2024 - List Management

[dimmauchump]

Which is why we should we going all out this draft while we still have a number of experienced guys on the list. In relation to Dow I'd rather go to the state leagues and pick up a Lambert in their spot around the 22-23 year age bracket that can also grow with the group and could potentially become a very good player. Dow can stay on our list for the next 5 years and he still won't have improved enough. Same with Mcintosh etc. Need to be smart and ruthless and the list can be overturned withing 2-3 years

 

[BiddiscombeSkills]

We have enough up forward for the next few years while our new starting midfield grows up.

We also have a ton of cap space opening up.

When we're in a position to challenge again, we'll simply buy a forward or two. Maybe start planting some seeds and laying the ground work now. And if any of our current crop of talls come good in the meantime, it will be icing on the cake.

 

[Dyer'ere]

A lot saying we need to draft minimum two key forwards. Unless we really need a couple, reckon 1 is plenty.

Look at teams winning finals the past couple of years. It's not the key forwards winning them.

It's the small's and mediums - Why - Because finals are ground ball games. They are chaos games.

Fun facts -

In the last 5 years exactly 50% of home and away are chaos games and 50% are controlled (Champion Data grade it as controlled if there are more marks than ground ball gets. Which makes perfect sense.

However in finals matches - incredibly 80% are chaos (i.e. more ground ball gets than marks, as the pressure goes up, playing the controlled chip chip marking game becomes harder).

7 of 43 prelim finals in that time are also chaos.

Of the last 15 grand finals - Only 3 have been controlled with two clear outriders in that. 2019 which was chaos at half time until we took the foot off the gas and cruised home. And 2015 where Hawthorn belted West Coast. Again at 3/4 it was chaos until the heat went out of the game.

So really one GF in 15 years. Leysy's eye tells him that trend aint changing.

Look at the weekend. Hawthorn this year - Mabs is the key forward. It's Moore, Watson, Ginnivan, Macdonald, etc that do the damage.

Geelong - Key forward is Neale who is only OK. But it is Mannagh, Miers, Stengle, Close, Dempsey and a guy called Cameron who is an endurance freak who roams all over the ground who create the carnage.

Sydney - It was Papley, Hayward and goal kicking hybrid mids like Heeney.

Conversely the losers - Carlton and the Dogs have quality tall forwards. Fat lot of good that did them. Why - They have poor ground ball game inside 50.

Last year - Collingwood - Mihocek was it. Oh and Frampton. It was Bobby Hill, Elliott, McCreery, Ginnivan etc.

We already have Fawcett, Lefau, Gray, Kozi, Lynch, Bauer on the books. Add 1 more draftee and that's already a lot of players when you can play two of them in any one game.

So why would we use two more valuable early picks on multiple Key forwards. Much rather invest in players that have elite ability where finals are actually won - On the ground.

Let's focus on getting class and quality there (smart, fast, aerobic footballers that play on instinct all over the ground)

That's a terrific post, Bryan.

 

[Dyer'ere]

I love mosquitos. Fleets of em. I think you can win the premiership with seventeen small forwards.

The trick is they've got to be able to hold a margin when they get on the break. There's no point getting out the break if they mow you down from behind. Speed matters.

Once you get on the break your target is easier to hit. We're all on the break. You just put it in front of the next player. You put him through. It takes the pressure off the kicking skills. Provided you can hold your margin. Provided you've got the speed to maintain your space.

We don't need 22 x 2.85/20m players. But we can't have a side full of 3.05/20m. Our speed profile is *smile* with the loss of Grimes (blistering), Rioli (blistering), Shai (real brisk). And we'd already lost Prestia's pace due to wear and tear. (You ever see Prestia run down from behind?) And that bloke who used to be good at football. Whatsisname.

Once we've got the speed profile it's not just us getting on the break, it's us hunting them down when they try to break. And getting the outnumber each way. We can get numbers there if we're quick enough. We aint quick enough by streets.

 

[Scoop]

Not sure who said it on what podcast but it has stuck to me on list builds. Basic premise is this, lists need these three factors to be elite to compete for a top four spot.

