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You need top 5 ND picks to win flags!!!
- Thread starter Carter
- Start date
Yep, I mentioned that. If anyone's willing to show that a bottom 3 finish is correlated with flags I'd love to see it!In the interest of truer accuracy, consider that pick 3 is as good as pick 1, and that you don't have to finish last to bottom out.
Go to work, Burger.
Knowing our Bojo's they would *smile* pick 3 down the drain on a player like Luke McDonald.
I'm not advocating bottoming out.
But we don't win any flags without Cotch and Dusty, Hawthorn doesn't without Buddy and Roughy, West Coast doesn't win 2006 without Judd. Collingwood doesn't win 2010 without Thomas and Pendles. St Kilda wouldn't have been in the grand final without Riewoldt and Kozi. Melbourne doesn't win 2021 without Petracca and Brayshaw. Oliver was pick 4 after Sydney matched for Mills at 3 (but Melbourne traded what ended up pick 8 - Cal Ah Chee and their 2016 first - pick 9 - WIll Brodie, so good on them).
Geelong was kissed on the proverbial when they got Hawkins, who would have gone pick 1, at pick 42, allowing them to get Duckwood at 7 in the same draft. Ditto they got Ablett and Scarlett for peanuts. Brisbane's dynasty got Voss and others for free, and Leppa when they finished bottom 2.
But other teams have finished bottom 3 multiple times and won Jack. Not all drafts are equal. There's not a Cotchin in every draft. There's not a Buddy or a Dusty in any draft except the ones they went in. Not all recruiters make the right calls. There's no golden recipe. We got Lynch, the best player in his draft, for salary only. But we didn't get him until he was 26.
We won't bottom out yet. And certainly not deliberately. But it might come naturally in a few years.
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very interesting and thought provoking coburg.
As spook says though, every flag side needs a couple of those moral top 3 or top 5 picks, its undeniable. But the word moral here is important, they aren't all drafted in the top 5. Most are, but a fair few aren't. Fyfe is a classic example, morally, or hindsight, a number 1. Freo didn't have to bottom out to get him. Ditto Dangerfield, morally a top 2 but went at 10. Likewise Hawkins, Daicos as FS.
We had 2 moral number 1 picks, Cotchy and Dusty, and 2 moral top 10, or better picks in Jack and Rance. (We bottomed out to buggery and its interesting and ironic we are the outlier in Coburgs analysis, but you take my point that you need those top guns, but getting them is not an exact science).
And also most sides have those 2 gun early draft pick players, but they alone don't guarantee anything, you also need good list management, later picks and trading, salary cap management, to flesh out the list and build a good side.
I'm dead-set against tanking, I hate even thinking about it, but the reality is all clubs drop down the ladder at some point, even if its not a spoon and not for long, and get a decent draft hand. But bottoming out doesn't guarantee anything and tanking does more harm than good.
As spook says though, every flag side needs a couple of those moral top 3 or top 5 picks, its undeniable. But the word moral here is important, they aren't all drafted in the top 5. Most are, but a fair few aren't. Fyfe is a classic example, morally, or hindsight, a number 1. Freo didn't have to bottom out to get him. Ditto Dangerfield, morally a top 2 but went at 10. Likewise Hawkins, Daicos as FS.
We had 2 moral number 1 picks, Cotchy and Dusty, and 2 moral top 10, or better picks in Jack and Rance. (We bottomed out to buggery and its interesting and ironic we are the outlier in Coburgs analysis, but you take my point that you need those top guns, but getting them is not an exact science).
And also most sides have those 2 gun early draft pick players, but they alone don't guarantee anything, you also need good list management, later picks and trading, salary cap management, to flesh out the list and build a good side.
I'm dead-set against tanking, I hate even thinking about it, but the reality is all clubs drop down the ladder at some point, even if its not a spoon and not for long, and get a decent draft hand. But bottoming out doesn't guarantee anything and tanking does more harm than good.
I agree Spooker its not now but 2-3 years from now where the trouble could really strike harder.
With the list structure as it is I think bottoming out is going to be hard to avoid to some degree especially in 2 -3 years' time when I'd assume Nank, Lynch, Prestia, Martin, Grimes, Broad, Vlastuin, Pickett and K Mac will have retired or moved on, following Jack, Cotch Tarrant, and George this year.
Key is going to be what replacements the club can get in over that period as it transpires to stem the damage and what draft gems can they pull out of their hat to expedite or stave off a genuine fall off.
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Yes, I think I agree with this viewpoint.
Coburg’s analysis has some vague theoretical value but ultimately has no bearing on the reality of premiership winning sides.
You need a Cotchin/Martin combo, as I’ve said all along.
Gold dust comes from many sources. Most of it comes from the top five of the ND.
We 'bottom out' for 37 years..isn't that enough??.
*smile* bottom out.
*Free agency
*Trades
*Picks between 35-70
Should have us challenging soon enough
*smile* bottom out.
*Free agency
*Trades
*Picks between 35-70
Should have us challenging soon enough
The thread title is a misdirect?
And the end of the first post
“ Bottom out and get those high picks. If we’re in it for flags, there’s no other way.”
Got me tricked.
Guess it comes down to the definition of “bottom out”
Definition of BOTTOM OUT
to reach a lowest or worst point usually before beginning to rise or improve… See the full definition
www.merriam-webster.com
Think we all agree you need some great players.
The thread title is a misdirect?
And the end of the first post
“ Bottom out and get those high picks. If we’re in it for flags, there’s no other way.”
Got me tricked.
Guess it comes down to the definition of “bottom out”
Definition of BOTTOM OUT
to reach a lowest or worst point usually before beginning to rise or improve… See the full definition
Think we all agree you need some great players.
Lol what part of it don’t you understand ?
If bottoming for a year gets us a Cotchin
I’m all for it
Don’t want to tank
Not hard to comprehend surely but carry on dh
How do you propose to bottom out (deliberately) without tanking? Isn't that the same thing?
It may just happen naturally, but I didn't think that was what you meant. I agree we need some class injection.
I'd call what Hawthorn is doing tanking as reference. Essendon wasn't.
Reign it in with the dh stuff no? Was just poking some fun at your assertion.
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Didnt we lose our 1st round pick this year at the trade table last year?
Bottoming out will do us no good this year.
Bottoming out will do us no good this year.
It’s never just “a year” and not every draft has a Cotchin in it either.
Rather than saying we should bottom out, let’s reframe the proposition more accurately. How would you feel about spending 6-8 years, minimum, out of the finals with up to half of that time spent in the bottom 4 winning less games in a seaskn than you’ll have hot meals in a single day? All so we can become a premiership contender* again?
*note, may not actually be a premiership contender at end of this period. In fact, you probably won’t.
We don’t need to tank. Our senior players seem pretty washed up anyway.
My original assertion was that bottoming for a year or so may not be the end of the world because you don’t win flags without top end talent.
Yes, I know we have no picks this year but I can’t see us storming into the top four next year either.
No, it doesn’t need to be that dire.
Call it a two year bounce. If we can trade hard into the draft this year, fight tooth and nail with a youngish group next year but still finish bottom four, and collect a couple of top end recruits along the way to a finals challenge in 2025, I call that the best scenario from where we are now.
What is this ‘deliberate’ talk anyway? I never once suggested tanking. I said bottoming (finishing close to the bottom) for a coupla years could give us the elite talent we need to win the next flag.
The way we are headed, this is exactly what could happen. No need - or desire - to tank.
You can’t get a Martin type via free agency. They’re all locked away on big coin.
