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Thoroughbred racing
- Thread starter DragicevicFan
- Start date
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
FWIW the three best-weighted runners for mine are
Dunaden - 1kg is a lenient penalty for such an emphatic CC win. He might already be the best Cup winner I've seen, and if he can win with 59 there'll be no argument from me. He'll be well back early and will need everything to go right when he makes his run, but he's one of the few with no question marks against him. Form has held up through the Mackinnon
Green Moon - if he was from a staying family I'd be all over him at the weights, but his damsire Green Tune got mostly sprinter-milers. Montjeu's blood will have to do the heavy lifting. Forget the Cox Plate run; how did he manage to get three wide from barrier 5, same gate as tomorrow? Doesn't race like a two-miler for mine, but if you think he'll get the trip, go in with the ears back I say!
Lights Of Heaven - again, not much stamina on the dam's side through Volksraad, who is proven as a broodmare sire up to a mile and a half, but not at extreme distances. Liked her combination of early speed and coming back underneath Nolen in the CC. Australasian Oaks/Brisbane Cup/Caulfield Cup form is sound for this. Might make this my main bet, but I'll be looking for better than the 20's on offer, and some doubts remain over her stamina. May also be a run short of 3200m fitness
Best of the rest
My Quest For Peace - only has to avoid blowing the start to get the run of the race. Has stronger form than Mount Athos for mine, and is therefore better weighted. Given a cosy run in the CC, couldn't quicken with the placegetters but still got to the line OK for mine
Maluckyday - got left when they sprinted at Geelong and happy to ignore that form. Handicapping's his go so his WFA runs have been sound enough. Fails ARCHYBOY's test of past runners and have a sneaking suspicion he might be half a run short of being ready for this. Gets the Zabeel bonus points from me
Red Cadeux - it really goes against the grain to give this a chance after not racing for nearly four months. Connections seem confident, but it'll be a monumental training performance if it gets up. Form is better than last year but I worry about him getting in...if he slots in midfield, and he's fit enough, it all changes. Not the type of horse I could ever back straight out, but I missed him last time and am not willing to put a line through him again
Smokies
Mourayan - has a reputation as a bit of a non-winner but his form is really very very good. Can he get a strong two miles and can Robert Hickmott of Mount Macedon upstage the big stables? Might be worth a spare dollar to find out
Cavalryman - this horse troubles me most of all, mainly because he mixes his form. Dramatically. Been going around in weaker races of late, but on his best form is well weighted on 54. Low-key buildup for Godolphin and Dettori and I just have a sneaky feeling
NB the guide says these two are 7yo's, but they're really only 6yo/rising 7yo when adjusted for the difference in breeding seasons between northern & southern hemiospheres
Of the rest, I have Americain/Galileo's Choice down as some hope, Mount Athos/Tac De Boistron/Zabeelionaire/Kellini as place chances, and either don't fancy/am taking a risk on the other eight.
No doubt I've made a bad blunder or three, but it's not called gambling for nothing. Now to get some sleep and let my subconscious wrestle with the above...
FWIW the three best-weighted runners for mine are
Dunaden - 1kg is a lenient penalty for such an emphatic CC win. He might already be the best Cup winner I've seen, and if he can win with 59 there'll be no argument from me. He'll be well back early and will need everything to go right when he makes his run, but he's one of the few with no question marks against him. Form has held up through the Mackinnon
Green Moon - if he was from a staying family I'd be all over him at the weights, but his damsire Green Tune got mostly sprinter-milers. Montjeu's blood will have to do the heavy lifting. Forget the Cox Plate run; how did he manage to get three wide from barrier 5, same gate as tomorrow? Doesn't race like a two-miler for mine, but if you think he'll get the trip, go in with the ears back I say!
Lights Of Heaven - again, not much stamina on the dam's side through Volksraad, who is proven as a broodmare sire up to a mile and a half, but not at extreme distances. Liked her combination of early speed and coming back underneath Nolen in the CC. Australasian Oaks/Brisbane Cup/Caulfield Cup form is sound for this. Might make this my main bet, but I'll be looking for better than the 20's on offer, and some doubts remain over her stamina. May also be a run short of 3200m fitness
Best of the rest
My Quest For Peace - only has to avoid blowing the start to get the run of the race. Has stronger form than Mount Athos for mine, and is therefore better weighted. Given a cosy run in the CC, couldn't quicken with the placegetters but still got to the line OK for mine
Maluckyday - got left when they sprinted at Geelong and happy to ignore that form. Handicapping's his go so his WFA runs have been sound enough. Fails ARCHYBOY's test of past runners and have a sneaking suspicion he might be half a run short of being ready for this. Gets the Zabeel bonus points from me
Red Cadeux - it really goes against the grain to give this a chance after not racing for nearly four months. Connections seem confident, but it'll be a monumental training performance if it gets up. Form is better than last year but I worry about him getting in...if he slots in midfield, and he's fit enough, it all changes. Not the type of horse I could ever back straight out, but I missed him last time and am not willing to put a line through him again
Smokies
Mourayan - has a reputation as a bit of a non-winner but his form is really very very good. Can he get a strong two miles and can Robert Hickmott of Mount Macedon upstage the big stables? Might be worth a spare dollar to find out
Cavalryman - this horse troubles me most of all, mainly because he mixes his form. Dramatically. Been going around in weaker races of late, but on his best form is well weighted on 54. Low-key buildup for Godolphin and Dettori and I just have a sneaky feeling
NB the guide says these two are 7yo's, but they're really only 6yo/rising 7yo when adjusted for the difference in breeding seasons between northern & southern hemiospheres
Of the rest, I have Americain/Galileo's Choice down as some hope, Mount Athos/Tac De Boistron/Zabeelionaire/Kellini as place chances, and either don't fancy/am taking a risk on the other eight.