1) Everyone will have 4-5 elite mids, 6 -7 needed to wins finals and be top four.
2) Elite Small Forwards who work up and back x 4-5 wins finals. And not onballers who change forward, actual elite small forwards.
3) Intercepting defender with elite foot skills that can launch attacks from the intercept.

Average key position players and an above-average ruck are needed as a baseline as well.

Interesting concept.

 

[Harry]

Ok maybe done a few times here but best case scenario

Bolton - pick 9 and 10
Rioli pick 6 and 12 and we give them some later picks
Baker - pick 13 (Hawks pick to WC)
Graham - compo pick 22 (after our pick 21)
Brisbanes pick 14 for some later picks.

Leaving us with 1, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 21, 22

Yze standing with 7 new first round draftees on night 1 of the draft.

 

[taztiger4]

That's a terrific post, Bryan.

one in a row hey Jack

 

[French Tiger]

Ok maybe done a few times here but best case scenario

Bolton - pick 9 and 10
Rioli pick 6 and 12 and we give them some later picks
Baker - pick 13 (Hawks pick to WC)
Graham - compo pick 22 (after our pick 21)
Brisbanes pick 14 for some later picks.

Leaving us with 1, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 21, 22

Yze standing with 7 new first round draftees on night 1 of the draft.

From 9 to 14 will be fun on draft night ! Be 10 minutes on the clock of pretty much just us ha ha

 

[Jason King]

That's a terrific post, Bryan.

Its seriously one of the best posts ever here, that I have seen anyway. Great insights.

 

[frecks]

It really hurts to see their ongoing onfield success, doesn't it? But it's an astute aim to set about gaining an understanding of what they've done so right. Even if it's to establish that the processes for their success are atypical and cannot be duplicated or even loosely followed in principle.

Our recent success would be hard to replicate when you think of all the pieces it took to come together to get there. But it would behoove other clubs to understand it better.

Just a couple of small elements gleaned from what Geelong does right, from what we did right and what others are doing right (did some say Green Bay Packers?) might be what it takes to add to our own culture / recruiting / development in order to establish a sustained period of success.

And MCG & Punt Rd reduced to bowling alley size, that takes care of their home ground advantage. Yep, should do it I reckon.

 

[year of the tiger]

I get where you are coming from

in 2017 we went all the way with just Jack and before he went down this year with Lynch clunking them we would have been ok with just Lynch

but if you have only one true quality KPF you are running very skinny

and we've seen it with Carlton and McKay and Curnow , sometimes they look better when they only have one on the park

if we had most of the pieces for a serious tilt at a flag i wouldn't like the thought of it being derailed by your 1 key forward going down with an ACL

on a different note
I felt the umpires largely put away the whistle for the first week of the finals and the tall forwards are getting arms chopped , runs blocked , held etc and no frees
while in the first half of the Home & Away they are whistle happy and tall forwards get a lot more frees
the talls can play a big part in getting you to finals and the ground crew have to carry you through the finals

I reckon the setup the Giants have got is a good one , Hogan & Cadman , a senior and a junior and GWS will be hoping Cadman is ready when the end comes for Hogan
and then they get another junior

will one of Bauer , Lefau or Gray become Lynches understudy ? I'm hoping so , but wouldn't bet my house on it

I like the concept of one established KPF and one developing / up and coming.

You need a squad of 30 quality players to win a flag given the amount of injuries we are seeing.

Given we have holes all over the list, if we go best available at each pick and we have 6 or 7 first rounders then I reckon I reckon P and T you might be on the money below.

* say 4 mids given its full of quality mids
* 2 KPP with at least one of these a KPF, maybe both but if one is a defender so be it.
* 1 small forward

Are there any decent rucks with one of our later picks?

This is the thing...
Draft picks are very very cheap...much more so than trading for mature players.
They are also of value..ie ..if Draper wanted to go home in 3 years

So NOW is the time to draft every possible need..

Mids ..at least 3
Small forward..at least 1
KPF..at least 2
Utility..at least 1
That is 7 at a minimum.
More is fine...it is a no loss situation...cant get anyone cheaper.
I would go more if possible...this draft rather than next...get games into them asap.

