2024 Draft Thread

[tigerlove]

Here's the snippet from the HUN this morning...

JAGGA FIRMING AS A TOP-FIVE LOCK

Highly-rated Victorian midfielder Jagga Smith is looking increasingly certain to be a top-five draft pick next Wednesday, with Harvey Langford shaping as a potential slider to St Kilda’s first selection.

Smith is believed to have strong interest from Carlton (pick 3), Adelaide (pick 4) and Melbourne (pick 5) and is no longer expected to get past the Demons.

Richmond is still favoured to select Sam Lalor at pick 1 but has also weighed up Finn O’Sullivan.

With North Melbourne eyeing Alix Tauru at pick 2, Carlton looks set to have a choice between O’Sullivan, Sid Draper and Smith.

The Blues have long been favoured to take O’Sullivan, but are also big fans of Draper and Smith — two other players who would fit their needs nicely.

Draper, Smith and Langford have all been linked to Adelaide at pick 4, while Smith and Langford look the most likely options for Melbourne at pick 5.

The Tigers are widely tipped to use pick 6 on Josh Smillie, while Brisbane Lions father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft is expected to attract a top-five bid.

Interesting that it still looks similar to favoured options weeks ago, Lalor, Tauru, FOS, Draper, Smith.

We must take Langford surely. Worried with Smillie links to Blair, he will get the nod.

 

[Redford]

Yeah, agree with that mate. More about him not getting mentioned in discussion for our picks too often. I may have to jump across to the Draft thread to see where the all-knowledgeable Pre'ers had him pegged.

He's pretty handy. I posted a while back that he moved into the midfield at the later stages of the Coates season and went well. Not huge numbers but enough to suggest he could rotate from small forward to midfield during a game pretty easily. One particular game (can't remember which one it was), he was very impactful doing that.

FWIW Richmond have spoken to him 3 times now, I think it is.

 

[tigerlove]

Love to get my hands on our draft rating list post draft , be very interesting I’d imagine

I have the pin key password to get into the office. You just need to unlock the cabinet.

 

[nikolasmia]

I have been on the Smillie bandwagon for a while and do not quite understand the concerns on his kicking

Think he is a great kick, excellent clearance player with a massive upside

Also do not think his ruckwork in the forward line gets enough credit, think he is Hawkins like the way he ragdolls his opponent and kicks goals, has done it plenty of times

A truly unique prospect, and for me far superior to Langford and Jagga, due to his size, versatility, high ceiling and athletic profile

 

[mrposhman]

The more I think about this, the more I really want us to trade up in the draft. I'd be happy with 6 in the 1st 24 and a couple of late picks, or a late pick and the 1st pick in the rookie draft.

Having looked at that back end a bit more due to posting in the phantom draft, I think there are a number of players that suit us. There isn't a lot of pace at the top end of the draft, but there are a number of wingmen and smalls in that later part of the draft. Add onto that talls like Gerreyn, Mraz, O'Farrell likely in the 40's, I reckon there are big options available.

Lets say we did the mooted trade with Port for 13 and 29 for 10.
Lets say we did the mooted trade with North for 2 and F1 for 6 and 13. That give us Lalor and FOS.
Lets say we did the mooted trade with Saints for 7 for 11 and 20 (maybe we get a future pick back too), then looking at how the top 7 is falling, we probably get either Langford or Smillie.

So Lalor, FOS and Smillie with our 1st 3 picks.
Leaving us with Picks 18, 23, 24 and 29 (so 7 in total).
We might still trade 1 of those 3 in the 18-24 range out into next year and get another later pick back, lets say a future 1st in the 10-15 range plus a pick in the 30's. That pick and the Port one, can either be used or traded back further by gaining extra picks next year. I know the points aren't as lucrative next year, but with the number of linked players next year, teams will still be planning on trading for points next year.

I reckon we could get those 3 in the top 7, another 2 in the 18-24 range and a couple of late steals, and still end up with a really nice haul of picks again next year.

Lets say our 1st, Norths F1, Hawks / Carlton F1, Our F2, and maybe several F2 and F3's for the trade back options.

Yes we got a great hand this year, but we could still potentially turn it into a super hand across 2 drafts.

 

[Sintiger]

The Tigers are widely tipped to use pick 6 on Josh Smillie, while Brisbane Lions father-son prospect Levi Ashcroft is expected to attract a top-five bid.

I always get a bit bemused at this Smillie linked to Richmond at pick 6 rhetoric.
We work on player rankings and have for years. Just because we like Smillie doesn’t mean if someone we rank higher slips to 6 we won’t pick him and I would be staggered if anyone knows what our rankings are.

