do they have more Academy kids next year? If not, what's the incentive for them to trade out their future first?
I don't think they do, but if they want to bring in Ashcroft AND Marshall (and I suspect they do), then they will need a lot more points this year. They currently have 1394. They may get some by trading out some players (Robertson possibly) and obviously will trade their 1st back this year, but I don't think they will generate enough points to get those 2 by just doing those things. They will need to involve future picks and bearing in mind the expected reduction to point values next year, their 2nd next year isn't worth as much, so it brings their 1st into the discussion. I guess they could generate enough for Ashcroft and take the balance into next year, which will wipe out their 2nd anyway, and possibly their 3rd. They will generally be better by trading.
Doing a bit of maths and lets say we are generous.
For Pick 15, we give them picks 39, 41, 47 and 57 (1,356 points) and promise not to bid at 1. Thats worth an extra 386 points from Pick 2, so essentially all up thats a premium of 630 points. I don't think we will offer them quite as much as that, but neither will anyone else. No-one is paying them a premium of 600+ points for Pick 15 IMO.
But lets say we do that generous deal above, it takes their pick value from 1394 points up to 1,638.
If Ashcroft is big on at 2, the required points value to bid is 2,013.6 points so they already have a shortfall, and haven't even big on Marshall yet.
Even if they get something for Robertson, I'd guess having spent most of the year in the 2's, then he's probably worth a pick in the 40's. Potentially that gets them another 350-400 so getting close to Ashcroft, but still nothing for Marshall.
I can't see how they get this done without using at a future pick. I don't have a copy of the new DVI, but their future 2nd may not be enough to get the points for this year, hence they may be best to trade their F1. If we could get some sort of mid range F2 from someone in a trade, maybe this could be used to gain access to their 1st (ie. buy their F1 with that mid range F2 - not ours - and an extra pick this year).
There will be heaps of options but I can't see a way that Brissy can do this without future pick trading into this years draft.