2024 Draft Thread

[Mr Brightside]

Night one invitees (source: Twomey):

Ashcroft
FOS
Langford
Lalor
Smillie
Jagga
Draper
Reid
Tauru
Armstrong
Travaglia
Allan
Kako
Lombard
Lindsay
Berry
Whitlock X 2
Shanahan
Marshall

GETTABLE: HUGE draft preview, every club, where top guns go, new whispers, trade latest

Riley Beveridge and Cal Twomey provide the latest on key draft prospects, recruiters and coaches ahead of the 2024 draft next Wednesday

www.afl.com.au

Hard to believe we will have 6 or 7 of them as tigers next week

 

[bullus_hit]

I don't think anyone sees Tauru lasting until #10, particularly with Saints having 2 picks before #10. But certainly they wouldn't do it unless Tigers guaranteed they wouldn't take Tauru before their pick. So I can't see how Tigers do the deal and get Tauru.

North wants to split their picks, anyway you slice or dice it, there's still a risk Tauru gets snapped up early. If I'm North I would just pick him at 2 but this is a basket case of a club so don't discount stupidity.

 

[tigerlove]

North wants to split their picks, anyway you slice or dice it, there's still a risk Tauru gets snapped up early. If I'm North I would just pick him at 2 but this is a basket case of a club so don't discount stupidity.

Yep that's why I think they'll keep their #2 as we won't be giving up #6. Or maybe Saints can do something for them.

 

[Dev Tiger]

Night one invitees (source: Twomey):

Ashcroft
FOS
Langford
Lalor
Smillie
Jagga
Draper
Reid
Tauru
Armstrong
Travaglia
Allan
Kako
Lombard
Lindsay
Berry
Whitlock X 2
Shanahan
Marshall

GETTABLE: HUGE draft preview, every club, where top guns go, new whispers, trade latest

Riley Beveridge and Cal Twomey provide the latest on key draft prospects, recruiters and coaches ahead of the 2024 draft next Wednesday

www.afl.com.au

There are seventeen non academy/father son's on the list so if it goes to order the picks 18, 20,23 and 24 won't be on that list. So that group would include Hotton, Trainor, Dattoli, Hynes, Faull, Oliver, Hannaford, Dodson, Moraes, Gross, O'Farrell, Davis, Barrat, Ough, Alger, Sims, Mraz and Clarke. Lots of good options even if there aren't any sliders from the invites.

 

[Tigatale]

Pick 1 lack of success is because the team that gets pick #1 is usually the worst in the league by a long way and just don't recover within the player's career. Tigers aren't going to bid on Ashcroft at #1 imo. Makes no sense for Tigers and Brisbane to not agree to not bid as we could have kept the 500 or so extra points in player draft picks instead of giving it to them.

We did give them the extras for pick 20. Richmond overpaid. The points value we paid for 20 was the biggest ever discrepancy recorded. I expect we will bid on Ashcroft. We gave the Lions 1800 points for 900. If we don’t pick Ashcroft we are gifting them 600 more. Ridiculous to not go Ashcroft @ 1.

 

[Sintiger]

North wants to split their picks, anyway you slice or dice it, there's still a risk Tauru gets snapped up early. If I'm North I would just pick him at 2 but this is a basket case of a club so don't discount stupidity.

They want two first round picks and splitting pick 2 is one way of achieving that. The other way is keeping pick 2 and trading out their F1 to get another one during the draft.
For example if GWS was offered separately North's F1 for their Pick 15 and perhaps their F2 or F3 would they take it ?
Would we do a similar deal with pick 18 if we could work out the mechanics? There was talk of Port doing 13 and 29 for our pick 10 and if that happened we could swap pick 13 for North's F1 and still have 8 picks.
I think there is plenty to play out with North still.

 

[bullus_hit]

We did give them the extras for pick 20. Richmond overpaid. The points value we paid for 20 was the biggest ever discrepancy recorded. I expect we will bid on Ashcroft. We gave the Lions 1800 points for 900. If we don’t pick Ashcroft we are gifting them 600 more. Ridiculous to not go Ashcroft @ 1.

Absolutely, it's worth the trouble just to shield our first selection from pick 1 scrutiny.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Personally I think right now we are all reading too much into "links", as you rightly pointed out ...interviews

In my opinion the only thing that is certain about Richmond's picks right now is the Blair et al is not telling anyone, and that includes pick 1 and certainly pick 6.

On Blair blurting, Sin, Blair is not part of the mechanism of leaking directly about pick #6. There are those who say he has leaked about #1 FWIW. But who can be sure? In the end the information gets out. Who will go at #1, Sin? Once you know #1 you can know #2. And so on.

You've published above the numbers on Twomey's accuracy in the past couple of years. We measure. We judge.

When we compare Twomey's final mock draft to the final draft order we'll be able to measure again how knowable (to just Twomey) it was.

Some people are uncomfortable about Twomey getting intel on who goes where. But he gets it. It's just how the world works.

 

[tigerlove]

We did give them the extras for pick 20. Richmond overpaid. The points value we paid for 20 was the biggest ever discrepancy recorded. I expect we will bid on Ashcroft. We gave the Lions 1800 points for 900. If we don’t pick Ashcroft we are gifting them 600 more. Ridiculous to not go Ashcroft @ 1.

Yes but you miss my point. Why would you agree to throw 600 points down the drain when you could agree between you to not bid and in effect share the 600 points between you? Makes little sense to throw the points away. In effect a Pick #31 or Pick #48 & #49 thrown away. I am 95% confident we will not bid at #1 for Ashcroft.

