Thoroughbred racing

[Leysy Days]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Good discussion folks. An old adage 'barriers effect prices not winners'.

Whilst not quite true, it does hold some sway. Good jocks can overcome bad barriers. Also depends on the start/track. i.e as LTRTR said over 1100 or 1200m at Caulfield outside gates are no disadvantage at all. Leysy would say a bonus. Typically not so the 1400m.

But even then a gun hoop can overcome it & get you a far better price than you would otherwise get. 2nd best hoop in the land ILO Hugh Bowman ride Streama a treat from an outside gate the course on Sat. The bonus, you get a bigger dividend than you would otherwise get as everyone pots the outside gates.

Dunaden another example. No chance leysy gets $19 if it draws well last week. The pace of the race meant it was actually an advantage in the end & leysy copped an estimated double the price (& bet) for his troubles.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

But even then a gun hoop can overcome it & get you a far better price than you would otherwise get.

Even the best jockeys need a healthy slice of luck on an average beginner. Price needs to be very very good to compensate. Most will elect to ride contrary to the horse's normal pattern (i.e. forward or back) rather than race wide.

As Leysy suggests, the draw didn't impact Dunaden's chances at all as he was able to cross to the rail without a hassle at the rear of the field.

 

[Eric]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

One horse I believe is capable of winning the cup is It's a Dundeel he'll win the Derby on his ear and if i was pulling the stings i'd have a crack cause he's one serious stayer.

Maybe next year but he is not nominated / accepted this year. From memory there was only one three year old in the Melbourne Cup 1st acceptances.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Maybe next year but he is not nominated / accepted this year. From memory there was only one three year old in the Melbourne Cup 1st acceptances.

Derby winner is exempt from the Cup ballot if it wishes to run. Last one I can recall was Stylish Century, which didn't end well.

 

[Coughlan24]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Nothin Leica Dane ran 2nd as a 3yo after winning the Derby back in 1995 behind Doriemus carried 47.5kgs. You get It's A Dundeel in with 47.5 and he'd be a hope although i think the limit may have risen since then.

 

[tigersnake]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Not convinced on Geelong Cup form this year. It may have served to shake out the cobwebs for Brigantin, and he was blocked for a run, but generally I'll sit up and take notice only if its a real blistering run, wasn't this year. I'll be having another look at the CC.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Not convinced on Geelong Cup form this year. It may have served to shake out the cobwebs for Brigantin, and he was blocked for a run, but generally I'll sit up and take notice only if its a real blistering run, wasn't this year. I'll be having another look at the CC.

Agree. Geelong RC will conduct a review into why the field resembled a Sandown Classic. Country cups and small fields don't mix.

 

[Leysy Days]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Here's my take on Brigantin, snake. He's the opposite of what I want to do. He's fashionable. Nup. Way too short for mine. The recent French form is disgraceful IMO, ts. Which is not always a bad thing. To run second in a 3000m track gallop in 3:17 has no bearing on racing as we know it. (Good track BTW.) The Geelong Cup is a much better guide. If he wins it by five he should be second favourite at $7. If he fails the French form is Franced.

As always leysy is still trying to figure out what your saying ;D, but the Frog form is HOT. The PRIX KERGORLAY (Brigantin's last race) has form everywhere.

The 3rd horse Shahwardi has walked up the Herbert Power, the winner Joshua Tree has since won a million pound Group 1 against an International field. Brigantin (2nd) carried weight & finished best in a sprint home in the Geelong Cup (Winner came home in 32 flat ).

The Snail eating form is good.

 

[tigersnake]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Hmmm, its interesting. For years I used to lay the global raiders, then backed Media Puzzle, Delta Blues (got the trif that year). I can see both your points Dyer'ere and Leysey. I've done really well in the Melbourne Cup over the last 20 years, I thinks its a bit of jag-arsed luck, but my simple rule is CC form, runners that look like they need more track at the end, and Geelong Cup form if the winner flogs 'em. (As you say Dyer'ere, I was looking for Brigantin to flog 'em, he didn't) . Maybe a look at MV Cup form as well (Brew, tend to be in the first 4). I discount Sydney form. I look out for 2 mile form, thats it.

