Can the Richmond Football Club afford to take John Butcher?

[GoodOne]

Welcome to Trengove or Scully to the Richmond Footy Club then.

Melbourne have already committed to Scully at number 1 so forget about him. We will be getting Trengove or Martin in my opinion. Butcher has deficiencies and is not a #3 draft pick. It would be a waste of our latter season tanking effort to draft him.

 

[Jason King]

Melbourne have already committed to Scully at number 1 so forget about him. We will be getting Trengove or Martin in my opinion. Butcher has deficiencies and is not a #3 draft pick. It would be a waste of our latter season tanking effort to draft him.

Which is great when you think about it, both Martin and Trengove have better skills (Martin especially both sides great kick). We cant lose, that is unless we moronically chose Rabito, Butcher or god knows anyone else.

 

[Willo]

I know stuff all about these kids.
What I do know is, I want kids that are capable, skilled and want to and be able to be developed. Not take 4 or 5 years and still have too many deficiencies in their game.
I don't want x bloody factor types. Just good, skilled kids that can play footy. Don't try to outsmart anyone else, it doesn't work.
Our 1st pick, get the best available, regardless of what position they play. Quite simple.
Best of/or needs after that.

 

[Disco08]

just on those 4 you mention.
mcguane and polo have had 5 yrs what really has changed from their first couple of yrs. the honest answer is stuff all or little. there is no upside to these duds.

dan jackson has had 6yrs trust me hes at the very top of his game he wont get better the odds are he will go backwards just doesnt have the tools.

matt white a small nippy player with terrible skills has had 4 yrs doesnt find enough of the ball as a mid or use it well and doesnt kick goals when forward. for a small player he should be close to what he will be in the scheme of things hes behind so many players of similar type. the idea is to catch up and go past other clubs. he will be 23 at the start of next yr15/4/87.
hes had 50 odd games put into him surely we have seen enough its time to move him on rather than just making the problem worse by hanging on for another 2 or 3 yrs.
ya know thats what we nearly always do with players like white hang on for to long and it stifles list development.

he comes out of contract at the end of next yr regardless of what he does next yr he has to go at the end of that yr.again he doesnt have the required tools.he will always slip back to mediocrity.

You know, you're quite right about these blokes. They are all below par as far as disposals go. The only one I'd care to argue with is Polo, who actually showed some very good skills and creativity in certain games off half back this year. The stats back your assertions up quite clearly though:

McGuane - % effective 77.3, % turnovers 13.8

Polo - 76.1, 10.8

Jackson - 66.4, 11.7

White - 70.8, 14

For comparison's sake - Yablett 78, 8.7 / Goddard 76.4, 10.1 / Gilbee 74.5, 8.7 / Boyd 72.8, 7.5 - are all significantly ahead of our guys (apart from Polo) statistically.

The only thing that might be worth considering is that the teams these guys play for are good. They have structure, good game plans and most importantly their teammates work for them. They shepherd and block to give help create time to dispose effectively and they work hard to create options all game long. Perhaps if our team can start to do these things some of these guys will look better than they have. Apart from Jackson none of them really have any trade value and there are plenty to go in front of them so it seems pretty likely we'll see them running around again next year.

 

[the claw]

Which is great when you think about it, both Martin and Trengove have better skills (Martin especially both sides great kick). We cant lose, that is unless we moronically chose Rabito, Butcher or god knows anyone else.

have you even seen morabito play i would think most melburnians have seen little of him he looks a real good player to me and heres people righting of a prodigious talent willy nilly.

i havent see a hell of a lot of the main contenders this yr but i dont right them off i like morabito because ive seen more of him than the others and can at least make some sort of informed opinion. anyone who thinks morabito cant play or wont be a decent afl player at least has rocks in his head.

 

[GoodOne]

have you even seen morabito play i would think most melburnians have seen little of him he looks a real good player to me and heres people righting of a prodigious talent willy nilly.

i havent see a hell of a lot of the main contenders this yr but i dont right them off i like morabito because ive seen more of him than the others and can at least make some sort of informed opinion. anyone who thinks morabito cant play or wont be a decent afl player at least has rocks in his head.

Claw, in terms of the highlights videos that are available, do they paint his game in a bad light? Because honestly I rarely saw him in and under and he rarely hit a target kicking the ball forward and often had players just shrug off his tackles? Happy to hear that this is true and if so, yes we should not just be writing him off.

 

[the claw]

You know, you're quite right about these blokes. They are all below par as far as disposals go. The only one I'd care to argue with is Polo, who actually showed some very good skills and creativity in certain games off half back this year. The stats back your assertions up quite clearly though:

McGuane - % effective 77.3, % turnovers 13.8

Polo - 76.1, 10.8

Jackson - 66.4, 11.7

White - 70.8, 14

For comparison's sake - Yablett 78, 8.7 / Goddard 76.4, 10.1 / Gilbee 74.5, 8.7 / Boyd 72.8, 7.5 - are all significantly ahead of our guys (apart from Polo) statistically.

