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Thoroughbred racing
- Thread starter DragicevicFan
- Start date
Code:
CAULFIELD GUINEAS
1 SACRED ELIXIR (NZ) 7 56.5kg Damian Lane Tony Pike
2 IMPENDING 10 56.5kg James McDonald John O'Shea
3 GOOD STANDING 11 56.5kg Hugh Bowman James Cummings
4 DIVINE PROPHET 1 56.5kg Dwayne Dunn Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
5 HEY DOC 13 56.5kg Luke Currie Tony McEvoy
6 SARACINO (NZ) 4 56.5kg Damien Oliver Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
7 SEABURGE 9 56.5kg Mark Zahra David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
8 REVOLVING DOOR 8 56.5kg Corey Brown Clinton McDonald
9 WAZZENME 5 56.5kg Luke Nolen Stuart Webb
10 EVACUATION 3 56.5kg Kerrin McEvoy Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
11 LAND OF PLENTY 14 56.5kg Craig Newitt Mick Price
12 KACHING 6 56.5kg Nicholas Hall Ciaron Maher
13 SO SI BON 12 56.5kg Michael Dee (a) Robbie Laing
14 BARBIE’S BOY 2 56.5kg Daniel Stackhouse Louise Bonella
THOUSAND GUINEAS
1 WHISPERING BROOK 3 55.5kg Nicholas Hall Simon A Miller
2 MISSROCK 9 55.5kg Dwayne Dunn Robbie Laing
3 GLOBAL GLAMOUR 8 55.5kg Kerrin McEvoy Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
4 FOXPLAY 5 55.5kg Hugh Bowman Chris Waller
5 I AM A STAR (NZ) 2 55.5kg Steven King Shane Nichols
6 LA LUNA ROSSA (NZ) 7 55.5kg Damien Oliver Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
7 SAMARA DANCER 13 55.5kg Dom Tourneur Phillip Stokes
8 LEGLESS VEUVE (NZ) 6 55.5kg Mark Zahra Stuart Webb
9 SWORD OF LIGHT 4 55.5kg Damian Lane Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra
10 LEOTIE 14 55.5kg Chris Parnham Henry Dwyer
11 SEBRING DREAM 11 55.5kg Michael Walker David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
12 HARLOW GOLD (NZ) 1 55.5kg Regan Bayliss (a) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig
13 SMART AMELIA 12 55.5kg James McDonald James Cummings
14 PEEKING DUCK 10 55.5kg Craig Newitt Trent Pennuto
15 FROMPARIS WITHLOV15 55.5kg Ben E Thompson (a) Leon & Troy CorstensCBF putting these fields up!
Here's the link - http://www.racingaustralia.horse/FreeFields/Acceptances.aspx?Key=2016Oct08,VIC,Caulfield
Dyer'ere said:
thanks for posting. O'Brien trifecta, and emphatic, amazing, has that ever been done?
Agree with Leysy that the $4.50 for Hartnell is overs pre post. He's fully acclimatised now and while it wasn't a vintage Turnbull he did it with his head on his chest with a huge margin to Tally (2nd up) in 3rd. Preferment and Happy Trails (2nd up) will improve off those runs but it's hard to see them finding 7-8 lengths at Moonee Valley.
If Winx doesn't land there on race day and you've got Hartnell going for a collect you'd be on bloody good terms with yourself. JD, you're wrong about Hartnell but right about Highland Reel. His subsequent win over Flintshire, and most recent run in the Arc suggest the Queen of Australian racing is still entitled to be bloody short, so I can understand how some punters like ET are fantasising about 5-2 for the mare.
Really looking forward to Guineas Day. Pretty keen on a couple early.
If Winx doesn't land there on race day and you've got Hartnell going for a collect you'd be on bloody good terms with yourself. JD, you're wrong about Hartnell but right about Highland Reel. His subsequent win over Flintshire, and most recent run in the Arc suggest the Queen of Australian racing is still entitled to be bloody short, so I can understand how some punters like ET are fantasising about 5-2 for the mare.