Thing is, this year, heaps of runners looked like they could have won the CC if it was another Q mile. For that reason, this year its hard IMO.

 

[Eric]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Derby winner is exempt from the Cup ballot if it wishes to run. Last one I can recall was Stylish Century, which didn't end well.

Only if they have been nominated and are a first and second acceptor:

The winner of the following, if any should be a nomination and a first, second and final acceptor for
the 2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup, shall be exempt from any ballot on this race:
- 2012 VRC The Lexus Stakes
- 2012 VRC AAMI Victoria Derby
- 2012 VRC Mackinnon Stakes
- 2012 MVRC Cox Plate
- 2012 MRC Caulfield Cup
- 2012 Irish St Leger (IRE)
- 2012 Tenno Sho (Spring) (JPN)

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/asset/cms/SRC12%20site/Melbourne%20Cup%202012.pdf


Its a Dundeel wasnt a first or second acceptor so cant run even if it wins the Derby

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Only if they have been nominated and are a first and second acceptor:

The winner of the following, if any should be a nomination and a first, second and final acceptor for
the 2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup, shall be exempt from any ballot on this race:
- 2012 VRC The Lexus Stakes
- 2012 VRC AAMI Victoria Derby
- 2012 VRC Mackinnon Stakes
- 2012 MVRC Cox Plate
- 2012 MRC Caulfield Cup
- 2012 Irish St Leger (IRE)
- 2012 Tenno Sho (Spring) (JPN)

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/asset/cms/SRC12%20site/Melbourne%20Cup%202012.pdf

Its a Dundeel wasnt a first or second acceptor so cant run even if it wins the Derby

Yes, you're right and I'm wrong. It seems they removed the Derby winner's automatic inclusion in 2007. They probably didn't want to risk upsetting connections of an international for the sake of the owner deciding to run on a whim, as happened with Stylish Century.

 

[tigersnake]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

http://www.racingnetwork.com.au/mott-for-winchester-in-the-cups/tabid/83/newsid/9975/default.aspx

Heard an interview with Sadler this morning and he said Mott stays, says the same above, damnit. He also said they think they'll run Winchester in the Mackinnon because he works best 2 or 3 days after a race.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Just read this article relation to barrier draws. Funny.

John Singleton finds no Joy in Gai Waterhouse's Cox Plate barrier tactics
by: Ray Thomas From: The Daily Telegraph October 24, 2012 12:00am


JOHN Singleton said he was gutted but Gai Waterhouse maintains she has done the right thing as the great Cox Plate barrier draw controversy threatens to put a long friendship to the test.

This article reminds me a lot of the grab from Macdonald, Rosy. A lot to be read between the lines.

By choosing barrier eleven, Gai all but guaranteed that her 3yos would draw inside her and therefore get cover.

MJ may get the 2000m these days and perhaps she'll get a softish run outside the leader or maybe even lead. The barrier is incidental if she gets easy sectionals after crossing.

But Gai's other riders will know exactly what's going on and will get the trail. And at least two other riders will want her to get peace in front. If they are next behind he they can guarantee it for about 1200m.

It's not quite team riding but it'll do 'til we get some.

Singo is reading between the lines. His horse isn't preferred by the stable. The 3yos will be given every chance.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

http://www.racingnetwork.com.au/mott-for-winchester-in-the-cups/tabid/83/newsid/9975/default.aspx

Heard an interview with Sadler this morning and he said Mott stays, says the same above, damnit. He also said they think they'll run Winchester in the Mackinnon because he works best 2 or 3 days after a race.

Maybe Sadler should explain to Mott that it is impossible to pass a horse if your horse has its head up the other runner's arse, ts. That said, Winchester was stone dead. but eh, maybe Dunaden was too. ;D

We shall discuss the Frog form over time, Bryan. And fair enough not being able to decipher that garbled tosh. I was sober when I wrote it.

 

[Scoop]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Reckon Gai is trying to pull a team effort here. Get all her horses to the front and let them hold on for the win.

If it comes off, it will be one for the ages. Legend making stuff.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Reckon Gai is trying to pull a team effort here. Get all her horses to the front and let them hold on for the win.

