Another worst part is the diff between us and the next worst (Hawks) is way bigger than any other gaps between other teams.
We were raped!!
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Umpire farce - Getting worse by the minute!
- Thread starter iLoVeNeWmAn
- Start date
We were raped!!
Yes, 2017 we were 469 for & 529 against, 2018 we were a massive minus 122 ! 421 for & 543 against
It is not tough at all to see this data is skewed radically and unnaturally by something.
The second worst off team for free kicks in this period - Hawthorn - is 255 free kicks worse off than the 3rd best off team. Given there are about 135 matches per team on average in this data, it means the 3rd highest beneficiary, Fremantle, is getting about a 1.89 free kicks per game better differential than the 17th highest beneficiary. Less than half a free kick per 1/4 played in differential.
Yet you move one position up and down the ladder and compare the 2nd highest beneficiary, Collingwood, with the 18th highest beneficiary in Richmond the difference is 533 free kicks, more or less 1 whole free kick per 1/4. If you compare Richmond with the top beneficiary, Bulldogs, you are now looking at well over a whole free kick per 1/4 of football difference, about 4.5 free kicks per match.
Let's do another exercise. Let's couple pairs of teams top with bottom, 2nd top with 2nd bottom all the way through to 9th with 10th. And see how even this distribution looks. I have to say I am no mathematician so I have no idea what I am doing here.
So this is set out in the following format: 1. teams(by position in the table in the post above)/ 2. free kick differential between the two teams/3. the difference in free kick differential between each couple and the one before it.
9 & 10/ 32/
8 & 11/ 45/ 13
7 & 12/ 54/ 9
6 & 13/ 95/ 41
5 & 14/ 126/ 31
4 & 15/ 192/ 66
3 & 16/ 229/ 37
2 & 17/ 345/ 116
1 & 18/ 604/ 259
I actually hope there is someone with much better mathematical acumen than me who can do something more meaningful with these numbers. To my untrained eye it looks a very unexpected distribution, where the last 2 couples, and especially the last one, look way way out of place. I mean the difference from one couple to the next averages about 33 until you get to the final 2 couples where it suddenly leaps to 116 and 259. And if the 2 & 17 coupling(Hawks and Pies) was more in line with the other 7 couples above it, and was say 50 or 60 higher than the couple before it, then the 1-18(bulldogs and tigers coupling) would look even more foreign in this sample.
Either:
A) there is very significant bias in the umpiring, or
B) the top and bottom teams and or top 2 and bottom 2 teams are playing way more differently to each other than 14-16 teams are from each other COMBINED, or
C) both of these things are true.
I've often thought about going onto a platform like Upwork, hiring an overseas statistician who knows nothing about the AFL, give him/her the raw free kick data, and get them to determine if there's any statistical anomalies.
We've been screwed ever since Balmey tore strips off the umps. Is it time to retire the great man?
The other way to look at it is that over the 5 year period there has been maybe 110 games.
That’s 3 free kicks a game, hardly devastating
( just putting my crash helmet on …TBR has sent me a congratulatory message
)
That’s 3 free kicks a game, hardly devastating
( just putting my crash helmet on …TBR has sent me a congratulatory message
) 
You forget we tend to concede them in the oppositions forward 50The other way to look at it is that over the 5 year period there has been maybe 110 games.
That’s 3 free kicks a game, hardly devastating
( just putting my crash helmet on …TBR has sent me a congratulatory message
Would be interesting, but I don't think there's enough data to do a proper statistical analysis.
All we have is frees for/against by team and you could drill down to player. Then you could do frees for/against by opposition team, H&A games v Finals, by ground maybe.
But I'd want to see a breakdown of the frees - in the back, holding, dropping, on the full, throwing etc
Where the frees are paid - forward, back, midfield.
What quarters the frees are paid in - do umps really put the whistle away in the last?
And most importantly, which white maggot has it in for us the most?
Shouldn't be happening regardless. Not sure how the AFL are allowing this on their watch.... Don't be surprised if it comes back to bite them if it continues out of control.We've been screwed ever since Balmey tore strips off the umps. Is it time to retire the great man?