 

[Cooper O'Reilly]

His disposal looks good to me. In particular, there's two qualities that I love to see:

- quickly disposes of the ball (short time with ball in hand)
- almost every single kick is inboard to a more dangerous position on the ground

I love it when midfielders are quick and daring with their possessions. Sometimes this playstyle leads to a higher clanger rate (as was the case with Dusty) because it's inherently more difficult to shoot for the most effective options in dangerous positions up the ground.

One of his weaknesses is supposed to be his lack of pace, but his fast time in possession is a great quality for offsetting a lack of pace. There's a lot to like.

I particularly like his apatite for the physical contest, loves to tackle and tackles with intent.

I know some will say that's because he's bigger than the other kids and he won't be as effective in the AFL. Maybe, but you can't put in what God left out. If he loves the physical stuff now he's gonna love it at whatever level he plays.

Players with a physical presence bring something intangible to a side. It lifts everyone in the side.

 

[Tigatale]

The more I think about this, the more I really want us to trade up in the draft. I'd be happy with 6 in the 1st 24 and a couple of late picks, or a late pick and the 1st pick in the rookie draft.

Having looked at that back end a bit more due to posting in the phantom draft, I think there are a number of players that suit us. There isn't a lot of pace at the top end of the draft, but there are a number of wingmen and smalls in that later part of the draft. Add onto that talls like Gerreyn, Mraz, O'Farrell likely in the 40's, I reckon there are big options available.

Lets say we did the mooted trade with Port for 13 and 29 for 10.
Lets say we did the mooted trade with North for 2 and F1 for 6 and 13. That give us Lalor and FOS.
Lets say we did the mooted trade with Saints for 7 for 11 and 20 (maybe we get a future pick back too), then looking at how the top 7 is falling, we probably get either Langford or Smillie.

So Lalor, FOS and Smillie with our 1st 3 picks.
Leaving us with Picks 18, 23, 24 and 29 (so 7 in total).
We might still trade 1 of those 3 in the 18-24 range out into next year and get another later pick back, lets say a future 1st in the 10-15 range plus a pick in the 30's. That pick and the Port one, can either be used or traded back further by gaining extra picks next year. I know the points aren't as lucrative next year, but with the number of linked players next year, teams will still be planning on trading for points next year.

I reckon we could get those 3 in the top 7, another 2 in the 18-24 range and a couple of late steals, and still end up with a really nice haul of picks again next year.

Lets say our 1st, Norths F1, Hawks / Carlton F1, Our F2, and maybe several F2 and F3's for the trade back options.

Yes we got a great hand this year, but we could still potentially turn it into a super hand across 2 drafts.

I like your logic but I think if we did trade 6 then 18, 20 or 23 would get pick 2

 

[Scoop]

100% we take Langford over Smillie.

I would go that way as well, the club, dunno.

 

[Scoop]

Which news was it, Stan? Interesting that Melbs might overlook Langford but not a total surprise.

Let's work it anyway.

Lalor
FOS
Draper
Smith
Lindsay
Smillie
Langford

Reid?
Armstrong?
Allan

FOS at 2? I haven't heard anything concrete about him at 2, are we ruling the Viking out at 2? Officially, off the table at 2?

 

[mrposhman]

I like your logic but I think if we did trade 6 then 18, 20 or 23 would get pick 2

Its that I'd prefer to have 2 (and keep either 6 or 7) and a F1 from North than those picks in the 10 and 11 range. I don't think the sliders from the top 6 or 7 will get there, possibly Smillie, but probably not, reckon Melbourne take him if he gets that far.

This way we might lose those 10 or 11 picks, but get 3 of the top 7, and pretty much guarantee ourselves 3 of Lalor, FOS, Langford, Smith or Smillie. I reckon thats worth losing those picks at 10 and 11, especially as we gain an extra F1, which you'd think at worst would be about Pick 8.

There are many ways to skin a cat, but I guess the position I'm coming from is that I'd be happy to end up with a couple of picks in the 30's-40's, if it maximised our Round 1 and 2 hands in the next 2 drafts.

 

[Dyer'ere]

FOS at 2? I haven't heard anything concrete about him at 2, are we ruling the Viking out at 2? Officially, off the table at 2?

I got nuthen, Scoop. Norfs and Tauru are still the great unresolved in these scenarios.

They may take Tauru at #2. (A lot of exposure to management/media/members if they do. It's a PR thing. Optics. A very courageous decision.)

Or. They may see reason and - trade it down. OR take best available. Say FOS and whoever they can get with their traded 2025R1. These are prudent moves with much less exposure. Less risk of professional damage to Thursfield and Rawlings.

I reckon they'll trade down , Scoop, but here we are and they aint done it yet. You got anything?

 

[Redford]

I got nuthen, Scoop. Norfs and Tauru are still the great unresolved in these scenarios.

