2024 Draft Thread

[jokershoppe]

In each game I saw him I was really impressed with Bo Allan. What do the sages think of him and more to the point, any risk with go home factor? Would we prefer Victorians?

The go home factor is currently huge,especially if u bottom out.

 

[Findthenextdusty]

If we get the picks we expect for Rioli, Bolton, Baker and Graham, then we won't be using all the picks that we have. Of course there is a massive benefit to us to trade into another 1st rounder.

I agree there is a benefit but no reason to apy overs, put simply we should bid on Ashcroft at 1 and make Brisbane pay overs to get the points they need to match. It is negligent to give them any favours

 

[tigerlove]

I'd read something on BF (I know) from some Crows supporters, that the word out of the club is that they aren't sold on Draper, and Lalor is in their sights. I guess they've got history of getting that powerful midfielder out of stoppages that can also impact forward in having taken Dangerfield all those years ago.

Lalor looks pretty good to me. Tough at the ball, good user, can take a mark. Has a bit of a don't argue on him as well. Would be wrapt if he was still around at #6.

I keep watching Smillie and I just can't see it. Gets caught alot, turns the ball over often and very few effective disposals. Hardly see him take a strong mark which is weird for a 194cm player. It's still Langford for me.

 

[jokershoppe]

And its this part that still makes me think that this draft is being overrated a bit. It's ok, but not off the charts like a lot of people keep saying. And making it difficult to pick which ones are going to be successful when its so even or flat from 1 to 20, throws in another question mark about it.

Where are the definitive, 99.9% certainties in this draft ? The ones totally locked and loaded with modern day attributes ? Where are the Harley Reid's, the Nick Daicos', the JHF's ? Specifically, the ones with explosive power and hard, quick running ability with good boots to match ? I don't see it in this draft.

Yes, there's some handy looking players that have a bit of agility eg Jagga, FOS, Reid. Yes, there's some good inside types. But where are these express power units that go hard, fast, all game long like Harley, Daicos, JHF, Warner, Butters, Goulden, Max Holmes etc.

I don't quite see them in this draft at the moment. Maybe a few will step up, but when I think of previous drafts and what I was seeing at the time, I just don't see some of these essential modern day qualities.

This draft on it's own, even with a stack of picks, isn't going to be some massive platform for success in years to come. Its gonna take another 3 or 4 drafts on top of it.

I might be happy enough to try and split some of our picks into earlier picks in 2025 for the fact. Dunno....

Fins abilities are not common they are numerous and absolutely elite,he moves like 99.99% can't, is a 100% afl quality player.

 

[MD Jazz]

Just looking through some of the early picks that haven't (or don't look like) working out.

A couple spring to mind - Hobbs and Ward. Ward still has time but they are both currently struggling to make inroads into the AFL system.

Reckon it's because whilst decent all round players, they are both a bit vanilla. They aren't overly quick, or agile, they don't have a step, OK but not great kicks, not especially big etc etc.

Bit of a believer that whilst most footballers (not just mids) at AFL level need an overall solid skillset, they also need a trait that is elite - be it kicking, pace, endurance, smarts, overhead marking, brute strength, agility/athleticism, vision etc.

Without it, reckon it makes it hard.

Yeh, you look at a guy like Tom Mitchell. Elite at finding the ball in contested situations. Always had that ability, demonstrated it at every level. Not quick, not great overhead, agility not great but strong over the ball and great vision. And the PIes used him perfectly.

The two you mention, Hobbs & Ward, do not have any of those outstanding mid traits.

Jagga has that same ball winning ability and vision as Mitchell, yet he also has speed and agility. And from the vision I have seen he is great at putting the ball to advantage of his teammate. This talk about him not being damaging is surely more a comment that he simply isn't a long drilling kick because IMO that ability to find a teammate in a better position is damaging. And his handballing is elite.

I understand the talk of him already training in an elite way, focusing purely on football etc therfore his scope for improvement may not be as high as a FOS, Lalor etc, but gee he already does so much really well. And he keeps showing the same elite traits at every level he plays. Surely he just keeps getting better too.

Would love to see how many scoring chains he is involved in. I cannot understand the continued "knocks" on him. He strikes me as the safest/best long term choice in the draft.

 

[MD Jazz]

This is what worries me about a few of the higher rated mids. You typically need speed or agility or better both (plus size) to be elite at AFL. Draper, FOS, Lalor tick all those boxes. Jagga, Smillie, Langford, Reid - don't tick some of these boxes.

