Thoroughbred racing | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Thoroughbred racing

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

My tail is well and truly between my legs. I picked Cale Morton over Trent Cotchin in most races.

The final indignity was an attempted get out on Fawkner but the Luxbet website froze and I missed out.
 
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I hear that our gun full forward got the quaddie yesterday. Good on you Jack.
 
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Well guys, I'm sitting here at Coolangatta airport waiting for a flight home and have been able to get my hands on a form guide for the big one on Tuesday. Following my 3 rules for the MC that I mentioned a few pages back, I have narrowed the field down to 8 runners. They are Dunaden, Mount Athos, Ethiopia, Fiorente, Glencadam Gold, My Quest For Peace, Tac De Boistron & Lights of Heaven.

After doing some calculations, the bookies hold/percentage with only those runners is approx. 49% which is unbelievable value and Archy will be getting on. I think the best bet of the race is in there with Lights of Heaven being awesome each way value.

Hope you all find a winner on Tuesday, will be interesting to see if the rules hold up this year.
 
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ARCHYBOY said:
Well guys, I'm sitting here at Coolangatta airport waiting for a flight home and have been able to get my hands on a form guide for the big one on Tuesday. Following my 3 rules for the MC that I mentioned a few pages back, I have narrowed the field down to 8 runners. They are Dunaden, Mount Athos, Ethiopia, Fiorente, Glencadam Gold, My Quest For Peace, Tac De Boistron & Lights of Heaven.

After doing some calculations, the bookies hold/percentage with only those runners is approx. 49% which is unbelievable value and Archy will be getting on. I think the best bet of the race is in there with Lights of Heaven being awesome each way value.

Hope you all find a winner on Tuesday, will be interesting to see if the rules hold up this year.

Similar to my batch but dunno how you don't have Red Cadeaux in there. Will start second fave IMO.
 
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MT ATHOS AND MOURAYAN BET BOTH EACH WAY AND YOU WILL MAKE A PROFIT - GET ON AND GET IN THE CUE
 
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Dosage figures from Sportsman. A figure of 1.00 represents a perfect balance of speed:stamina (theoretically). The lower the figures, the more likely the horse is to get over an extreme distance (theoretically). #1 rule - if they can't get the trip, they're out!

0.69/5.40 Dunanden
0.34/1.46 Americain
0.73/1.93 Jakkalberry
0.50/1.67 Red Cadeaux
0.18/1.10 Winchester
0.40/1.35 Voila Ici
0.31/1.67 Cavalryman
-0.39/0.51 Mount Athos
-0.31/0.63 Sanagas
0.20/1.11 Ethiopia
-0.07/0.75 Fiorente
0.32/1.43 Galileo's Choice
0.04/0.85 Glencadam Gold
0.06/0.80 Green Moon
-0.28/0.78 Maluckyday
0.43/1.55 Mourayan
0.14/0.87 My Quest For Peace
-0.44/0.36 Niwot
0.61/2.27 Tac De Boistron
0.14/1.42 Lights Of Heaven
-0.26/0.77 Precedence
0.56/2.05 Unusual Suspect
-0.28/0.75 Zabeelionaire
-0.09/0.76 Kelinni

Past winners:
0.69/5.40 Dunaden
0.34/1.46 Americain
0.43/1.84 Shocking
0.50/1.90 Viewed
-0.17/0.92 Efficient
0.64/1.93 Delta Blues
0.57/2.41 Makybe Diva
0.46/1.53 Media Puzzle
0.70/2.52 Ethereal
0.17/1.30 Brew
0.44/1.91 Rogan Josh
-0.15/1.04 Jezabeel
-0.26/0.75 Might And Power
0.12/1.27 Saintly

My 'quickie' method, in years when I haven't had a chance to do the form properly, has been to focus on runners with Zabeel in their pedigrees, or failing that, his sire Sir Tristram. Zabeel is back as a force this year with four runners - Maluckyday, Lights Of Heaven, Precedence & Zabeelionaire, with a dose on the dam's side for Ethiopia. That the invaders seem to have got it right, and the Sir Tristram line is fading, have shaken my confidence after Shoot Out, Roman Emperor and At First Sight returned donuts. Perhaps one more chance...

Am going to the Cup for the first time. Usually the sheer number of people puts me off as I'm only there to punt, but hopefully it won't be too packed in the Members'.
 
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It was OK there on Sat LTRTR, except outside.

Drinks & bets were fine to get on. Only issue is mobile reception, which leysy (betfair) & most punters use these days.
 
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Wouldn't stress to much about At First Sight last year LTRTR, had it going in a big double with Southern Speed winning the CC and it was a standard shocking ride by Steven King.
 
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Quite happy to go easy on Derby day as usual.

