Motown said:
Honest question - why exactly would FA exacerbate the situation?
GC have free agency available to them now. If the internet chatter is to be believed they have used it to chuck money at Gary Ablett, money that Geelong haven't any hope in hell of matching. What can they do to build a fence around him? Get him money from somewhere else, what else can they do? The old '"stay with your mates and win another flag" won't cut it if an extra half a mill a year for four years is on the line.
Chris Judd wanted to leave WC a few years ago. Which club did he go to, the one that offered WC the best deal, or the one that offered him the best deal, including whatever additional payments that he now enjoys?. Free agency wasn't around then, but that deal was brokered as if it was. I would say the revelations this week of around 100 players who are on these sorts of deals is the legacy of that action. Those numbers would suggest that a fair proportion of of established AFL players who have renewed a contract since October, 07 have been given a bit of "sly money."
How can a leading club with 15-25 mature players that is contending for a Premiership build a fence around its team? Logically, when their players come out of contract, they will be fair game for the predators so the club has to sign them before they come out of contract to protect its investment. The managers will be in their players' ear to "test the market." Chucking a couple of extra Gs their way during contract negotiations will become an imprtant way of holding on to them and you are limited in what you can do under the salary cap.
I would suggest that anything that aids player movement will increase pressure on the salary cap and will encourage deals outside of it.
Remember, under current rules player movement is restricted because clubs don't really have any currency to exchange. If they want to extract a player of the quality of Judd or Ablett, they are talking about giving up two or three early draft picks. Hawthorn, for example, picked up Gibson and Burgoyne, but it cost them Williams, McGlynn and Kennedy and they didn't get a pick until pick 39 or whatever it was. A well-planned assault on free agents could see a more beneficial playyer exchange than that one AND the retention of first and second round draft picks, so there will be plenty of incentive to splash money around.
Building a fence around your potential free agents and extracting some from other clubs will become key to future success. The rich clubs, with significant business support, are going to be well-placed.