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2024 - List Management
- Thread starter The_General
- Start date
It's why Hardwick wants Rioli and why he is worth demanding two first rounders (otherwise he does not go) With Gibcus uninjured next year our backline becomes much better. He is a penetrating kick for a big man. With Brown, Balta and Gibcus the ball will be coming out long from defence. The midfield and forward connection is the big issue and unknown.
Yeah I dont follow the idea to push picks to next year to 'spread the risk'.
It only makes sense if we value next years kids over this (i dont know, and dont think any on here know, so let assume its roughly equal).
Same or similar risk of draft pick success
Picks now
* we have list space
* gets games into the kids
*gets kids who have played together - a mini team
* gamestyle etc taught as one
* fastracks our return
Trade into future picks
* slows our return as next years kids need an extra year to develop
* keep players on list longer than needed eg Dow and Cumbo
A lot saying we need to draft minimum two key forwards. Unless we really need a couple, reckon 1 is plenty.
Look at teams winning finals the past couple of years. It's not the key forwards winning them.
It's the small's and mediums - Why - Because finals are ground ball games. They are chaos games.
Fun facts -
In the last 5 years exactly 50% of home and away are chaos games and 50% are controlled (Champion Data grade it as controlled if there are more marks than ground ball gets. Which makes perfect sense.
However in finals matches - incredibly 80% are chaos (i.e. more ground ball gets than marks, as the pressure goes up, playing the controlled chip chip marking game becomes harder).
7 of 43 prelim finals in that time are also chaos.
Of the last 15 grand finals - Only 3 have been controlled with two clear outriders in that. 2019 which was chaos at half time until we took the foot off the gas and cruised home. And 2015 where Hawthorn belted West Coast. Again at 3/4 it was chaos until the heat went out of the game.
So really one GF in 15 years. Leysy's eye tells him that trend aint changing.
Look at the weekend. Hawthorn this year - Mabs is the key forward. It's Moore, Watson, Ginnivan, Macdonald, etc that do the damage.
Geelong - Key forward is Neale who is only OK. But it is Mannagh, Miers, Stengle, Close, Dempsey and a guy called Cameron who is an endurance freak who roams all over the ground who create the carnage.
Sydney - It was Papley, Hayward and goal kicking hybrid mids like Heeney.
Conversely the losers - Carlton and the Dogs have quality tall forwards. Fat lot of good that did them. Why - They have poor ground ball game inside 50.
Last year - Collingwood - Mihocek was it. Oh and Frampton. It was Bobby Hill, Elliott, McCreery, Ginnivan etc.
We already have Fawcett, Lefau, Gray, Kozi, Lynch, Bauer on the books. Add 1 more draftee and that's already a lot of players when you can play two of them in any one game.
So why would we use two more valuable early picks on multiple Key forwards. Much rather invest in players that have elite ability where finals are actually won - On the ground.
Let's focus on getting class and quality there (smart, fast, aerobic footballers that play on instinct all over the ground)
Look at teams winning finals the past couple of years. It's not the key forwards winning them.
It's the small's and mediums - Why - Because finals are ground ball games. They are chaos games.
Fun facts -
In the last 5 years exactly 50% of home and away are chaos games and 50% are controlled (Champion Data grade it as controlled if there are more marks than ground ball gets. Which makes perfect sense.
However in finals matches - incredibly 80% are chaos (i.e. more ground ball gets than marks, as the pressure goes up, playing the controlled chip chip marking game becomes harder).
7 of 43 prelim finals in that time are also chaos.
Of the last 15 grand finals - Only 3 have been controlled with two clear outriders in that. 2019 which was chaos at half time until we took the foot off the gas and cruised home. And 2015 where Hawthorn belted West Coast. Again at 3/4 it was chaos until the heat went out of the game.
So really one GF in 15 years. Leysy's eye tells him that trend aint changing.
Look at the weekend. Hawthorn this year - Mabs is the key forward. It's Moore, Watson, Ginnivan, Macdonald, etc that do the damage.
Geelong - Key forward is Neale who is only OK. But it is Mannagh, Miers, Stengle, Close, Dempsey and a guy called Cameron who is an endurance freak who roams all over the ground who create the carnage.
Sydney - It was Papley, Hayward and goal kicking hybrid mids like Heeney.
Conversely the losers - Carlton and the Dogs have quality tall forwards. Fat lot of good that did them. Why - They have poor ground ball game inside 50.
Last year - Collingwood - Mihocek was it. Oh and Frampton. It was Bobby Hill, Elliott, McCreery, Ginnivan etc.
We already have Fawcett, Lefau, Gray, Kozi, Lynch, Bauer on the books. Add 1 more draftee and that's already a lot of players when you can play two of them in any one game.
So why would we use two more valuable early picks on multiple Key forwards. Much rather invest in players that have elite ability where finals are actually won - On the ground.
Let's focus on getting class and quality there (smart, fast, aerobic footballers that play on instinct all over the ground)
Too add to the above - Every team than had the most ground ball gets won the match on the weekend. Interestingly the overall games were 2-2 chaos v control.
What it means for this draft - Say at pick 10. Two players are lined up around that mark are key forward Harry Armstrong and Joe Berry. Given the above along with our needs, we'd be mad to take Armstrong ahead of Berry.
