2024 Draft Thread

[eZyT]

B&F in a premiership, you think??

Perhaps. Do you take jayden short top 5 in his draft year brodders?

 

[Steely Danzig]

Bit o patience ToOheys, it'll be here soon enough.

"Stop wishing your life away" is what my mum would say.

 

[tigerdell]

I've said this same thing myself, however there becomes a balance.

If GC refuse to deal with Pick 6, then Rioli doesn't leave and comes back and puts in 100%. He's genuinely not 1 to act out of spite IMO, and will put in 100% for him.
However, he has asked to leave and if a strong offer is put forward for him, then I expect he expects to leave. Whilst we may posture that 6 and 12 is getting them to overpay (and there are reasons why we want that to happen), would you if you were in Dan's position?

A happy medium will occur. the Suns will pay up, but it seems that many here think we will hold them by the balls and squeeze squeeze squeeze, but I don't think we'll do it that hard. Afterall, "winning" the trade period gets you nowhere, Essendon is a great example, having good relationships with other clubs for future trades is also something that should be considered in any dealings.

I do think a lot of non Tiger fans under rate Dan, its clear to see on BF where people are saying he's not worth Pick 6. He absolutely is, but is he worth a lot more than that at 27? I'm not sure. I would think if we want Pick 12, we would need to be giving back a future 2nd.

Points for next year?
Instead of a f2 how about a f3

I don't think they do, but if they want to bring in Ashcroft AND Marshall (and I suspect they do), then they will need a lot more points this year. They currently have 1394. They may get some by trading out some players (Robertson possibly) and obviously will trade their 1st back this year, but I don't think they will generate enough points to get those 2 by just doing those things. They will need to involve future picks and bearing in mind the expected reduction to point values next year, their 2nd next year isn't worth as much, so it brings their 1st into the discussion. I guess they could generate enough for Ashcroft and take the balance into next year, which will wipe out their 2nd anyway, and possibly their 3rd. They will generally be better by trading.

Doing a bit of maths and lets say we are generous.

For Pick 15, we give them picks 39, 41, 47 and 57 (1,356 points) and promise not to bid at 1. Thats worth an extra 386 points from Pick 2, so essentially all up thats a premium of 630 points. I don't think we will offer them quite as much as that, but neither will anyone else. No-one is paying them a premium of 600+ points for Pick 15 IMO.

But lets say we do that generous deal above, it takes their pick value from 1394 points up to 1,638.

If Ashcroft is big on at 2, the required points value to bid is 2,013.6 points so they already have a shortfall, and haven't even big on Marshall yet.

Even if they get something for Robertson, I'd guess having spent most of the year in the 2's, then he's probably worth a pick in the 40's. Potentially that gets them another 350-400 so getting close to Ashcroft, but still nothing for Marshall.

I can't see how they get this done without using at a future pick. I don't have a copy of the new DVI, but their future 2nd may not be enough to get the points for this year, hence they may be best to trade their F1. If we could get some sort of mid range F2 from someone in a trade, maybe this could be used to gain access to their 1st (ie. buy their F1 with that mid range F2 - not ours - and an extra pick this year).

There will be heaps of options but I can't see a way that Brissy can do this without future pick trading into this years draft.

But why does Brisbane trade if they lose their f1?
If they dont trade then their 15 isnt sufficient and their f1 is downrated. Then Marshall is bid around 25 so they'd need both their late picks and a pick around 48 (mabe a robertson trade)
The same result without trading.

If they trade their f2 and even f3. The points are probably reduced to nothing but we dont care. Thore points only important to match a bid.

So for 15 and f2 (approx 30) we give 39, 41, 47 and 57.
Thats approx fair. We might want to push for their f3.

 

[tigerdell]

Future first ideally for them but I can't find a suitor, can you?

You don't think swans or giants, the top 6 wouldn't trade a f1 for 12?

 

[tigerdell]

If we obtain pick 12 from GC & Hotton/Trainor are still on the board (after taking Smith, O'Sullivan, & Lalor) do we take one of them?

I'd be hoping for Berry, Lindsey or Allan are still on the board.
The short answer is there should be good options at 12