2024 Draft Thread

[tigerjoe12]

I think...

We trade Rioli & a future 3rd for pick 6 & a future 2nd from GC

3 way trade involving
Bolton for picks 9 & 10
Baker & pick 10 for pick 3 & WC's future 3rd

Richmond lose Baker, Bolton & gain picks 3, 9 & future 3rd from WC

We then trade our picks after 39 that are worth value for Brisbane's 15

I think we'll end up with something like picks 1, 3, 6, 9, 15, 21, 29, 39. + GC's second rounder on top of ours next year giving us four picks within the first 37 or so picks next year

For 2024 draft I hope we target

Elite mids with our first three picks
We get three KPP's ideally one 198cm+ monster, who can also rotate through the ruck, one traditional KPP in the 194-197cm range, & one mobile KPP
We get a genuine small forward
A mid/fwd with one of our later picks

Dream outcome
We get FOS & Jagga with 1 & 3
We get Lalor with 6
Pick 9 we get Armstrong
Pick 15 we get Tauru
Pick 21 Jack Whitlock or Hotton/Berry if available
Pick 29 Moraes/Dattoli/Gross or Matt Whitlock if Hotton/Berry selected at 21
39 best leftover of Moraes/Dattoli/Gross

We'll still likely need another couple of players but I think we just add them over the summer. I think we draft the best available rookie over summer & a more mature body, maybe a Davidson to give us a little more maturity over the next couple of years

Then we draft in 1-2 players in mid-season draft next year plus four players within the first 37 picks of the 2025 draft

Updated projection....I was slightly off on the pick scenario, but still 8 picks overall & what would be similar points I would imagine

Interesting to see what seemed realistic 7 weeks ago. Tauru & Dattoli both seem to have bolted. Trainor & others slid a little at the same time

Dream scenario

1. Lalor/FOS
6. Smith
10. Smillie/Tauru
11. Travaglia/Allen
18. Berry
20. Shanahan
23. Trainor/Faull
24 traded for F1st & a pick in the mid 40's which we use on best player available, probably a ruck

Probably more realistic/likely scenario

1. Lalor/FOS
6. Smillie
10. Lindsay/Reid
11. Travaglia/Allen
18. Jack Whitlock
20. Dattoli/Hotton
23. Faull
24. Dodson

Overall I hope we go

- 3 mids
- 1 flanker
- 1 small forward
- 2 KPP's
- best available with last pick, if a standout mid, flanker, or small forward was leftover go for that. Otherwise a speculative tall, a Gerryn, Dodson, or Whitlock if still available

Next Wednesday night is my birthday & a milestone one at that. I've banked up a lot of good karma over the years so am predicting a good night for us

 

[tigerdell]

On Blair blurting, Sin, Blair is not part of the mechanism of leaking directly about pick #6. There are those who say he has leaked about #1 FWIW. But who can be sure? In the end the information gets out. Who will go at #1, Sin? Once you know #1 you can know #2. And so on.

You've published above the numbers on Twomey's accuracy in the past couple of years. We measure. We judge.

When we compare Twomey's final mock draft to the final draft order we'll be able to measure again how knowable (to just Twomey) it was.

Some people are uncomfortable about Twomey getting intel on who goes where. But he gets it. It's just how the world works.

There are no leaks M. Poirot, only information alluded from extraneous sources.
Interviews are important. The numbers yes, but also whats said and unsaid.
Player Managers talk. To whom? Well clubs of course, to list mgrs. "Whaddya think of my boy?" and "Wouldnt he be a great fit down at your club!"
Though its likely subtlety is out with player managers.
And they talk to the young players. "Did they ask about yer mum's cooking? Oh gosh they're keen!"
"They mentioned homework? Sorry son it looks like yer might slide to night two"

Player mgrs talk. And judge all the feedback. They'll share with club A that club RFC has interviewed him 12 times. "Fits right in, they said. Very impressive young man they called him"
So club A knows.
And the player mgr knows.
And Whome knows.

