You need top 5 ND picks to win flags!!!

[BillyJean17]

I think top 5 picks usually give you a better chance of landing a generational player. Outside those picks the odds are too high. Can be done but apart from Hird cant remember another. While i dont think you need them to win a flag, i do think you need them to build a dynasty.

The only success story on that approach has been melb and it took some time , bare in mind there’s more chess pieces req than just the players , a qty coach is an imperative, blues are a case in point , still haven’t got one , and NM are questionable, has clarKO passed it

 

[fastin bulbous]

I think our backline is set, we will need to replace wings and insert another attacking midfielder and require a talented tall and small forward. We are well on the way to addressing our mid and forward deficiencies via developing players. We will not get top 5 picks and will trade and use free agency aggressively to soften any come down. I’m ok with that. I throw the toys out as well as anyone when we throw a game needlessly but it’ll happen with declining stars and young players.

 

[DuD_Delist]

Coburg, you ignore the simple, pure truth of my analysis - that premiership sides are invariably stocked with top five talent, even the teams that are seen as perennial top ups (Geelong)

No amount of logging off to read my posts, then logging on again to reply, will change that fact, lol.

And as Jack Ross’s champion you are a horrible judge of talent and I am glad I do not consume your content on here very often. Maybe stick to teaching?

Looking at the premiership ladder from 2 sides chock a block full of high end draft picks
GWS-0
Suns-0

 

[tigertim]

Looking at the premiership ladder from 2 sides chock a block full of high end draft picks
GWS-0
Suns-0

Last years premiers, Geelong, had 0 top 5 picks.

 

[RoarEmotion]

So the summary is you need some really really good players to win premierships.

 

[AngryAnt]

what I took out of it is that most teams have a few first round draft picks on their lists

 

[spook]

Last years premiers, Geelong, had 0 top 5 picks.

Yeah but Hawkins would have gone 1 if not f/son and Cameron would have been top-5 it he wasn't a GWS 17y/o concession pick.

 

[tigerdell]

Guru Bob say man who bottom out in year after trading away first round pick not understand consequence.

Guru Bob also say man who act decisively then changes mind is not decisive.

Guru Bob also say man who bottom out doesnt consider who is standing behind him

 

[DavidSSS]

The only success story on that approach has been melb and it took some time , bear in mind there’s more chess pieces req than just the players , a qty coach is an imperative, blues are a case in point , still haven’t got one , and NM are questionable, has clarKO passed it

And, Melbourne took a few attempts to get it right.

A lot involved in making a successful AFL team, good players, good coach etc, plus a bit of luck and timing and avoiding injuries.

DS

 

[spook]

Absolutely there's luck. What if Carlton drafted Cotch instead of Kreuzer, or they'd already changed the rules so you couldn't draft 17-year-olds (we would have picked Cyril instead), or we bottomed out in 2008 instead of 2007 and got Jack Watts?

 

[Coburgtiger]

Coburg, you ignore the simple, pure truth of my analysis - that premiership sides are invariably stocked with top five talent, even the teams that are seen as perennial top ups (Geelong)

No amount of logging off to read my posts, then logging on again to reply, will change that fact, lol.

And as Jack Ross’s champion you are a horrible judge of talent and I am glad I do not consume your content on here very often. Maybe stick to teaching?

Not sure what the logging on and off comment is about. I don't have to do much to see the forum littered with your teachings from on high.

I notice Jack Ross is back in tonight. Maybe the Richmond recruiters and coaches are as terrible a judge of talent as I.

I'm backing him to be in our best again this weekend.

And I addressed your comment, I think comprehensively.

Yes, premiership teams are often stocked with top 5 talent. As are bottom sides. And middling sides. It's a nothing comment.


All teams have top 5 players. Some of which come through the draft. Some through trades. Or free agents. Or father son.

This whole thread is more emotive than analytical.

 

[BillyJean17]

So the summary is you need some really really good players to win premierships.

Qty coach paramount

 

[lidss]

ATM we're fielding three top five picks in Chimpah, Taranto and Martin. Prestia and Lynch top tenners. Hopper. Vlastuin. Daniel Rioli and Jack outside the ten. Shai the draft miracle.

If they were on the park fresh and sound that would be enough top end. As at R6 2023 most are close to retirement and not one of them is in form, fresh and sound. Jack is fresh and in form, to be fair. But he can't walk.

For 2023 that's the key. Next year the ducks are even less likely to line up. That's not to say that new talent can't emerge in that time.

