Great insight - my only proviso that the club, even after 2017 success went out and got Lynch and I would argue without the 2 KPF we wouldn’t have won 2019 and 2020.
You have got me thinking though.
Because rookies rarely turn into AFL calibre players, able to make 100 games, let alone 200 or be a match winner.Turk you have forgotten that we are the kings of the rookie draft.
Why can't we trade pick 21 for 3 extra rookie selections??
Where the kids are hungry and desperate to play,
Newcombe Bulter Lambert Grimes
Good post Leysy. Been saying for a while we lack speed in the fwd line which is why I was calling for Rioli and Hugo to play fwd this year.A lot saying we need to draft minimum two key forwards. Unless we really need a couple, reckon 1 is plenty.
Look at teams winning finals the past couple of years. It's not the key forwards winning them.
It's the small's and mediums - Why - Because finals are ground ball games. They are chaos games.
Fun facts -
In the last 5 years exactly 50% of home and away are chaos games and 50% are controlled (Champion Data grade it as controlled if there are more marks than ground ball gets. Which makes perfect sense.
However in finals matches - incredibly 80% are chaos (i.e. more ground ball gets than marks, as the pressure goes up, playing the controlled chip chip marking game becomes harder).
7 of 43 prelim finals in that time are also chaos.
Of the last 15 grand finals - Only 3 have been controlled with two clear outriders in that. 2019 which was chaos at half time until we took the foot off the gas and cruised home. And 2015 where Hawthorn belted West Coast. Again at 3/4 it was chaos until the heat went out of the game.
So really one GF in 15 years. Leysy's eye tells him that trend aint changing.
Look at the weekend. Hawthorn this year - Mabs is the key forward. It's Moore, Watson, Ginnivan, Macdonald, etc that do the damage.
Geelong - Key forward is Neale who is only OK. But it is Mannagh, Miers, Stengle, Close, Dempsey and a guy called Cameron who is an endurance freak who roams all over the ground who create the carnage.
Sydney - It was Papley, Hayward and goal kicking hybrid mids like Heeney.
Conversely the losers - Carlton and the Dogs have quality tall forwards. Fat lot of good that did them. Why - They have poor ground ball game inside 50.
Last year - Collingwood - Mihocek was it. Oh and Frampton. It was Bobby Hill, Elliott, McCreery, Ginnivan etc.
We already have Fawcett, Lefau, Gray, Kozi, Lynch, Bauer on the books. Add 1 more draftee and that's already a lot of players when you can play two of them in any one game.
So why would we use two more valuable early picks on multiple Key forwards. Much rather invest in players that have elite ability where finals are actually won - On the ground.
Let's focus on getting class and quality there (smart, fast, aerobic footballers that play on instinct all over the ground)
AI .......Always inebriated?Leysy must have stumbled upon A.I
Because rookies rarely turn into AFL calibre players, able to make 100 games, let alone 200 or be a match winner.
Our list is full of AFL capable role players. We don't need more of them, we need elite, match winning class.
Time to stop banging that drum.
And guys like Aarts who followed, although their hearts are big, don't cut the mustard.Good post Leysy. Been saying for a while we lack speed in the fwd line which is why I was calling for Rioli and Hugo to play fwd this year.
We stumbled onto this formula in 2017 out of necessity with rioli George Butler Lambert and shed creating havoc in the fwd line and the results were beautiful. We revolutionised the game however we went away from this and didn't replenish our stocks when we traded out the likes of butler stengle Higgins and moved rioli back. We need to get back on the horse quickly starting this draft.
Goota think that some of those picks will be eventually moved to next year on the draft night or before. I suspect they would want a minimum of 3 1st rounders next year as wellOk maybe done a few times here but best case scenario
Bolton - pick 9 and 10
Rioli pick 6 and 12 and we give them some later picks
Baker - pick 13 (Hawks pick to WC)
Graham - compo pick 22 (after our pick 21)
Brisbanes pick 14 for some later picks.
Leaving us with 1, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 21, 22
Yze standing with 7 new first round draftees on night 1 of the draft.
Only problem is none of our forward talls are proven. Ryan ?? Gray ?? Fawcett?? Lefau second knee?? Bauer not key and only played a few games without injury??This is the best post I have ever read on PRE. Well done. Daniel Hoyne backed over it again tonight on SEN.
So we have the talls. The question is what ground ball competitive players do we have?
Ground ball competitive (inside) player which lack speed or agility:
Taranto
Hopper
Prestia
Mcauliffe
Sonsie
With speed or agility:
MJR
Mansell
Green
Smith?
Outside runners:
Ross
Ralphsmith
Clark
Banks
Campbell
We are lacking competitive speed in the middle in a major way. The GWS kid Peatling would be major get for our needs - moneyball play. The rest get from the draft. All mids for the draft with speed and competitiveness the major focus.
Thing I'm enjoying ATM is that it seems to be accepted that Bolton will draw picks 9 and 10 from Freo.
Great, means there will be less screams from Freo fans if we get those picks.
What I hated is that Bolton seems to have been very half-hearted in his efforts this year, knowing he was leaving.
Fine. Leave. We get 9 and 10.
Alternately there is a greater degree of argument about Rioli amd Baker and their worth.
Is Rioli worth 6 and 12 or 6 and 20.
Is Baker worth pick 3 or does there need to be a sweetener and what pick is it.
Both Rioli and Baker have shown serious commitment and played hard this year.
If push comes to shove we can simply keep both and expect the same mind set next year.
Makes an interesting bargaining point in any trade negotiation.
Collingwood ask for pick 12 for Noble - to open negotiations.
The suggestion is 3 swapped for 10 and Baker.Zero chance we get pick 3 for Baker. If we can get 13 or whatever the Hawks give up for Barrass we have made out like theives. In all likelihood its 23 plus a future third.
Rioli will be pick 6 maximum with nothing further thrown in
And RoyceCan we draft a young, skillful and passionate key forward out of Tassie? I miss Richo and Riewoldt
For sure. But Lefau and Gray are competitors and Fawcett shows traits he is a competitor in an extremely small sample size. Ryan is not compeititve. We still have Lynch - first pre-season in two years, the ultimate competitive beast.Only problem is none of our forward talls are proven. Ryan ?? Gray ?? Fawcett?? Lefau second knee?? Bauer not key and only played a few games without injury??
Could also rookie both May and Davidson if they are still available, plus draft a tall; several available - Armstrong, Shanahan, Dodson, Mraz, O'farrell, lockwood etc.For sure. But Lefau and Gray are competitors and Fawcett shows traits he is a competitor in an extremely small sample size. Ryan is not compeititve. We still have Lynch - first pre-season in two years, the ultimate competitive beast.
Royce into Roach into Gale into Richo into Riewoldt.And Royce