Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
I had a tidy sum on Alcopop in the MacKinnon, but ended up giving most of it back.
I had a tidy sum on Alcopop in the MacKinnon, but ended up giving most of it back.
ARCHYBOY said:Well guys, I'm sitting here at Coolangatta airport waiting for a flight home and have been able to get my hands on a form guide for the big one on Tuesday. Following my 3 rules for the MC that I mentioned a few pages back, I have narrowed the field down to 8 runners. They are Dunaden, Mount Athos, Ethiopia, Fiorente, Glencadam Gold, My Quest For Peace, Tac De Boistron & Lights of Heaven.
After doing some calculations, the bookies hold/percentage with only those runners is approx. 49% which is unbelievable value and Archy will be getting on. I think the best bet of the race is in there with Lights of Heaven being awesome each way value.
Hope you all find a winner on Tuesday, will be interesting to see if the rules hold up this year.
Streak said:I had a tidy sum on Alcopop in the MacKinnon, but ended up giving most of it back.
Remember that Rhys ride DyerereDyer'ere said:Quite happy to go easy on Derby day as usual.
My thinking was that Its Cool destroyed Its a Dundeel in the Vase so I had a few bob in the Derby. But I under estimated the winner. I was close enough if good enough. Damn. Its a Dundeel? Needs to improve.
I thought Alcopop, the nonnie, might turn the tables in a specious McKinnon, but 5/1 - meh. I have my pride. They didn't go hard, as expected.
I went mental aggressive in the Salinger, whatever it's called these days. Trifecta, 70% of my bank, Temple of Boom to beat Tiger Tees from Miss Marx. Insanely aggressive bet. Failed to factor the winner. Still can't factor it. Chance? My ignorance.
Let's talk about the race of this nation.
Rhys McLeod is a carnie. Maybe I'm overstating the situation. Not so long ago Rhys mistook the laps at a Moonee Valley meeting and accidentally won, screaming down the outside with 1600m to go. (Of course he didn't actually win.) At least, that's what bear tells me. And Gypsy. (I believe them.)
OTOH I like Sadler. He's the sort of bloke who could teach Rhys to count to two. 1, 2. And it was Rhys's ignorant balls that allowed him to destroy that Cox Plate by leading. Nobody factored him early. Of course, there was a price to pay for his stupidity - he went at the... 1000m. Off the rail before then and surging the leader (Proisir) way too early. IMO he should have finished at worst, two lengths closer.
It's so easy for us to say Sadler should have put G. Boss on. (OK. Unavailable.) Or Hugh Bowman. (Got commitments.) Or Nash. (Gai's rider so no.) Or Craig, riding for Lloyd. But even if they were free they are slaves to owners through speed maps. Rhys was free to destroy them all early. And he did.
The Frogs with form in Japan (there are none) or real form in the Arc (there are none) or G1 Hongkong (there is one) or elite Australian form (there are two) are the ones to beat.
The Melbourne Cup is not a 3000m+ race. That thinking is wrong. Sure, recent tempos have favoured soft horses to some extent. But this year you will be reminded or you will learn, that the Melbourne Cup is the longest mile and a half race in the world.
Everything I said about Lights of Heaven earlier? Right tactics, wrong horse. Does Rhys Mcleod have the balls to go at the 1700m? Is Sadler smart enough to instruct him?
The carnie can learn to count to two. He must go at the mile, sapce them and make them carry their weight. Then he can win on Ethiopia.
1 mile, 2 miles.
scottyturnerscurse said:Similar to my batch but dunno how you don't have Red Cadeaux in there. Will start second fave IMO.
mk33 said:Hope Sadler is not instructing Rhys seeing as though he trains Winchester and Pat Carey trains Ethiopia
Being backing Ethiopia since its 2nd start (admit only has had 7), liked it the day we saw run Blue Diamond day and loved it after AJC. Just worried that last week was it Grand Final, Carey has said all along that wont be in Cup as too inexperinced and dont like horses that maybe are not set for the race and just a after thought. Will still put something small on it just as have being all along. Like Dunaden of the favourites and My Quest for Peace as roughie and will throw in exactas, trifectas and Qauddie and hope I win something that is better than Derby day miserable collection..
mk33 said:Unsure qualifying methods of the overseas horses in their races, just think there should be higher criteria/emphasis placed on 2400m + Group listed races like Herbert Power, Geelong Cup and Moonee valley Cup winners in getting into the cup.
Tony Braxton-Hicks said:I heard an interesting stat: if you had $1 on the winner of the first and turned that into an all-up bet with all the other winners, how much would you have won?
mk33 said:Just on Melbourne Cup did people think there should be more emphasis on racing form shown in the spring carnival.
Aware the Lexus and Caulfield Cup winners are automatic entries and perhaps the Sydney Metro.
Surely though Herbert Power 2400m Group 2 (shawardi winner), Geelong Cup 2400m Group 3(Gatewood) and Moonee Valley Cup 2500m Group 2 (Vatuvei) should be automatic entries.
The Melbourne Cup should be entrants of form horses and these three are recent winners of staying races .
How did Unusual Suspect and Precedence qualify for example
Is there basis for form over last 2-3 years
Unusual Suspect won a race Nov 10 2414m at Hollywood as its last win
since then 10th Cranbourne Cup 2011, 6th Caulfield Cup, 9th Melbourne Cup, 6th and 9th in 2000m race Dubai, 8th 3200 in Dubai
This spring 9th 1700m Caulfield, 11th naturalism 2000m, 15th Cranbourne Cup and 5th MV Cup
Precedence
Has had two go's at Melbourne Cup for 10th and 11th, 7th Sydney Cup and BMW this year
This spring 4th at 1400, won 1600m race at the Valley, 10th 2040 at Valley, 6th Herbert Powerby 4.3 lengths, and 4th MV Cup
Seems to be also emphasis on Derby winners/Oaks winners from last year getting in
Zabeelionaire maybe qualifying off the SA Derby 2500 in May and
Ethiopia even though one of my favourites has won only 1 race the Australian Derby in April at 2400m.
Unsure qualifying methods of the overseas horses in their races, just think there should be higher criteria/emphasis placed on 2400m + Group listed races like Herbert Power, Geelong Cup and Moonee valley Cup winners in getting into the cup.