Thoroughbred racing

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

For lesson on how to pull a horse (or not to pull a horse), check this race out from Belgium. Watch the horse that ultimately comes third (will likely need to watch the closing stages twice) in the red and white colours.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeKCg0KpLyo&feature=player_embedded

Wow. Life for that here, JB.

Ok. The Lightning. Take the champ out. Moment of Change (a 7f horse) with no credentials won it by four. MoC slaughtered the rest of them.

Jury out for mine. Third is a course specialist but can't win midweek. Satin Shoes and The Old Freedman ld were well beaten.

Time will tell. Perhaps, in the current climate MoC's run was genius. More testing is required IMO. Prices are important.

The pace at Caulfield last week was a joke. Business as usual in small fields.

Morally Super Cool beat Fiveandahalfstar by four. Feel free to make excuses for the disgraced. (Maybe the winner was.)

The Oakleigh Plate was put on for the welter class leader. In OP terms they crawled. With Me would have led them six and won by fifteen.

Small fields. Artificial results.

That said Facile Tigre fans would be aggrieved. 16/1 before the race and a certainty to run a drum. The standard of riding in the race was sub-Toowoomba. Baster? Can you change lanes, you *smile*? Undeniably backers should shoot him. Who was on Rescue Mission? Karen McEvoy laughed at them. While he fell off the toilet.

FWIW our team was teeing off on Unpretentious in the Lightning and Newmarket. He got scratched before the money went on. Phew.

Let's look at the Newmarket.

1 LUCKYGRAY Gino Poletti 2 58kg 111
2 MOMENT OF CHANGE Peter G Moody 3 56.5kg 108
3 ORTENSIA Paul Messara 1 56.5kg 112
4 WOORIM Robert Heathcote 4 56.5kg 108
5 ATOMIC FORCE Darren Smith 6 56kg 107
6 BARAKEY Jim P Taylor 5 56kg 107
7 DECISION TIME Clarry Conners 8 55kg 105
8 SPIRIT OF BOOM Tony Gollan 9 55kg 105
9 FACILE TIGRE Jason McLachlan 10 54.5kg 104
10 LONE ROCK Robert Smerdon 7 53.5kg 106
11 AERONAUTICAL Lionel Cohen 20 52.5kg 87
12 ALTAR Peter Snowden 18 52.5kg 95
13 AVOID LIGHTNING David Jolly 15 52.5kg 97
14 BIG BUDDIE Andrew Sawden 22 52.5kg 82
15 FONTELINA Anthony Cummings 12 52.5kg 100
16 KARUTA QUEEN Peter G Moody 13 52.5kg 99
17 RIFLEMAN David Hayes 23 52.5kg 75
18 SATIN SHOES Clarry Conners 11 52.5kg 102
19 SHANGHAI WARRIOR Pat Hyland 17 52.5kg 96
20 UNDENIABLY Mark Kavanagh 16 52.5kg 97
21 BETTER THAN READY Kelly Schweida 14 50.5kg 97
22 LAST DAY (NZ) David Jolly 24 50.5kg 72
23 SHAMAL WIND Robert Smerdon 19 50.5kg 88
24 SHAMEXPRESS (NZ) Danny O'Brien 21 50.5kg 85

Hmmm... Not ruling out Shamal Wind but supplements are important. As it stands I'm 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 20, 23. Gut for now.

 

[Leysy Days]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Good stuff Jack.

On the Oakleigh plate, Barakey's late scratching was the key. He runs, sits outside the leader, the winner prob ends up 3 wide outside him & doesnt run a drum.

Daniel O'Sullivan is possibly the best form student there is ILO, and by his ratings believed Barakey had to run 105.5 to win and had run better than that in each of his past 7...

On the Newmarket, MoC would have to be hard to beat on its Lightning run. Moody was bullish about the horse post race. Shanghai Warrior might be the one to spec at odds for leysy at this stage.

Strangely the Aus Cup shapes as the better & more intriguing betting race this year.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Good stuff Jack.

On the Oakleigh plate, Barakey's late scratching was the key. He runs, sits outside the leader, the winner prob ends up 3 wide outside him & doesnt run a drum.

Daniel O'Sullivan is possibly the best form student there is ILO, and by his ratings believed Barakey had to run 105.5 to win and had run better than that in each of his past 7...

On the Newmarket, MoC would have to be hard to beat on its Lightning run. Moody was bullish about the horse post race. Shanghai Warrior might be the one to spec at odds for leysy at this stage.

Strangely the Aus Cup shapes as the better & more intriguing betting race this year.