You of course know this Poirot. I've just explained to you for the delight of our readers, and so that I could prepare an elaborate getaway.

 

[tigerdell]

Hard to believe we will have 6 or 7 of them as tigers next week

At best 4.

That 20 includes 4 academy kids so only 16 kids available to draft.
By our pick 18 most of those will be gone (tho maybe a tall or 2 will still be there)

 

[Aegean Tiger]

Will say it again. Norf are between a rock and a hard place.

Just like WCE during trade week, they have the choice of having to eat up a lot ....or eat up a lot less.

They can't just keep 2 and use it on Tauru and that's it. Done. They have to get another pick in this draft somehow and that's where they'll have to suck it up a bit in a trade with someone for the sake of avoiding a totally overs and inefficient outcome.

And they will. Just watch. They'll accept a trade with someone, of some sort or another, on draft night.

Agreed. Despite their posturing, reckon Norths are scrambling to find a buyer.

If Blair is interested in 2. He is playing his cards very well.

 

[lidss]

Every year there's a K-Mart Cripps and they all struggle to become AFL regulars. This class of player rarely gets going at the top level - Jackson Hately, RCD, Tom Bell, Harley Balic, Charlie Constable, Will Setterfield, Matthew Kennedy, Will Brodie, Ed Allan.............................

just adding names for the sake of adding names...why even include guys like bell (rookie draft), rcd (pick 20), allen (pick 19) balic & constable (both 36) when none of those players were rated anywhere near as highly as what smillie is now.

and how about guys that did work out like clayton oliver, tom green, will day, finn callaghan, bontempelli. all 190cm mids and basically all top 10 picks which is where smillies range is, not picks in the 30s

 

[Aegean Tiger]

According to Twavis Cloke, the Crows don't talk alot of smoke and shadows behind the windows.

Thank you for the laugh Ripples. Smoke and shadows behind the windows. Lovely.

 

[bullus_hit]

just adding names for the sake of adding names...why even include guys like bell (rookie draft), rcd (pick 20), allen (pick 19) balic & constable (both 36) when none of those players were rated anywhere near as highly as what smillie is now.

and how about guys that did work out like clayton oliver, tom green, will day, finn callaghan, bontempelli. all 190cm mids and basically all top 10 picks which is where smillies range is, not picks in the 30s

Clayton Oliver is 189cm and pretty mobile, I think his outside game was also pretty evolved and he had shown form in the VFL. The point I'm trying to make is there have been many highly rated 190cm players who have been busts, junior form can be deceptive because many are operating with a size advantage. Smillie might buck the trend, who knows, i'd be ok picking him at 10 but if we're taking a bit of a punt then Tauru would be the best play at pick 6.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

He's a lot better than RCD, that's not in dispute. I think his upside is Tom Green with slightly better disposal, that's probably the industry thinking. As a baseline, most of the best mids start with a ready-made tank, I reckon that could be the biggest stumbling block although Cripps went from a 13 beep to winning a couple of Brownlow medals.

I dont really think his tank is that bad and will improve dramatically in 203 pre seasons

If its #7 - Richmond select Smillie i would not be too upset infact i think i would have a big grin with anticipation of what he could become.

#10 for #13 + #29 is the trade im wanting to see and select Both the Whitlocks now with #13 + #18
They just fill so many holes on the list in having another KPF & KPB that can go foward alongside Balta & Gibcus
Lalor
Smillie
Reid
Whitlock
Whitlock
Hynes
Dodson

Not a bad haul

 

[bullus_hit]

I dont really think his tank is that bad and will improve dramatically in 203 pre seasons

If its #7 - Richmond select Smillie i would not be too upset infact i think i would have a big grin with anticipation of what he could become.

