2024 Draft Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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2024 Draft Thread

mrposhman said:
I've said this same thing myself, however there becomes a balance.

If GC refuse to deal with Pick 6, then Rioli doesn't leave and comes back and puts in 100%. He's genuinely not 1 to act out of spite IMO, and will put in 100% for him.
However, he has asked to leave and if a strong offer is put forward for him, then I expect he expects to leave. Whilst we may posture that 6 and 12 is getting them to overpay (and there are reasons why we want that to happen), would you if you were in Dan's position?

A happy medium will occur. the Suns will pay up, but it seems that many here think we will hold them by the balls and squeeze squeeze squeeze, but I don't think we'll do it that hard. Afterall, "winning" the trade period gets you nowhere, Essendon is a great example, having good relationships with other clubs for future trades is also something that should be considered in any dealings.

I do think a lot of non Tiger fans under rate Dan, its clear to see on BF where people are saying he's not worth Pick 6. He absolutely is, but is he worth a lot more than that at 27? I'm not sure. I would think if we want Pick 12, we would need to be giving back a future 2nd.
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Points for next year?
Instead of a f2 how about a f3
mrposhman said:
I don't think they do, but if they want to bring in Ashcroft AND Marshall (and I suspect they do), then they will need a lot more points this year. They currently have 1394. They may get some by trading out some players (Robertson possibly) and obviously will trade their 1st back this year, but I don't think they will generate enough points to get those 2 by just doing those things. They will need to involve future picks and bearing in mind the expected reduction to point values next year, their 2nd next year isn't worth as much, so it brings their 1st into the discussion. I guess they could generate enough for Ashcroft and take the balance into next year, which will wipe out their 2nd anyway, and possibly their 3rd. They will generally be better by trading.

Doing a bit of maths and lets say we are generous.

For Pick 15, we give them picks 39, 41, 47 and 57 (1,356 points) and promise not to bid at 1. Thats worth an extra 386 points from Pick 2, so essentially all up thats a premium of 630 points. I don't think we will offer them quite as much as that, but neither will anyone else. No-one is paying them a premium of 600+ points for Pick 15 IMO.

But lets say we do that generous deal above, it takes their pick value from 1394 points up to 1,638.

If Ashcroft is big on at 2, the required points value to bid is 2,013.6 points so they already have a shortfall, and haven't even big on Marshall yet.

Even if they get something for Robertson, I'd guess having spent most of the year in the 2's, then he's probably worth a pick in the 40's. Potentially that gets them another 350-400 so getting close to Ashcroft, but still nothing for Marshall.

I can't see how they get this done without using at a future pick. I don't have a copy of the new DVI, but their future 2nd may not be enough to get the points for this year, hence they may be best to trade their F1. If we could get some sort of mid range F2 from someone in a trade, maybe this could be used to gain access to their 1st (ie. buy their F1 with that mid range F2 - not ours - and an extra pick this year).

There will be heaps of options but I can't see a way that Brissy can do this without future pick trading into this years draft.
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But why does Brisbane trade if they lose their f1?
If they dont trade then their 15 isnt sufficient and their f1 is downrated. Then Marshall is bid around 25 so they'd need both their late picks and a pick around 48 (mabe a robertson trade)
The same result without trading.

If they trade their f2 and even f3. The points are probably reduced to nothing but we dont care. Thore points only important to match a bid.

So for 15 and f2 (approx 30) we give 39, 41, 47 and 57.
Thats approx fair. We might want to push for their f3.
 
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toothless said:
If we obtain pick 12 from GC & Hotton/Trainor are still on the board (after taking Smith, O'Sullivan, & Lalor) do we take one of them?
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I'd be hoping for Berry, Lindsey or Allan are still on the board.
The short answer is there should be good options at 12
 
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Harry said:
we're not getting 6 and 12 for rioli. Maybe 6 and 26, 6 and 35, or 6 and 20 for rioli and 29.
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And that is fine we can accept #6 & #26 or #6 & #35 for Rioli

Now if they want salary contribution this then becomes a separate trade altogether

So Gold Coast Suns its upto you to decide what you need

$500k x 3 years salary contribution will cost pick #12
 
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mrposhman said:
I don't think they do, but if they want to bring in Ashcroft AND Marshall (and I suspect they do), then they will need a lot more points this year. They currently have 1394. They may get some by trading out some players (Robertson possibly) and obviously will trade their 1st back this year, but I don't think they will generate enough points to get those 2 by just doing those things. They will need to involve future picks and bearing in mind the expected reduction to point values next year, their 2nd next year isn't worth as much, so it brings their 1st into the discussion. I guess they could generate enough for Ashcroft and take the balance into next year, which will wipe out their 2nd anyway, and possibly their 3rd. They will generally be better by trading.