If it comes off, it will be one for the ages. Legend making stuff.

If it were a true team ride, SCOOPer, she's send MJ out at a very good clip. Make the grownups carry their weight. Let the 3yos get a cuddle on the rail and then make their own race from the 300m. Pierro to cart Proisir along. And then damn it all All Too Hard outstays them. ;D

 

[Rosy]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

By choosing barrier eleven, Gai all but guaranteed that her 3yos would draw inside her and therefore get cover.

I love Singo's quote in here. "Wives come and go; barriers last forever" :hihi

It will be interesting to see how it pans out. Will Pierro turn the tables on All Too Hard? Will All Too Hard earn the credit for being a very good horse which he didn't get last run? Will Southern Speed justify the CC scratching? Will another horse slip under the radar? Will Nash be lauded instead of questioned? Haven't seen the fields yet but go More Joyous.

More Joyous trainer Gai Waterhouse admits: 'I'm still terrified to ring Singo'
by: Gai Waterhouse From: The Daily Telegraph October 26, 2012 12:00am

WELL, I certainly put my foot in it in choosing champion mare More Joyous's barrier draw of 11 of 14.

The Moonee Valley Club deliciously allow connections (in order of being drawn out of a hat) to choose their own alleys.

Singo is, evidently, incandescent with rage over my choice. I say "evidently" because I'm terrified to ring him.

I have his words ringing in my ears of a few years ago before the Ha Ha Golden Slipper draw: "Wives come and go; barriers last forever!"

I regret the pain I've caused my dear mate, John. I'm very sorry, John.

There is a saying in advertising: "Be Chocolate Chip or Raspberry Ripple but never just Vanilla."

I hope ad-man Singo, who calls me his "very flawed genius", at least appreciates my not being vanilla!

NO BARRIER TO SUCCESS

I SEE Australia's biggest punter, Sean Bartholomew, who does extraordinarily clever race modelling, said yesterday on Twitter: "If (I) could choose any barrier to back in Cox Plate it would be 11."

I think it is more so, More Joyous being a "pace" horse.

My friend, respected form analyst Dom Beirne, was kind enough to email me this note: "More Joyous will lead this field or sit outside the lead; the only way that wouldn't have happened would have been if she had drawn an inside barrier and was slowly away or got bumped and boxed in.

"You have removed that risk. By the way, the champion mare's two 'personal best' ratings were winning the Doncaster from barrier 10 and the Queen Elizabeth from the second-outside barrier."

I'm not sure how Singo would have her ridden, he's forbidden me from having any input. If she is allowed to go forward (which is, I think, her only chance to win), she'll lead or be outside the pacemaker.

Her only competition for the lead is Glass Harmonium, but he usually misses the kick, especially on big, noisy days.

Both Proisir and Pierro can be both a shade tardy, but it is in their best interest to be second and third. The three of mine might just take the trifecta. Let's hope.

Moonee Valley is such a different course: the tightest track, shortest straight, very cambered and the artificial Strathair surface. And the barriers "play" differently.


PIERRO CAN ATONE

MY son Tom Waterhouse asked for my best bet for the weekend so he can make his special offer. I said: "The champion, Pierro."

Tom will give any readers of this column a money-back guarantee on Pierro up to $25. Pretty good bet - can't lose.

Pierro should atone for his shock defeat in the Caulfield Guineas two weeks ago, when he broke the cardinal Caulfield rule and went "up the hill" so fast. He'll love the 9.5kg he receives from the older horses under the weight-for-age scale. And the 2040m is perfect for him.

That is not to say More Joyous and Proisir don't have undeniable chances. More Joyous is as good as when she won the Queen Elizabeth.

Proisir is the big improver, with the best turn of foot and also the 9.5kg weight advantage for being a three-year-old.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]


"I'm not sure how Singo would have her ridden, he's forbidden me from having any input. If she is allowed to go forward (which is, I think, her only chance to win), she'll lead or be outside the pacemaker."

Heh heh. It can't be a team ride because Singo instructed the rider. Love the advertorial for her boy.


