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You need top 5 ND picks to win flags!!!
- Thread starter Carter
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I'm hopefully we'll see some of this from Seth Campbell. We saw some of this profile in the scratch matches, its a shame he's pretty much been injured since then. Looking forward to him getting back fit and playing in the VFL.
I had to Google NGFH as I had no idea, and the first entry I came across was Neue Gesellschaft/Frankfurter Hefte, a German journal which translates as "New Society/Frankfurt Issues". Damn strange thing to put at the end of your post Scooper!
Worthy discussion.
However, smart savvy clubs have plans in place that are usually implemented very well.
Ours is a smart and savvy club....!
IMO bottoming out is for clubs that lack vision....
However, smart savvy clubs have plans in place that are usually implemented very well.
Ours is a smart and savvy club....!
IMO bottoming out is for clubs that lack vision....
After 1st year of bottoming out.
New thread.
WHY WE CAN'T ATTRACT FREE AGENTS TOO THE CLUB-Carter
Unless Blair has done a Lynch and already been in Kings ear for a few years.
Well, after the most complete, driven and talented footballers in the land have served their time at GCS and or GWS, they’ll come home to us. We can then pick the most appropriate one to be our next premiership captain.
This is the most nonsense analysis I have ever seen.
This tells you nothing other than footy is cyclical and all teams have a percentage of players taken early in the draft.
Of course premiership teams have some top ten draft picks?
All teams do.
You could do the same for the wooden spooners.
I can't be bothered giving this the energy it doesn't deserve, but here's 2022's wooden spooners:
Jaidyn Stephenson PICK 6
Horne-Francis PICK 1
Ziebell PICK 9
Davies-Uniacke PICK 4
Cunnington PICK 5
Luke McDonald PICK 8
Polec PICK 5
Tarryn Thomas PICK 8
Will Phillips PICK 3
Bottoming out is a self fulfilling prophesy.
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Safe bet the lads manager has had plenty of calls from numerous clubs since he arrived on the Goldie.
Yes, for the analysis to be at all meaningful you've have to compare with other teams on the ladder - upper, mid, bottom. I reckon as you say all those teams would have similar mixes of draft picks.
The question is, what do you do with those players in terms of development, how do you draft in talent, how do you set up a game plan that works when you have an edge in talent etc etc.. Richmond are rightly famous for winning flags with retreads and rookies.
In the interest of some of the discussion above, I wondered whether you could do an actual statistical analysis of whether bottoming out helps get premierships in the modern era.
So I looked at the wooden spooners from 2000 to 2018, and the premiers from 2004 to 2022. I figured I'd use a 4 year offset as it would be unlikely that a draft pick will impact premiership chances much in the first 4 years. E.g, it didn't seem reasonable that North's last two wooden spoons had any impact on their premiership chances in the last 22 years.
I chose this century as it seemed as good a data set as any.
This will include, for example, the years we bottomed to collect for our premiership, and the years Geelong didn't for theirs.
The following is a list of all the teams, their number of wooden spoons (2000-2018), then their number of premierships (2004-2022).
Adelaide 0 0
Brisbane 1 0
Carlton 5 0
Collingwood 0 1
Essendon 1 0
Fremantle 1 0
Geelong 0 4
Gold Coast 2 0
GWS 2 0
Hawthorn 0 4
Melbourne 2 1
North 0 0
Port 0 1
Richmond 2 3
St Kilda 2 0
Sydney 0 2
West Coast 1 2
Doggies 1 1
Looking at a simple correlation coefficient calculation between the two data sets, there is a small non significant negative association between winning spoons and winning premierships (r=-. 334). I.e. There is no real correlation, and if there is, it's a bad one. Since 2000, winning spoons is not associated with getting premierships within 4 to 22 years after it.
This is not to say there's not flaws with that. You could potentially look at a larger offset. Maybe it takes 5-10 years for draft picks to come on
E.g. Spoons from 1995 to 2010 and flags from 2005 to 2020. Which I did too (removing GWS and GC obviously).
Adelaide 0 0
Brisbane 3 0
Carlton 3 0
Collingwood 1 1
Essendon 0 0
Fremantle 1 0
Geelong 0 3
Hawthorn 0 4
Melbourne 3 0
North 0 0
Port 0 0
Richmond 2 3
St Kilda 1 0
Sydney 0 2
West Coast 1 2
Doggies 1 1
This gives the same result.
Looking at a simple correlation coefficient calculation between the two data sets, there is a small non significant negative association between winning spoons and winning premierships (r=-. 313). I.e. There is no real correlation, and if there is, it's a bad one.
You could, I guess, expand this out to look at finish bottom 4, or 5, and finishing top 4, but at what point are you not making a point anymore?
To me, bottoming out means going to the footy sucks. And it's not associated with premierships. So... Why?
So I looked at the wooden spooners from 2000 to 2018, and the premiers from 2004 to 2022. I figured I'd use a 4 year offset as it would be unlikely that a draft pick will impact premiership chances much in the first 4 years. E.g, it didn't seem reasonable that North's last two wooden spoons had any impact on their premiership chances in the last 22 years.
I chose this century as it seemed as good a data set as any.
This will include, for example, the years we bottomed to collect for our premiership, and the years Geelong didn't for theirs.
The following is a list of all the teams, their number of wooden spoons (2000-2018), then their number of premierships (2004-2022).
Adelaide 0 0
Brisbane 1 0
Carlton 5 0
Collingwood 0 1
Essendon 1 0
Fremantle 1 0
Geelong 0 4
Gold Coast 2 0
GWS 2 0
Hawthorn 0 4
Melbourne 2 1
North 0 0
Port 0 1
Richmond 2 3
St Kilda 2 0
Sydney 0 2
West Coast 1 2
Doggies 1 1
Looking at a simple correlation coefficient calculation between the two data sets, there is a small non significant negative association between winning spoons and winning premierships (r=-. 334). I.e. There is no real correlation, and if there is, it's a bad one. Since 2000, winning spoons is not associated with getting premierships within 4 to 22 years after it.
This is not to say there's not flaws with that. You could potentially look at a larger offset. Maybe it takes 5-10 years for draft picks to come on
E.g. Spoons from 1995 to 2010 and flags from 2005 to 2020. Which I did too (removing GWS and GC obviously).
Adelaide 0 0
Brisbane 3 0
Carlton 3 0
Collingwood 1 1
Essendon 0 0
Fremantle 1 0
Geelong 0 3
Hawthorn 0 4
Melbourne 3 0
North 0 0
Port 0 0
Richmond 2 3
St Kilda 1 0
Sydney 0 2
West Coast 1 2
Doggies 1 1
This gives the same result.
Looking at a simple correlation coefficient calculation between the two data sets, there is a small non significant negative association between winning spoons and winning premierships (r=-. 313). I.e. There is no real correlation, and if there is, it's a bad one.
You could, I guess, expand this out to look at finish bottom 4, or 5, and finishing top 4, but at what point are you not making a point anymore?
To me, bottoming out means going to the footy sucks. And it's not associated with premierships. So... Why?