I understand there are lots of other factors, e.g. ball winning, clean hands, kicking ability, hard at it etc...but speed, agility and size feel like table stakes. It's probably only our pick #1 where we have a chance to get all 3 attributes.

Didn't we draft Collier-Dawkins because of his size/athleticism and his attack at the contest? Pity he couldn't find the pill, much less have the vision etc to use it.

Jagga loves congestion. Jagga reads the ball better than FOS/Draper/Lalor and finds it more than any of them (in the biggest games).

Hoping we get Jagga & one of those 3.

 

[Smoking Aces]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1831513415166390388

 

[Brodders17]

And its this part that still makes me think that this draft is being overrated a bit. It's ok, but not off the charts like a lot of people keep saying. And making it difficult to pick which ones are going to be successful when its so even or flat from 1 to 20, throws in another question mark about it.

Where are the definitive, 99.9% certainties in this draft ? The ones totally locked and loaded with modern day attributes ? Where are the Harley Reid's, the Nick Daicos', the JHF's ? Specifically, the ones with explosive power and hard, quick running ability with good boots to match ? I don't see it in this draft.

Yes, there's some handy looking players that have a bit of agility eg Jagga, FOS, Reid. Yes, there's some good inside types. But where are these express power units that go hard, fast, all game long like Harley, Daicos, JHF, Warner, Butters, Goulden, Max Holmes etc.

I don't quite see them in this draft at the moment. Maybe a few will step up, but when I think of previous drafts and what I was seeing at the time, I just don't see some of these essential modern day qualities.

This draft on it's own, even with a stack of picks, isn't going to be some massive platform for success in years to come. Its gonna take another 3 or 4 drafts on top of it.

I might be happy enough to try and split some of our picks into earlier picks in 2025 for the fact. Dunno....

Im no junior expert, but it wont stop me having an opinion. What you have said probably re-enforces my view we should trade up to get multiple top 6 selections, rather than going for bulk.
The likelihood of guys drafted after the top 6 (or so) being elite are low. there might be plenty who have successful AFL careers, but drafting 8 "good" footballers will only put us back on par with teams that have had access to top 10 selections for the last 10 years but drafting 2 or 3 "elite" footballers could really drive our return to the top. and Smith, FOS, Draper and Lalor look like they have those elite qualities.

If we trade for 2025 picks, i think we need to trade with teams that expect to be near the top of the ladder- the Lions, Power etc. They will be more likely to accept late teen picks for their F1 and can only slide. Teams in the bottom half of the ladder will a trade that gives a bit of insurance in case they slide lower on the ladder.

 

[Brodders17]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1831513415166390388

So if i understand correctly, Baker is going to Freo, and even if he went to the WEagles there is no way pick 3 would be involved?

 

[Teckor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1831513415166390388

Goes to shows that yesterday Jon Ralph spent his time reading the PRE 2024 Draft Thread.

 

[tigerlove]

Didn't we draft Collier-Dawkins because of his size/athleticism and his attack at the contest? Pity he couldn't find the pill, much less have the vision etc to use it.

I'm still not sure why we drafted him if midfielder was our aim. Only averaged 12 disposals in championships and 18 at U18 level. Was never a big ball winner. I guess at Pick 20, the best midfielders are gone.

 

[eZyT]

I reckon the notion that other years there was a stand out no.1 and this year there isn't,

is a good thing

this year there's 4 standout No.1's.

isn't that better?

further, they have to line up against their peers, so a deeper draft is harder to stand out in.

JHF and Harley Reid are fantastic players,

they play in an eye catching and appealing way that fans and commentators love watching.

but I haven't seen any data to suggest

that they were any better at 17/18,

than the top few in this draft?

in fact, I think theres data to suggest a few in this draft are better.

without denigrating HR, hes incredible, fend-offs dont win flags; clearance, pressure, defence and ruckman do. (oh yeah, that right, and Dusty)

 

[eZyT]

In each game I saw him I was really impressed with Bo Allan. What do the sages think of him and more to the point, any risk with go home factor? Would we prefer Victorians?

has what we need.

he is explosive, defensive, big and quick.

he should do what Langford and Smilie (top 10) do, but a bit cheaper (15-20),

and I reckon significantly quicker.

I dont really believe in the Go-Home factor,

I reckon it's more character, and whether they're a sook or not.

and RFC has been pretty flawless in excluding them.

