Thoroughbred racing

[spook]

Chautauqua/Extreme Choice quinella.

Not doing my cred any good but the promising colt Acatour I told you guys about a couple of weeks ago saluted again at Rosehill on Wednesday. I meant to tell you guys to back him at $6 ($7 boosted with Ladbrokes) but forgot. Started $2.90 and won like an even money fave. Sorry.

Tomorrow:
Flight Stakes - Awoke. I'm keen on this one. Coulda/woulda/shoulda won its last two. Has been nominated for the Manifold, traditionally an Oaks lead up, so I've had a nibble at the $17 for the Oaks as well.
Metropolitan - Who Shot Thebarman/Sir John Hawkwood

 

[tigerman]

Wow!! what a win by Extreme Choice last night. I'd love to see Extreme Choice, Chautauqua and Astern race against each other.

All up today

Leg 1
1 - It's Somewhat-Win
R3 - Randwick
Leg 2
1 - Astern-Win
R5 - Randwick
Leg 3
4 - Happy Clapper-Place
R7 - Randwick
Leg 4
1 - Who Shot Thebarman-Place
R8 - Randwick

 

[Dyer'ere]

This thread is humming, punters. Big weekend of racing. And a Grand Final.

First, this is Urban Ruler giving T44 something to cheer about. ANd some of the PREnders too. (I was too smart to take the luxurious odds.)

http://www.theracessa.com.au/show_video.php?track=30072&date=2016-09-24&race=2&trial=no

Fought on like a champion.

Palentino is pitched into the Epsom, IMO. $7 is the wrong price. Should be $3.50.

And Lucky Liberty $8 in Race 2 at Caulfield is an 85-90 class on the way through. Having missed two years of racing he had his first start as an adult three weeks ago. Is back. Hit the line very hard. Watch the final 20m. Zoom.

Now you don't worry about the barrier. I've already factored that. Beau Mertens claims 3kg. Lucky Liberty is set 61.5, add the three kilograms - the horse will carry 64.5 kg. I think he can carry that and win. I hope the rider can go onto a long and distinguished career at McDonalds. But for today I hope he can have the horse three wide all the way.

He may need another run. But usually comes to hand quickly and will be fresh for the six furlongs.

There are wildcards in the race in the form of the four year olds. But I'm not in love with any of their recent form. The Kiwi El Sicario was just average in fair company last start and is well unders. Un de Sceaux is my second elect and good value at $12.

I'm specking Lucky Liberty and saving on Un de Sceaux.

Wales. $7. I am watching this horse. The class has collapsed back behind him. He's well in here. I'm mulling. Is he a speculator? Or the bet of the year? Wales was nommed for FIVE races this weekend. That suggests the stable is in for the win.

We have an elite rider. None of this silly drive-thru attendant *smile*. (*Would you like to try our new Shillelagh sauce?* '*smile* off, Prestia, you pervy little *smile*. You too, Mertens.')

Wales is not really a stayer. Ten furlongs is his limit. I know he flew home in that Ballarat Cup behind Junoob but it was sit-sprint thing. This bloke is a mddle-distance type. The fact is I'd prefer him at a mile today in a bigger field. But he's better than these. And I'd prefer King on for a late sprint than Melham angling for orthodox runs.

So he's a speculator.

Anaphora $17 is well in and overs. She can't get the mile so ignore all mile form. Seven furlongs is her caper. Like Wales she's best suited to a late sharp sprint. And Melham is not the man for that. I would have Walker on Wales and Anaphora for best results. But this is a very weak field. She can beat these even with an orthodox run. And it's not like Melham will be slaughtering them. (Or slaughtering Anaphora again.)

Ballina Clash. And Good Offa are overs. Should be half that price. Good Offa is non-winner that found the line. They usually win again shortly after. And Stevie Arnold may have bills to pay.

Good luck, punters. Might be our day.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Lucky Liberty - $7 to $5.50. Across the board. Just then. Hmm. Punting stable. You can get enhanced odds with Ladbrokes for the race if you want some.

For those of you who don't know of DynamicOdds there's a free service - http://dynamicodds.com/

And if you're having a dip over the spring you should subscribe for that period. I'm not a current subscriber FWIW.

 

[spook]

Nice tip on Lucky Liberty, Jack. Got $8.50 enhanced! Cheers, ol fella!

Agree on Palentino. Got $8 enhanced odds. Plus $8 on Fabrizio.

I've also backed Yankee Rose in the Flight Stakes. It or Awoke will win.

 

[Mr Brightside]

Lucky Liberty - $7 to $5.50. Across the board. Just then. Hmm. Punting stable. You can get enhanced odds with Ladbrokes for the race if you want some.

For those of you who don't know of DynamicOdds there's a free service - http://dynamicodds.com/

And if you're having a dip over the spring you should subscribe for that period. I'm not a current subscriber FWIW.