Really looking forward to Guineas Day. Pretty keen on a couple early.
Looks like being a cracking Cox Plate, I can't see Hartnell beating Winx though, she beat him by panels just 6 weeks ago. To be fair it wasn't a suitable distance for Hartnell but she did wipe the floor with him.
I've taken $34 for Sebring Dream in the Thousand Guineas and $4 for He's our Rokkii in the Toorak.
I've taken $34 for Sebring Dream in the Thousand Guineas and $4 for He's our Rokkii in the Toorak.
No runners for me this weekend, Urban Ruler is out for a well earned rest, Mossbeat - still trying to work out where to go from here.
Like a couple at Caulfield this weekend. My Country in race 3 - great each way value. Have also backed I Am A Star in the Thousand Guineas ($21) and Sacred Elixir in the Caulfield Guineas ($8 with odds boost). Happy to take on the Sydney boys as they often struggle at Caulfield first time anti clockwise.
Good punting all!
T44
Like a couple at Caulfield this weekend. My Country in race 3 - great each way value. Have also backed I Am A Star in the Thousand Guineas ($21) and Sacred Elixir in the Caulfield Guineas ($8 with odds boost). Happy to take on the Sydney boys as they often struggle at Caulfield first time anti clockwise.
Good punting all!
T44
Gypsy__Jazz said:
Hate going All-In so will wait Gyps.
A lot will depend on the draw and rides in the Plate. If Winx gives Hartnell more than two lengths start it will be impossible for her to pass him if he continues the 800m sectionals he's running.
Tiger44 said:
Mad on her, T44. Dreadfully unlucky in the prelude and far from disgraced on the bog track behind Foxplay up in NSW. King will have to weave a better passage than he did last time out, but this filly has always looked top class. If she gets a crack at em she can turn the tables on Foxplay. I'll be on.
I think the value runners are the ones to be on in the Thousand Guineas. I Am A Star, Harlow Gold, La Luna Rossa.
In the Caulfield Guineas, Impending looks the one to beat; Sydney form is good form. I backed Evacuation at 17s a few weeks back, he's now $7 so will do some arbitrage there and get a free bet.
In the Toorak, Thames Court is in from 17s to 11s and it's easy to see why. Gets a 4kg pull on Bon Aurum from their last meeting. Cosmic Cube at 34 would be worth a shy at the stumps if Newitt wasn't riding.
In the Caulfield Guineas, Impending looks the one to beat; Sydney form is good form. I backed Evacuation at 17s a few weeks back, he's now $7 so will do some arbitrage there and get a free bet.
In the Toorak, Thames Court is in from 17s to 11s and it's easy to see why. Gets a 4kg pull on Bon Aurum from their last meeting. Cosmic Cube at 34 would be worth a shy at the stumps if Newitt wasn't riding.
tigersnake said:
It wasn't a bad effort, snake. Heh heh. It was a pretty gettable tri. Maybe Easy jagged it.
I have no idea whether it's been done before but I'd be amazed.
I'm largely staying out on Saturday. Caulfield Guineas is a watch programme for me most years.
I've backed Charlie Boy in the fourth at Caulfield. I know he's hard to catch but it doesn't work out that way for me. He's been good.
Charlie Boy goes fresh and then only once. It's usually first up. He was poor first up this time on SOFT going. The track will be fast (technically GOOD3) and that is crucial to his chances. He's five for zero on SOFT. (Zero is a very low number.) He goes at Caulfield.
These days Charlie may want the class a little bit a cushier than a Stradbroke. He gets that cushier class here. I think he'll improve sharply on a hard track.
The favourite Chetwood is well found at 6/4 but up in class, not to pot the Cameron. But that aint the Doomben 10000. Charlie is twice placed in that. Chetwood has been noticed by the handicapper, only getting 1.5kg from my bloke. But it's likely he'll be in it until close to the line. Caulfield 1400m - not a full field. The fave should get some respite.
Chetwood's been getting along in front. Will he run it 1:21 odd? Tricky race for tempo. J B McDonald is a form query these days. Tempo tricky.
