2024 Draft Thread

[pete and tys]

I have no idea but from ESPN top 30 - Best traits similar to:

Here are some:

Ashcroft = Serong
Smith = Butters
Draper = Warner
FOS = Heeney
Lalor = Petracca
Smillie = T Green
Langford = J Dawson
Armstrong = Naughton
Lindsay = J Kelly
Reid = G Meirs

So can the junior watchers please confirm if Reid's best traits are ducking, sooking and playing for free kicks?

Reid is not like Meirs...he is better.
Poise and balance, time and excellent ball use...Sidebottom is the closest comparison.

 

[Snatch]

CCJ was played out of his native position, he's too spindly for a key forward role, Dodson needs to be played as first ruck, any notion that this is another forward in the making is probably misguided.

On the bright side, basketball converts have a really high success rate combined with a really high ceiling. Grundy, Gawn & Tippett all had the basketball pedigree, this should be reason for great optimism. Dodson still a long way off those guys but in four years we might be pleasantly surprised.

So there’s still hope for Collina and Hayes-Brown then.

 

[Don’t Argue]

I have no idea but from ESPN top 30 - Best traits similar to:

Here are some:

Ashcroft = Serong
Smith = Butters
Draper = Warner
FOS = Heeney
Lalor = Petracca
Smillie = T Green
Langford = J Dawson
Armstrong = Naughton
Lindsay = J Kelly
Reid = G Meirs

So can the junior watchers please confirm if Reid's best traits are ducking, sooking and playing for free kicks?

Armstrong or Tauru.
Will the real next Naughton please stand up?

 

[bullus_hit]

So there’s still hope for Collina and Hayes-Brown then.

Big difference when pooling all the cat B rookies, I'm talking about legitimate national draft selections ie. players who have demonstrated football ability at state level.

 

[yeahnomaybe]

Which of the 7 drop? Its a big unknown and we would carry the risk. Shuffling out of this years draft (a deep one) into next year is another risk. Shift 23 out for say 16 might get us an equivalent player.
I'm not against a trade but i'm pointing out that most clubs don't have the 2025 capital that suit us.


And thats true for Port and Pies. Neither holds a F1, traded to GC. Who have academy kids and arent trading back into 24. And i think GWS are in the same boat.
Its why I left them off.

Gotta know your form.
In this case its Essendon and Saints who suit us best

Adelaide might be in the frame as well
Our last 2 picks 23 and 24
Surely Adelaide might be interested in one of them for a swap of there first next year
Especially if Alex Dodson is on the list

 

[bullus_hit]

Controversial statement maybe, but I reckon the depth of this draft is deceiving.

It has a lot of players, more than usual, that could make it at AFL level. However, I don't think there are that many sure bets.

I reckon when you take serious injuries to some high profile players into consideration - particularly Lalor, Hotton and Trainor - there are probably 8 players that could be considered low risk picks i.e. odds are they will make solid AFL players.

For me that is Smith, O'Sullivan, Draper, Langford, Lindsay, Allen, Tauru, Travaglia.

Of this group I reckon we are 'hoping' Smith falls to 6 (if we don't trade for 2 and Norf take Tauru). I reckon we have little chance of O'Sullivan, Draper or Langford.

We will likely have a shot at least 2 of Lindsay, Allen, Travaglia at picks 10 / 11.

Just looking at this from a boom bust perspective - even with 8 picks - getting 5 legit AFL players will be a good result. And that is being optimistic - 5 is a 62% success rate which is up on the 53% first round success rate we have had in the FJ/Clarke recruiting era.

I honestly think there will be a few busts even at the top end. The most likely to hit 200 games are Smith & Langford, those two would be the players I'd target in Richmond's situation. O'Sullivan is immensely talented but he also represents the riskiest type of top 5 pick, low possession impact players can often cause heartburn. The rest of your list looks on point although I wouldn't personally go near Allan, his kicking a long way from the top echelon.

 

[bullus_hit]

It will be interesting if Tauru gets to 6 what we do.

I think we have to take the best key position prospect over the 5th ranked midfielder.

 

[spook]

Dotson link to Richmond is super strong. Was in yesterdays age and was floated by Twomey earlier in the week.

I'm a fan. Has mobility, a ground game and a good leap. Someone line up his numbers next to CCJ and tell me they aren't the same, that's my only nerves around him.

Dudson reeks CCJ to me. Avoid.

 

[Sintiger]

Fair point well made Dell Boy.

Only thing would add, Essendon have Melbourne's 1st rounder as well, which could shape to be very tasty. Adelaide too could look to get in again. Likewise GWS.

You also mentioned 7 teams would finish high.

Can pretty much guarantee that at least a couple of those will miss the 8.

And that didnt include GWS, Collingwood or Port. Gold Coast too are a chance of bouncing among others. They all cant finish well up the ladder.

Every year just about without fail a team drops from the top 4 to outside the 8. It just happens. You only need to look at pre-season ladder predictions compared to how they end up to know how teams fortunes turn quickly.

Would swap say pick 23 or 25 for most of those 7 you mentioned. We just need to get on the right train.