Spot on about the Plate, Bryan. Mrs Onassis would have missed the drum for sure.

MoC's form from here on will throw that Lightning into perspective.

Yeah. The Aus Cup might be very interesting. But it's not my race. I'll sick with the sprint and will be having a dip in the Donny. As soon as Mahisarah is scheduled to step onto a track I'll take the 100/1. But for now I'm not sure it's headed for the race. Any scoop there?

 

[Leysy Days]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

On the Newmarket O'Sullivan is talking up Better than Ready for the race on twitter. Up to his ears.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

On the Newmarket O'Sullivan is talking up Better than Ready for the race on twitter. Up to his ears.

Doesn't fit my formula, Leyser. Weights are out BTW -

1 LUCKYGRAY Gino Poletti 2 58kg 111
2 MOMENT OF CHANGE Peter G Moody 3 56.5kg 108
3 ORTENSIA Paul Messara 1 56.5kg 112
4 WOORIM Robert Heathcote 4 56.5kg 108
5 ATOMIC FORCE Darren Smith 6 56kg 107
6 BARAKEY Jim P Taylor 5 56kg 107
7 DECISION TIME Clarry Conners 8 55kg 105
8 SPIRIT OF BOOM Tony Gollan 9 55kg 105
9 FACILE TIGRE Jason McLachlan 10 54.5kg 104
10 LONE ROCK Robert Smerdon 7 53.5kg 106
11 AERONAUTICAL Lionel Cohen 20 52.5kg 87
12 ALTAR Peter Snowden 18 52.5kg 95
13 AVOID LIGHTNING David Jolly 15 52.5kg 97
14 BIG BUDDIE Andrew Sawden 22 52.5kg 82
15 FONTELINA Anthony Cummings 12 52.5kg 100
16 KARUTA QUEEN Peter G Moody 13 52.5kg 99
17 RIFLEMAN David Hayes 23 52.5kg 75
18 SATIN SHOES Clarry Conners 11 52.5kg 102
19 SHANGHAI WARRIOR Pat Hyland 17 52.5kg 96
20 UNDENIABLY Mark Kavanagh 16 52.5kg 97
21 BETTER THAN READY Kelly Schweida 14 50.5kg 97
22 LAST DAY (NZ) David Jolly 24 50.5kg 72
23 SHAMAL WIND Robert Smerdon 19 50.5kg 88
24 SHAMEXPRESS (NZ) Danny O'Brien 21 50.5kg 85

 

[winmad]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Tigerland... has had two runs two wins...
Races in the yellow and black as well...
Owner K, Dean, racing today Race 6 and Wangaratta !!!
Fav. Go Tigerland..

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Tigerland... has had two runs two wins...
Races in the yellow and black as well...
Owner K, Dean, racing today Race 6 and Wangaratta !!!
Fav. Go Tigerland..

Bad luck, broo. I saw the race and the awesome Tiger strip was unlucky and a little bit a class above.


OK, kids. Newmarket time. Took the 80/1 about Undeniably yesterday. A very unlucky fourth in the Oakleigh Plate. Three wide all the way outside the leader.

This year's Newmarket may be, as usual, classes better than the OP. But I can't see it. There is potential in a few, but nothing established.

Acceptors today:

1 LUCKYGRAY Gino Poletti 2 58kg 111
2 MOMENT OF CHANGE Peter G Moody 3 56.5kg 108
3 ORTENSIA Paul Messara 1 56.5kg 112
4 WOORIM Robert Heathcote 4 56.5kg 108
5 ATOMIC FORCE Darren Smith 6 56kg 107
6 BARAKEY Jim P Taylor 5 56kg 107
7 DECISION TIME Clarry Conners 8 55kg 105
8 SPIRIT OF BOOM Tony Gollan 9 55kg 105
9 FACILE TIGRE Jason McLachlan 10 54.5kg 104
10 LONE ROCK Robert Smerdon 7 53.5kg 106
11 AERONAUTICAL Lionel Cohen 20 52.5kg 87
12 ALTAR Peter Snowden 18 52.5kg 95
13 AVOID LIGHTNING David Jolly 15 52.5kg 97
14 BIG BUDDIE Andrew Sawden 22 52.5kg 82
15 FONTELINA Anthony Cummings 12 52.5kg 100
16 KARUTA QUEEN Peter G Moody 13 52.5kg 99
17 RIFLEMAN David Hayes 23 52.5kg 75
18 SATIN SHOES Clarry Conners 11 52.5kg 102
19 SHANGHAI WARRIOR Pat Hyland 17 52.5kg 96
20 UNDENIABLY Mark Kavanagh 16 52.5kg 97
21 BETTER THAN READY Kelly Schweida 14 50.5kg 97
22 LAST DAY (NZ) David Jolly 24 50.5kg 71
23 SHAMAL WIND Robert Smerdon 19 50.5kg 88
24 SHAMEXPRESS (NZ) Danny O'Brien 21 50.5kg 85

Enjoy.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]


Facile Tigre and Shamal Wind each doubtful on TAB fixed with betting suspended.

