Vickery turned into Bolton, who will hopefully turn into someone as good as those 2.
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Pick 29: Shai Bolton
- Thread starter puregreen
- Start date
Blair needs to go in there with this written down, and say - if you were use, would you trade these 2 for 1 Shai Bolton?
It actually doesn't look too bad if it was 11 and 18, but reality is, it won't be 11 and 18, it'll more likely be 14 and 21.
So 11 and 18's for the last 10 drafts:
2014 - Duggan and Heeney
2015 - Milera and Gresham
2016 - Florent and Powell-Pepper
2017 - Bonar and Starcevich
2018 - Caldwell and Duursma
2019 - Flanders and Georgiades
2020 - Pedlar and Angwin
2021 - Wanganeen-Milera and Sheldrick
2022 - Hollands and Weddle
2023 - O'Sullivan and Wilson
In most cases there, there is a very good player and a good player but still a few duds amongst them.
But look at 14 and 21:
2014 - Lever and Goddard
2015 - Hipwood and McKay
2016 - Perryman and Hayward
2017 - Ling and Allen
2018 - Hately and Smith
2019 - Bergman and Dow
2020 - Chapman and Bowey
2021 - Chesser and Johnson
2022 - Hewett and Jones
2023 - Rogers and Edwards
Rough as guts if you keep the accumulated 2 players vs 1 Shai Bolton. Not 1 list manager in the AFL would say that in general the accumulation of 2 players is worth 1 Shai Bolton when looking at the 14 and 21 list.
It actually doesn't look too bad if it was 11 and 18, but reality is, it won't be 11 and 18, it'll more likely be 14 and 21.
So 11 and 18's for the last 10 drafts:
2014 - Duggan and Heeney
2015 - Milera and Gresham
2016 - Florent and Powell-Pepper
2017 - Bonar and Starcevich
2018 - Caldwell and Duursma
2019 - Flanders and Georgiades
2020 - Pedlar and Angwin
2021 - Wanganeen-Milera and Sheldrick
2022 - Hollands and Weddle
2023 - O'Sullivan and Wilson
In most cases there, there is a very good player and a good player but still a few duds amongst them.
But look at 14 and 21:
2014 - Lever and Goddard
2015 - Hipwood and McKay
2016 - Perryman and Hayward
2017 - Ling and Allen
2018 - Hately and Smith
2019 - Bergman and Dow
2020 - Chapman and Bowey
2021 - Chesser and Johnson
2022 - Hewett and Jones
2023 - Rogers and Edwards
Rough as guts if you keep the accumulated 2 players vs 1 Shai Bolton. Not 1 list manager in the AFL would say that in general the accumulation of 2 players is worth 1 Shai Bolton when looking at the 14 and 21 list.
And, this is the point. When Freo or anyone else says they are offering 11 and 18 the first reply should be - no you're not, it's 14 and 21.
The way picks are devalued has to be taken into account, they can't offer 11 and 18 if they don't have those picks any more.
DS
The picks are still currently listed at 10 - 11 - 18 on the draft boards. What happens with F/S and academy bids on draft night is fluid n can't be pre ordained, just guesstimated.
I think Shai is the one we should hold onto if the offer is only 10 or 11 and 18. Pick 6 plus a sweetner is good value for Danny. The club should be able to put good support around his family if he stays. We don't need to sell him for unders. It should be 10 and 11 or he plays for the Tiges next year.
Not sure if it’s been mentioned but:
Freo give: 10,11,18
Tigers give : Bolton and 14 (bakes pick)
We slide 4 picks…. But get 10,11….
DumBell saves face - with his “strong” proposal , Bolton gets to WA and then
either:
1) we pick up Bo Allen at 11 just to rub it in their faces…..
Or
2) trade with Wet Coke for 3……
And the cross town rival gets Allen….
Even better!
Regards,
Stan
Freo give: 10,11,18
Tigers give : Bolton and 14 (bakes pick)
We slide 4 picks…. But get 10,11….
DumBell saves face - with his “strong” proposal , Bolton gets to WA and then
either:
1) we pick up Bo Allen at 11 just to rub it in their faces…..
Or
2) trade with Wet Coke for 3……
And the cross town rival gets Allen….
Even better!
Regards,
Stan
But there is the dimension of time. Premiership windows.
14 and 21 is clearly not enough but whatever we end up getting will shore up our next flag chances.
Bolton staying will not.
I like the trading of picks part.
I had us useing pick 18 in a deal with wce for pick 3. Baker and 18 and they keep 14 for pick 3 and a pick around 30 odd.
I didn’t go into the Wet Coke trade bc it’s the AA $hai thread but….
still could but it could look like
WC: Bakes, 11, 18 for Tigers : 3 and 23
Freo: Shai and 14
WC: Bakes, 11 and 18
Tigers: 3, 10, 23
Haven’t thought about 3 much though as it dilutes our chances with Berry, Lindsay etc.
Regards,
Stan
It really annoys me hearing opposition fans say "but those players weren't in the open pool, it doesn't change anything", but it does. They make 1 point, which is relatively valid, but then want value for those picks, as if those players were available.
Eg. if someone is selling Pick 2, but all of Picks 2 and 9 will be taken by a mass group of academy . father sons, why would any club assume that Pick 2 has the value of a pick 2. Sure you get "the 2nd best player in the open pool", but that still makes them the 10th best pick in that draft.
It may dilute or deny us one pick in the teens.. The flip side is it really gives us a shot at
1 Lalor, 3 Either Draper or Fos, which would be a dream start to the draft.
Most fascinating ( never used that word before , feel a little smarter now) trade prospect I can remember is Bolton , I’ve no doubt he’ll star for Freo , however I’m not unhappy at all his moving on . Spook bought up his very good consistent B & F finishes over the past 4 years , I think he finished 4th or 5th each year , that’s a bloody good footballer to do that , however I see that as the problem with Bolton as a Tiger on the position we are now in , when he’s on he gets maximum votes , when he’s not he offers zilch in fact I think he has a negative impact on his teammates , he’s half assed efforts and selfish football is not why we became a super club again it’s the opposite.
Anyway back to getting Bolton to Freo , imho he’s actual worth is ethier a top 5 pick or 10 and 18 , he’s potential is 4 first rounders and Freo would be mad not to pay overs for him as he could well be the difference between their club not winning their first flag and never winning one .
Lots of contradictions and that’s the way I see Bolton the footballer, one thing I doubt is he’d do the hard yards needed to help us rebuild , I’m happy to take what we get , another 3 years to stay committed to the club that gave you everything is not a lot to ask when you can go home ad be happy for the next 50 years after footy
Anyway back to getting Bolton to Freo , imho he’s actual worth is ethier a top 5 pick or 10 and 18 , he’s potential is 4 first rounders and Freo would be mad not to pay overs for him as he could well be the difference between their club not winning their first flag and never winning one .
Lots of contradictions and that’s the way I see Bolton the footballer, one thing I doubt is he’d do the hard yards needed to help us rebuild , I’m happy to take what we get , another 3 years to stay committed to the club that gave you everything is not a lot to ask when you can go home ad be happy for the next 50 years after footy
Hold onto your hats… but there is a very measured and balanced story on the afl site about why Shai is vital to freo.