I 'd be stoked if we nab him late teens/early 20's

 

[eZyT]

he moves like 99.99% can't

whats he do? get around by left-handed cartwheels?

not aimed at you JS,

but I think this thread is losing its (hive) mind.

we need to be careful with these 10 first rounders,

that we dont have 15,000 members in the loony bin

 

[taztiger4]

Geez....Gerreyn is miles ahead of Samson. He competes hard and can mark and kick.
Slow yes...but would be a big target forward and competes in the ruck around the ground. Not an AFL class key forward but big enough and tough enough to be valuable....Samson is not!

you do realise that this is a colts (Under 19) game ?

 

[nikolasmia]

Just looking through some of the early picks that haven't (or don't look like) working out.

A couple spring to mind - Hobbs and Ward. Ward still has time but they are both currently struggling to make inroads into the AFL system.

Reckon it's because whilst decent all round players, they are both a bit vanilla. They aren't overly quick, or agile, they don't have a step, OK but not great kicks, not especially big etc etc.

Bit of a believer that whilst most footballers (not just mids) at AFL level need an overall solid skillset, they also need a trait that is elite - be it kicking, pace, endurance, smarts, overhead marking, brute strength, agility/athleticism, vision etc.

Without it, reckon it makes it hard.

Agree Leysy

That's why the best strategy we can take is to draft the most talented dynamic athletes in the draft pool, the players, that while have an element of risk, if they make it, are game changers and match winners

That's why I want Fos, Lalor and Hotton drafted on draft night

That is a high risk, high reward strategy that could win us a flag in 5 years , we have enough picks to take a chance

 

[DuD_Delist]

There is one massive massive flaw in this argument.

What you posted are highlights of Butters year. A best of. Anything that wasn't amazing gets edited out.

The only like for like comparison to this are Mick's highlights from the champs - even this doesn't even include his coates/vfl games. Butters is from all year and most in a lesser grade (Coates).

Honest question - If you only saw this from Jagga what would your opinion be? How is the last play? Move of the year!

A lot different yeah. And this is the thing - because he's been at the pointy end of draft discussion all year, because we've known we'll have pick 1, because he's one of the few (only?) at the top end up fronting up each week and performing, because he played VFL for us, because we get packages each week of every involvement - good and bad.

He is the single most watched and critiqued junior in PRE history. By a mile.

Which means he's on display more than anyone else to get picked apart with every little flaw.

Apples and Apples.

Think we should do everything in our power to get a FOS & Jagga Combo.
No IF he lasts too pick 6 lets make sure of it.
Think about our future starting mids-Fos/Jagga & Sharp.

 

[Don’t Argue]

Agree Leysy

That's why the best strategy we can take is to draft the most talented dynamic athletes in the draft pool, the players, that while have an element of risk, if they make it, are game changers and match winners

That's why I want Fos, Lalor and Hotton drafted on draft night

That is a high risk, high reward strategy that could win us a flag in 5 years , we have enough picks to take a chance

If you’re a gambler and are prepared to die by your own sword, then this is the correct strategy.
But 100k members may find out where you live if it doesn’t work out.
I’d prefer a safer bet myself. Smith or Draper for rolled gold pick number 1, FOS or Lalor next for the edgier pick and Reid or Langford/Allen the next in line for the risk reward

 

[YeOldeTiger]

Been thinking about the concerns about Jager's size. Everyone is concerned about his ability to take contact at the next level.

FOS has missed so much footy this year through non-serious issues, basically the ability of his body to take contact and play week to week.

Isn't that contact going to be more extreme at the next level? So much discussion about Jager's ability to take contact when he has shown that he can back up week to week and perform but FOS's body hasn't allowed him to put together a body of work.

Whose body is better equipped to cop midfielder contact at the next level?

A broken finger, a broken thumb and a severe corky. I wouldn't be too worried about those. They can happen to anyone.

He recently had a sore hip flexor which is a small concern but more likely to do with him finally playing some footy after a long time off and 18yo bodies growing and getting knocked about. FOS has that wiry build (so does Jagga) that usually shows a lot of durability.

You can hardly question his ability to take contact when he's had broken fingers, that's just bad luck.

 

[YeOldeTiger]

This is what worries me about a few of the higher rated mids. You typically need speed or agility or better both (plus size) to be elite at AFL. Draper, FOS, Lalor tick all those boxes. Jagga, Smillie, Langford, Reid - don't tick some of these boxes.

I understand there are lots of other factors, e.g. ball winning, clean hands, kicking ability, hard at it etc...but speed, agility and size feel like table stakes. It's probably only our pick #1 where we have a chance to get all 3 attributes.

If you're saying that Jagga and Reid don't have agility/speed you haven't been watching.