2024 Draft Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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2024 Draft Thread

Don’t Argue said:
I asked Benny Gale recently why we’re always last for free kick differential. I told him not to give me the story about it being our game style as the Suns are now first for differential with our old coach and the same game style as ours. He said lucky Balme wasn’t there to hear the conversation as he would have needed another triple bypass.
In private later he asked me if it was true about Suns being first and when I said yes he scratched his head and said “*smile* me”
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Club80 ban coming





:ROFLMAO:
 
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Where can I find the Draft Day calendar countdown equivalent?

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Thanks to all for their contributions to this thread...well, thanks to those of you have an informed opinion anyway. The rest of us appreciate the differing views and and analysis. It's going to be interesting to see what happens after all this energy is expended and draft night actually arrives.

I'm curious though. So many rankings of best to least best of what seems to be a (largely) agreed group of 12-20 players. But history shows that in any year there will be many busts in the top fifteen. Yes, I get that this appears to be a deep year. But, I wonder, what are the rankings for the highest chance to be a bust. Because even in a draft that is predicted to be deep there will surely be more than a handful of complete busts in those being touted

It seems that most agree that Jagga is going to be a player (just argument about how good) and that Smillie could be anything but might also be a bust

I wonder who others think are top 5 at risk of being a complete bust out of those that are touted as top 15
 
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Really cant see any busts.
Smillie is slow and rough by foot..so at risk of man child problems.
Every other player looks excellent.
I see no busts likely in the first 15. On the contrary, I see likely surprises past 20 ie Gross Urquart....many more.
There are SA and WA players we have little knowledge of that are sure to surprise.
It is a draft with no H Reid but multiple next level players. Great to have 5 or 6 picks.
 
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Jewell said:
Thanks to all for their contributions to this thread...well, thanks to those of you have an informed opinion anyway. The rest of us appreciate the differing views and and analysis. It's going to be interesting to see what happens after all this energy is expended and draft night actually arrives.

I'm curious though. So many rankings of best to least best of what seems to be a (largely) agreed group of 12-20 players. But history shows that in any year there will be many busts in the top fifteen. Yes, I get that this appears to be a deep year. But, I wonder, what are the rankings for the highest chance to be a bust. Because even in a draft that is predicted to be deep there will surely be more than a handful of complete busts in those being touted

It seems that most agree that Jagga is going to be a player (just argument about how good) and that Smillie could be anything but might also be a bust

I wonder who others think are top 5 at risk of being a complete bust out of those that are touted as top 15
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They aren't usually many total busts in the top 15 or so picks. What do you regard as a total bust? Less than 20 games, less than 50, less than 100 or someone that doesn't live up to the bill in 1 position but may make it in another?

For example, clearly Cam Raynor is not a total bust, but has he lived up to his billing? Not at all.

So I guess, what do you mean by total bust?
 
I like the idea of pick 1 bust in top 10 and 2 busts in 11-20.

That’s almost like do a pre investigation into what went wrong which is a good strategic planning tool.

Injury is a mulligan if not pre-existing

What causes top picks to fail?

- desire to improve / poor trainer or commitment
- already mature / not much further growth
- poor scouting (JON) / talent identification
- pick 6
- pre existing injury recurs / has long term effects
- shallow talent pool / talent isn’t there
- poor club environment for development (neeld effect)

Which unlucky picks is likely for one of these fates?
 
eZyT said:
there's quite a few misconceptions about Jagga Smith being propagated in here.

he's the best player in a very deep pool of talent. He is the u18 AA captain.

he isn't slow, he isn't soft, he isn't outside, he rarely turns the ball over, he doesn't get injured, his kicks go 40m to his teammates advantage, he rarely hacks a kick in hope, he finds space and delivers the ball, he kicks goals from 50m, he is a prolific ball winner, he plays selflessly and creatively, he is professional, he is driven, he is a leader.

testing will show him athletically elite

interviews will suggest a champion and a captain.

there is almost zero chance he wont be a great player at AFL level for a long time.

I really dont get it?

I totally get the variation in peoples preferences; that many would prefer FOS, Lalor or Draper. They are indeed four quite different players. I do completely understand why anyone would rank those three higher than Jagga (Ashcroft and Lombard too). I get that, although its highly unlikely, Jagga Smith could last until pick 6

but I totally dont get the disparity between what people write about Jagga, and the reality of what he achieves on a footy field, week after week, at all levels, for years

I find it really quite strange? its like a reverse Archie Roberts-effect

is it supporter fear of failure? is it because he is built a bit like a young Shane Edwards?

(btw, he plays a fair bit like an old Shane Edwards)
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I think what holds smith back is the talent level of fos,quick agile, and a fantastic high mark, smells of a dangerous goal kicking mid,also has a booming kick,this will translate to a star ,even at afl.level,and to the eye he's miles off afl.conditioning,imagine when he is.
To quote our vfl.coach,and fos was playing injured in our VFL.
Morris said,HES ABOVE THE LEVEL(1 VFL GAME IN LIMITED GAME TIME.
 
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Tiger Ghost said:
Jagga is number 1 for me at the moment, if you've ever been to watch 18's footy you'll know they don't tag, they don't flood and generally theres not too much defensive pressure. The fact that Jagga went up to VFL and absolutely stood out against men playing in a different structure says volumes about the boy. Get it done.
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Remember despite these numbers coach was a little critical of jagga,while stating, fos in 1 game was above the level.
 
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jokershoppe said:
I think what holds smith back is the talent level of fos,quick agile, and a fantastic high mark, smells of a dangerous goal kicking mid,also has a booming kick,this will translate to a star ,even at afl.level,and to the eye he's miles off afl.conditioning,imagine when he is.
To quote our vfl.coach,and fos was playing injured in our VFL.
Morris said,HES ABOVE THE LEVEL(1 VFL GAME IN LIMITED GAME TIME.
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thats not the point I was making.

I think FOS will be a great player.

I was making the point there's a narrative about Jagga thats catching on in here, that not only doesn't match reality, but is the opposite to reality; that he wastes possessions, is soft, slow and potentially injury prone.

Its like saying Kim Kardashian is a lily white nobody, with a small arse
 
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mrposhman said:
They aren't usually many total busts in the top 15 or so picks. What do you regard as a total bust? Less than 20 games, less than 50, less than 100 or someone that doesn't live up to the bill in 1 position but may make it in another?

For example, clearly Cam Raynor is not a total bust, but has he lived up to his billing? Not at all.

So I guess, what do you mean by total bust?
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I mean busts relative to where they are taken

like 2020 Will Phillips (3), Luke Peddlar (11) and 2019 Fischer McAsey (6)

all players massively under performing against their selection

If Jagga is the best bet and Smillie is the unknown. Who are the other 'risk" picks in the top echelon
 
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eZyT said:
thats not the point I was making.

I think FOS will be a great player.

I was making the point there's a narrative about Jagga thats catching on in here, that not only doesn't match reality, but is the opposite to reality; that he wastes possessions, is soft, slow and potentially injury prone.

Its like saying Kim Kardashian is a lily white nobody, with a small arse
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Leysy straight onto the Kim rear chatter!
 
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Jewell said:
I mean busts relative to where they are taken

like 2020 Will Phillips (3), Luke Peddlar (11) and 2019 Fischer McAsey (6)

all players massively under performing against their selection

If Jagga is the best bet and Smillie is the unknown. Who are the other 'risk" picks in the top echelon
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2020 has a massive asterisk on it.
Best to look at other years.

Think this will be like 2017 with very very good players cropping up 15-25
 
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