My thinking was that Its Cool destroyed Its a Dundeel in the Vase so I had a few bob in the Derby. But I under estimated the winner. I was close enough if good enough. Damn. Its a Dundeel? Needs to improve.

I thought Alcopop, the nonnie, might turn the tables in a specious McKinnon, but 5/1 - meh. I have my pride. They didn't go hard, as expected.

I went mental aggressive in the Salinger, whatever it's called these days. Trifecta, 70% of my bank, Temple of Boom to beat Tiger Tees from Miss Marx. Insanely aggressive bet. Failed to factor the winner. Still can't factor it. Chance? My ignorance.

Let's talk about the race of this nation.

Rhys McLeod is a carnie. Maybe I'm overstating the situation. Not so long ago Rhys mistook the laps at a Moonee Valley meeting and accidentally won, screaming down the outside with 1600m to go. (Of course he didn't actually win.) At least, that's what bear tells me. And Gypsy. (I believe them.)

OTOH I like Sadler. He's the sort of bloke who could teach Rhys to count to two. 1, 2. And it was Rhys's ignorant balls that allowed him to destroy that Cox Plate by leading. Nobody factored him early. Of course, there was a price to pay for his stupidity - he went at the... 1000m. Off the rail before then and surging the leader (Proisir) way too early. IMO he should have finished at worst, two lengths closer.

It's so easy for us to say Sadler should have put G. Boss on. (OK. Unavailable.) Or Hugh Bowman. (Got commitments.) Or Nash. (Gai's rider so no.) Or Craig, riding for Lloyd. But even if they were free they are slaves to owners through speed maps. Rhys was free to destroy them all early. And he did.

The Frogs with form in Japan (there are none) or real form in the Arc (there are none) or G1 Hongkong (there is one) or elite Australian form (there are two) are the ones to beat.

The Melbourne Cup is not a 3000m+ race. That thinking is wrong. Sure, recent tempos have favoured soft horses to some extent. But this year you will be reminded or you will learn, that the Melbourne Cup is the longest mile and a half race in the world.

Everything I said about Lights of Heaven earlier? Right tactics, wrong horse. Does Rhys Mcleod have the balls to go at the 1700m? Is Sadler smart enough to instruct him?

The carnie can learn to count to two. He must go at the mile, sapce them and make them carry their weight. Then he can win on Ethiopia.

1 mile, 2 miles.
 
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Streak said:
I had a tidy sum on Alcopop in the MacKinnon, but ended up giving most of it back.

I had Alcopop for the win. The odds made it worthwhile. A good each win with Nash and good odds some placings. I don't have RFC size bragging rights (well done there) but had a very successful day by my standards. At least got plenty to probably give back on Cup Day. :hihi

Haven't studied the form guide closely. Will be watching Nash of course. Spirit of Sophie is a no brainer for me. Named after my daughter, Nash is on board and I had the biggest win of my life on her Mum on Melbourne Cup day several years ago. Not fancied but I can't not be on board.

I don't study the Cup too closely. Never heard of most of the horses and too many variables. Can't agree with Dyer that it's not a 3000+ race. Plenty look good but conk out before the finish post and the jockeys say they were honest but just couldn't stay the trip. Will have to stick with Kelinni seeing it's named after my dog. My bet on Saturday was the second biggest collect I've ever had. Pity Nash couldn't make the Cup weight but the Boss man isn't a bad replacement. My other bet will be a Bart... probably Precedence but not sure yet.

The other races will be on gut feel as they parade pre race...name, looks, colours, jockey etc.

Gee internet betting is good on cup day. I recall the days we all had to pick our bets early and I dialled and dialled to get them on way before the races began. Bad luck if anyone had a late whim...couldn't get through.
 
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Im with Dyerere, I like Ethiopia but have little faith in the Jockey. Put Williams, Oliver or Boss on him and I'd be plonking him, but with Rhys, Im gonna look on. I cant go past Dunaden. Plonked him in the Caufield Cup and have a bit left over to have a go tommorow. Will start at 7's I reckon which is sweet odds these days. The way he pins his ears back says he'll win too me. Gonna reinvest heavily on him straight out and box a triffy 1,2,4,5,8,10,17. The Cup is a bit like the draft these days, the Top 10 are fairly predictable. I will the filling e-phone account and having an interest in the other races. I have a theory that every small-time trainer in the land trains for a winner on cup day, and so you often see bolters from the bush bob up at odds. So my Cup day system is to pick the best horse >20/1 in each race. In the last few years, >20/1 horses win a hell of a lot of races on Cup day, but ive been backing the wrong ones.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Dyer'ere said:
Quite happy to go easy on Derby day as usual.

My thinking was that Its Cool destroyed Its a Dundeel in the Vase so I had a few bob in the Derby. But I under estimated the winner. I was close enough if good enough. Damn. Its a Dundeel? Needs to improve.