There will be 15 clubs who legitimately reckon they can play finals in 2025 and one of the other 3 in North reckons they are climbing up the ladder as well. 7 of those 15 will miss out their F1s will be a top 10 pick. The trick is picking the right one(s).

It’s very difficult

To me it is very likely Brisbane, Sydney and Geelong will play finals in 2025
Then there is a group of Hawthorn, Carlton, Giants, Freo and Port who would expect to
Then there is another group of Suns, Collingwood, Melbourne, Bulldogs who could go either way
Then Essendon, st Kilda and Adelaide who probably won’t but could surprise.

I reckon if we target Essendon who have theirs and Melbourne’s F1 and St kilda and Adelaide the chances are it is a top 12 pick at worst. Even north’s F1 may be available even if we don’t trade for pick 2.

 

[WesternTiger]

Dudson reeks CCJ to me. Avoid.

I heard he hates kababs so thats a positive...

 

[tigertime2]

Are Blues linked to Trevaglia at 3?
Does anyone have his midfield numbers from late in the season?

 

[tigerdell]

Adelaide might be in the frame as well
Our last 2 picks 23 and 24
Surely Adelaide might be interested in one of them for a swap of there first next year
Especially if Alex Dodson is on the list

With what?
Their first? Its likely top 5.
Would you give up a top 5 future to get our 18?


The question is not which clubs want a piece of the draft, but who has capital.

Some clubs can do a swap of futures, say Adelaide & Dogs plus Dogs 17 (i dont think that happens btw). But we're likely #1 next year and no way we swap.

 

[bullus_hit]

Are Blues linked to Trevaglia at 3?
Does anyone have his midfield numbers from late in the season?

That's a really interesting twist, Travaglia has similar traits to Draper without extensive midfield experience. It would be ballsy in the extreme but if the Blues are looking to avoid an interstate raid I can see logic. The big question they might have trouble ducking is the original trade they facilitated, I'd even be tempted to go back to them with 10 & 11 if Travaglia is their primary target.

 

[tigerdell]

There will be 15 clubs who legitimately reckon they can play finals in 2025 and one of the other 3 in North reckons they are climbing up the ladder as well. 7 of those 15 will miss out their F1s will be a top 10 pick. The trick is picking the right one(s).

It’s very difficult

To me it is very likely Brisbane, Sydney and Geelong will play finals in 2025
Then there is a group of Hawthorn, Carlton, Giants, Freo and Port who would expect to
Then there is another group of Suns, Collingwood, Melbourne, Bulldogs who could go either way
Then Essendon, st Kilda and Adelaide who probably won’t but could surprise.

I reckon if we target Essendon who have theirs and Melbourne’s F1 and St kilda and Adelaide the chances are it is a top 12 pick at worst. Even north’s F1 may be available even if we don’t trade for pick 2.

Dont forget that Melbourne, Port, carlton Collingwood dont have a f1.
Dogs and WC have picks 25&26.
And the academy bids will chew up 4 picks in the 20s, so clubs can stick fat. For example Saints 32 is only 4 picks after our 24.


The bottom clubs wont give up a future top 5 pick for a late first rounder.

IMO its Ess and their 2 picks and their love of Shanahan.
As for the idea we'll trade 24 into a lovely future first... Who?

 

[Steely Danzig]

I heard he hates kababs so thats a positive...

This just doesn't stack up....

 

[thegdog]

Latest chat with my recruiter mate still hears we are taking Lalor at 1 and that he couldn’t go past Jagga at 1 if he had it based on his body of work and consistency. Can’t spruik Lindsay enough

 

[Sintiger]

Dont forget that Melbourne, Port, carlton Collingwood dont have a f1.
Dogs and WC have picks 25&26.
And the academy bids will chew up 4 picks in the 20s, so clubs can stick fat. For example Saints 32 is only 4 picks after our 24.


The bottom clubs wont give up a future top 5 pick for a late first rounder.

IMO its Ess and their 2 picks and their love of Shanahan.
As for the idea we'll trade 24 into a lovely future first... Who?

Yeah I know there are limited clubs with good F1s but you never know what the deals might be.
This year the draft is so even we may find a club who sees a player still available at 20 who they rate as top 10 and reckon an F1 is an acceptable price to pay.

 

[Smoking Aces]

Dotson link to Richmond is super strong. Was in yesterdays age and was floated by Twomey earlier in the week.

I'm a fan. Has mobility, a ground game and a good leap. Someone line up his numbers next to CCJ and tell me they aren't the same, that's my only nerves around him.

Dodson?? Yeah nah steer clear.

IMO rucks should not be drafted in the top 30.

 

[Ripplestick]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1856852584864387536

 

[Brodders17]

On the bright side, basketball converts have a really high success rate combined with a really high ceiling. Grundy, Gawn & Tippett all had the basketball pedigree, this should be reason for great optimism. Dodson still a long way off those guys but in four years we might be pleasantly surprised.

Im not sure how true this is. Probably 80% of kids drafted would have played basketball at some point, plenty of them would have played til close to draft time. Those numbers would be even higher for rucks-
case in point 1st google search i tried was CCJ- he played a good level u16 bball.