#10 for #13 + #29 is the trade im wanting to see and select Both the Whitlocks now with #13 + #18
They just fill so many holes on the list in having another KPF & KPB that can go foward alongside Balta & Gibcus
Lalor
Smillie
Reid
Whitlock
Whitlock
Hynes
Dodson

Not a bad haul

Both the Whitlocks as a package makes a bit of sense, I can see the logic there.

 

[tigertime2]

Have we looked at trading for any decent points yet?

No. However, I am positive pick 32 is returning in the deal for Saints pick 7!!!

 

[tigerdell]

Listening to this, I think the top 20 is as follows;

Pick 1: Lalor Rich
Pick 2: Ashcroft Bris
Pick 3: FOS North
Pick 4: Draper Carl
Pick 5: Smith Ade
Pick 6: Langford Mel
Pick 7: Smillie Rich
Pick 8: Reid St.Kilda
Pick 9: Kako Ess
Pick 10: Lombard GC
Pick 11 Tauru St. Kilda
Pick 12: Armstrong Melb
Pick 13: Allan Ric
Pick 14: J Whitlock Rich
Pick 15: Travaglia WCE
Pick 16: Shanahan Port
Pick 17: M Whitlocks Freo
Pick 18:Lindsay GWS
Pick 19: Berry GWS
Pick 20 Marshall Bris

Good list SA.
Still to come are Hotton, Hannaford, Dattoli (tho i guess Dogs take one with the next pick) Hynes Faull Oliver Moraes Trainor.
Lets say
Pick 21 Hotton Dogs
Pick 22 Hynes Tigers
Pick 23 Dattoli Swans
Pick 24 Faull Tigers
Pick 25 Trainor GWS
Pick 26 Dodson Swans
Pick 27 Moraes Tigers
Pick 28 Oliver Tigers


Looking at this I'd be happy to trade 6 and 23 (in reality 27) for 2.
Effectively FOS is a better mid than Smillie, and we miss on one outside flanker.
Trading for 2 gets us the better mids

 

[tigerdell]

Yeah I was tossing up whether Melbourne go with Lindsay instead of Armstrong.

I can see how the Dees go a big and a small.
Getting both Langford and Lindsay would improve ball disposal. Both options work for them

 

[Leysy Days]

Not many clubs have the future picks we want tho Mr Daze.
Say we'll want picks 1-12.
And our picks18-24 are on the table.
Any later future picks may not be better than this years pick. In other words its got to advantage us.

So looking at the clubs
Some will finish too low to trade our 18-24 with - North, Crows, WCE
GC (and GWS?) arent trading because of academy kids.


Some clubs are a risk of winning in 25 - blues/hawks n dogs. Cats a risk too. Freo are probable movers up.
Obviously Brissy Swans are out. They will have future picks 11-18 which isnt tradeable for us.
Unless it also involves a later pick this year.
Eg Cats F1 + 45 for 23 ...err 45 is pretty late. No thanks.
The club need a useful pick for us, say 25-35
Dogs F1 + 35 for 24.. They do have 25 so its not likely.


It leaves Bumbers and Saints with good Future firsts to trade.
Ess will prob come for Shanahan, i can see 11 being traded out (it needs to be live because of Kako & confirming their man is available)


So possible trades
Ess trade F1 + 28 for 11
Saints trade F1 for 18 (too one sided our way)
Hawks trade blues F1 + 33 for 23
Freo trade F1 + 30 for 20
Port trade F2 and 29 for 24


Not a big basket of trades there my friend.

Fair point well made Dell Boy.

Only thing would add, Essendon have Melbourne's 1st rounder as well, which could shape to be very tasty. Adelaide too could look to get in again. Likewise GWS.

You also mentioned 7 teams would finish high.

Can pretty much guarantee that at least a couple of those will miss the 8.

And that didnt include GWS, Collingwood or Port. Gold Coast too are a chance of bouncing among others. They all cant finish well up the ladder.

Every year just about without fail a team drops from the top 4 to outside the 8. It just happens. You only need to look at pre-season ladder predictions compared to how they end up to know how teams fortunes turn quickly.