I thought Alcopop, the nonnie, might turn the tables in a specious McKinnon, but 5/1 - meh. I have my pride. They didn't go hard, as expected.

I went mental aggressive in the Salinger, whatever it's called these days. Trifecta, 70% of my bank, Temple of Boom to beat Tiger Tees from Miss Marx. Insanely aggressive bet. Failed to factor the winner. Still can't factor it. Chance? My ignorance.

Let's talk about the race of this nation.

Rhys McLeod is a carnie. Maybe I'm overstating the situation. Not so long ago Rhys mistook the laps at a Moonee Valley meeting and accidentally won, screaming down the outside with 1600m to go. (Of course he didn't actually win.) At least, that's what bear tells me. And Gypsy. (I believe them.)

OTOH I like Sadler. He's the sort of bloke who could teach Rhys to count to two. 1, 2. And it was Rhys's ignorant balls that allowed him to destroy that Cox Plate by leading. Nobody factored him early. Of course, there was a price to pay for his stupidity - he went at the... 1000m. Off the rail before then and surging the leader (Proisir) way too early. IMO he should have finished at worst, two lengths closer.

It's so easy for us to say Sadler should have put G. Boss on. (OK. Unavailable.) Or Hugh Bowman. (Got commitments.) Or Nash. (Gai's rider so no.) Or Craig, riding for Lloyd. But even if they were free they are slaves to owners through speed maps. Rhys was free to destroy them all early. And he did.

The Frogs with form in Japan (there are none) or real form in the Arc (there are none) or G1 Hongkong (there is one) or elite Australian form (there are two) are the ones to beat.

The Melbourne Cup is not a 3000m+ race. That thinking is wrong. Sure, recent tempos have favoured soft horses to some extent. But this year you will be reminded or you will learn, that the Melbourne Cup is the longest mile and a half race in the world.

Everything I said about Lights of Heaven earlier? Right tactics, wrong horse. Does Rhys Mcleod have the balls to go at the 1700m? Is Sadler smart enough to instruct him?

The carnie can learn to count to two. He must go at the mile, sapce them and make them carry their weight. Then he can win on Ethiopia.

1 mile, 2 miles.
Remember that Rhys ride Dyerere
Here is alink from racing victoria for it

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/news/RVL/n_McLeod_has_his_timing_right.aspx

Hope Sadler is not instructing Rhys seeing as though he trains Winchester and Pat Carey trains Ethiopia
Being backing Ethiopia since its 2nd start (admit only has had 7), liked it the day we saw run Blue Diamond day and loved it after AJC.
Just worried that last week was it Grand Final, Carey has said all along that wont be in Cup as too inexperinced and dont like horses that maybe are not set for the race and just a after thought. Will still put something small on it just as have being all along. Like Dunaden of the favourites and My Quest for Peace as roughie and will throw in exactas, trifectas and Qauddie and hope I win something that is better than Derby day miserable collection..
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Just on Melbourne Cup did people think there should be more emphasis on racing form shown in the spring carnival.
Aware the Lexus and Caulfield Cup winners are automatic entries and perhaps the Sydney Metro.
Surely though Herbert Power 2400m Group 2 (shawardi winner), Geelong Cup 2400m Group 3(Gatewood) and Moonee Valley Cup 2500m Group 2 (Vatuvei) should be automatic entries.

The Melbourne Cup should be entrants of form horses and these three are recent winners of staying races .
How did Unusual Suspect and Precedence qualify for example

Is there basis for form over last 2-3 years
Unusual Suspect won a race Nov 10 2414m at Hollywood as its last win
since then 10th Cranbourne Cup 2011, 6th Caulfield Cup, 9th Melbourne Cup, 6th and 9th in 2000m race Dubai, 8th 3200 in Dubai
This spring 9th 1700m Caulfield, 11th naturalism 2000m, 15th Cranbourne Cup and 5th MV Cup

Precedence
Has had two go's at Melbourne Cup for 10th and 11th, 7th Sydney Cup and BMW this year
This spring 4th at 1400, won 1600m race at the Valley, 10th 2040 at Valley, 6th Herbert Powerby 4.3 lengths, and 4th MV Cup

Seems to be also emphasis on Derby winners/Oaks winners from last year getting in
Zabeelionaire maybe qualifying off the SA Derby 2500 in May and
Ethiopia even though one of my favourites has won only 1 race the Australian Derby in April at 2400m.

Unsure qualifying methods of the overseas horses in their races, just think there should be higher criteria/emphasis placed on 2400m + Group listed races like Herbert Power, Geelong Cup and Moonee valley Cup winners in getting into the cup.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

scottyturnerscurse said:
Similar to my batch but dunno how you don't have Red Cadeaux in there. Will start second fave IMO.

