Thoroughbred racing

[spook]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

What a great day on the punt! Now for Texan to come through (all up into Classy Chloe and A Time For Julia at 30-1) in R8 at Ascot.

Mrs Onassis (Follonica the place at $6.67), CC/ATFJ, Famlous Seamus at 6.50 and Al Aneed 11.00.

indeed.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Was slow out too. Will have another look at the replay and check it out but kudos to Dunaden, can only remember Northerly winning with anywhere near that weight. I wonder if L2R2R has horsey stats as well.

Don't have them in a database. Prior to Northerly you have to go back to Ming Dynasty's second Cup in 1980 for a 58kg winner. Then it's into imperial measures and Gay Icarus in 1971.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Frankel easing to $1.30 in his farewell to racing on a muddy track. 2:05am on TVN.

 

[Leysy Days]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Haha, great wrap jack.

The CC is shaping as a great renewal. Top notch. ABout 5 classes better than last year.

Leysy can't have Lights of Heaven though folks. Think its big unders.

Leysy's going with the imports this year, they were first 7 across the line in the Cup last year & a horse that hadnt won for 3 years brained them in the Herbert Power last week & the other (Gatewood) would have won if it saw daylight.

My Quest for Peace sits on pace, has drawn well, is in form, well weighted, lightly raced & on the up. Have it in doubles everywhere at 17's. Into 12's now, though leysy will have some more of the $13.50 on betfair ATM.

Glencadam Gold ran amazing times in the Metrop as you say Diet Beer. If Pumper can get just a little piece in front it might just win easy. Dunaden rounds out the top 3 chances ILO.

One of the rare times leysy has shopped well. Already set on My Quest for Peace, Dunaden got out to $19 on betfair 10 mins before the kick. Had to check he had 4 legs before backing. Kept blinking at what the layers were offering.

But have to say, credit must be given to a line by the oracle that gave leysy the confidence to do so......

Jockey's are crucial IMO. Barriers are incidental.

Bang on brother. Bang on. Quoted for truth. Today is in the manual.

BTW did you get a peace of the tri, you had numbers all through it.

 

[jb03]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Frankel easing to $1.30 in his farewell to racing on a muddy track. 2:05am on TVN.

Geez that team riding/pacemaker crap annoys me.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Geez that team riding/pacemaker crap annoys me.

Couldn't have helped the runner-up's chances.

Anathema to our way of thinking, but then Central Park almost pinched a Melbourne Cup.

 

[jb03]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Couldn't have helped the runner-up's chances.

Anathema to our way of thinking, but then Central Park almost pinched a Melbourne Cup.

CP ran on its merits. Why does the so called best horse ever need a pacemaker or another horse to interfere with the oppoition.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

CP ran on its merits. Why does the so called best horse ever need a pacemaker or another horse to interfere with the oppoition.

I guess they sanction it because it ensures the race is truly run and suspect stayers don't pinch the big races. Plus there's a lot more emphasis on race times. Might also make it more difficult to disguise a deliberate bad ride.

I suppose they also figure the horse is running on its merits. Windsor Palace was the pacemaker in So You Think's first run over there; this year it actually won same race at 66's, beating the $1.40 stablemate.

It is what it is. They have to deal with our tight riding and comparatively hard tracks when they come here.

 

[Streak]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Jockey's are crucial IMO. Barriers are incidental.

I definately follow certain hoops, but I am a big barriers watcher myself.

Barriers and movable rails.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

One of the rare times leysy has shopped well. Already set on My Quest for Peace, Dunaden got out to $19 on betfair 10 mins before the kick. Had to check he had 4 legs before backing. Kept blinking at what the layers were offering.

But have to say, credit must be given to a line by the oracle that gave leysy the confidence to do so......

Bang on brother. Bang on. Quoted for truth. Today is in the manual.

BTW did you get a peace of the tri, you had numbers all through it.

They bet $19 about Dunaden, Leyser? Kill me. Heh heh.

I took my chances in the CC and it didn't work out. C'est la vie. I did have a moment when I watched the gap open for my man and then saw it close, open again and slam. I didn't get the chance to ask who was on the Gear. But had he not got knocked over and run second or third I was looking at my biggest ever collect. I had to roll the dice, bro.

On A Jeune again.


SCOOPer, don't lose the faith, bro. Glencadam Gold's rider was told to lead at all costs. Your rider may have been told to get wide late, and finish on. $35 now. Awesome Cup trial. $35. Value runner for mine.

Info on Melbourne Cups coming.

 

[tigersnake]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

SCOOPer, don't lose the faith, bro. Glencadam Gold's rider was told to lead at all costs. Your rider may have been told to get wide late, and finish on. $35 now. Awesome Cup trial. $35. Value runner for mine.

Info on Melbourne Cups coming.

They'd have to sack Mott you'd reckon? There were a lot of good MC trials in the CC. Overwhelming. Syndicate backed Brigantin today in the MC to beat Geelong Cup factor.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

One more comment on the barrier tip, Leyser - it's the responsibility of the youthful to pick over the of the knowledge of the elderly. One more tip - bet bolder and rarer. Wish I was old enough to listen to me own adice. ;D



Changing times.