Massive Class Action against the AFL for mucking about and influencing betting trends!
The club are fully aware of this disparity so hopefully Adem will teach our players to play to the umpires rules of the week in the manner of the Pies, Lions, Cats etc and maybe, just maybe we will get a fair crack in 2024. Won't hold my breath though
Whilst it is a shocking disparity, we have had a gameplan that's been largely based around negating, defensive tactics.
The umps definitely haven't been rewarding that style in recent years.
Best thing we can do is start winning the footy & playing a more attacking gamestyle because that is what seems to be being rewarded now after SHocking rule changes.
Here's hoping Yze can change this pattern..
The umps definitely haven't been rewarding that style in recent years.
Best thing we can do is start winning the footy & playing a more attacking gamestyle because that is what seems to be being rewarded now after SHocking rule changes.
Here's hoping Yze can change this pattern..
The other way to look at it is that over the 5 year period there has been maybe 110 games.
That’s 3 free kicks a game, hardly devastating
( just putting my crash helmet on …TBR has sent me a congratulatory message
With all the alter egos he set up to congratulate his own posts, you might end up with a full in box!The other way to look at it is that over the 5 year period there has been maybe 110 games.
That’s 3 free kicks a game, hardly devastating
( just putting my crash helmet on …TBR has sent me a congratulatory message
On these stats, i think you'll find the 50m penalty disparity wouldbe worse than the free kick disparity!
Another interesting exercise would be a break down of the type of free kick ie head high, holding, in the back, no idea - they just blew the whistle.
Hardwick did actively discourage our players for ducking or shrugging tackles high, an artform Grimes had perfected at one point! I notice that this didn't rub off on McCrae, who was very supportive of his serial duckers!
Another interesting exercise would be a break down of the type of free kick ie head high, holding, in the back, no idea - they just blew the whistle.
Hardwick did actively discourage our players for ducking or shrugging tackles high, an artform Grimes had perfected at one point! I notice that this didn't rub off on McCrae, who was very supportive of his serial duckers!
The only thing that would be an above board (But still skewed view) is that umpires have favorite / unfavorite players. We've had some fairly consistent players over this time period.
e.g. Bolton, Vlaustin, Nankervis, pickett give away a lot of undisciplined ones and have that reputation
Riewoldt is petulant / has that reputation so doesn't get 50:50s
Lynch got made out as thug so doesn't get 50:50s
Grimes got pinged as a stager so doesnt' get 50:50s or his opponent Cameron does
Bontompelli is an umpire (and probably many opposition supporter's) favorite - he gets away with a lot / doesn't get penalised for it
Some teams have some serial duckers / floppers and get paid for too highs and in the backs for whatever reason (curnow, selwood)
For some reason Maynard plays on the edge but gets away with stuff (e.g. umpire abuse) that other players don't
Its still the ones we don't get that more do my head in - who measures that though? Zero accountability in that aspect of the game.
I'm still fuming Edwards not getting HTB vs north in the elim. Blind freddy sitting at platform 13 flinders street could see it.
e.g. Bolton, Vlaustin, Nankervis, pickett give away a lot of undisciplined ones and have that reputation
Riewoldt is petulant / has that reputation so doesn't get 50:50s
Lynch got made out as thug so doesn't get 50:50s
Grimes got pinged as a stager so doesnt' get 50:50s or his opponent Cameron does
Bontompelli is an umpire (and probably many opposition supporter's) favorite - he gets away with a lot / doesn't get penalised for it
Some teams have some serial duckers / floppers and get paid for too highs and in the backs for whatever reason (curnow, selwood)
For some reason Maynard plays on the edge but gets away with stuff (e.g. umpire abuse) that other players don't
Its still the ones we don't get that more do my head in - who measures that though? Zero accountability in that aspect of the game.
I'm still fuming Edwards not getting HTB vs north in the elim. Blind freddy sitting at platform 13 flinders street could see it.
King was really good at milking them, too. I wonder if Grimes learned it from him?
