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2024 Draft Thread
- Thread starter Mr T.
- Start date
Collingwood paid pick 8 and pick 34 for Lachy Shultz.
why? because he was contracted, pies thought they were paying Pick 18 and 34, and they thought he'd add to their grand final line up.
we paid pick 6 and 31 for Hopper under similar circumstances.
Is Shai 3 times as good as Lachy Shultz? at least. probably five times. Jacob Hopper? yes
is he contracted? yes, for twice as long. Do Freo think he will be the difference in a grand final? yes.
the take home message is:
1. clubs pay overs when they are contending and their target is contracted
2. $hai is in the upper echelon of stars, entering his prime 5 years. hes on the line with 5-6 players, one notch behind Bont.
3 first rounders should be the non-negotiable take it or leave it price tag.
they'll take it with 30 seconds to go. they're be mad not to; he wont be offered for sale ever again
why? because he was contracted, pies thought they were paying Pick 18 and 34, and they thought he'd add to their grand final line up.
we paid pick 6 and 31 for Hopper under similar circumstances.
Is Shai 3 times as good as Lachy Shultz? at least. probably five times. Jacob Hopper? yes
is he contracted? yes, for twice as long. Do Freo think he will be the difference in a grand final? yes.
the take home message is:
1. clubs pay overs when they are contending and their target is contracted
2. $hai is in the upper echelon of stars, entering his prime 5 years. hes on the line with 5-6 players, one notch behind Bont.
3 first rounders should be the non-negotiable take it or leave it price tag.
they'll take it with 30 seconds to go. they're be mad not to; he wont be offered for sale ever again
Similar view to mine. Players like Shai just don't come on the market. If you are lucky enough that 1 does, you just get it done, its pretty simple. What did someone say his stats were in the middle? Top 10 in the AFL at winning clearance per CBA? Thats crazy good. To be able to throw him in their midfield, when they need a spark and he also kicks 40 goals per year, its a no brainer. Who would they rather see playing in their forward line? Emmett?
Lukosius seems more a 2nd round or at best a 2nd round and a future 2nd round.
Rioli + $700k salary is probably GC picks 7, 12, 20
Bolton + similar salary is probably Fremantle's 8, 13, 17 .
Could probably do some guess work on what a salary dump is worth.
CG gave up pick 7 + Jack Bowes to Geelong + future 3rd round for a $1.6 million contract over 2 years. Geelong then changed that to spread over 4 years. So lets say he was worth $400k pa which would mean Geelong paid a salary dump of 2 x $400k = $800k for a Top 10 pick.
TPP is increasing so salary dump should be higher one suspects. Using the Geelong example for a Top 10 pick it might be $500k x 2 = $1 mil.
A pick in the low teens could be say 2 x $350k pa = $700k. Mid teens $600k?
Just a guess. Probably wrong.
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Great points, and he is clearly worth a lot more than either of those. But 3 first rounders - has that ever been paid before?
On talent Shai is a Top 5 AFL player and could very well be the difference for Freo. Serong/Young/Brayshaw are in the conversation for the best 3 combo with the Swans Warner/Gulden/Heeney.
And the Freo boys are all under 25. Adding Shai would IMO make them the best midfield in the AFL for the next 3-4 years. They then have Tracey/Jackson as the best young aggressive forward talls. Pearce is a very good FB and they have the older Ryan/Cox & younger Draper/Chapman as emerging young tall defenders. They are not many pieces away from being a serial contender for 3-4 years.
Shai just might be the piece that wins them a GF. They are mad not to be going all out for him.
3 first rounders for 2 Premierships (luck with injuries notwithstanding). You would do it every time.
Harry Armstrong with a bullet.
Can we afford to let him get past us with one of our lower picks?
IF he ends up a Cadman it’s worth reaching for
Yes. Freo going after shai would be like when we went after Brown and Lynch, the excitement would be fever pitch.
I think the Cameron trade it was done, but he was out of contract and was also 27 when he was traded. Shai is younger and contracted, both are match winners and should arguably be similarly priced, but with the provision that it costs more to get a contracted player, especially if we pay some of his contract, which probably suits both parties, doesn't mean we overpay players to hit the min 95% (which is still ridiculous IMO) and also frees their salary cap up, if they choose to try and get Warner next year.
Cameron went for something like just over 2000 points and was probably on the cheaper end being as he was out of contract, if GWS hadn't have matched, he'd have left then the Giants would have got something like Pick 10 in compo, so it was a no brainer to take the deal offered by Geelong as it gave them much more, ie, he was going no matter what. I don't think Shai will be in this position, it won't be an ultimatum, it would be that he'd prefer to go back west but will stay if not, hence we should be able to drive a harder bargain.
Their 1st 3 picks are 8, 13, and 17 (3788 points) so probably a bit too much. They will probably try for 2, we will ask for 3 and give something back. One side will budge. As a min we will get the 1st 2 I reckon (2763) and then maybe something later in the draft, Freo only have 25, so maybe that, and maybe we give them a F3. They get a 1st this year and they get an extra pick for next year for if they want to go hard for Warner.
8, 13, 25 less a F3rd (assume 37) is just over 3000 points. Pointwise sounds about right, both sides save face IMO, we get 2 1sts and a decent 2nd (which we will probably trade anyway) and they get to say they didn't give 3 1sts.
If that happens, I reckon Freo trade their pick 17 to Brisbane for Brisbanes F1 too, which Freo would be stoked to do too, especially if they think Warner is in play. Whether they'd need to trade something back in later to get some picks to take, as I assume they'd have to take some picks at the draft, then I would think they would take minimal players at the draft.
On afl.com Getable today -
Rioli will ask to go to the Gold Coast.
Baker is pretty much gone.
Bolton will ask to leave as well.
Graham - 4 year deal offered by West Coast but Richmond has also offered a deal and want him to stay.
Just saw that, Pretty much said Rioli is keen to go.
Maybe playing a B&F type year to help the Tigers get the most draft capital in return.
Its pretty simple.
Its our terms or he stays.
BTW West Coast gave up pick 14/F1/24 & 37 for kelly.
Geelong>>13/15/20/F4>>>Cameron
Yes, he is keen to go and Gold Coast want him - you would think it just depends on what Gold Coast offers.
Sad too see them go but if we do this right it won't be 37yrs between drinks.
We cannot match a 4 year deal for Graham!!! Madness.
I assume that means we get a 2nd rounder as compo for Graham?
Graham is an Unrestricted Free Agent so can leave. It's up to him to take any offer.
Might mean Richmond want him to stay and keep a core in the experienced age group if the other 3 leave.
2nd rounder after our pick - pick 22 - take it and run. We'd be crazy to hold onto Graham otherwise.
Why would we want to match it, a perfect scenario if we get a second round compo
Bolton,Graham gone 100%,but not convinced on Baker,and Rioli could go either way.
