I can't find any phantom drafts where they have which AFL player the kid is like.
Lalor (Martin/Degoey)
Who's O'Sullivan like?
Langford?
Smillie,?
Lalor (Martin/Degoey)
Who's O'Sullivan like?
Langford?
Smillie,?
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2024 Draft Thread
- Thread starter Mr T.
- Start date
For upside I would say O'Sullivan has shades of Heeney, Langford possibly Bontempelli, Smillie closer to Tom Green.
If it is thought by North that we will use 1 on Tauru then I think it is likely that North would accept that offer.
If they wait until the deed is done then it is conceivable they might get cranky and keep it from us but even in that event we would still have access to 2 maybe 3 great mids. Taking Cals list Draper Allan Lindsay are three such possibilities… there are others with Marshall also looming large.
That’s the idea.
Whatever happens don’t think we will risk taking Smillie.
It really feels like Smillie is the biggest boom bust pick in the draft....
I’d be very happy if we drafted someone who became Tom Green with better disposal !!
You can go through every archetype and find similar players that were hits or busts. For me it doesn't make sense to compare players like this, they are all their own individuals. We also cant compare him to guys that are just scraping 190+. He measured in at 195.5 at the combine and think he could be 196 by next year.
Tallest & Shortest AFL Players Full List
A complete list of all players from tallest to shortest.www.zerohanger.com
Going off this there are 0 out and out mids that are 196+ so he'll be the tallest mid in the comp. There's only 2 195+ mids (Cripps and Hustwaite). He's a rare unit. His athletic profile is exciting too for a guy that size.
- Ran a 3.08 20m which stacks up well against similar guys like Bont and Cripps who were both 3.2+.
- Ran 8.391 agility which I think was better than what Jagga did? (could be wrong) who should've had him covered here with his body type.
- Ran a very solid 6:38 2km on a tough day where most of them ran slower times.
- 7th in standing vertical
Add to all that the fact that he's a very natural footballer and not just some athlete. Clean hands and one touch at the contest, finds the ball with ease and kicks goals. Also uses the ball well and anyone that thinks he doesn't is objectively wrong. His kicking is one of his strengths.
Get 3-4 pre seasons into all this + proper AFL level training and who knows what could become of this kid ? I agree its a little bit of a risky pick but imo his ceiling is on mars if he can put it all
Smillie's athletic profile is impressive when handicapped to account for height. Running 3.08 is good for a tall player, but slow for a midfielder. The 'fastest tall player' is like being the nicest guy in prison.
The athletic trade off with height isn't usually desirable for a midfielder, as being tall isn't relevant to the way they play. Tall midfielders are rare because height is a shortcoming.
As you've pointed out, Smillie's smarts and clean hands are more relevant to his role. If he's as smart as JR8, he'll overcome the limitations imposed upon him by his gratuitous height. Hopefully he stops growing.
IMO tall players were the true handbreak in 2017 - when half of them got injured, the gameplan improved against the coach's will. We were on the cusp of a triple flag dynasty, and yet, Plan A was to bomb it long to Todd... such is the grip that body size holds over perception.
This shows that the advantage of having pace and the disadvantage of being slow are two separate things
Why would Tigers be the only ones to bid on Marshall? I don't quite get it. Brisbane are already resigned to likely go into deficit anyway as Ashcroft will be bid on early, just not by us.
Controversial statement maybe, but I reckon the depth of this draft is deceiving.
It has a lot of players, more than usual, that could make it at AFL level. However, I don't think there are that many sure bets.
I reckon when you take serious injuries to some high profile players into consideration - particularly Lalor, Hotton and Trainor - there are probably 8 players that could be considered low risk picks i.e. odds are they will make solid AFL players.
For me that is Smith, O'Sullivan, Draper, Langford, Lindsay, Allen, Tauru, Travaglia.
Of this group I reckon we are 'hoping' Smith falls to 6 (if we don't trade for 2 and Norf take Tauru). I reckon we have little chance of O'Sullivan, Draper or Langford.
We will likely have a shot at least 2 of Lindsay, Allen, Travaglia at picks 10 / 11.
Just looking at this from a boom bust perspective - even with 8 picks - getting 5 legit AFL players will be a good result. And that is being optimistic - 5 is a 62% success rate which is up on the 53% first round success rate we have had in the FJ/Clarke recruiting era.