Generous odds for them at SPORTINBET.

 

[Leysy Days]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Final field Jack, soz cant be arsed changing the look. ;D


No
Last 10
Horse
Jockey
Wg
Trainer
Career
Rtg
1
15-11140121
LUCKYGRAY(14)
Shaun O'Donnell
58.0
Gino Poletti
18-12-2-0
111
2
11-3301-131-2
MOMENT OF CHANGE(7)
Luke Nolen
56.5
Peter G Moody
10-5-1-3
108
3
0-11-194110-0
ORTENSIA(9) (BLKS)
Dwayne Dunn
56.5
Paul Messara
36-13-3-4
112
4
617-158070-0
WOORIM(4) (BLKS)
Damian Browne
56.5
Robert Heathcote
43-11-6-3
108
5
11111-11-111-
BARAKEY(13) (BLKS)
Jason Brown
56.0
Jim P Taylor
11-11-0-0
107
6
546-243273-3
SPIRIT OF BOOM(6)
Brett Prebble
55.0
Tony Gollan
34-6-7-5
105
7
13-5044-700-8
LONE ROCK(5)
Ben Melham
53.5
Robert Smerdon
22-4-2-3
106
8
46042-2417-3
AERONAUTICAL(1)
52.5
Lionel Cohen
17-3-2-1
87
9
4125427935
BIG BUDDIE(2)
Anthony Darmanin
52.5
Andrew Sawden
20-3-2-1
82
10
079-12106-10-
FONTELINA(10)
Glen Boss
52.5
Anthony Cummings
12-4-2-0
100
11
2200-32280-4
SATIN SHOES(12)
Tommy Berry
52.5
Clarry Conners
23-5-5-2
102
12
267-99-8-2164
UNDENIABLY(3) (BLKS)
Tim Clark
52.5
Mark Kavanagh
18-4-4-1
97
13
14-1311-21
BETTER THAN READY(8)
Craig Williams
50.5
Kelly Schweida
8-5-1-1
97
14
125-395316
SHAMEXPRESS(11)
Craig Newitt
50.5
Danny O'Brien
9-2-1-2
85

 

[Leysy Days]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Fields up here -

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/Racing/meeting.aspx?meet_code=846229

Sticking with Better than Ready in the Newmarket.

Aus Cup wide open. Not sure as yet, might well spec Tanby. Liked his run 1st up, 30/1 currently & should get better.

 

[tigergollywog]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

pretty good form on the Perth horse! I like WA sprint form, but no value and will keep my dough in my pocket in an open race (saving up to plonk the tigers in round 1)

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Ta, Leyser.

Look. A very handy lightweight on my roughie.

The field has fallen right away. Shame. I hated the non-starters and it guarantees a reduced tempo.

Still I like the look of it. Worth thought. The fave is the one to beat IMO. Not controversial. Very open outside of MoC. I think Woorim, Fontelina and Lone Rock are overs. And B. Prebble is an interesting rider on The Not Wet-tracker of Boom. Spirit.

Will definitely take your mail in the tris, Leysy.

And yeah, no value there, tw.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]


Ballarat Steward Fiasco


http://www.racingnetwork.com.au/rv-stewards-disqualify-mybenz,-severely-reprimand-jackie-berriman/tabid/83/date/2013-04-06/newsid/12022/default.aspx

For now, Berriman has the reprimand on her record because of the prodigious bungling of Racing Victoria. She has them on toast IMO based on the minimal available evidence. They've got code. They've got coders. They don't need a screen capture.

The stewards have self reported. BTW what about the plunge 4/1 to 6/4 on the horse that was subsequently awarded the race? Who's paying for that? If it were a Melbourne Cup there would be a class action.

 

[tigergollywog]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Ballarat Steward Fiasco


http://www.racingnetwork.com.au/rv-stewards-disqualify-mybenz,-severely-reprimand-jackie-berriman/tabid/83/date/2013-04-06/newsid/12022/default.aspx

For now, Berriman has the reprimand on her record because of the prodigious bungling of Racing Victoria. She has them on toast IMO based on the minimal available evidence. They've got code. They've got coders. They don't need a screen capture.

