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Thoroughbred racing
- Thread starter DragicevicFan
- Start date
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
I wouldn't lay off, spook. No way. That's stable money on board there and with December Draw and LoH both going forward you can expect an armchair ride in the race.
BTW most of the early speed in th race will come from horses drawn widish with race jockeys aboard. Except maybe Voila Ici which will go forward as will Nolen (DD) and Cassidy (Glencadam Gold).
Glamour stayers back in the field will fly home but will it be in time? If Glencadam Gold cuts the first 1800m in around 1:55 you'd want to be handy. Otherwise you're cutting 33 for your final 600 to win. Unless one of the imbeciles goes stupid in the first five furlongs there doesn't look to be a lot of speed.
My bloke will get the cuddle, if he gets the split I'll take my chances. Time to load up. But I'll save on Leysy's fancy now coz he's white hot. :hihi
BTW Southern Speed is shorter in the Plate all in than she was in the CC.
spook said:Not if you backed it at $26 and lay it at $12.
Agree re internationals. Dunaden, Jakkalberry ($24 Betfair, off American St Leger win and 4 from 11 at the 2400), MQ4P. Awful draw for Glencadam though. Pumper will earn his cut.
I wouldn't lay off, spook. No way. That's stable money on board there and with December Draw and LoH both going forward you can expect an armchair ride in the race.
BTW most of the early speed in th race will come from horses drawn widish with race jockeys aboard. Except maybe Voila Ici which will go forward as will Nolen (DD) and Cassidy (Glencadam Gold).
Glamour stayers back in the field will fly home but will it be in time? If Glencadam Gold cuts the first 1800m in around 1:55 you'd want to be handy. Otherwise you're cutting 33 for your final 600 to win. Unless one of the imbeciles goes stupid in the first five furlongs there doesn't look to be a lot of speed.
My bloke will get the cuddle, if he gets the split I'll take my chances. Time to load up. But I'll save on Leysy's fancy now coz he's white hot. :hihi
BTW Southern Speed is shorter in the Plate all in than she was in the CC.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
It's a shrewd move, Rosy. Not that hard for her to possie in the Pate and run a drum. A broodmare with a Cox Plate placing (or win) is better off then a mare that wins a CC and places in one. Percentage play IMO. Shrewd.
rosy23 said:
It's a shrewd move, Rosy. Not that hard for her to possie in the Pate and run a drum. A broodmare with a Cox Plate placing (or win) is better off then a mare that wins a CC and places in one. Percentage play IMO. Shrewd.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
LoH is now effectively $8 fixed, spook. More money for it. I reckon she will lob on December Draw's back and the stable supporters know that for a fact.
BTW LoH kicked the living *smile* out of Southern Speed as a late 3yo.
spook said:Not if you backed it at $26 and lay it at $12.
LoH is now effectively $8 fixed, spook. More money for it. I reckon she will lob on December Draw's back and the stable supporters know that for a fact.
BTW LoH kicked the living *smile* out of Southern Speed as a late 3yo.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Nothing wrong with his form, SCOOP. In the US and in Oz. You'd be mad not to have a dip.
There's a very old story about a famous trainer who went to the US and on the flight back he dropped his briefcase and the contents leaked onto the floor. The plane arrived four hours early.
That's the usual slow on American horses. Ah, punters and their raging paranoia. They rant about American horses being juiced out of their minds and being cattletrucked by the time they get to the lucky country.
Anyway in Winchester's case it looks like the briefcase is not an issue. 40/1. I've got him in the exotics. Right in the Melbourne Cup too if he can work home into this. 40/1 is overs IMO. But we're hoping things work out for Jamie Mott.
Sadler's thoughts-
http://wwos.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8550901
Sadler's a good trainer, I reckon, SCOOP. Not the sort who'd drop a briefcase.
SCOOP said:
Nothing wrong with his form, SCOOP. In the US and in Oz. You'd be mad not to have a dip.
There's a very old story about a famous trainer who went to the US and on the flight back he dropped his briefcase and the contents leaked onto the floor. The plane arrived four hours early.
That's the usual slow on American horses. Ah, punters and their raging paranoia. They rant about American horses being juiced out of their minds and being cattletrucked by the time they get to the lucky country.