The only thing that might be worth considering is that the teams these guys play for are good. They have structure, good game plans and most importantly their teammates work for them. They shepherd and block to give help create time to dispose effectively and they work hard to create options all game long. Perhaps if our team can start to do these things some of these guys will look better than they have. Apart from Jackson none of them really have any trade value and there are plenty to go in front of them so it seems pretty likely we'll see them running around again next year.

for sure they will play next yr. but they come out of contract at the end of next yr bar jackson. they are part of a list of 22 definates that have to go.imo they are only staying because we cant do 22 in one go.

ya know me disco i put little time or credence into stats for a long while now my eyes have told me these players are below standard annd have to go. and yep one or two of them may eke out a good season they should still go because deficiencies dont miraculously disappear. pettifer had a good yr once so did tivendale so did mcmahon at the dogs they are all capable of pulling one out of the hat or stringing some good games together. the one thing you can bank on though is they will revert to type.

it really is simple nothing much else comes into it. based on strengths and weaknesses they are rated.
weather they have a good game or bad they are rated on strengths and weaknesses. based on a proper rating system one can honestly say the majority of the list should not have been drafted in the first place.

rhe other thing that i continually harp on about is the length of time we keep players. matt white is an example he enters his 5th yr next yr but we already know he is not good enough. the trouble is it has been evident for a few yrs now he is not good enough how did we know strengths and weaknesses. he was never going to be elite or very good we took him in the hope that we picked up a core list player a foot soldier but his weaknesses for a small and the role he plays have said for awhile now delist.
a quick outside mid who cant kick and doesnt win a lot of footy. doesnt kick goals please tell me why are we persevering with him. he is one of the worst combinations you can have for a small. and ya know what he has played some good games but you can bank on him reverting to type.

ask yourself how is white going to improve what is his upside it doesnt look good.

 

[the claw]

Claw, in terms of the highlights videos that are available, do they paint his game in a bad light? Because honestly I rarely saw him in and under and he rarely hit a target kicking the ball forward and often had players just shrug off his tackles? Happy to hear that this is true and if so, yes we should not just be writing him off.

highlights packages bloody hell just ignore them mate i could look good in a highlight package.

i once saw one about 5 yrs ago i then took the time to go see him play i got tapes on him and had my opinions backed up by a knowledable person. his name was jordan lewis and i liked him so much i contemplated we should use pick 4 on him.

what im saying is unless you see them enough to make an informed opinion your opinion is not worth jack. imo i havent really seen enough of morabito to make a proper informed analysis. but ive seen enough to say he is a player. weather hes as good as scully trengove martin i cant say i cant make an informed opinion on the little ive seen of them.

watched trengove closely against wa and while impressed with him had a voice nagging at me i still cant put a finger on it i need to see more of him live. ive seen some tapes as well and have to admit he also looks a player but bloody hell i would like to see him play another 5 games live.

 

[GoodOne]

highlights packages bloody hell just ignore them mate i could look good in a highlight package.

Thats the point. He doesn't look look that great in the highlights package.

The thing is we don't have the luxury of seeing all these players live, so we can only rely on video. Of course it would be better to see them live. You cant say however, that you cant make any judgement whatsoever by looking at video, are you? As I've said from the highlights package of 4 games that Ive seen Morabito has rarely been in the packs (more skirting them), has hardly ever hit a target, and has his tackles shrugged off with ease.

Was just after your opinion on the times you did see him live, as I agree this is the best way to make judgement on a player.

 

[Jason King]

have you even seen morabito play i would think most melburnians have seen little of him he looks a real good player to me and heres people righting of a prodigious talent willy nilly.

i havent see a hell of a lot of the main contenders this yr but i dont right them off i like morabito because ive seen more of him than the others and can at least make some sort of informed opinion. anyone who thinks morabito cant play or wont be a decent afl player at least has rocks in his head.

Not in the same clas as Martin, Scully or Trengove. We need blokes who can kick exceptionally well.

 

[the claw]

Thats the point. He doesn't look look that great in the highlights package.

The thing is we don't have the luxury of seeing all these players live, so we can only rely on video. Of course it would be better to see them live. You cant say however, that you cant make any judgement whatsoever by looking at video, are you? As I've said from the highlights package of 4 games that Ive seen Morabito has rarely been in the packs (more skirting them), has hardly ever hit a target, and has his tackles shrugged off with ease.

Was just after your opinion on the times you did see him live, as I agree this is the best way to make judgement on a player.

i have no problem with morabitos kicking or his ability to win his own ball. yeah he hits the fringes at pace regularly he gets into space well as well but he will go and get it.

look i think morabito cops a bit of the hurn and rich syndrome. such a big body sheesh what is he 191 192 and 92.he should be tearing them all apart. hes a good mix of outside and get his own ball could probably do a bit more of the inside stuff but it aint a problem good mover good pace good agility awareness smarts knows where to go to get it. he ticks most boxes. yet people are righting him of because his footskills are not elite few are. all im saying is who ever he ends up with they will have a good player,. imo he could end up the better player of all 4.