Thanks Jack

 

[jb03]

Chatataqua is a much better 1200 horse

 

[Dyer'ere]

Caulfield Cup 2016:

Order Of St George among second acceptances for Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate
Leo Schlink, Herald Sun
September 20, 2016 4:09pm

THE prospect of a bog track at next month’s Prix de l’arc de Triomphe has left the door ajar for Irish star Order Of St George to launch a shock tilt on the Melbourne spring carnival.

Aidan O’Brien’s flagbearer was on Tuesday confirmed as a second acceptor for both the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate — less than a week after he was supposedly ruled out of contention.

The Arc in France remains the main goal for Order Of St George. But while majority owner Lloyd Williams warned Order Of St George remained “most unlikely” to make a Melbourne raid, the decision to leave the Ascot Gold Cup winner in the spring features was “insurance” against a heavy track for the Arc at Chantilly on October 2.

Williams and O’Brien remain “95 per cent” committed to tackling the Arc — Europe’s richest race — but if the conditions are unsuitable, connections have the option of targeting Melbourne.

Order Of St George and fellow spring aspirants Highland Reel and Sir Isaac Newton last week entered the Ballydoyle stable’s private quarantine facility. If O’Brien is satisfied the Arc track conditions are right for Order Of St George, he will head to France.

If not, the one-time Melbourne Cup favourite will have served his quarantine and could be on the first shipment of internationals to arrive on AFL Grand Final day — the day before the Arc.

Bookmakers, fearing an “Irish sting”, temporarily suspended markets on the October 15 Caulfield Cup. When they reopened Order Of St George shortened $26 to $21 on TAB Fixed Odds. He is a $51 outsider behind Winx ($1.80) in the Cox Plate.

Highland Reel entered quarantine last week to prepare for a return to Melbourne. Picture: Colleen Petch
Winner of six of his past seven starts, Order Of St George had headed Melbourne Cup markets until his surprise defeat in the Irish St Leger by new Cup favourite Wicklow Brave was followed by reports last week he wouldn’t travel to Australia.

Order Of St George is among six internationals to remain in Caulfield Cup contention.

The others are stablemates Highland Reel and Sir Isaac Newton, Godolphin’s Scottish, Andreas Wohler’s Articus and England’s Exosphere, who will be trained by Lee and Anthony Freedman in Australia.

A total of 58 horses are still in the Cup, while 53 contenders still in remain in the Cox Plate on October 22. That figure includes five internationals — French star Vadamos, Highland Reel, Order Of St George, Scottish and Sir Isaac Newton.

Notable withdrawals from the Caulfield Cup include Melbourne Cup winner Prince Of Penzance, Tosen Stardom, O’Brien’s three-year-olds Idaho and Housesofparliament, last year’s runner-up Trip To Paris and France’s Erupt.

The Cox Plate no-shows include Prince Of Penzance, Signoff, Idaho, Long Island Sound, Hit It A Bomb, Bondi Beach and Godolphin’s invited runner Tryster.

First declarations for the November 1 Melbourne Cup are taken on October 4.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/vic-racing/caulfield-cup-2016-order-of-st-george-among-second-acceptances-for-caulfield-cup-and-cox-plate/news-story/20b9985e9b2e0f276a187b14a620899d

If Highland Reel heads over for the CC he's right in it. Old story but the Arc is on tonight.

 

[easy_tiger]

Caulfield Cup 2016:


If Highland Reel heads over for the CC he's right in it. Old story but the Arc is on tonight.

Im into Jameka for the CC Capn, but took some insurance on Highland Reel at 30's. If he lines up at the start line, he'll be 6's.

Solid money for Preferment in the Tbull this arvo, including my relatively modest investment. opened 25's, into half that.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Nice tip on Lucky Liberty, Jack. Got $8.50 enhanced! Cheers, ol fella!

Thanks Jack

Something coming in, gents. :beer It pissed in. We might get another pay.

I agree with the Preferment love. At least that it's the wrong price. $10 chance with up to $26 available. I have to have some of that. But I do worry about that stable at times. So I can't declare him. (As Easy has noted his campaign was bungled by Waller last year.) You have to see late money to get keen.

He's set for the CC, isn't he? Should be showing today.

The favourite Hartnell is the Gary Rohan of racehorses. Deeply a varmint. Whatever he beats should be retired. Mongrel. This is Our Ivanhowe's class. (Weak.) And if it's weak mares can win - Jameka. That Weir import is interesting. Wildcard.

I don't like the race.

I am going to save on Captain Duffy in Race 3 at Caulfield. I think Tourneur is an elite rider. I'm free t bet. But this is not Buffy's grand final. And the form is too much about trust to warrant a declaration. But Captain Buffy's most recent run was promising. Second up he wilted after looming as a possible winner. He is third up today.

Odeon was a big run in that race. Absolutely slaughtered by Symons from a wide gate. (Symons can't change lanes. Plodder.) He's drawn awks today but Symons has had time to think about it and can do better. (If Tourneur were switched onto Odeon I'd have a good go.)

But will be backing Odeon.

Good luck, PREnders.