Dont have it in because it ran in the race last year and didnt win, its very highly unlikely for a horse to win the Cup at its second attempt without winning it at its first.

See my post a few pages back scotty and you'll see what Im talking about.
 
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mk33 said:
Hope Sadler is not instructing Rhys seeing as though he trains Winchester and Pat Carey trains Ethiopia
Being backing Ethiopia since its 2nd start (admit only has had 7), liked it the day we saw run Blue Diamond day and loved it after AJC. Just worried that last week was it Grand Final, Carey has said all along that wont be in Cup as too inexperinced and dont like horses that maybe are not set for the race and just a after thought. Will still put something small on it just as have being all along. Like Dunaden of the favourites and My Quest for Peace as roughie and will throw in exactas, trifectas and Qauddie and hope I win something that is better than Derby day miserable collection..

Connections must have a massive opinion of this horse. Won the Derby coming from last but McLeod says he is going to race in the front half again tomorrow - fingernail-chewing time as he attempts to slot in from 14. Isn't well in at the weights as the winner of one race IMO. Couldn't tell you the last winner going in with as few as 7 starts under its belt, but am pretty sure it hasn't happened in living memory. And less than 6000m in lead-up runs...it isn't something Bart would do. Like the horse, but it can run against me.

Just noticed Red Cadeaux hasn't started since mid-July. Hope it gets beaten, first-uppers winning the Cup makes it too damn difficult!
 
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mk33 said:
Unsure qualifying methods of the overseas horses in their races, just think there should be higher criteria/emphasis placed on 2400m + Group listed races like Herbert Power, Geelong Cup and Moonee valley Cup winners in getting into the cup.

FWIW, my Grandfather used to swear by the Geelong Cup as a guide for Cup day, but he used it in conjunction with some other races. He got the formula from a mate who was a racing writer many years ago. I don't know the formula, but it was quite involved.

I assume he did alright with it though.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

According to a close Cumani source in Newmarket, Luca thought Athos was a little plump when he arrived last week. "But he races well fresh". Mmm.

Luca also said in an interview that there wasn't as much between his two runners at the odds suggest, so either Quest is an $8 chance or Athos is a $20 chance. More like something in between.

It's hard to go past the top two but not much value there. I'm wondering whether the best value is $9 Lights of Heaven or $19 Zabeelionaire as the first Aussie home.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Tony Braxton-Hicks said:
I heard an interesting stat: if you had $1 on the winner of the first and turned that into an all-up bet with all the other winners, how much would you have won?

The answer was $180 million.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

mk33 said:
Just on Melbourne Cup did people think there should be more emphasis on racing form shown in the spring carnival.
Aware the Lexus and Caulfield Cup winners are automatic entries and perhaps the Sydney Metro.
Surely though Herbert Power 2400m Group 2 (shawardi winner), Geelong Cup 2400m Group 3(Gatewood) and Moonee Valley Cup 2500m Group 2 (Vatuvei) should be automatic entries.

The Melbourne Cup should be entrants of form horses and these three are recent winners of staying races .
How did Unusual Suspect and Precedence qualify for example

Is there basis for form over last 2-3 years
Unusual Suspect won a race Nov 10 2414m at Hollywood as its last win
since then 10th Cranbourne Cup 2011, 6th Caulfield Cup, 9th Melbourne Cup, 6th and 9th in 2000m race Dubai, 8th 3200 in Dubai
This spring 9th 1700m Caulfield, 11th naturalism 2000m, 15th Cranbourne Cup and 5th MV Cup

Precedence
Has had two go's at Melbourne Cup for 10th and 11th, 7th Sydney Cup and BMW this year
This spring 4th at 1400, won 1600m race at the Valley, 10th 2040 at Valley, 6th Herbert Powerby 4.3 lengths, and 4th MV Cup

Seems to be also emphasis on Derby winners/Oaks winners from last year getting in
Zabeelionaire maybe qualifying off the SA Derby 2500 in May and
Ethiopia even though one of my favourites has won only 1 race the Australian Derby in April at 2400m.

Unsure qualifying methods of the overseas horses in their races, just think there should be higher criteria/emphasis placed on 2400m + Group listed races like Herbert Power, Geelong Cup and Moonee valley Cup winners in getting into the cup.

Agree with a lot of this. The world doesn't give two hoots about our race. Should be at least four more automatic qualifying races, that are in early spring or autumn. Also, despite the change in distances, the Brissie and Adel Cup winners should go straight in too.

In two years time, the entire field will be owned by Terry Henderson et al, who just go to Europe and buy G3 winners for stupid prices just to get a Cup runner.

Anyway, hope Ethiopia and Lights of Heaven brain the field. Both well priced, especially the latter given the trainer has something others don't.