 

[year of the tiger]

A lot saying we need to draft minimum two key forwards. Unless we really need a couple, reckon 1 is plenty.

Look at teams winning finals the past couple of years. It's not the key forwards winning them.

It's the small's and mediums - Why - Because finals are ground ball games. They are chaos games.

Fun facts -

In the last 5 years exactly 50% of home and away are chaos games and 50% are controlled (Champion Data grade it as controlled if there are more marks than ground ball gets. Which makes perfect sense.

However in finals matches - incredibly 80% are chaos (i.e. more ground ball gets than marks, as the pressure goes up, playing the controlled chip chip marking game becomes harder).

7 of 43 prelim finals in that time are also chaos.

Of the last 15 grand finals - Only 3 have been controlled with two clear outriders in that. 2019 which was chaos at half time until we took the foot off the gas and cruised home. And 2015 where Hawthorn belted West Coast. Again at 3/4 it was chaos until the heat went out of the game.

So really one GF in 15 years. Leysy's eye tells him that trend aint changing.

Look at the weekend. Hawthorn this year - Mabs is the key forward. It's Moore, Watson, Ginnivan, Macdonald, etc that do the damage.

Geelong - Key forward is Neale who is only OK. But it is Mannagh, Miers, Stengle, Close, Dempsey and a guy called Cameron who is an endurance freak who roams all over the ground who create the carnage.

Sydney - It was Papley, Hayward and goal kicking hybrid mids like Heeney.

Conversely the losers - Carlton and the Dogs have quality tall forwards. Fat lot of good that did them. Why - They have poor ground ball game inside 50.

Last year - Collingwood - Mihocek was it. Oh and Frampton. It was Bobby Hill, Elliott, McCreery, Ginnivan etc.

We already have Fawcett, Lefau, Gray, Kozi, Lynch, Bauer on the books. Add 1 more draftee and that's already a lot of players when you can play two of them in any one game.

So why would we use two more valuable early picks on multiple Key forwards. Much rather invest in players that have elite ability where finals are actually won - On the ground.

Let's focus on getting class and quality there (smart, fast, aerobic footballers that play on instinct all over the ground)

Great insight - my only proviso that the club, even after 2017 success went out and got Lynch and I would argue without the 2 KPF we wouldn’t have won 2019 and 2020.

You have got me thinking though.

 

[gold1]

Give me 2 to 3 key forwards that can consistently take a pack mark anytime.Small forwards can pick up the scraps.This season the side could not manage to score above 70 points on most occasions.Probably was the lowest season score overall ever for the Tiges.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Its seriously one of the best posts ever here, that I have seen anyway. Great insights.

I could not agree more, Jason. He's done the work. Got the numbers and backed it up.

 

[theglove3]

one in a row hey Jack

Just like our Wins!

Huge test for the recruiters coming up.

 

[CarnTheTiges]

Ok maybe done a few times here but best case scenario

Bolton - pick 9 and 10
Rioli pick 6 and 12 and we give them some later picks
Baker - pick 13 (Hawks pick to WC)
Graham - compo pick 22 (after our pick 21)
Brisbanes pick 14 for some later picks.

Leaving us with 1, 6, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 21, 22

Yze standing with 7 new first round draftees on night 1 of the draft.

That’s one of the more realistic scenarios, Harry.

 

[Don’t Argue]

Its seriously one of the best posts ever here, that I have seen anyway. Great insights.

Leysy must have stumbled upon A.I

 

[RedanTiger]

Thing I'm enjoying ATM is that it seems to be accepted that Bolton will draw picks 9 and 10 from Freo.
Great, means there will be less screams from Freo fans if we get those picks.

What I hated is that Bolton seems to have been very half-hearted in his efforts this year, knowing he was leaving.
Fine. Leave. We get 9 and 10.

Alternately there is a greater degree of argument about Rioli amd Baker and their worth.
Is Rioli worth 6 and 12 or 6 and 20.
Is Baker worth pick 3 or does there need to be a sweetener and what pick is it.

Both Rioli and Baker have shown serious commitment and played hard this year.
If push comes to shove we can simply keep both and expect the same mind set next year.