 

[Dyer'ere]

A good move for Odeon in betting. $14 to $10.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Im into Jameka for the CC Capn, but took some insurance on Highland Reel at 30's. If he lines up at the start line, he'll be 6's.

Solid money for Preferment in the Tbull this arvo, including my relatively modest investment. opened 25's, into half that.

Jameka is an odd one, easy. I like her. And she dominated her sex morally as a 3yo, often poorly ridden. But I rarely back the mares in open company. That said she pissed in the Underwood. Suited at Caulfield.

Preferment was overs. Probably still is. I'm having something on.

On Odeon, that was my error. Symons rode as Symons rides. I can't whinge. I get Dunn's ride I win. I knew who was riding before I bet. And Captain Duffy can't sweat.

I'm looking for a rank outsider in the last for a spec. But I may jut put the cue in the rack.

 

[Tiger44]

JD - bit harsh on Hartnell. Was super impressive today. Pantsed them. Jameka beat the rest fairly easily too. Be interesting where they head with Hartnell.

Lidari did nothing. Out for practice me thinks.

Mossbeat was poor yesterday. Waiting on the excuses (again). My opinion is she doesn't carry weight too well, so although well down in class she just doesn't handle 60kgs. Better off in a 0-84 where she carries 54 or 55 max and a real jockey can then ride her.

Go Tigers

T44

 

[easy_tiger]

JD - bit harsh on Hartnell. Was super impressive today. Pantsed them. Jameka beat the rest fairly easily too. Be interesting where they head with Hartnell.

Lidari did nothing. Out for practice me thinks.

Mossbeat was poor yesterday. Waiting on the excuses (again). My opinion is she doesn't carry weight too well, so although well down in class she just doesn't handle 60kgs. Better off in a 0-84 where she carries 54 or 55 max and a real jockey can then ride her.

Go Tigers

T44

Hartnell would win the CC by 3 lengths, but looks like they go for the Cox/Melbourne. Jameka will run fav in the CC.

Hartnell is outstanding, but I like the fact Winx could get out to 5/2 in The Cox now. Could be Bone Crusher/Waverley Star type situation, but Im a Winx man.

Although Preferment disappointed, I thought it was a good Cup trial.

Astronomical Epsom win by Hauraki.

 

[Leysy Days]

Hartnell. Wow.

Haven't seen the ratings yet, but hunch is that the $4.5 on the Cox is overs.

Has Winx covered this prep ILHO. The horse is low flying!!

 

[spook]

Godolphin is flying. Horses loving the farm. Hartnell was brilliant, so was Hauraki. It's Somewhat dominated a weak Craven field. (They gotta do something about that race. Move it or increase the $ - for Melbourne racing fans' sake hopefully the former.) Jorda. Nemrud (good thing beaten - held up for an hour in the straight). Astern's sectionals were ridiculous in the last 800, they just went too slow early and Russian Revolution is a good horse set tactically for the race brilliantly by Snowden.

Awoke was disappointing in the Flight Stakes. Hopefully the lack of turn of foot in the straight means she's set for the Oaks.

Great ride by Ollie on Shillelagh on Saturday. He's in great form. Must have made some bad bets.

A lesson from the weekend. If Bowman is riding a Waller horse with indifferent lead-up form and good odds, get on. Waller must have backed Wine Bush for a fortune. (I backed Rocketeer - #$#@Y&#*!)

Nonetheless, a great weekend of racing.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Let us not squabble about varmints like Hartnell, gents.

Just to change the topic to good horses ;D how 'bout that Highland Reel? Had the Arc won at the 200m IMO but the stablemate was packing too many guns.

Glad he got to run in it. He's full-grown now, not the big puppy who ran so well, but greenly, in last year's Cox Plate. And it's now abundantly clear that he's a genuine mile-and-a-halfer. (It probably was before he won the HK Vase, as a three-year old, if you don't mind, umpire.)

The punter in me regrets that he it didn't rain. He would've missed and then come to Aus for the Caulfield Cup. *smash* But better for racing that he competed so gallantly in the Arc.

Now even if he was only three at the time, and green, and probably better suited, even then, to a mile and a half, when beaten by Winx in last year's Cox Plate, his win in the Vase over Flintshire franked the Winx form internationally. And continues to do so.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Off to Chantilly this year.

The Arc for your viewing pleasure -

[youtube=560,315]rVVmgRRa-6Y[/youtube]

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

G'Day bud, have you tried the book "Millers Guide", I'm pretty sure that will help you out. It has been a yearly publication that has ceased as of 2015/16.

Was searching for it today. Do you know what happened to it? Some racing journo's kept it going in the early 90's when it was in trouble. Bit of a shame after ~140 years.

 

[tigerman]

Was searching for it today. Do you know what happened to it? Some racing journo's kept it going in the early 90's when it was in trouble. Bit of a shame after ~140 years.

The 2015/16 edition was the last one unfortunately, I think they struggled with sales with all the online content available. A sad day, I used to enjoy it immensely.