Our near spoon year will come when the old boys fall off the football perch and we get a few injuries as well. That's the bottom out year. We had an unlucky year like that in 2021.

That's how we'll bottom out.

Not to say we have to turn into West Coast Spoonlovers. We are trying to avoid that by refreshing the top end talent through trades and RFA. Let's see how that pans out.

hopper and vlastuin were both top 10 picks aswell. gibcus top 10 and could have gone higher if the clubs ahead needed a key defender.

 

[AngryAnt]

yeah it's a weird alchemy that is required to make a premiership side and we did it three years out of four, mostly based on the addition of some retreads from other clubs and a gameplan built out of necessity, as well as our gun players that had achieved almost nothing before then.

To say a premiership side needs a few elite players is a banality.

 

[Coburgtiger]

Yeah but Hawkins would have gone 1 if not f/son and Cameron would have been top-5 it he wasn't a GWS 17y/o concession pick.

I don't think that's the point. In the year that Tom Hawkins was taken, the number one pick was Bryce Gibbs. The team that bottomed out to get him got 0 premierships.

The team that bottomed out to take Cameron was GWS who have 0 premierships.

The point is not that you need quality players to win a flag, because, yes. It's that you need to bottom out. Which, no.

 

[spook]

I don't think that's the point. In the year that Tom Hawkins was taken, the number one pick was Bryce Gibbs, who played in 0 premierships.

The team that bottomed out to take Cameron was GWS who have played in 0 premierships.

The point is not that you need quality players to win a flag, because, yes. It's that you need to bottom out. Which, no.

I'm not disagreeing.

 

[Carter]

Not sure what the logging on and off comment is about. I don't have to do much to see the forum littered with your teachings from on high.

I notice Jack Ross is back in tonight. Maybe the Richmond recruiters and coaches are as terrible a judge of talent as I.

I'm backing him to be in our best again this weekend.

And I addressed your comment, I think comprehensively.

Yes, premiership teams are often stocked with top 5 talent. As are bottom sides. And middling sides. It's a nothing comment.


All teams have top 5 players. Some of which come through the draft. Some through trades. Or free agents. Or father son.

This whole thread is more emotive than analytical.

You are still ignoring my point, which is there is no evidence that top up clubs are any more successful, ultimately, in the actual flag stakes, than bottom outs (or clubs that have benefited from top 5 talent, as with Geelong).

But that’s fine. Jog on.

Ross will play his usual inconsequential game tomoz. Alas we are down to player #40 on the list for that position.

You and others are in fantasy land.

 

[Coburgtiger]

You are still ignoring my point, which is there is no evidence that top up clubs are any more successful, ultimately, in the actual flag stakes, than bottom outs (or clubs that have benefited from top 5 talent, as with Geelong).

But that’s fine. Jog on.

Ross will play his usual inconsequential game tomoz. Alas we are down to player #40 on the list for that position.

You and others are in fantasy land.

I am not ignoring your point.

I'm saying it isn't one.

'There is no evidence that top up clubs are any more successful than bottom out clubs'

Firstly, you've changed the goal posts drastically since you started this thread. But even that statement doesn't add anything.

So okay? You could be successful by topping up, a la Geelong last year, or you could be successful by nailing the rookie drafts, free agency, PSD, the national draft, the first round picks, the late picks, and the top 3 picks line every premiership team has had some combination of successes with.

None of that means that you need to bottom out.

 

[Sintiger]

I am not convinced that we are heading for a period of mediocrity, mainly because I think the gap between a middling side and a top side is smaller than it has ever been. However leaving that aside there is the reality of the Tassie team that has to be factored in.
If that team enters the competition in 2027 as rumoured then if history is a guide the drafts around that period will be compromised as will free agency for a year or two.
Clubs are going to have to be proactive in getting young talent in before then and locking in key players.
It is not very far away really

 

[AngryAnt]

You are still ignoring my point, which is there is no evidence that top up clubs are any more successful, ultimately, in the actual flag stakes, than bottom outs (or clubs that have benefited from top 5 talent, as with Geelong).

But that’s fine. Jog on.

Ross will play his usual inconsequential game tomoz. Alas we are down to player #40 on the list for that position.

You and others are in fantasy land.

Some damn fine goal-post marching there carts - you've gone from "WE MUST BOTTOM OUT" to "top-up clubs and bottom-out clubs fare much the same".

Yeah we noticed.