Badawiya was a sweet run last start. She too is well found at 4/1. And at the scale is well noticed. A female, two over the limit at the scale. But it is still a handy 54kg. If she's on the job she should settle handy. And then, subject to them steadying in front, should get a soft run. Froggy looks ok to me ATM, by his standards.
I this were a full field I would pot both favourite and second favourite. And if on top of that the race was worth $1M I would smash Charlie Boy. Snowden. Snowden.
But twelve runners? They should get a rest in front. McEvoy. Low prize money. $120k.
K McEvoy is coming out of 7. McDonald out of 9. McD must cross and Caulf 1400 is a short run to the first turn. Froggy must drive through on the rail from 1 and he can get out of the gates. Mabeel is a query for early pace. And for class. But is a trifecta consideration. I prefer Rangipo FWIW without liking.
I can't see it with Rageese. In the past, as soon as he's been up in grade he's failed. Pot. Unders.
Although not suited by what we guess will be the tempo, Charlie's not totally unsuited. He can possie and kick. (See Testa Rossa replay below.) And he is a grading special if on the job. Again, that's uncertain.
The common factors in his successes are - fresh (check), hard track (check), group company (this aint group), and on the job. NB he's more consistent and a half length quicker since transferring to Snowden. But there remains a query on tempo and placement, and another on whether he's on the job. Betting won't necessarily reflect this. A late check to a big drift is enough. I'll be very interested in what Snowden has to say and I may well go again.
This is Charlie Boy's run in the 2015 Testa Rossa run a GOOD track, not SOFT like this year -
https://www.racing.com/form/2015-09-19/caulfield/race/6
Note that Charlie Boy gave Fell Swoop 5.5kg. Then hit the front and weakened.
He's my fancy for the weekend.
I may take in an interest in the sprints. Good luck, PREnders.
Let's hope we can get a winner, jb. I've got a hungry mouth to feed. ;D
Race 10 Caulfield
This is Flamberge's Oakleigh Plate destruction of 2016. (Note that he's first out of the gate.)
https://www.racing.com/form/2016-02-27/caulfield/race/8
It's the hollowest Oakleigh Plate win I've seen for decades. Four to six wide all the way, on speed, with a 3yo filly setting the tempo. Fell Swoop didn't go round a blade of grass and got 5kg from the warhorse. When the race was there to be won at the 100m Flamberge put two on him.
Flamberge, at the same course, meets Fell Swoop 5kg better and may get near the rail. Most of the other runners in this race have had their hidings from the old boy.
I'm not worried about the change of stable but I'll be interested in subtle changes in the horse's form.
My bloke is 7 for 4-2-1 first up. He is a short course specialist. And totally the testing material in this. The class runner. Even allowing for steam for the 3yo Flamberge should be half the price that is on offer. Still $8 everywhere. I had to take that.
Star Turn shapes very well for the spring. And his being placed here is interesting - a guide to there being bigger plans for him. But he's still got to get around Caulfield. And then he's got to measure up. Maybe he does one and not the other.
Malaguerra has formlines that stack up against Flamberge. The change in stable does bother a bit me this time. But the jockey has stuck. Malaguerra is a comer. There is money to be made if the stable can get him right.
Axiom of Racing #075 - All 1400m horses are 1100m horses. Hucklebuck is suited at the trip.
That's my other bet for the weekend.
Here is a nice picture of a flamberge -
Race 10 Caulfield
This is Flamberge's Oakleigh Plate destruction of 2016. (Note that he's first out of the gate.)
https://www.racing.com/form/2016-02-27/caulfield/race/8
It's the hollowest Oakleigh Plate win I've seen for decades. Four to six wide all the way, on speed, with a 3yo filly setting the tempo. Fell Swoop didn't go round a blade of grass and got 5kg from the warhorse. When the race was there to be won at the 100m Flamberge put two on him.
Flamberge, at the same course, meets Fell Swoop 5kg better and may get near the rail. Most of the other runners in this race have had their hidings from the old boy.