No doubt I've made a bad blunder or three, but it's not called gambling for nothing. Now to get some sleep and let my subconscious wrestle with the above...
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Im with you on Ethiopia LTR, although i backed him a while back at $26. Get on him early for next years cups I reckon. On Red Cadeaux, I agree, it will *smile* off the entire nation, but dont forget Dunaden won the caufield cup first up. The frogs seem to be able to defy logic and do this. They must gallop them up the steps of the Eifell Tower. Dunaden to repeat Kiwis last to first today. watch for that big nose roll bobbing up and down and the ears flat on his head.
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
Im with you on Ethiopia LTR, although i backed him a while back at $26. Get on him early for next years cups I reckon. On Red Cadeaux, I agree, it will *smile* off the entire nation, but dont forget Dunaden won the caufield cup first up. The frogs seem to be able to defy logic and do this. They must gallop them up the steps of the Eifell Tower. Dunaden to repeat Kiwis last to first today. watch for that big nose roll bobbing up and down and the ears flat on his head.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
This is L2R2R's subconscious speaking. I'm pulling rank and ordering the dithering bastard to back Cavalryman. Just because. L2R2R knows not to question the logical disconnect and will do as I say. Frankie star jump FTW.
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
This is L2R2R's subconscious speaking. I'm pulling rank and ordering the dithering bastard to back Cavalryman. Just because. L2R2R knows not to question the logical disconnect and will do as I say. Frankie star jump FTW.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Maluckday and mourayan for leysy.
Good luck in the cup all
Maluckday and mourayan for leysy.
Good luck in the cup all
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
I love looking at Fransesca Cumani, but i am struggling with Bruce's flirting. Ellerton thing that ran 3rd in the last got me back in the game pre-cup. Breaking my roughie rule (I cant pick the right roughie) and going benendon in the next. Anything in the account after the next is going on Dunedan
I love looking at Fransesca Cumani, but i am struggling with Bruce's flirting. Ellerton thing that ran 3rd in the last got me back in the game pre-cup. Breaking my roughie rule (I cant pick the right roughie) and going benendon in the next. Anything in the account after the next is going on Dunedan
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Ethiopia each-way all day. Lights of Heaven, Fiorente and Tac de Boistron to fill the minors.
tigergollywog said:
Ethiopia each-way all day. Lights of Heaven, Fiorente and Tac de Boistron to fill the minors.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Dunaden to win
also trif Dunaden to win,
Red C, Winchester, Cavalryman, Galileo's Choice, Mourayan, MQFP, 2nd or 3rd.
Dunaden to win
also trif Dunaden to win,
Red C, Winchester, Cavalryman, Galileo's Choice, Mourayan, MQFP, 2nd or 3rd.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Too much to think about for me. The MOTH has Glencaddon Gold. I have Kelinni just cos I won well on it last week and a few sheckles on both of Bart's just in case. More of a watcher than a better on the cup. Hope Nash and Hot Schnitzel salute in the last
Too much to think about for me. The MOTH has Glencaddon Gold. I have Kelinni just cos I won well on it last week and a few sheckles on both of Bart's just in case. More of a watcher than a better on the cup. Hope Nash and Hot Schnitzel salute in the last
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Efficient replay.
$50K Trifecta! field/ field/ field costs $5K odd to take
Efficient replay.
$50K Trifecta! field/ field/ field costs $5K odd to take
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
$255,024 to take F/F/f/F 1st 4. Return $969,406.80
tigersnake said:
$255,024 to take F/F/f/F 1st 4. Return $969,406.80
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
First year since Williams last win with Efficient that neither me or the syndicate did not run a drum, nothing, no near misses, no 2 out of 3 in the trif, no gutsy late swoops, nothing.
I wonder if Williams flogged Green Moon like he did with Efficient? Lot of parallels. Both had never run the distance, both outsiders.
First year since Williams last win with Efficient that neither me or the syndicate did not run a drum, nothing, no near misses, no 2 out of 3 in the trif, no gutsy late swoops, nothing.
I wonder if Williams flogged Green Moon like he did with Efficient? Lot of parallels. Both had never run the distance, both outsiders.
