Pics 15 & 26 ND 2011 - Who should we pick?

[Lennox Street]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

Can add Sidebottom to the list with his ten goals in the 2008 TAC Grand Final.

But those guys only went up in the estimation of the media and the public who hadn't known them. Sidebottom had already been in the AIS, and Vic Country, and an All-Australian. Daisy Thomas was also a junior All-Australian and team captain. A 10-goal haul may have moved Sidebottom a bit, but Greene has been getting 30 touches every week and was the Vic Metro MVP. I doubt any club saw him do anything they hadn't seen before and they'd have him at the same spot they already had him.

 

[Scoop]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

Quick question for u SCOOP seems u are pretty knowledgeable on the draft. Quite often we hear a draft is weak etc then in hindsight it wasn't. Is that because it takes a while through the year for some players to emerge. eg. Fletcher Roberts today.

It gets called weak because it's not a easy crop to pick from. After pick 5, it is a lottery. Think we can agree that the top will be some mix of Patton, Coniglio, Wingard, Tyson, Longer. Then the easy answer is to say it's a weak draft so that the public lowers perceptions. It's the clubs way of setting the agenda if a player doesn't work out. This isn't a weak draft. It's very even. As you say in hindsight people will look at the draft and wonder how Daniel Markworth went at 30+, how Brandon Ellis went at +20 and so on. Reckon that if you weren't on the radar at all before TAC cup finals then you have left your run to late in the main draft. Maybe as a rookie.

And.... do you think where some players go influences the perceptions of a draft?

Yep. Look at the 2003 draft, Sam Fisher went at 55. That doesn't make it a deep draft. It's one of the most terrible 10's in the last ten years. Picks 21-32 are a some of the most shocking second rounders ever. Then you have Jed Adcock and another seven shockers. One out of 19 picks could be called a success. I think in this draft picks 20-40 will produce many more footballers then that.

 

[tigs2010]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

It gets called weak because it's not a easy crop to pick from. After pick 5, it is a lottery. Think we can agree that the top will be some mix of Patton, Coniglio, Wingard, Tyson, Longer. Then the easy answer is to say it's a weak draft so that the public lowers perceptions. It's the clubs way of setting the agenda if a player doesn't work out. This isn't a weak draft. It's very even. As you say in hindsight people will look at the draft and wonder how Daniel Markworth went at 30+, how Brandon Ellis went at +20 and so on. Reckon that if you weren't on the radar at all before TAC cup finals then you have left your run to late in the main draft. Maybe as a rookie.

Yep. Look at the 2003 draft, Sam Fisher went at 55. That doesn't make it a deep draft. It's one of the most terrible 10's in the last ten years. Picks 21-32 are a some of the most shocking second rounders ever. Then you have Jed Adcock and another seven shockers. One out of 19 picks could be called a success. I think in this draft picks 20-40 will produce many more footballers then that.

So realistically it comes down to how much faith our club has in our recruiters as to how many picks we take and how good our recruiters are to find some good players.

 

[Scoop]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

So realistically it comes down to how much faith our club has in our recruiters as to how many picks we take and how good our recruiters are to find some good players.

Yep. I bet Geelong and Collingwood still walk away with two or three players from this draft.

 

[tigs2010]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

Yep. I bet Geelong and Collingwood still walk away with two or three players from this draft.

I have a sneaky suspicion we will too. Hoping we do player for player trades. Keep our picks. If other clubs treat it as a weak draft and take only a few picks and rookie upgrades then our picks become higher and higher.

 

[Uncle]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

Uncle where do you have Greene going in the draft?

I thought he would have been a 1st rounder now I reckon he is definately a 1st rounder but where does he fit into the GWS draft?

I'd only be guessing but I'll say around the mid to late 1st round,like last year with GC its all about how GWS goes about it IMO.

SCOOP's summary on this years draft is akin to what I was thinking,its not a weak draft its just going to be a lot more even after the 1st dozen & we're
really going to have to have to put a lot of faith in our scouts/recruiters to strike gold with our later selection especially our rookie picks.

 

[tigs2010]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

I thought he would have been a 1st rounder now I reckon he is definately a 1st rounder but where does he fit into the GWS draft?

I'd only be guessing but I'll say around the mid to late 1st round,like last year with GC its all about how GWS goes about it IMO.

SCOOP's summary on this years draft is akin to what I was thinking,its not a weak draft its just going to be a lot more even after the 1st dozen & we're
really going to have to have to put a lot of faith in our scouts/recruiters to strike gold with our later selection especially our rookie picks.

If Greene is gone maybe a Kavanagh or Grigg slides with a bit of luck? The more guys like this putting their hands up the better for us. I really hope we don't go throwing away picks in trades. Do u think there is any chance Morris is only a 4th round price? 22yo backman aren't usually a high priority at draft time.

 

[Scoop]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

Uncle where do you have Greene going in the draft?

Just on Greene, I have a horrible feeling he will some how end up at Geelong.

