Thoroughbred racing | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Thoroughbred racing

Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

jb03 said:
So do we now take potential overs for Pierro in the Cox Plate and do we think that is simply can't win based on its run Saturday?

Take the overs. If it gets a half decent ride on Saturday it wins and is 1.80 fav.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

SCOOP said:
Take the overs. If it gets a half decent ride on Saturday it wins and is 1.80 fav.

Agree. Apparently as much as $12 got matched on Betfair yesterday when the news about Williams not riding was released.

Amazing he managed to go within a half length of still winning after the run he had. Providing he hasnt been completely flattened by the tough run, he's still the one to beat.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

jb03 said:
So do we now take potential overs for Pierro in the Cox Plate and do we think that is simply can't win based on its run Saturday?

Surprised Williams jumped off it so quickly.

Even with the run on Saturday not sure leysy will. generally not a fan of 3 year olds in the Plate.

Read today that the past 5 3 yo favs in the Plate have ll been rolled. Lonhro's generally dont stay either.

Having never ran at the trip & some query to do so on breeding/racing style leysy wont be jumping at shortish odds to find out.

Dont want to jinx by putting out a tip as on fire of late, having a monster spring, but Ocean Park should be a clear fav ILO.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Leysy Days said:
Even with the run on Saturday not sure leysy will. generally not a fan of 3 year olds in the Plate.

Read today that the past 5 3 yo favs in the Plate have ll been rolled. Lonhro's generally dont stay either.

Having never ran at the trip & some query to do so on breeding/racing style leysy wont be jumping at shortish odds to find out.

Dont want to jinx by putting out a tip as on fire of late, having a monster spring, but Ocean Park should be a clear fav ILO.

Agree with that Boozy. You gotta be a strong staying 3 year old with class to win a Cox Plate. Octagonal and So You Think prime examples. The more brilliant types find the 2040m pressure cooker too much. Bel Esprit, Redoute's Choice and Our Maizcay prime examples. All three won the Caulfield Guineas and all three ran well down the track in the Cox Plate. Octagonal and So You Think both ran in the Guineas but didn't win and came out to win the Cox Plate at the next start.

That said, this is far from a vintage Cox Plate which is probably the understatement of the year. There is a serious dearth of high quality WFA older horses at the moment. Certainly no Northerlys, Sunlines or Octagonals; the horses that beat the brilliant 3 year olds mentioned above. That Caulfield Stakes on Saturday was the worst Group 1 WFA race I have ever seen in Melbourne; it was an embarrassment. The fact that Ocean Park fell in against an 8 year old non winner like Alcopop and a B grade miler like Sincero gives me no faith in his credentials. Green Moon is just above average and More Joyous is suspect at 2040m in open company. She did win the Queen Elizabeth over 2000m at WFA in the Sydney autumn but, despite the poor ride, not sure she is going well enough and she is not as good in Melbourne.

All that takes you back to the 3 year olds. The weakness of the older horses opens it right up for the likes of Pierro this year. If he gets a cold run he will be right in it. Can he turn the tables on All Too Hard? Like Saturday whoever gets the best run is first past the post. But I think I'll be backing Gai's other 3 year old Proisir. He is the right staying type in an average Cox Plate and he just got bloused last start. Reckon he's got a bit of the So You Thinks about him.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Yeah as you say Chimpley the three year olds that win it all have one thing in common, they are tough.

Is Pierro, not sure.

Proisir has some claims, but on breeding (out of Choisir) must be some doubt to run the distance as well.

On Ocean Park, thought on face value it was an average run as well. But looking closer outside Buffering (over 1000m) it ran the quickest last 600 of the day. Couldnt finish much quicker, those small field slowly run races can be a trap & not much tends to cover them at the finish.

They'll go along in the Plate & he'll be able to sit just off them & unleash his powerful sprint.

Dont laugh, but if you want to look around the 3 year olds & the above a couple of older horses are well above the odds ILO. Like El Segundo & many others Rekindled Interest only goes at Moonee Valley. Simply flies off the camber. Disregard its form anywhere else, especially Flemington where it always fails. Was a moral rolled in the Plate last year & set for it ever since. $23 on betfair.

The other is Shoot Out, Waller has really improved this old horse, is tough as old boots, won nearly 3 mil in stakes, was beaten 3 lengths by So You Think 2 years ago in the plate which would likely be good enough to win this & is going better now. $50 on betfair.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

While Lonhro's lack of top class middle distance progeny is a concern, Pierro has plenty of stamina on his dam's side through Daylami (three G1 wins at 2400m) and Sadler's Wells (sire of three Melbourne Cup topweights etc etc). Enough to suggest he won't faint like e.g. Our Maizcay, and enough not to dismiss him on pedigree.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Don't reckon Proisir will have an issue with a distance Boozy. He didn't last start and only got bloused by a real good Kiwi. Breeding sometimes throws up anomalies. No doubt Choisir is a sprinting sire but remember the 2005 VRC Derby winner Benecio was bred to be a Slipper winner (More Than Ready - Mannington).

Rekindled Interest is the query runner. You are right he is lengths better at the Valley. I backed him in the Cox Plate last year and agree he was quite unlucky although not sure he would have beaten Pinker Pinker.

I'll definitely give him consideration along with Proisir; quinella!!
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Don't know if the link below will work or not, but it's to a show called "Inside Nature's Giants", where they do autopsies on big animals.