Notwithstanding that ILO Berry is the better prospect anyhow.
What it means for this draft - Say at pick 10. Two players are lined up around that mark are key forward Harry Armstrong and Joe Berry. Given the above along with our needs, we'd be mad to take Armstrong ahead of Berry.
Notwithstanding that ILO Berry is the better prospect anyhow.
What you say about chaos is right . We may have started that trend with Hardwick.
But the talls on our list aren't much chop. With so many picks we'd be mad not to take two. There seems to be a high attrition rate with our talls with injuries. If we grab a couple out of Armstrong,Shanahan or the Whitlock boys we may have a chance of at least getting one good one.
Good insight LD
But to get a ground ball the big forwards need to compete and knock the ball down.
From my limited viewing that isnt Armstrong (but i could be wrong, many good posters on here are fans).
A solid contest maker.
Its why this draft could be so fruitful, we could skip Armstrong and take Berry and Faull
(For example)
But to get a ground ball the big forwards need to compete and knock the ball down.
From my limited viewing that isnt Armstrong (but i could be wrong, many good posters on here are fans).
A solid contest maker.
Its why this draft could be so fruitful, we could skip Armstrong and take Berry and Faull
(For example)
Yes the genius of Hardwick (and his assistants) was to recognise that chaos would happen in finals and so train/play it the regular season. So obvious and it took 120 years.
There is one reason to trade picks into next year: you trade a couple of later picks for an earlier pick. Say we have already taken maybe 5 players in this year's draft, we're left with a late second rounder and a couple of third rounders - trade them for a future second or first depending on expected ladder position and it can be a decent strategy, we trade volume of picks this year for quality of pick in the future.
DS
DS
Delist - Dow , McIntosh , Cumberland , Coulthard
We have seen enough and none are any good
Take 10 players this year with the hope 5 become AFL players
there will be gems in the 40's that slide
Its rebuild time and do it properly not half arsed
We have seen enough and none are any good
Take 10 players this year with the hope 5 become AFL players
there will be gems in the 40's that slide
Its rebuild time and do it properly not half arsed
Turk you have forgotten that we are the kings of the rookie draft.
Why can't we trade pick 21 for 3 extra rookie selections??
Where the kids are hungry and desperate to play,
Newcombe Bulter Lambert Grimes
Funny thing is though zippers, that everyone of those great rookie kids was right there staring at everyone in the main draft firstly. Just that everyone in recruiting was to stupid or blind to see them.
I get where you are coming from
in 2017 we went all the way with just Jack and before he went down this year with Lynch clunking them we would have been ok with just Lynch
but if you have only one true quality KPF you are running very skinny
and we've seen it with Carlton and McKay and Curnow , sometimes they look better when they only have one on the park
if we had most of the pieces for a serious tilt at a flag i wouldn't like the thought of it being derailed by your 1 key forward going down with an ACL
on a different note
I felt the umpires largely put away the whistle for the first week of the finals and the tall forwards are getting arms chopped , runs blocked , held etc and no frees
while in the first half of the Home & Away they are whistle happy and tall forwards get a lot more frees
the talls can play a big part in getting you to finals and the ground crew have to carry you through the finals
I reckon the setup the Giants have got is a good one , Hogan & Cadman , a senior and a junior and GWS will be hoping Cadman is ready when the end comes for Hogan
and then they get another junior
will one of Bauer , Lefau or Gray become Lynches understudy ? I'm hoping so , but wouldn't bet my house on it
Dan Butler was not a rookie draft - was pick 67 in the 2014 national draft
On the defensive end its the aerial game to intercept and relieve pressure of the chaos.
Supremacy of the skies.
Balta Gibcus Brown.
We've also got the limited footballers who may hold down a role - Blight Miller Young. One making it will be good.
Tauru would be interesting but not a need.
I have Freo taking him with their Port pick, so I dont think we get him
I agree, but also if we get a couple of 2nd rounders in 2025 we will be very well set up for trading into the 2025 1st round given the changes to the points system.
If we take 5-6 in the 1st and 2nd round this year, take Davidson and the academy guy that's quite a lot of new players if we take one or two others between rookies, PSD, train-ons or delisted free agents. We can then use picks to have a very good 2025 hand.
It is a tactic but whether it is the right tactic or not is up for debate, it is possible.
I see both points of view but I was listening to Rodney Eade this week and his view is that you can have too many 1st year players and you stifle their development.
Who knows?
Didn't listen to Eade but just watching training on a regular basis you can see guys get lost. Take out some of the guys who take guys under their wings (Dylan, Rioli, Baker) and you're left with Dion, Broady, Jack G (yeah surprise, surprise), Jack R, Tom L, to a degree, with very few others. Very few of the rest are senior enough.
Given Mansell is owning up to needing to be a leader after 50 games is telling imho.
So yeah too many kids and some will get lost. Just watching training and what the players have to learn and the managed effort I believe a balanced refresh across 2 or 3 drafts is a way better option.
Plus not all pick will make it, as is debated ad nauseum, on these threads. So spreading across 2 or 3 drafts allows you to cover for those that don't step up as needed.
Agree Leysy. No point taking a key forward earlier for the sake of it. Just like rucks, you only take a key forward in the first round of the draft if they are Riewoldt, Lynch, Cameron like quality.