 

[Don’t Argue]

In a world of unknowns we'd be mad to overlook the best key position prospect in the draft. What a beautiful scenario for Richmond, the downside minimal as Tauru surely becomes a defender if he busts up forward. This is what I'm harping on about when I refer to managing risk, this particular scenario is so low risk that it would be negligent to let Tauru slide.

You’ve got a history of locking in on a player Bully and pushing them quite relentlessly hard.
I actually admire your conviction.
However,Tarau is not the best key position player in the pool using his body of work. He’s speculative with a projected huge upside. He’s also glamorous and you’re not the only draft watcher he’s seduced. But he’s a defender atm that is being willed by plenty to become a key forward. You seem satisfied if that experiment fails to consign him to the back line. It’s not what we need
Armstrong is the best key position forward in the pool and deserves to be our first tall picked to fulfil our pressing need for a tall forward

 

[bullus_hit]

Yep that's why I think they'll keep their #2 as we won't be giving up #6. Or maybe Saints can do something for them.

That would be an excellent outcome because we then have free passage to Tauru at pick 6 (presuming Melbourne aren't planning a heist).

 

[Sintiger]

On Blair blurting, Sin, Blair is not part of the mechanism of leaking directly about pick #6. There are those who say he has leaked about #1 FWIW. But who can be sure? In the end the information gets out. Who will go at #1, Sin? Once you know #1 you can know #2. And so on.

You've published above the numbers on Twomey's accuracy in the past couple of years. We measure. We judge.

When we compare Twomey's final mock draft to the final draft order we'll be able to measure again how knowable (to just Twomey) it was.

Some people are uncomfortable about Twomey getting intel on who goes where. But he gets it. It's just how the world works.

I know how accurate he is Jack but I have never seen him so equivocal. He is struggling imo and part of the reason is that we hold 8 picks and we aren't saying anything.
All he has is that we have talked to players, some more than others

 

[Dyer'ere]

Yes but you miss my point. Why would you agree to throw 600 points down the drain when you could agree between you to not bid and in effect share the 600 points between you? Makes little sense to throw the points away. In effect a Pick #31 or Pick #48 & #49 thrown away. I am 95% confident we will not bid at #1 for Ashcroft.

Exactly, tl. (IIRC 3000pts - 2517pts *.8 = 386.4) But anyway, as you say, where's our half? Twomey tells us we won't bid.

 

[Leysy Days]

Night one invitees (source: Twomey):

Ashcroft
FOS
Langford
Lalor
Smillie
Jagga
Draper
Reid
Tauru
Armstrong
Travaglia
Allan
Kako
Lombard
Lindsay
Berry
Whitlock X 2
Shanahan
Marshall

GETTABLE: HUGE draft preview, every club, where top guns go, new whispers, trade latest

Riley Beveridge and Cal Twomey provide the latest on key draft prospects, recruiters and coaches ahead of the 2024 draft next Wednesday

www.afl.com.au

Hotton and Trainor the two notable omissions.

Obviously concussion related but it is some slide. He was commonly spoken about as a top 3 pick halfway through the year.

Now not getting an invite to night for the top 20 players.

 

[Tigatale]

Absolutely, it's worth the trouble just to shield our first selection from pick 1 scrutiny.

I’d be happy to go Ashcroft @ 1 and Marshall @ 11. Marshall is a gun and I’d be happy to have him. Brisbane would be forced into a precarious position.

 

[TGM]

With Young being elevated to the main list, how many players can we actually draft?

 

[Ripplestick]

The way Twomey was talking, the only suiter for North's pick 2 is Adelaide and even then it is unlikely.

Saying that North will LIKELY keep pick 2 and try to get a pick between 10-20 using their future first.

No discussion about the RFC and pick 2.


Other points of note around the top 5/6:

We don't seem keen on Draper.

Voss has recently met with all of Lalor, FOS, Smith, Draper, Langford.

All the clubs believe we will take Smillie, but Twomey questioned whether we would try and gamble on him getting to pick 10.

 

[Tigatale]

Yes but you miss my point. Why would you agree to throw 600 points down the drain when you could agree between you to not bid and in effect share the 600 points between you? Makes little sense to throw the points away. In effect a Pick #31 or Pick #48 & #49 thrown away. I am 95% confident we will not bid at #1 for Ashcroft.

The point I’m making is we are not sharing the 600 points as we’ve already paid too much for pick 20.

 

[bullus_hit]

You’ve got a history of locking in on a player Bully and pushing them quite relentlessly hard.
I actually admire your conviction.
However,Tarau is not the best key position player in the pool using his body of work. He’s speculative with a projected huge upside. He’s also glamorous and you’re not the only draft watcher he’s seduced. But he’s a defender atm that is being willed by plenty to become a key forward. You seem satisfied if that experiment fails to consign him to the back line. It’s not what we need
Armstrong is the best key position forward in the pool and deserves to be our first tall picked to fulfil our pressing need for a tall forward

Tauru reads like Naughton, it's an ideal scenario because he's not your typical boom/bust forward, his floor is as safe as houses. I would pay a premium in this instance because his skill set matches that of a forward, his set shot kicking not bad at all, perhaps not a dead eye like Armstrong but aerially he is far superior. With so much reluctance to recruit talls due to fear of failure, this is a golden opportunity to buy a key forward ticket and not have to stress about missing out on a core player. At the absolute worst, we play him in Balta's old position and leave Noah up forward. This is the perfect play if you want to minimise risk. The opportunity cost of not taking him is missing out on yet another excellent key position player.

Armstrong is boom/bust, if he struggles as a forward he probably won't make it in the AFL. That's a bigger risk than having Tauru play as an intercept defender.

 

[caesar]

That would be an excellent outcome because we then have free passage to Tauru at pick 6 (presuming Melbourne aren't planning a heist).

Melbourne will definitely go with a mid at 5 IMO