The money for More Joyous is probably partly Singleton's but it could be smart money too.

The first wildcard in the Cox Plate is Glenn Boss. And Ocean Park. I trust Boss but Ocean Park is an unknown in many ways. I am by no means in love with OC's form but that's not to say the best of it is exposed. If J MacDonald were riding I would put a line through the OC name. But I trust Boss's judgement and he's enthusiastic about his mount. And I trust his ability to ride. What I don't know is how he'll begin. And how much early speed he can muster, and even then whether it will hurt him to use it early. IN the end I've decided the 3yos will burn him.

As Gai mentions Glass Harmonium will probs miss the kick. The 3yos have to go forward. As does Ocean Park inasmuch as he can.

Proisir does not have the advantage of a superior jock IMO. Although I respect Beirne's rating generally, on Newitt - Nup. Nup.

Pierro has to go straight to the front across Shoot Out. He'll burn them. Priosir has to move across outside him and Ocean Park and More Joyous have to work for a bit. Logically, Nash Rawiller should leave Pierro in front. Not cross. Ocean Park has either dropped out, taken a sit or is trapped three wide. Anyway you look at it Nash does not spend a penny more at this stage of the race. He must take the sit on the back of Ocean Park if it comes, leaving Pierro in front and thus hurt the two main chances around him. Or leave Ocean Park three wide, or even better - back in the field. (Reckon Boss will be more decisive than that and Munce will yield on All Too Hard, leaving Ocean Park sixth-one-out. Handy spot.)

OK. Another scenario. Proisir should lead. So, in this scenario, Newitt crosses Pierro (Brown will love the cover) and then Nash settles outside him.

Weight advantage creates speed. The 3yos, and there are three of them - one quick, the other super-quick, must make the elderly carry their weight. Must go early.

More Joyous barely gets a hard mile. Working at a hard clip over a mile and a quarter? Tough. You thought the Tk Hcp was rugged? Gai hurt the mare's chances at the barrier draw. If Nash had #6 and a free rein he could get her a cuddle. Ouch, Gai. Ouch.

If the three 3yos were trained by different trainers there would be a speed - guaranteed. But from the 1200m horses at the back of the field will make runs.

There are plenty of substandard jocks who will panic, and set their charges alight. If he were working for Hayes (who calls that working?) Craig Williams would be one of them. If he weren't giving his mount every chance to prove to be Phar Lap.

Boss won't panic.

Steven Arnold, Dwayne Dunn, J, MacDonald and Kerrin McEvoy do not belong at the level. Rhys McLeod is a joke.

But the funny thing is that they may be suited. When Dwayne Dunn rode four Blue Diamond winners in a row he slaughtered his horse at on at least three occasions.

I expect a speed, by virtue of the number of lightweights. I expect a teamish ride from the trainer of two of them but I think there will be fiinshers either way.

Green Moon will race three wide all the way if it's slowish run. Or move handy if it's quick. He must run 1,2.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Some disturbing claims being made by the Chairman of the Victorian Bookmakers' Association.

- "There are discernible patterns that occur when certain groups of jockeys, trainers and owners (are together). You have to look at whether this race is worth placing bets on. You look at these patterns before you look at the genuine form."
- "There's no doubt in my mind there are very large syndicates or individuals with access to large portions of money on behalf of unknown individuals who clearly have miraculous form assessment capabilities or they are getting information from wherever. They are success rates that test the realms of plausibility."
- [Mr. Hsu] said a recent major race at a city track was regarded as suspicious by bookies.
- "I've worked as a banker and an investment banker for 23 years. I can tell you right now, I've seen lots of thieves in my industry and lots of thieves in this industry."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/victorian-bookmakers-air-concerns-on-race-fixing/story-fn67siys-1226504201592

 

[tigergollywog]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Ethiopia EW in the Cox Plate. Bred as a genuine stayer with the toughness and burst of speed needed to win this race. The Valley wont really suit him, but the front of this race is going to be like kids at a treasure hunt, so his iceman jockey will know just what to do to have him in the first 3 in this race in its dying second. This horse is going to be quite something, bred and trained extraordinarily patiently to win Cups.