Anyway in Winchester's case it looks like the briefcase is not an issue. 40/1. I've got him in the exotics. Right in the Melbourne Cup too if he can work home into this. 40/1 is overs IMO. But we're hoping things work out for Jamie Mott.
Sadler's thoughts-
http://wwos.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=8550901
Sadler's a good trainer, I reckon, SCOOP. Not the sort who'd drop a briefcase.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Winchester has US form on grass too. And over the distance.
Has ran on both Aust starts but got back too far early. Should get the ideal run. Needs to settle midfield.
Needs to find someone to trail into the race.
Winchester has US form on grass too. And over the distance.
Has ran on both Aust starts but got back too far early. Should get the ideal run. Needs to settle midfield.
Needs to find someone to trail into the race.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
As you know, SCOOPer, turf matters. (Mott should trail Dunaden IMO.)
I developed a simple rule of punting, SCOOP, that has not let me down - the bigger the price, the bigger the bet. And if they blow I go again.
Jamie Mott might just lose his *smile* out there tomorrow. Bad luck. But Sadler will have a plan and the barrier may prove to be an advantage if your pony can go early. Or if the G1 big field random pace factor emerges. They may just go hard anyway.
But you're a voice in the wilderness on this race and your case has merit. That's when you go. Take your lumps or clean up. You've almost talked me into this chaffburner. The weakness is the jockey. Jockey's are crucial IMO. Barriers are incidental.
Remote Tiger, told me on this very thread, that he keeps an eye out for signposts. What you are noticing, SCOOP, are signposts.
Voice in the wilderness. It's time to have a go. If you fail go again. Intuition.
The trainer is a very powerful plus - a genius with geriatrics and cripples; the rider is a minus redeemed in part by the fact that the trainer chose him. (If Nash were on your horse you'd be insane not to load up - year's biggest bet.)
My tip is rough and risky. He is an 80% chance of not winning IMO. There is a fifty percent chance he will go bust due to lack of hard racing (I think he needs the break as tested by the trainer) or not be good enough. And then there is a chance that he won't get the galloping room he needs (are inside draws an advantage? Depends who's riding, mainly.)
I don't know what the jockeys are doing. Or the trainers. But I'll be taking a tip from the horses - and when they're half way up the straight and my boy gets the split I'll call out triumphantly "Who's on the Gear?" (I hope Winchester runs second. ;D) If Dunaden possies I'll have a fight.
Caulfield Cup tris for me: 17, 2, 4, 12; 15, 5, 9. 20.
And something for the bookmakers -
As you know, SCOOPer, turf matters. (Mott should trail Dunaden IMO.)
I developed a simple rule of punting, SCOOP, that has not let me down - the bigger the price, the bigger the bet. And if they blow I go again.
Jamie Mott might just lose his *smile* out there tomorrow. Bad luck. But Sadler will have a plan and the barrier may prove to be an advantage if your pony can go early. Or if the G1 big field random pace factor emerges. They may just go hard anyway.
But you're a voice in the wilderness on this race and your case has merit. That's when you go. Take your lumps or clean up. You've almost talked me into this chaffburner. The weakness is the jockey. Jockey's are crucial IMO. Barriers are incidental.
Remote Tiger, told me on this very thread, that he keeps an eye out for signposts. What you are noticing, SCOOP, are signposts.
SCOOP said:
Voice in the wilderness. It's time to have a go. If you fail go again. Intuition.
The trainer is a very powerful plus - a genius with geriatrics and cripples; the rider is a minus redeemed in part by the fact that the trainer chose him. (If Nash were on your horse you'd be insane not to load up - year's biggest bet.)
My tip is rough and risky. He is an 80% chance of not winning IMO. There is a fifty percent chance he will go bust due to lack of hard racing (I think he needs the break as tested by the trainer) or not be good enough. And then there is a chance that he won't get the galloping room he needs (are inside draws an advantage? Depends who's riding, mainly.)
I don't know what the jockeys are doing. Or the trainers. But I'll be taking a tip from the horses - and when they're half way up the straight and my boy gets the split I'll call out triumphantly "Who's on the Gear?" (I hope Winchester runs second. ;D) If Dunaden possies I'll have a fight.
Caulfield Cup tris for me: 17, 2, 4, 12; 15, 5, 9. 20.