I'm not worried about the change of stable but I'll be interested in subtle changes in the horse's form.
My bloke is 7 for 4-2-1 first up. He is a short course specialist. And totally the testing material in this. The class runner. Even allowing for steam for the 3yo Flamberge should be half the price that is on offer. Still $8 everywhere. I had to take that.
Star Turn shapes very well for the spring. And his being placed here is interesting - a guide to there being bigger plans for him. But he's still got to get around Caulfield. And then he's got to measure up. Maybe he does one and not the other.
Malaguerra has formlines that stack up against Flamberge. The change in stable does bother a bit me this time. But the jockey has stuck. Malaguerra is a comer. There is money to be made if the stable can get him right.
Axiom of Racing #075 - All 1400m horses are 1100m horses. Hucklebuck is suited at the trip.
That's my other bet for the weekend.
Here is a nice picture of a flamberge -
spook said:
You wouldn't leave her out of the quaddie, spook. ;D Looks the logical favourite to me.
Here's a roughie -
Watch Sebring Dream's two 3yo runs.
https://www.racing.com/horses/sebring-dream
She is hitting flat spots in slowly run races that are too short.
Third up tomorrow and out to the mile. Good stable. (Daebernig ;D) Very good rider. This is what Walker had to say about her in the autumn -
https://www.flemington.com.au/news/2016-05-21/sebring-dream-a-thousand-guineas-filly
This is her Grand Final. Plenty of 33/1 around.
This thread is flying ATM well done Gents.
OK leysy's wrap:
Race 2 - Assign gets some $$$ in the bank.
Race 4 - Lay Chetwood to continue building the bank. Into evens on the fair now. Crazy. Something on on JD's tip Charlie Boy.
Race 5 - Something Big on Sheidel - BET OF THE PROGRAM. WINS.
Race 7 - Harlow Gold and will follow Jack in again - something small Sebring Dream.
Race 8 - Love horses that carry a penalty then drop back to level weights - Sacred Elixir. Also back Saraceno straight out.
Race 9 - How can leysy not stick with THE ROCK at 20's after the hype last time. ;D
Race 10 - If Ocean Embers continues running the closing sectionals she has it will get over the top of them here. Great bet at $10. Couple up with Jacks Flamberge in multi's.
Good luck everyone. Guineas day fast becoming the best program of the year.
OK leysy's wrap:
Race 2 - Assign gets some $$$ in the bank.
Race 4 - Lay Chetwood to continue building the bank. Into evens on the fair now. Crazy. Something on on JD's tip Charlie Boy.
Race 5 - Something Big on Sheidel - BET OF THE PROGRAM. WINS.
Race 7 - Harlow Gold and will follow Jack in again - something small Sebring Dream.
Race 8 - Love horses that carry a penalty then drop back to level weights - Sacred Elixir. Also back Saraceno straight out.
Race 9 - How can leysy not stick with THE ROCK at 20's after the hype last time. ;D
Race 10 - If Ocean Embers continues running the closing sectionals she has it will get over the top of them here. Great bet at $10. Couple up with Jacks Flamberge in multi's.
Good luck everyone. Guineas day fast becoming the best program of the year.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
good punting all.
As you blokes know, I keep things real simple.
Sacred Elixir to win The Guineas. Fixed $7.
As you blokes know, I keep things real simple.
Sacred Elixir to win The Guineas. Fixed $7.
What a difference it makes to have S King on your horse. I Am A Star didn't go 'round a blade of grass. Gai's are always strong in the final 100. She can push on from here, she's all class. Global Glamour too good though.
A mate and I are in the quad by virtue of too much gin. Only had Foxplay and I Am A Star and somehow ended up with the two favourites. Perhaps the punting Gods are smiling on us. Good punting, PREnders.
A mate and I are in the quad by virtue of too much gin. Only had Foxplay and I Am A Star and somehow ended up with the two favourites. Perhaps the punting Gods are smiling on us. Good punting, PREnders.