Would swap say pick 23 or 25 for most of those 7 you mentioned. We just need to get on the right train.

 

[Leysy Days]

I dont really think his tank is that bad and will improve dramatically in 203 pre seasons

If its #7 - Richmond select Smillie i would not be too upset infact i think i would have a big grin with anticipation of what he could become.

#10 for #13 + #29 is the trade im wanting to see and select Both the Whitlocks now with #13 + #18
They just fill so many holes on the list in having another KPF & KPB that can go foward alongside Balta & Gibcus
Lalor
Smillie
Reid
Whitlock
Whitlock
Hynes
Dodson

Not a bad haul

A very pedestrian across the ground haul though Turk. Smillie and Reid together adding to the slowest midfield in the land.

 

[lidss]

Clayton Oliver is 189cm and pretty mobile, I think his outside game was also pretty evolved and he had shown form in the VFL. The point I'm trying to make is there have been many highly rated 190cm players who have been busts, junior form can be deceptive because many are operating with a size advantage. Smillie might buck the trend, who knows, i'd be ok picking him at 10 but if we're taking a bit of a punt then Tauru would be the best play at pick 6.

You can go through every archetype and find similar players that were hits or busts. For me it doesn't make sense to compare players like this, they are all their own individuals. We also cant compare him to guys that are just scraping 190+. He measured in at 195.5 at the combine and think he could be 196 by next year.

Tallest & Shortest AFL Players Full List

A complete list of all players from tallest to shortest.

www.zerohanger.com

Going off this there are 0 out and out mids that are 196+ so he'll be the tallest mid in the comp. There's only 2 195+ mids (Cripps and Hustwaite). He's a rare unit. His athletic profile is exciting too for a guy that size.

- Ran a 3.08 20m which stacks up well against similar guys like Bont and Cripps who were both 3.2+.
- Ran 8.391 agility which I think was better than what Jagga did? (could be wrong) who should've had him covered here with his body type.
- Ran a very solid 6:38 2km on a tough day where most of them ran slower times.
- 7th in standing vertical

Add to all that the fact that he's a very natural footballer and not just some athlete. Clean hands and one touch at the contest, finds the ball with ease and kicks goals. Also uses the ball well and anyone that thinks he doesn't is objectively wrong. His kicking is one of his strengths.

Get 3-4 pre seasons into all this + proper AFL level training and who knows what could become of this kid ? I agree its a little bit of a risky pick but imo his ceiling is on mars if he can put it all together.

 

[momentai]

Bully solely he needs to be forward or else he doesn't fit our bill our defence with Gibcus, Balta and a few others has the spine already

Not so. Balta, and Gibcus when available, are just as likely to play forward.

 

[lidss]

A very pedestrian across the ground haul though Turk. Smillie and Reid together adding to the slowest midfield in the land.

I used to be on him at pick 1 but this is what turned me off a bit. They said he battled some illnesses at the back end of the year so maybe this affected his ability to cover the ground ? not sure though i'd have to watch his early games to see if it was the same.

 

[bullus_hit]

I used to be on him at pick 1 but this is what turned me off a bit. They said he battled some illnesses at the back end of the year so maybe this affected his ability to cover the ground ? not sure though i'd have to watch his early games to see if it was the same.

If he's 196cm and growing I'd say he's nudging that territory of being too tall for a pure midfield role. That's approaching Blicavs territory, I think that role requires a bit of flexibility. Can Smillie play key back at that height? Is his overhead marking strong enough for this role?

 

[Little Ziggyadee]

Where's our Academy? In Siberia?
Even Essendon have a kid on their books

 

[turk-d-tiger]

A very pedestrian across the ground haul though Turk. Smillie and Reid together adding to the slowest midfield in the land.

Smillie is not slow and neither is Lalor or Hynes
Reid is also not a turtle but great with his hands and vision which adds speed on the ball

Both the Whitlocks would be also fine with their pace
Whilst none are express i wouldnt be rating them as slow