If the ghost of Kinston Rule had run in the last half dozen Melbourne Cups he'd have won by between 50 and 120 metres. We're talking historic massacre here. And KR won it in 1990.

The Melbourne Cup has always been the longest mile and a half race in the world. But it has changed. Now it's just an honest WFA 2400m. If we had top line Japanese trained horses here they'd destroy the field.

For the first time in my memory it is conceivable that an English trained horse can win the Melbourne Cup because the race is finally soft enough. That horse is Red Cadeaux, to be ridden by Michael Rodd.

Dunaden will have the benefit of a local (talented, hungry) rider but will lose 3kg advantage from last year (after the penalty). The bigger advantage IMO is the improvement in jockey.

I really liked Winchester's run in the CC. I can't blame the jockey because I'm sure he was dead. But even so, he's not much chop. He'll want a genuine speed.

Don't make too many allowances for the softer tracks. (20 years is a long time.) Will they run 3:21 for the Cup this year? Welter times in a G1 event. The Melbourne Cup is changing but it won't be one way forever. Weights and hardness will matter again. Will it be this year?

If they run 3:17 this year get on the locally trained and the locally ridden.

 

[Rosy]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Barriers are incidental.

Why do you think that Dyer? It seems trainers think barriers can play a massive role. Plenty comment on the draw and how it affects their horses chances. They hang out for the barrier they want. Leon Macdonald mentioned the barrier as part of his decision to scratch her from the CC and has said he hopes she doesn't draw 14 again in the CP.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

I definately follow certain hoops, but I am a big barriers watcher myself.

Barriers and movable rails.

If you're winning off that you won't be easily persuaded otherwise, Streak.

Why do you think that Dyer? It seems trainers think barriers can play a massive role. Plenty comment on the draw and how it affects their horses chances. They hang out for the barrier they want. Leon Macdonald mentioned the barrier as part of his decision to scratch her from the CC and has said he hopes she doesn't draw 14 again in the CP.

He mentioned the barrier as part of his decision, Rosy. IMO in respect of the barrier he was wrong. Jakalberry lobbed one by one from barrier 13? And Nash is at least the second best rider in the land and would have done as he pleased from there.

However I think Macdonald was smart to save her for the Plate as I mentioned at the time. "Shrewd". BTW she drew 13 in the Plate.

Axiom of Racing #1324: There is no such thing as a bad barrier, only a bad jockey. Sometimes I put it that jockeys are crucial; barriers are incidental.

Bad jockeys slaughter good horses from good barriers and good jockeys do their own speed maps and plot a path from there. One of the best indicators of an emerging jockey is the ability to ride mongrels to placings or victory from bad barriers.

I backed Green Moon yesterday because I was worried that he would draw well. And Pierro would draw badly and wreck my price. Williams in white hot form is on Green Moon so the barrier doesn't matter.

Just back on Macdonald I think he wanted to scratch the horse anyway. I reckon he needed a raft of reasons so he could convince the owners. (Something was said about dinner, the owners, the big decision.)

There are many reasons to do that.

The first is that the Cox Plate is a more lucrative race. (1st $1,800,000, 2nd $440,000, 3rd $220,000, 4th $130,000, 5th $110,000, 6th $100,000, 7th $100,000, 8th $100,000.) Compare with the CC (1st $1,500,000, 2nd $375,000, 3rd $200,000, 4th $110,000, 5th $90,000, 6th $75,000, 7th $75,000, 8th $75,000.)

There are fewer runners reducing the risk of injury and making it easier to get prizemoney.

Some of us think the Cox Plate could be an easier assignment than the CC this year. The 3yos may all go bust.

And the boost to her broodmare value if she wins (or places) is much greater in the Cox Plate.

There is another reason she may have been scratched. She went like a busted arse in the Turnbull. Her run prior made her a CC star. Maybe she's not right or hasn't been. Bloods down a bit? Scratchy in the sand?

I think Macdonald might have been using a bit of load (exaggeration) when he cited the barrier as a part of the reason for the scratching. He already had a lot of better reasons if only he could convince the owners. My thinking on her scratching in from the CC is that the barrier might have been a bit of a help in getting her into a more suitable race.

 

[Coughlan24]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Ethiopia for me in the Cox Plate gents and if he went to the cup he'd go close but not sure the trainer wants him in it this year. One horse I believe is capable of winning the cup is It's a Dundeel he'll win the Derby on his ear and if i was pulling the stings i'd have a crack cause he's one serious stayer.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

They'd have to sack Mott you'd reckon?

You'd reckon, snake. Mott slaughtered him. Ran up arses. Got lost. Murder.

He'd have to possie much closer next time and if you were fair dinkum you'd give someone who can steer at the level the gig. Hughie is on Mouriyan (fancied - the excellent mail). Nash will ride Gai's. The good riders are gone. You know who I'd put on him? King. Easy call. Steven King. Hungry and flying.

There were a lot of good MC trials in the CC. Overwhelming.

