My main position on the spring features atm is that Green Moon will run favourite in the Melbourne Cup. They're betting $11 about him now and I think he will run about half that.
My thinking is based on his current form, his stable, the likelihood that if he doesn't win the Cox plate he'll put in a slashing Melbourne Cup trial - flying home, and his luxury weight of 53.5kgs.
He ran a handy second in the Feehan behind a welter horse (Happy Trails) but HT's form is ok at the mile and after that hitout GM destroyed them by five (morally) in the Turnbull. It's the way GM took a position (albeit wide - a slowly run affair) and then crushed them that impressed me.
He has the run at Death Valley under his belt and Lloyd is cooking right now. His runners get all the advantages. I was looking for $4.50 in the Plate and got $9.
My number crunching says you're better off backing him in the Plate at $4.80 than taking the $11 in the Cup. I'm interested in All Too Hard but looking for something from Hawkes. He all but declared it in the Guineas.
The Caulfield Cup is a cracker. The two Frogs up the top of the weights are class runners. Old fashoined glamour stayers. (Trifecta anchors and value.)
Folding Gear is my fancy. Can he run a mile and a half? Who cares? Southern Speed can't. Most CC winners can't. Is he good enough? That remains to be seen. But I like the way he shapes. And I've taken the Gypsy's tip that Melham is the comer this spring. (Find Melham through the spring and you will win.)
I'm prepared to overlook Southern Speed's last run. I like her at Caulfield and notwithstanding his recent bungling I think Nash is a toff at the track. There is no such thing as a bad barrier only a bad jockey. $21 is attractive.
If you like Ocean Park for the Cox Plate (or even don't despise it) you have to feature Alcopop in your trifectas. A value runner in form.
And Glencadam Gold may be a bit of a rule breaker. The rule is established and obvious - any horse that wins the Metropolitan is a mongrel. But 2:29 with a 34.8 final 600 is unusual. If he gets cover he may ping. I'll save on the tris.
Light Vision is an interesting runner. There is money for her. A 5yo Zabeel mare who destroyed a Brisbane Cup field. (Was she favourite for the CC last year?) The handicapper likes her and was cruel. WFA placed this prep when unsuited. I've got her in the chances.
I'm not a December Draw fan and I thought Gatewood was terrible last start.
The Cup? I like Green Moon atm. Will Ethiopia run? Red Cadaux was not missed by the handicapper this time. And carrying .5kg less than GM I'm less enthusiastic about Lights of Heaven. I'm coupling Green Moon Plate and Cup right now.
Good luck, punters. Let's drag home the ravaged carcase of a bookmaker and feast on the remains.