It has a lot of players, more than usual, that could make it at AFL level. However, I don't think there are that many sure bets.
I reckon when you take serious injuries to some high profile players into consideration - particularly Lalor, Hotton and Trainor - there are probably 8 players that could be considered low risk picks i.e. odds are they will make solid AFL players.
For me that is Smith, O'Sullivan, Draper, Langford, Lindsay, Allen, Tauru, Travaglia.
Of this group I reckon we are 'hoping' Smith falls to 6 (if we don't trade for 2 and Norf take Tauru). I reckon we have little chance of O'Sullivan, Draper or Langford.
We will likely have a shot at least 2 of Lindsay, Allen, Travaglia at picks 10 / 11.
Just looking at this from a boom bust perspective - even with 8 picks - getting 5 legit AFL players will be a good result. And that is being optimistic - 5 is a 62% success rate which is up on the 53% first round success rate we have had in the FJ/Clarke recruiting era.
Yeah I am only expecting 4 absolute gems coming to us from this draft - anything more is a bonus (possible but you can’t bank on it)
I understand Brisbane along with GCS anticipate taking some academy players in the 2025 draft. Don’t think they would want to take a deficit forward into next year for that reason alone.
The earlier Ashcroft (and later Marshall), are bid on, the greater that deficit would become and the more likely that a Marshall bid by another club would be successful.
He looks very very good and worthy of a top 10-15 selection.
The other point is that young Ashcroft is pretty clearly the best player in this draft. Putting to one side the possibility that it will help a possible later bid by us on Marshall, we should bid on him at one.
I expect we will.
Because we are (mostly) irrational supporters we will expect all of them to be stars but you are 100% correct, they won’t all be.
Maximising the successes is why we pay Blair and his team the big bucks.
What is 100 % certain is that there will be posts questioning why we picked player x when player y taken the pick later turned out a star. Probably as early as 2025 !!
Maybe so...but add Ashcroft Marshall. Lombard Kako....and Reid.. ...and I think Armstrong and Shanahan. and Berry...thats 8 more AFL quality players...makes 14 in total.
Not included Smillie ..
If you do add Trainor..Lalor and ..Hotten..plus Smillie...that is 18 AFL quality players for certain.
The difference this year is that the mid level quality goes beyond pick 30.
Most years there is no AFL quality post mid teens...other than lucky hits.
PS..there are more interstate that we know little about. Ie Davis and Champion in WA...there will be others.
Ben Camporeale is under rated here...I think he will be AFl quality . Dodson may yet prove to be a quality ruckman.
Tyler Welsh is certainly AFL quality.
Kids are still young..time will tell.
Not included Smillie ..
If you do add Trainor..Lalor and ..Hotten..plus Smillie...that is 18 AFL quality players for certain.
The difference this year is that the mid level quality goes beyond pick 30.
Most years there is no AFL quality post mid teens...other than lucky hits.
PS..there are more interstate that we know little about. Ie Davis and Champion in WA...there will be others.
Ben Camporeale is under rated here...I think he will be AFl quality . Dodson may yet prove to be a quality ruckman.
Tyler Welsh is certainly AFL quality.
Kids are still young..time will tell.
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No Brisbane will not go into deficit if Ashcroft is bid on after pick 2. They’ll also have enough points to get Marshall if he is bid on later in the first round.
By bidding on Ashcroft at 1 we’d put them in a precarious position where another bid that comes for Marshall before a late first round, could force them to pass matching. Marshall is a gun player that I think has not been talked about because everyone just accepts he’s Brisbane bound. I’d love Richmond to go after Marshall as I believe he’s a top 6 talent.
I get the idea, it just has no credibility.
North are looking to trade to a) get an additional pick and b) because the Viking is a reach at 2 and they think he'll be there later.
Why would they believe Richmond, with its huge draft haul and decimated list, that we'd take a tall with lots of upside, at the risk of losing the best midfielders. Rawlings has some folks being hypercritical here, but he's not an amateur on a Web forum. We could get the Viking, but we'd likely not get the additional picks, and get 1 midfielder.
Tauru and Smillie as our top 2 picks. Would folks be happy if we did that? I doubt it.
