Let me preface this by saying my view on Damien Hardwick has not changed. He is a poor coach and we need to move him on.
Yes, I've been bullish about the list. But I was wrong. At least, I underestimated the depth of our midfield in 2017. I now think we can't win a flag with this mob. We need a full rebuild.
Why? Because our midfield isn't good enough. We haven't recruited pure mids. Simple. We had many chances to do it. We didn't. So let's start again. By my reckoning there should be seven pure midfielders on the list helping Cotch and Dusty. Where did we go wrong? Not hard to see:
1) Brandon Ellis - a 200 gamer, but not a pure mid. Winger. I am a fan but in hindsight we needed a different type. Stuck in no-man's land now.
2) Nick Vlastuin - a 200 gamer, but not a pure mid (queries over tank). HBF.
3) Reece Conca - capable of 200 games pending injuries. Not a pure mid. Not really suited anywhere unfortunately. HBF is best go.
4) Corey Ellis - not big enough. not powerful enough. bust.
5) Ben Lennon - forward. will probably be traded / delisted if he can't pull his finger out.
6) Prestia - can't get his body going. every game off the park is a game we could be getting into the pick 6.
7) Caddy - thought he'd play mid but is too top-heavy and slow.
To play the high-press we clearly set up for at the start of the year we needed a high rotation of capable mids. We don't have it and won't have it unless we rebuild. Now we are stuck with a methodical tactical setup because we can't win the ball for long enough or apply mid pressure for long enough.
As widely noted, we have four once-in-a-generation players. Such a tragedy that we haven't been able to bolster their fine work with the requisite midfield quality.
To be clear, I thought we had chances to cement top four berths in 2013 and 2015. We botched them through poor tactics and selection. Over the journey Hardwick has had capable lists. No longer. Hardwick has to go, but the midfield issue is diabolical. A recruiting failure of the highest order.
We need to saddle up for some pain. It's tempting to suggest that because mids don't take forever to develop, we MIGHT be able to give our champions some joy while we can. But the realist in me suspects we are also critically deficient in a quality running half back and viable tall marking options.
We need to start again. New coach, new recruiting team. As much as it pains me to say it, we should trade off Dusty and Jack to facilitate high picks. Cotch and Rance should stay to provide leadership through the transition.
The rebuild is coming, of that I'm certain. Hopefully Balmey can see the writing on the wall. You can't win flags with only a handful of bona fide mids.