If Hugh Bowman were riding Americain it would be a Christ killing certainty IMO. Mosse is not a leper. He's a topliner who has made the odd mistake and he may make amends. Maybe he thinks he's proven that he's not frightened and has gone soft. His worst is Michael Kinane all over again.

1kg was very lenient on Dunaden. Should have got three.

Lights of Heaven was sensational for two mile. A 5yo Zabeel mare. 53kg is a nasty impost. She grinds; she does not sprint. The top two grind faster and much faster respectively. If she had 51kg it would be a simple plan. You possie. (The race will be run at English Jumper's Flat tempo.) Then you go at the mile. Maybe the 1700m. You just *smile* off. You put three on them. Then you ease a fraction for 200m then you go again and you put another three on them. None of them see this coming. You let her slide at near 12 for the furlong and then you cuddle her from the 700m until the 500 and then you let her slide again. But at the tower, when you go for her, the extra 2kg will feel like 10 and she will need a very big break to hang on.

The top pair feel their burdens and the horse that is pitched in - Green Moon, if he is a genuine mile and a half horse, joins in and wins.

Australian trainers must test the imports. Must make them carry the weight. If they have a ball between them. But maybe they don't. It's a Pantene moment - it may not happen over night but it will happen. Australian trainers must put the pace back into he Melbourne Cup. Strategic thinking not tactical thinking.

Syndicate backed Brigantin today in the MC to beat Geelong Cup factor.

Here's my take on Brigantin, snake. He's the opposite of what I want to do. He's fashionable. Nup. Way too short for mine. The recent French form is disgraceful IMO, ts. Which is not always a bad thing. To run second in a 3000m track gallop in 3:17 has no bearing on racing as we know it. (Good track BTW.) The Geelong Cup is a much better guide. If he wins it by five he should be second favourite at $7. If he fails the French form is Franced.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Strange old race the Geelong Cup's become; first field of less than 11 runners since 1933. Chance it'll be run at a stop-start tempo, a bit like a 2400m WFA race, and not be such a great guide to the Melbourne Cup.

 

[Rosy]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

He mentioned the barrier as part of his decision, Rosy. IMO in respect of the barrier he was wrong.

Yep of course lots of things to weigh up. Plenty of trainers hang out hoping for a favourable barrier draw and other horses have been scratched due to not getting one. They comment about the draw and how it will likely affect their horse all the time. Some horses mightn't be affected, others can have big issues. There can be all different scenarios considered depending on how the horse races. Agree the barrier is only part of a decision but it is obviously something many trainers factor highly into individual horses chances. I'd be surprised if astute punters, those who might look beyond pretty colours, names and favourite jockeys don't take the barrier into consideration too. Odds change after barrier draws.

Anyway I was just interested in your opinion about barriers being incidental. I think sometimes that could be the case but other times they might be vital. Agree on jockeys. No doubt a good one is worth their weight in gold.

 

[Rosy]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Just read this article relation to barrier draws. Funny.

John Singleton finds no Joy in Gai Waterhouse's Cox Plate barrier tactics
by: Ray Thomas From: The Daily Telegraph October 24, 2012 12:00am


JOHN Singleton said he was gutted but Gai Waterhouse maintains she has done the right thing as the great Cox Plate barrier draw controversy threatens to put a long friendship to the test.

Singleton, owner of More Joyous, wanted an inside barrier and could not believe Waterhouse deliberately chose gate 11 for his champion mare in the $3 million Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley on Saturday.

The colourful owner and racing's first lady have been friends for 40 years with Waterhouse once describing their relationship as "tumultuous but we are very supportive and admiring of each other".

They have shared many big race wins together, most notably with More Joyous, but Singleton could not hide his feelings when he contacted The Daily Telegraph after the Cox Plate barrier draw.

"I love Gai but this is bloody madness," Singleton said. "If this was a normal race and not the Cox Plate, the horse would be scratched and the trainer sacked!


"I instructed my racing manager Duncan Grimley to tell Gai to get barrier four to six if possible.

"Gai didn't need to pick that barrier. It's absolutely ridiculous, no one in the world thinks this is a good barrier."

The Cox Plate barrier draw is different to the norm as the horse's name is drawn out first before it's connections are asked to select a barrier of their choice.

When More Joyous was the first horse drawn, Waterhouse had all 14 barriers to choose from and surprised everyone, particularly Singleton, when she selected 11.

Waterhouse defended her decision to select a wider barrier for More Joyous.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Re the effect of barriers...it all depends.

An average beginner drawn wide is always at a disadvantage. Always. If the horse is going to be snagged back anyway, a wide barrier can help to stay clear of trouble. For speed horses, the disadvantage depends on the number of good beginners drawn inside. Some particular starts disadvantage wide draws more than others, e.g. Caulfield 1800, MV 1500, most SA provincials. But a wide barrier isn't a big impediment in a sprint at Caulfield or a 1400-1600 at Sandown.

More Joyous led up in the 2010 Cox Plate but was put to the sword before the turn by So You Think, and won from barrier 10 in big fields in her Toorak & Doncaster wins, settling just behind the pace. Waterhouse's strategy is clearly to have the last shot rather than being a target up on the pace.