They may take Tauru at #2. (A lot of exposure to management/media/members if they do. It's a PR thing. Optics. A very courageous decision.)

Or. They may see reason and - trade it down. OR take best available. Say FOS and whoever they can get with their traded 2025R1. These are prudent moves with much less exposure. Less risk of professional damage to Thursfield and Rawlings.

I reckon they'll trade down , Scoop, but here we are and they aint done it yet. You got anything?

We get 2 (good chance still) and we're taking FOS Poirot. I will buy you a new hat if we don't.

 

[Mr Brightside]

Our first 4 (1;6:10:11 probably become 1, 7, 11;12) if we don’t trade up or out.

We do need to be dead certain we get these picks correct but these types of players are going to be very helpful.

I’m not going to be upset with 3 big mids and a key forward in those first 4.

Other needs would be a rover and a wingman or 2 with express pace and big big engines

I’m not fussed at all who we take Tf , I’ll hopefully be very happy who we’ve taken in 3 or 4 years

 

[Tigers of Old]

Just like Christmas as a kid, the anticipation can be as fun as the event itself. No different to the feeling of preseason hope before your sports team inevitably sucks or planning a holiday being almost as much fun as the holiday itself! Get aboard the draft dopamine express!

I don't mind the anticipation of the draft because that's when we find out who's going to play for us.
However the deep fascination with juniors who won't wear our jumper has always baffled me.

It's like standing over your presents all night trying to guess what's inside only to be disappointed if you don't get what you wanted.
Main difference with that analogy though is regardless you won't know if the gifts are any good for some time yet.

Remember being drafted is only a ticket to the big dance. There's no guarantees any single one of them will be good AFL players.

Dopamine? I find the seemingly endless speculation boring but hey that's just me. Each to their own if that's your thing.

 

[Scoop]

I got nuthen, Scoop. Norfs and Tauru are still the great unresolved in these scenarios.

They may take Tauru at #2. (A lot of exposure to management/media/members if they do. It's a PR thing. Optics. A very courageous decision.)

Or. They may see reason and - trade it down. OR take best available. Say FOS and whoever they can get with their traded 2025R1. These are prudent moves with much less exposure. Less risk of professional damage to Thursfield and Rawlings.

I reckon they'll trade down , Scoop, but here we are and they aint done it yet. You got anything?

I got zilch. I have no idea what North does. I'm happy with six. The only deal I would make with them must involve next year's first for North.

 

[Dyer'ere]

For what it’s worth Jake, I visualise you as more
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Than
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But don’t worry, it’s Chinatown Jake. Just Chinatown

Yes, fb. It is, after all, Chinatown.

 

[year of the tiger]

Exactly, it's about projecting into the future and establishing his ceiling once he reaches full development, maybe he reaches Daniel Jackson levels or maybe he doesn't. I'm just throwing out ideas and getting torched by people who have offered very little apart from generic Green comparisons.

And again, not one of you have come up with his AFL point of difference, just pause for a bit and consider what a player like Elliott Yeo brings to the table, why Bontempelli is such a force of nature, why Cripps has won two Brownlows, why Mundy is considered an AFL superstar. Smillie is 196 cm and hasn't demonstrated one elite trait, his kicking is good but not Rolls Royce special, those hanging their hats on this facet of his game probably need to reign in the expectations .

Like I previously mentioned, many of these tall midfielders who get drafted wind up playing a season or two and then they fade into oblivion. Some drafted in the same range as Smillie - Will Setterfield, Matthew Kennedy, Will Brodie, Tom Swift, Aiden Bonar just to name a few off the tope of my head.

But if you believe Smillie is different then fine, he's a 20 possession Tom Green at present, maybe he becomes a 35 possession Tom Green, but I can say with a fair degree of confidence that he won't be reaching those numbers anytime soon.

A question given he is being compared to Tommie Green, how long did it take a Green to become elite - I seem to recall he was in and out of that GWS side for a few years and not in their starting midfield. There was a knock from memory that he could get the ball but lacked pace.

As we know, projecting a players growth isnt straight forward otherwise there would never be a Fyfe or Rance picked so far back in the draft.

Clearly some in the industry believe he has potential not that I am advocating either way.

 

[year of the tiger]

I’m the same SoJ , I think Langford is as certain to be 150 gamer as any , in saying that I’m not unhappy to get Smillie , could be something special just has more question marks , could handle Lalor at 1 , Langford at 6 and Smillie at 10

Love to get my hands on our draft rating list post draft , be very interesting I’d imagine

I like the thinking but I would go Smith, Langford, Smillie then a KPF.

 

[TigerPort]

Can we hit 1000 by draft day?

Well we have added 50 pages in the last 7 days so 1000 might be a push by next Wednesday.

The 1000 pages will definitely be reached by end of November what with all the blow ups because we picked player X over player Y