Makes an interesting bargaining point in any trade negotiation.

 

[silvertiger]

A lot saying we need to draft minimum two key forwards. Unless we really need a couple, reckon 1 is plenty.

Look at teams winning finals the past couple of years. It's not the key forwards winning them.

It's the small's and mediums - Why - Because finals are ground ball games. They are chaos games.

Fun facts -

In the last 5 years exactly 50% of home and away are chaos games and 50% are controlled (Champion Data grade it as controlled if there are more marks than ground ball gets. Which makes perfect sense.

However in finals matches - incredibly 80% are chaos (i.e. more ground ball gets than marks, as the pressure goes up, playing the controlled chip chip marking game becomes harder).

7 of 43 prelim finals in that time are also chaos.

Of the last 15 grand finals - Only 3 have been controlled with two clear outriders in that. 2019 which was chaos at half time until we took the foot off the gas and cruised home. And 2015 where Hawthorn belted West Coast. Again at 3/4 it was chaos until the heat went out of the game.

So really one GF in 15 years. Leysy's eye tells him that trend aint changing.

Look at the weekend. Hawthorn this year - Mabs is the key forward. It's Moore, Watson, Ginnivan, Macdonald, etc that do the damage.

Geelong - Key forward is Neale who is only OK. But it is Mannagh, Miers, Stengle, Close, Dempsey and a guy called Cameron who is an endurance freak who roams all over the ground who create the carnage.

Sydney - It was Papley, Hayward and goal kicking hybrid mids like Heeney.

Conversely the losers - Carlton and the Dogs have quality tall forwards. Fat lot of good that did them. Why - They have poor ground ball game inside 50.

Last year - Collingwood - Mihocek was it. Oh and Frampton. It was Bobby Hill, Elliott, McCreery, Ginnivan etc.

We already have Fawcett, Lefau, Gray, Kozi, Lynch, Bauer on the books. Add 1 more draftee and that's already a lot of players when you can play two of them in any one game.

So why would we use two more valuable early picks on multiple Key forwards. Much rather invest in players that have elite ability where finals are actually won - On the ground.

Let's focus on getting class and quality there (smart, fast, aerobic footballers that play on instinct all over the ground)

This is the best post I have ever read on PRE. Well done. Daniel Hoyne backed over it again tonight on SEN.

So we have the talls. The question is what ground ball competitive players do we have?

Ground ball competitive (inside) player which lack speed or agility:

Taranto
Hopper
Prestia
Mcauliffe
Sonsie

With speed or agility:
MJR
Mansell
Green
Smith?

Outside runners:
Ross
Ralphsmith
Clark
Banks
Campbell

We are lacking competitive speed in the middle in a major way. The GWS kid Peatling would be major get for our needs - moneyball play. The rest get from the draft. All mids for the draft with speed and competitiveness the major focus.

 

[Tigerwa]

Hmm Brisbane Dynasty Bradshaw, Lynch Brown. funny that.

Hawks dynasty Franklin, Roughhead Gunston even Hale.

Geelong Hawkins, Ottens Mooney

Even us Riewoldt Lynch we needed to go out and draft Lynch.

People talk about development and then ignore just how long it takes to develop players especially tall forwards.

Our current dilemma we just dont have a high quality KPF outside of 32yo Lynch. At 32 surely we are looking at a replacement which means high quality junior kpf. Have we replaced Jack Riewoldt ? NOT ON YOUR LIFE. Of course we need to take some quality key forwards they rarely come late in drafts or mid seasonor as rookie picks.

The vast majority of premiership teams have had very good talls in them. A premiership is more than just grand final day.

We won a flag in 2017 with one of the smallest teams in modern history we at least had JR. We were a far better team with both JR and TL when he came to us.

We only need look at this season to see what happens when you don't have quality talls in your team. Thats right you struggle to kick a decent score.

Most of the time well rounded teams win premierships yes sometimes there are exceptions.Tiges 2017 anyone.
Better to aim for a well rounded team than have to make it up as you go and hope a Caddy or a Townsend can at least get the ball to ground for ya.

Lots of opportunity this coming draft and trade period to address serious list needs including tall forwards.