And something for the bookmakers -
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
My final profiles for the Caulfield Cup today
CAULFIELD CUP 2400: 20/10/2012 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 5 x833 DECEMBER DRAW 23.0
MR 8 #14 x857 SNEAK A PEEK 16.0
MR 8 #16 9x30 MOUDRE 22.0
MR 8 #17 x001 FOLDING GEAR 7.5
Good luck and good punting............RT
My final profiles for the Caulfield Cup today
CAULFIELD CUP 2400: 20/10/2012 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 5 x833 DECEMBER DRAW 23.0
MR 8 #14 x857 SNEAK A PEEK 16.0
MR 8 #16 9x30 MOUDRE 22.0
MR 8 #17 x001 FOLDING GEAR 7.5
Good luck and good punting............RT
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
That's on par with anything the great orators have put forward over the past 1000 years.
Gotta go, I can run through walls after reading that. Inspired doesn't do it justice.
I may end up with a couple of socks hanging out of my pockets by 5 pm but I will go down swinging.
Dyer'ere said:As you know, SCOOPer, turf matters. (Mott should trail Dunaden IMO.)
I developed a simple rule of punting, SCOOP, that has not let me down - the bigger the price, the bigger the bet. And if they blow I go again.
Jamie Mott might just lose his sh!t out there tomorrow. Bad luck. But Sadler will have a plan and the barrier may prove to be an advantage if your pony can go early. Or if the G1 big field random pace factor emerges. They may just go hard anyway.
But you're a voice in the wilderness on this race and your case has merit. That's when you go. Take your lumps or clean up. You've almost talked me into this chaffburner. The weakness is the jockey. Jockey's are crucial IMO. Barriers are incidental.
Remote Tiger, told me on this very thread, that he keeps an eye out for signposts. What you are noticing, SCOOP, are signposts.
Voice in the wilderness. It's time to have a go. If you fail go again. Intuition.
The trainer is a very powerful plus - a genius with geriatrics and cripples; the rider is a minus redeemed in part by the fact that the trainer chose him. (If Nash were on your horse you'd be insane not to load up - year's biggest bet.)
My tip is rough and risky. He is an 80% chance of not winning IMO. There is a fifty percent chance he will go bust due to lack of hard racing (I think he needs the break as tested by the trainer) or not be good enough. And then there is a chance that he won't get the galloping room he needs (are inside draws an advantage? Depends who's riding, mainly.)
I don't know what the jockeys are doing. Or the trainers. But I'll be taking a tip from the horses - and when they're half way up the straight and my boy gets the split I'll call out triumphantly "Who's on the Gear?" (I hope Winchester runs second. ;D) If Dunaden possies I'll have a fight.
Caulfield Cup tris for me: 17, 2, 4, 12; 15, 5, 9. 20.
And something for the bookmakers -
That's on par with anything the great orators have put forward over the past 1000 years.
Gotta go, I can run through walls after reading that. Inspired doesn't do it justice.
I may end up with a couple of socks hanging out of my pockets by 5 pm but I will go down swinging.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Are the numbers (23.0, 16.9 etc) you're percentage chance, RT? Or a point system out of 130% sorta thing?
Anyways, good luck, brother.
And thank you, SCOOP. I got the banana emoticon from a speech by Marcus Aurelius. ;D
They're running Americain. 25/1 is the wrong price. Third pick for mine.
Meanwhile Gypsy's tugged my coat on Voila Ici. He's right - it must go in the tris. He thinks Sadler will be setting Winchester for the Melbourne Cup and the horse will drop out today. (Wouldn't want a penalty.) Like me, he sees no pace in the race.
Somebody's going to make a killing. This Caulfield Cup is an awesome betting affair.
I'm going to have a bob on Mister Milton and a few bob on Metallurgical. I may smash Mosheen again but I missed the $3.60 so I might just have a sook.
RemoteTiger said:
Are the numbers (23.0, 16.9 etc) you're percentage chance, RT? Or a point system out of 130% sorta thing?
Anyways, good luck, brother.
And thank you, SCOOP. I got the banana emoticon from a speech by Marcus Aurelius. ;D
They're running Americain. 25/1 is the wrong price. Third pick for mine.