The stewards have self reported. BTW what about the plunge 4/1 to 6/4 on the horse that was subsequently awarded the race? Who's paying for that? If it were a Melbourne Cup there would be a class action.

I reckon our footy club pie night the other night, where the pies were stone cold and someone bought salt and sugar-free tomato sauce, was better run than some $b industries.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

A few thoughts on the Newmarket.

Luckygray is the glamour from Perth. $1.8M in stakes. He is unbeaten at 6f and first up. The margins do not reflect the dominance of his wins. In each of his runs Shaun O'Donnell slaughters the horse to the tune of eight lengths and the bush champ then beats them a length or so.

Even in the Railway Luckygray was the big run. (Mind you, Mr Moet - backed off the map - was first up at a mile.)

In that Railway it was as if every runner was under the pump for the entire journey - they just broke 1:36 for the mile. O'Donnell gave his charge every chance to be fifteen lengths better than the second horse, but alas, Luckygray was not quite up to the challenge. And ran second.

He has twice been tested in Victoria. In his first run, the Lawrence, reasonable listed-ish company, the grey pulled early. Seemed to me to handle the heavy track well but was very fresh and fought the rider. He led on the bit.

And here's the rub. Even though the formguide tells you he is unbeaten first up he was first up from a let up that day. An idea backed up by his leading and pulling. The factor that mitigated heavily against this poor run is that the track was heavy.

Effectively second up then in the Memsie, on a dry track, he settled back in a very slowly run affair. O'Donnell gave him every chance to be twelve lengths better than the opposition and came up only seven short. That said, the horse that beat him three in the Lawrence (Second Effort) gapped him in the Memsie. Ruling out the heavy track explanation in the earlier race IMO.

In his favour is that Luckygray is almost certainly a sprinter outclassing inferior rivals over middling journeys in WA. And it will be very difficult for O'Donnell to cost the horse ten lengths around the turn down the straight. (He is pretty creative though.)

Against him is the stable. Topweight of 58kg. First up in a Newmarket, a no-no. A hilariously *smile* hoop. And this is the big smoke. He's at best half the price he should be on my assessment but he's an interesting runner because this does not appear to be a strong Newmarket.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]


Spirit of Boom is the line you can run through most of the form but to do that you have to know Spirit of Boom very well.

Spirit of boom is an appalling jib. A shocking non-winner. My formguide goes back twenty runs and there are no city wins there, just two at Gold Coast fourteen months ago.

Even though those wins were at 1300 and 1400m my thinking is that Spirit of boom doesn't quite get the 6f. A radical notion to some but I am convinced.

On SoB's chances in the Newmarket I think it's the hallmark of a top jockey that he can get a nonnie over the line. Prebble is such a jockey. Furthermore, he cannot be left out of trifectas. Expect a late burst if the speed is on or a cuddle if it's not.

But on the bigger question of how to line up the form of those around SoB I recommend watching the runs for the second when the horse spits it. For example, he dies in the arse with about thirty to go in the Winterbottom. And if you watch the Gilgai the horse was going to win by two and then just point blank turned it up. Ran third. Shocking squib.

The Gilgai and the Bobbie Lewis matter because even though neither We're Gonna Rock nor Hallowell Belle are running (a shame) they enable us to draw some kind of line between Moment of Change and Barakey.

 

[Leysy Days]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

So we any closer to knowing ya winner Jack. ;D

Yeah Spirit of Boom is a nonnie, moral for multiples though grows a leg down the straight same as his brother. Seen worse 80/1 pop than the one you through out earlier Undeniably as well.

BTW trackwork/trials/interviews from the Newmarket runners on Tuesday are here -

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/RVLTV.aspx

click on Newmarket fancies impress in trackwork big fella.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

I reckon our footy club pie night the other night, where the pies were stone cold and someone bought salt and sugar-free tomato sauce, was better run than some $b industries.

:hihi That's the revolution line, Follydog.


Ok. Barakey is the easiest horse to do the form on because there's *smile* all form. Warath Bay was beaten 14 lengths in last year's Newmarket. And was beaten five in the Winterbottom. Meh. Not much of a sample. May not have travelled.

In the 2012 Winterbottom Travinator went like a cut cat early, driving through on the rail to hold Barakey out. Very quick lead split. Barakey did it on the bit was cruising very high. They put three or more on the third runner.

