With Armstrong. Yeah he kicked 27 goals from 10 games for Sandy.
One thing overlooked a bit. Is he was playing full forward in the most dominant midfield/team in the league.
Check out 2 of his finals games here where he kicked 4 in each (they didn't do highlights in the other one cos he didn't touch it).
Great he kicked 4 - But honestly how many would he have kicked (and what influence would he have had) if playing for the opposition?
Think there might be one overhead mark in them. In fact he's beaten pretty pointlessly when in an overhead contest most times. Goes to ground, slow to recover etc. Watching him in full games backs that up.
All lead-ups, largely against a defence trying to withstand a tidal wave of ball coming in. Not many of those goals are his own doing, outside timing his lead and kicking straight. Just reckon the luxury he gets playing like he does now might struggle at AFL level.
Compare him to the Viking. Who is better overhead, gets waaayyyyyy more air, heaps better second efforts, greater ground game and tackles better and is dual sided.
And your right, he doesn't have the runs on the board as a forward like Armstrong. But that's cos he didn't have the opportunity to after missing most of the previous 18 months of footy.
Have a look at these highlights (yes they are highlights). His aerial game is top notch. If anyone can show me Armstrong consistently doing any of that will be amazed.
There's also a sneaky good clip of him making his senior debut for Warragul last year.
You mentioned Tauru being the bigger risk. But to Leysy the bigger risk is taking a neat, limited lead-up footballer early in the draft Vs The Viking who's traits and capabilities (he plays most in style like Charlie Curnow ILO - he'll stand on your head and if doesn't mark it he'll still be first up and beat you to the ground ball) means his ceiling is not close to known yet.
Drafting match winners and champions is the first step to Premierships ILO. And FJ knows how to draft them.