Meanwhile Gypsy's tugged my coat on Voila Ici. He's right - it must go in the tris. He thinks Sadler will be setting Winchester for the Melbourne Cup and the horse will drop out today. (Wouldn't want a penalty.) Like me, he sees no pace in the race.
Somebody's going to make a killing. This Caulfield Cup is an awesome betting affair.
I'm going to have a bob on Mister Milton and a few bob on Metallurgical. I may smash Mosheen again but I missed the $3.60 so I might just have a sook.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
They are the price I need to get if I want value - its something that I discount these days as IMO any winner is a good winner.
Dyer'ere said:
They are the price I need to get if I want value - its something that I discount these days as IMO any winner is a good winner.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Like the talk scoop and dyer'ere. got a PRE trif Dunaden (I collected in the MC last year), Winchester (scoop), Alcopop (liked his run last week), and Folding gear (Dyer'ere).
Also backed Winchester 10ew and Alcopop and FG 10straight out. Also backed Mosheen 20w again after collecting last start.
Thanks from an amateur, or no-thanks as the case may be.
Also collected $40 on Excellent Point in Newcastle while hanging around at the tote earlier, so no damage done today.
also a mates boss has an interest in Sneak a Peek and reckons its gunna win FWIW blah blah
Like the talk scoop and dyer'ere. got a PRE trif Dunaden (I collected in the MC last year), Winchester (scoop), Alcopop (liked his run last week), and Folding gear (Dyer'ere).
Also backed Winchester 10ew and Alcopop and FG 10straight out. Also backed Mosheen 20w again after collecting last start.
Thanks from an amateur, or no-thanks as the case may be.
Also collected $40 on Excellent Point in Newcastle while hanging around at the tote earlier, so no damage done today.
also a mates boss has an interest in Sneak a Peek and reckons its gunna win FWIW blah blah
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Dunaden massacred 'em. Why did I jump off? What a goose. Thankfully gollywog had everything on him straight out in the syndicate.
Leap into favouritism for the Cup after that run. Another NSW horse, GG, fails. I haven't lost much staying away from Sydney glamour horses.
Dunaden massacred 'em. Why did I jump off? What a goose. Thankfully gollywog had everything on him straight out in the syndicate.
Leap into favouritism for the Cup after that run. Another NSW horse, GG, fails. I haven't lost much staying away from Sydney glamour horses.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
GC was a lay of the day special. Wide barrier in a pressure race against some world class horses. Last start lead, walked and sprinted on a leader bias track against Sydney plodders.
tigersnake said:
GC was a lay of the day special. Wide barrier in a pressure race against some world class horses. Last start lead, walked and sprinted on a leader bias track against Sydney plodders.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Yeah great ride by Williams. Bloody Winchester followed Dunaden then Jamie Mott decided like most good taxi drivers he would pick the worst possible way to go through traffic. Watch the replay. Winchester is behind Dunaden and tries to sneak through the inside while Williams goes into the clear. Has to stop change tact and then rattles home for 8th or 9th. If anyone under 56kgs with more then 4 grams of grey matter above the shoulders was in control of that horse it would have been in the places.
Jamie Mott! Under qualified to be involved in dwarf tossing.
jb03 said:
Yeah great ride by Williams. Bloody Winchester followed Dunaden then Jamie Mott decided like most good taxi drivers he would pick the worst possible way to go through traffic. Watch the replay. Winchester is behind Dunaden and tries to sneak through the inside while Williams goes into the clear. Has to stop change tact and then rattles home for 8th or 9th. If anyone under 56kgs with more then 4 grams of grey matter above the shoulders was in control of that horse it would have been in the places.
Jamie Mott! Under qualified to be involved in dwarf tossing.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
bastard might have cost me the bloody trifey!
gollywog plonked Dunaden, collected over a gorilla!
SCOOP said:
bastard might have cost me the bloody trifey!
gollywog plonked Dunaden, collected over a gorilla!
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Was slow out too. Will have another look at the replay and check it out but kudos to Dunaden, can only remember Northerly winning with anywhere near that weight. I wonder if L2R2R has horsey stats as well.
SCOOP said:
Was slow out too. Will have another look at the replay and check it out but kudos to Dunaden, can only remember Northerly winning with anywhere near that weight. I wonder if L2R2R has horsey stats as well.