Doing a bit of maths and lets say we are generous.

For Pick 15, we give them picks 39, 41, 47 and 57 (1,356 points) and promise not to bid at 1. Thats worth an extra 386 points from Pick 2, so essentially all up thats a premium of 630 points. I don't think we will offer them quite as much as that, but neither will anyone else. No-one is paying them a premium of 600+ points for Pick 15 IMO.

But lets say we do that generous deal above, it takes their pick value from 1394 points up to 1,638.

If Ashcroft is big on at 2, the required points value to bid is 2,013.6 points so they already have a shortfall, and haven't even big on Marshall yet.

Even if they get something for Robertson, I'd guess having spent most of the year in the 2's, then he's probably worth a pick in the 40's. Potentially that gets them another 350-400 so getting close to Ashcroft, but still nothing for Marshall.

I can't see how they get this done without using at a future pick. I don't have a copy of the new DVI, but their future 2nd may not be enough to get the points for this year, hence they may be best to trade their F1. If we could get some sort of mid range F2 from someone in a trade, maybe this could be used to gain access to their 1st (ie. buy their F1 with that mid range F2 - not ours - and an extra pick this year).

There will be heaps of options but I can't see a way that Brissy can do this without future pick trading into this years draft.
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Thought that the points values for the first roughly 50 picks wasn't changing, just that the value of the late junk picks was being wiped out.
Can't remember the exact numbers I posted on this earlier, but for Brisvegas to ensure enough points for Ashcroft if matching a bid at pick 2, we would need to be providing Brisvegas with pick 29 as well. Then they still need points for wherever Marshall is bid at.

Also handing over all of our picks from 29 through 57 leaves us with no working capital if we need to add some sort of sweeteners to finalise our trade deals or try to move picks further up the draft. Chasing the Brisvegas deal is putting a hell of a lot of eggs in one basket.
 
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Teckor said:
Won't get 6 and 12 without giving something significant back.

Talk is of Collingwood's future 1st + Noble for 12 (and maybe something else back). If so you can forget about Richmond getting 6 + 12.
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Why would the pies give up a more than likely top 5 pick for pick 12 this year?
They've been done over once already with the Shultz trade.
 
mrposhman said:
Pick 12 is meaningless to them. Its a commodity. They will trade it to whoever gives them the best offer, whether that includes Noble or not. They won't be taking it to the draft therefore its a commodity to sell.
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And we have a contracted commodity for which the Suns have been into since the start of the year.They can't afford not to let it slip.
 
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mrposhman said:
I've said this same thing myself, however there becomes a balance.

If GC refuse to deal with Pick 6, then Rioli doesn't leave and comes back and puts in 100%. He's genuinely not 1 to act out of spite IMO, and will put in 100% for him.
However, he has asked to leave and if a strong offer is put forward for him, then I expect he expects to leave. Whilst we may posture that 6 and 12 is getting them to overpay (and there are reasons why we want that to happen), would you if you were in Dan's position?

A happy medium will occur. the Suns will pay up, but it seems that many here think we will hold them by the balls and squeeze squeeze squeeze, but I don't think we'll do it that hard. Afterall, "winning" the trade period gets you nowhere, Essendon is a great example, having good relationships with other clubs for future trades is also something that should be considered in any dealings.

I do think a lot of non Tiger fans under rate Dan, its clear to see on BF where people are saying he's not worth Pick 6. He absolutely is, but is he worth a lot more than that at 27? I'm not sure. I would think if we want Pick 12, we would need to be giving back a future 2nd.
Click to expand...
Give them a f2 back who cares if the early reports that next years draft isn't deep then pick 12 this year is worth more than next years f2.
 
Brodders17 said:
Definitely top 5 of his draft.
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Very good. However, arguably:

1. Kane Lambert
2. Jack Sinclair
3. Jason Castagna
4. Adam Saad
5. Nic Newman
6. Jayden Short
7. Mason Cox
8. Conor McKenna
9. Lewis Melican
10. Reilly O'Brien
 
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spook said:
Very good. However, arguably:

1. Kane Lambert
2. Jack Sinclair
3. Jason Castagna
4. Adam Saad
5. Nic Newman
6. Jayden Short
7. Mason Cox
8. Conor McKenna
9. Lewis Melican
10. Reilly O'Brien
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Yeah, I had a quick look at that draft- Short could be ranked anywhere between 2- 10.

But I didn't want to ruin my joke with facts.
 
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