saturday's 22 could well be the oldest ever Eagles team.

Nothing between them in last quarter performance over the year:
Hawthorn 105.75 for, 58.69 against
West Coast 103.75 for, 58.53 against

Even so, I reckon this West Coast team in its prime will run over the top of the ageing Hawks. HT/FT double at $7...

 

[DeathNinthandTaxes]

Road trip would be great fun!
I heard on the news one Eagles fan has booked an airfare from Perth to Auckland via Melbourne, which will work out much cheaper than flying to Melb direct. He is obviously getting off at Tullamarine and skipping the 2nd leg of the trip. You can't make this stuff up!

Also people going via singapore and Bali because its cheaper than direct. Madness!

 

[Brodders17]

West Coast has snuck up after missing the finals for a couple of years, but they're right in the window, age-wise. Saturday's 22 could well be the oldest ever Eagles team.

Nothing between them in last quarter performance over the year:
Hawthorn 105.75 for, 58.69 against
West Coast 103.75 for, 58.53 against

Even so, I reckon this West Coast team in its prime will run over the top of the ageing Hawks. HT/FT double at $7...

in the prelim WCE had the average youngest age by over a year. they are nearly 2 years younger than the hawks.
the other point of note is that Priddis is the only Eagle over 30. in theory they should not fall away in the coming years cos of age.
on the other hand the hawks will lose Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Hale and Lake (just off the top of my head) in the next year or 2.
The Roos will lose Petrie, Harvey, Del Santo and Waite.
The Dockers Sandi, McPharlin and Pavlich.

but we probably said the same about the power last year. no guarantees.

Dont know about this week. the Eagles probably 'deserve' to win, but the Hawks can play very good football, and have shown they know how to turn up when they need to.

 

[Ian4]

everyone is talking about age profile, but no one is talking about the factor that will hurt the older hawks... the forecast for 28 on Saturday. 3 trips to Perth in the past 2 months and no week off during the finals almost makes the eagles favourites in my book.

 

[Rosy]

Good to hear Ian. I'm usually happier barracking for the underdogs. Go Hawks!

 

[tigersnake]

Good to hear Ian. I'm usually happier barracking for the underdogs. Go Hawks!

Hawks were clear favourites last time I looked, dunno why though. I think WC will win, but I don't care.

 

[TigerForce]

everyone is talking about age profile, but no one is talking about the factor that will hurt the older hawks... the forecast for 28 on Saturday. 3 trips to Perth in the past 2 months and no week off during the finals almost makes the eagles favourites in my book.

Temperature could be a factor too, as I heard Buzz on SEN say that most of their later games were at night whereas WC have been playing in warmer days.

 

[TigerForce]

Oh no!! Quick, call Angry Anderson for the 24th anniversary.

Simon Legg ‏@Simon_Legg · 3h3 hours ago
Can confirm that the Batmobile has arrived at the @MCG! Cc @GerardWhateley, @Robbo_heraldsun... #AFL360

 

[Chiang Mai Tiger]

The three field umpires from the Hawthorn Fremantle prelim final have been rewarded with the Grand Final appointment on Saturday.

I reckon Rosebury was rewarded for his outstanding effort to kill off our premiership hopes in the last quarter of the elimination final.