 

[Disco08]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

Trade their compo pick to GWS for one of their earlyish first rounders maybe?

 

[Barnzy]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

Just on Greene, I have a horrible feeling he will some how end up at Geelong.

It's amazing how Geelong keep picking up good footballers no matter what picks they have. Wish I had that confidence in our recruiters.

 

[RedanTiger]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

But those guys only went up in the estimation of the media and the public who hadn't known them. Sidebottom had already been in the AIS, and Vic Country, and an All-Australian. Daisy Thomas was also a junior All-Australian and team captain. A 10-goal haul may have moved Sidebottom a bit, but Greene has been getting 30 touches every week and was the Vic Metro MVP. I doubt any club saw him do anything they hadn't seen before and they'd have him at the same spot they already had him.

Annie, I understand and agree with you to a large extent about recruiters having already judged players abilities but there is still the fact that playing well in finals ticks another box.

Sidebottom ticks the boxes of AIS, Vic Country and AA and................. ability to perform under pressure in a GF (TAC). Same with Daisy.
It's one of those queries about players - How does he go in the big occasions?
Been said a lot around this time each year but it's true - how you perform in the finals really defines you as a player.

 

[RedanTiger]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

It's amazing how Geelong keep picking up good footballers no matter what picks they have. Wish I had that confidence in our recruiters.

Yeah Jimmy, scary when you look at that 2009 draft for Geelong.

17 Daniel Menzel
28 Mitchell Duncan
40 Allan Christenson
42 Nathan Vardy

Four really good senior players in that draft alone not to mention Laidler who they upgraded and then flicked or Pods as a rookie 50 pick.
Ouch if only.... :-\

 

[goose]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

If Greene is gone maybe a Kavanagh or Grigg slides with a bit of luck? The more guys like this putting their hands up the better for us. I really hope we don't go throwing away picks in trades. Do u think there is any chance Morris is only a 4th round price? 22yo backman aren't usually a high priority at draft time.

Not sold on Kav - exciting but has had huge soft tissue issuses which is a worry for a kid. Grigg would be nice but the crows wont let a home grown kid get passed their 1st pick especially after being burnt by gunston. Alex woodward is another one I like - most people have him early 2nd round but has huge upside. Tough as, elite overhead, good kick.

 

[spook]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

I'll back FJ to pick a good 'un.

 

[Scoop]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

Alex woodward is another one I like - most people have him early 2nd round but has huge upside. Tough as, elite overhead, good kick.

Woodward is one I am very high on and someone who I think can play a lot of football at AFL level. Has huge leadership traits. I have him late second round but in this draft it is hard to pinpoint. Another I am very keen on in the Woodward mould is Doug Morris.

 

[tigs2010]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

Woodward is one I am very high on and someone who I think can play a lot of football at AFL level. Has huge leadership traits. I have him late second round but in this draft it is hard to pinpoint. Another I am very keen on in the Woodward mould is Doug Morris.

Where do u see Waldhuter SCOOP? Was a bit disappointing at this years champs? Would u take him at our 2nd?

 

[Scoop]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

Where do u see Waldhuter SCOOP? Was a bit disappointing at this years champs? Would u take him at our 2nd?

He attacks the footy in tight. Is a a hunter in tight and tackles really well. At the same time he can ran & carry the footy. He is always looking to handball and has the same thing as Cotchin, holds onto the ball till the last second to release the player into space. He is a very good kick but he looks to handball first. Long and low. Not elite but very good. He has played some good footy in the SANFL. 2nd to 3rd rounder is about right.

 

[amcre]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

They have vision up on AFL.com of each player now.

I hadn't seen any vision of McKenzie but he had been talked up quite a bit as an option for us @14. Have only seen very limited vision but he looks like he has shocking pace...can anyone confirm this?? Great kick by the looks of things but I don't think a player can afford to be that slow in todays modern game. I would steer clear of anyone who can't run away from an opponent and give themselves time to dispose of the footy.

 

[tigertigertigertiger]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

They have vision up on AFL.com of each player now.

I hadn't seen any vision of McKenzie but he had been talked up quite a bit as an option for us @14. Have only seen very limited vision but he looks like he has shocking pace...can anyone confirm this?? Great kick by the looks of things but I don't think a player can afford to be that slow in todays modern game. I would steer clear of anyone who can't run away from an opponent and give themselves time to dispose of the footy.

cotchin/martin are not super quick....

 

[Barnzy]

Re: Pic 14 ND 2011 - Who should we pic?

cotchin/martin are not super quick....

Martin is quick. Just has deceptive pace. Did a 2.89 or something in the 20m sprint. He has explosive acceleration though which allows him to burst out of packs and get free in traffic. Cotch also has this accelaration but not on Martin's level.

That burst of acceleration is more important in football than top end speed anyways. You rarely get more than 5 seconds with the football at a time. If McKenzie has that he will be fine, if he doesn't then his decision making will need to be top notch to compensate a little bit.