 

[Disco08]

for sure they will play next yr. but they come out of contract at the end of next yr bar jackson. they are part of a list of 22 definates that have to go.imo they are only staying because we cant do 22 in one go.

ya know me disco i put little time or credence into stats for a long while now my eyes have told me these players are below standard annd have to go. and yep one or two of them may eke out a good season they should still go because deficiencies dont miraculously disappear. pettifer had a good yr once so did tivendale so did mcmahon at the dogs they are all capable of pulling one out of the hat or stringing some good games together. the one thing you can bank on though is they will revert to type.

it really is simple nothing much else comes into it. based on strengths and weaknesses they are rated.
weather they have a good game or bad they are rated on strengths and weaknesses. based on a proper rating system one can honestly say the majority of the list should not have been drafted in the first place.

rhe other thing that i continually harp on about is the length of time we keep players. matt white is an example he enters his 5th yr next yr but we already know he is not good enough. the trouble is it has been evident for a few yrs now he is not good enough how did we know strengths and weaknesses. he was never going to be elite or very good we took him in the hope that we picked up a core list player a foot soldier but his weaknesses for a small and the role he plays have said for awhile now delist.
a quick outside mid who cant kick and doesnt win a lot of footy. doesnt kick goals please tell me why are we persevering with him. he is one of the worst combinations you can have for a small. and ya know what he has played some good games but you can bank on him reverting to type.

ask yourself how is white going to improve what is his upside it doesnt look good.

White was never a super talented type. He's the sort that can be valuable as a depth player even in a good side. I'd imagine somewhere between the 20-35 range on a good team's list at this point. He probably won't ever player a major role but I think he can be relied upon to do certain jobs quite well.

Richmond wouldn't be the only club that's kept blokes that end up doing nothing for 5 or 6 years.

I know you don't like stats but these days they're starting to become more and more intuitive. The simple theory is that if you can see it, you can put a value on it. Anyway, like I said, they illustrate your point quite well in this case.

As far as players reverting to their mean performances, this isn't always true. Improvement happens at different rates. How many people did Tambling make to look rather foolish?

 

[wayne]

Rumour down here in the local rag has Butcher lining up for Maffra in the WGLFL grand final tomorrow in Morwell.

The game alone would be worth a look, should be a ripper. Be interesting to see Butcher if he does play.

 

[Col.E.Kurtz]

Thats the point. He doesn't look look that great in the highlights package.

The thing is we don't have the luxury of seeing all these players live, so we can only rely on video. Of course it would be better to see them live. You cant say however, that you cant make any judgement whatsoever by looking at video, are you? As I've said from the highlights package of 4 games that Ive seen Morabito has rarely been in the packs (more skirting them), has hardly ever hit a target, and has his tackles shrugged off with ease.

Was just after your opinion on the times you did see him live, as I agree this is the best way to make judgement on a player.

The Morbatio 'highlights' are basically everything he did in the game, good or bad, so they are as good as those things get

Of course you never truly know a player until you watch him at the ground, but as videos go the Morabito videos are much better than the infamous 30 second highlight reels that PRE myth has it that we used to draft JoN.

 

[Scoop]

I have no problem with keeping guys on the list for five or six years who have AFL standard skill sets. To keep guys like Matt White on the list for five or six years hoping that there skills will improve is madness.

 

[Tango]

ok my 2 cents worth on this debate:

Scully is gone - Dees so forget him, that leaves 3 players for pick 3

Morabito - taller and has the potential to be anything, X factor, skills are ok not great, doesnt seem to dominate or win contested footy and he is bigger than most lads his age in same roles - and is from WA - big factor

Trengove - smooth, fast, hard at it, tackles and wins contested footy, plays tough, good smarts, skills are ok not great - solid footballer - is from SA

Martin - geuine centreman, elite skills on both sides, not quick, but wins his own footy, runs to recieve, smart footballer - VICTORIAN

i say there is far less risk in taking Martin, we need a centreman, we need footy smarts, and we need footskills and there is no go home factor

just pick him

 

[richards42]

Martin /trengove sounds like the general concenus on here, but would love to have another early pick on here and pick up Gary Rohan as well, he just looks a natural fit for the modern game.

 

[Tango]

yes agree, would love rohan and love griffiths but cant see us getting another 1st round pick

 

[wayne]

Butcher by name, Butcher by nature...

Kicked 1 goal LOTS of behinds for Maffra on Saturday.

 

[Jason King]

Butcher by name, Butcher by nature...

Kicked 1 goal LOTS of behinds for Maffra on Saturday.

and the types going around here asking for a fair go on this bloke .... No thanks. Anyone remember Cleve Hughes ? Difference was that he could actually kick :hihi