If you watch the race you may conclude, as I do, that those closing on the winner were flattered by the margins. He made the race and was too good. FWIW I believe Hallowell Belle was not that far off her best but not at it.

And do watch for Spirit of Boom lactating in the last thirty.

[youtube=560,315]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1a9hnNzQrrg[/youtube]

My conclusion is that Barakey would be better suited round a corner and would be much better off, as the trainer has lamented, with a run under his belt. The small field helps. And the small number of leaders. The 3yos are the wildcards here. But I think he's up at least a bit in class on his last run and might be a sitting shot.


Thanks, Leyser. Will check it out, brother. My 80/1 will work out ok if my take on the field is right. My bloke is within striking distance of the weights of the 3yos. Big chances IMO.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

So we any closer to knowing ya winner Jack. ;D

The winner, Leysy? Cripes! Isn't 80/1 enough for you? ;D

Ok. Moment of Change.

There are only four interesting runs.

The Lightning. If Black Caviar had not run Golden Archer would not have attacked her (as best he could). It was a classic Moody team ride. Golden Archer is much softer than Spirit of Boom. GA cannot be used. He has to be cuddled and then is still a non winner in handy adult company. Strictly straight five.

You'll see the effect of his being used in the replay when he drops dead with 70m to go. Had Black Caviar not run IMO Moment of Change would have beaten the non winner stable mate a length and a half an I would be laying MoC.

But MoC was (team) ridden to win that race. To beat Black Caviar. And showed a mess of speed. Surprising pace. (BTW no pace maker has been entered for the Newmarket.) Moody is bullish.

The Show County at Warwick Farm was a massacre. Title is only a class and a half behind the best of these. MoC was a having its sixth race start and its first as an adult when he destroyed them in 1:09.6. That's quick there. Two runs that prove that MoC is quick. And one that proves he can go down the straight.

Lookin good.

The Rupert Clarke. MoC ran 1:22.16 for 7f at Caulfield. Brisk. He sat outside them and controlled the race bullocking the win. Too good. The horse that camped on him We're Gonna Rock would go very close in this Newmarket. A certainty to run 1, 2, IMO. The thing is WGR can't run 7f and is unsuited on the speed and at Caulfield. He gave MoC 3.5kgs that day. The tables would be turned tomorrow. (Remember WGR had a huge gear change seven runs ago - nuts off. Exclude his coltish form.) But WGR aint runnin.

The Hobartville. Second up, MoC went like a busted arse. No complaints; I backed Tagus. ;D He did fail second up but the track was heavy and the break only 13 days. This time he's had three weeks, dry track. Probs not an issue.

Will be in front with 80m to go IMO. But will he grind or sprint?

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

There is bugger all difference in formlines between Shamexpress and Better than Ready.

See the form around Jolie Bay.

However Shamexpress is a great gangly ball-bearer and Better than Ready is a hardened sprinter with discipline and an empty ball-bag. Shamexpress cheats and lies. Ready wins races in good times. Not to say they will be far apart at the post.

Shamexpress is a shitheap second up. Third up tomorrow.

I don't believe the story about Clark contacting Kavanagh. Too convenient. K is throwing off. Do not be at all surprised if there is a steady stream of money for Undeniably in the closing seven minutes of betting. (As there was in the OP.) Kavanagh has said that he thinks the lightly raced sprinter is a straight six horse. And, um, you know, Kavanagh's horses often improve in leaps and bounds when the money is on. (Mine is. ;D) And he's only giving the 3yos 2kgs.

Fontelina has form for this race. The Salinger win was good. If the horse could stand racing and went into this Newmarket with the benefit of a run it would be primed. See, Fontelina weakened (underdone) in its Salinger. Anthony Cummings is a big disadvantage in heated races. (But Fontelina is the one who can move into the race stylishly at a crucial stage.)

One of AC's features is that he's frank. He said, if you listened closely, that Luckygray was impressive in the jumpout and his charge was not. AC's horse is underdone. And only a bit of value. A cuddle would help.

Messsara should engage Dank for the Newmarket. Ortensia can't run 6f. Never could. She's harshly weighted and even at this low Nmkt level, IMO, outclassed.

Lone Rock hasn't run a decent race in years bar the Oakleigh Plate of 2013. And that wasn't genius. But this is her company if Smerdon has her at her best. Straight six lover that lacks speed. 30/1

Woorim wants a harder speed than I reckon he'll get. And I think he's an 1100/1400m pony. His only recent good run at 6f was last year's Nmkt. Pick 4s and tris at 40/1.