Here's my thinking about a situation that may work to our favour.
There are at least 13 clubs with every reason to believe they are in a premiership window. 12 currently have from 36-44 points. That's incredibly even. This breeds over confidence, impatience, desperation for success. Some will think "It's now or never. What must we do to take the next step?"
(I would not be writing this post if the competition was being totally dominated by 4-5 teams - the situation would be entirely different, especially the levels of confidence within the lower clubs.)
What did the top club do to take the next step? Went out and snagged Grundy. For Sydney, maybe that's the icing on the cake. Clearly they thought so.
At season's end, many other clubs will be looking for their own 'icing on the cake'. Demand will be huge. But supply will be limited. And when demand exceeds supply, you get scarcity, creating a sellers' market. Which means some buyers will have to pay 'overs' to get what they want.
So, how can we make the greed and desperation of other clubs work in our favour? When those clubs look at our list, how much 'icing on the cake' will they see? And what will they pay for it?
Richmond doesn't need 'icing' at present, as we no longer have a cake to put it on. We firstly need to bake a new cake.
In simple terms, how can Richmond help 3-4 other clubs improve their 2025 chances at a flag, while simultaneously improving our 2030 chances?
Let me put it another way - if some bloke told you at the start of 2017 that Townsend, Caddy, Graham, Grigg and Houli would play important roles in helping us win a flag that year, would you have agreed with him, or booked him in at a psychiatrist?
It's all about value, or, rather,
perceived value, and it's not our perception that counts; it's how other clubs perceive the potential contribution of players like Short, Graham, Baker, Rioli, etc. It's the value those other clubs perceive that will have some knocking on our door.
So, in a sellers' market, don't be surprised if we get involved in more trades than we originally thought. It largely depends on:
- The desperation (or foolishness) of other clubs
- The individual ambitions and wishes of certain Tiger players
- How savvy our recruiting dept is
Watch this space.