This episode is on the thoroughbred and it explores the anatomical and physiological aspects of the beasts. It can be a bit gruesome at times, as they actually cut up a real horse, but it's fascinating stuff. The great Phar Lap gets a starring role when they look at the heart.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsvS6gEBJuE
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]


My main position on the spring features atm is that Green Moon will run favourite in the Melbourne Cup. They're betting $11 about him now and I think he will run about half that.

My thinking is based on his current form, his stable, the likelihood that if he doesn't win the Cox plate he'll put in a slashing Melbourne Cup trial - flying home, and his luxury weight of 53.5kgs.

He ran a handy second in the Feehan behind a welter horse (Happy Trails) but HT's form is ok at the mile and after that hitout GM destroyed them by five (morally) in the Turnbull. It's the way GM took a position (albeit wide - a slowly run affair) and then crushed them that impressed me.

He has the run at Death Valley under his belt and Lloyd is cooking right now. His runners get all the advantages. I was looking for $4.50 in the Plate and got $9.

My number crunching says you're better off backing him in the Plate at $4.80 than taking the $11 in the Cup. I'm interested in All Too Hard but looking for something from Hawkes. He all but declared it in the Guineas.


The Caulfield Cup is a cracker. The two Frogs up the top of the weights are class runners. Old fashoined glamour stayers. (Trifecta anchors and value.)

Folding Gear is my fancy. Can he run a mile and a half? Who cares? Southern Speed can't. Most CC winners can't. Is he good enough? That remains to be seen. But I like the way he shapes. And I've taken the Gypsy's tip that Melham is the comer this spring. (Find Melham through the spring and you will win.)

I'm prepared to overlook Southern Speed's last run. I like her at Caulfield and notwithstanding his recent bungling I think Nash is a toff at the track. There is no such thing as a bad barrier only a bad jockey. $21 is attractive.

If you like Ocean Park for the Cox Plate (or even don't despise it) you have to feature Alcopop in your trifectas. A value runner in form.

And Glencadam Gold may be a bit of a rule breaker. The rule is established and obvious - any horse that wins the Metropolitan is a mongrel. But 2:29 with a 34.8 final 600 is unusual. If he gets cover he may ping. I'll save on the tris.

Light Vision is an interesting runner. There is money for her. A 5yo Zabeel mare who destroyed a Brisbane Cup field. (Was she favourite for the CC last year?) The handicapper likes her and was cruel. WFA placed this prep when unsuited. I've got her in the chances.

I'm not a December Draw fan and I thought Gatewood was terrible last start.


The Cup? I like Green Moon atm. Will Ethiopia run? Red Cadaux was not missed by the handicapper this time. And carrying .5kg less than GM I'm less enthusiastic about Lights of Heaven. I'm coupling Green Moon Plate and Cup right now.


Good luck, punters. Let's drag home the ravaged carcase of a bookmaker and feast on the remains.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]


Lights of Heaven $15 to $10 in the last 3 hours.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Nice. Backed LOH at $26 weeks ago.

Proisir had a track gallop with More Joyous at MV this morning. Gai super impressed with the colt. She's still confident re Pierro.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

spook said:
Nice. Backed LOH at $26 weeks ago.

Proisir had a track gallop with More Joyous at MV this morning. Gai super impressed with the colt. She's still confident re Pierro.

Proisir went around the Valley like an old pro this morning. Newitt was suitably impressed.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

DragicevicFan said:
Proisir went around the Valley like an old pro this morning. Newitt was suitably impressed.

I like it! Proisir-Rekindled Interest quinella here I come.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Dyer'ere said:
My main position on the spring features atm is that Green Moon will run favourite in the Melbourne Cup. They're betting $11 about him now and I think he will run about half that.

My thinking is based on his current form, his stable, the likelihood that if he doesn't win the Cox plate he'll put in a slashing Melbourne Cup trial - flying home, and his luxury weight of 53.5kgs.

He ran a handy second in the Feehan behind a welter horse (Happy Trails) but HT's form is ok at the mile and after that hitout GM destroyed them by five (morally) in the Turnbull. It's the way GM took a position (albeit wide - a slowly run affair) and then crushed them that impressed me.

He has the run at Death Valley under his belt and Lloyd is cooking right now. His runners get all the advantages. I was looking for $4.50 in the Plate and got $9.

My number crunching says you're better off backing him in the Plate at $4.80 than taking the $11 in the Cup. I'm interested in All Too Hard but looking for something from Hawkes. He all but declared it in the Guineas.


The Caulfield Cup is a cracker. The two Frogs up the top of the weights are class runners. Old fashoined glamour stayers. (Trifecta anchors and value.)

Folding Gear is my fancy. Can he run a mile and a half? Who cares? Southern Speed can't. Most CC winners can't. Is he good enough? That remains to be seen. But I like the way he shapes. And I've taken the Gypsy's tip that Melham is the comer this spring. (Find Melham through the spring and you will win.)

I'm prepared to overlook Southern Speed's last run. I like her at Caulfield and notwithstanding his recent bungling I think Nash is a toff at the track. There is no such thing as a bad barrier only a bad jockey. $21 is attractive.

If you like Ocean Park for the Cox Plate (or even don't despise it) you have to feature Alcopop in your trifectas. A value runner in form.

And Glencadam Gold may be a bit of a rule breaker. The rule is established and obvious - any horse that wins the Metropolitan is a mongrel. But 2:29 with a 34.8 final 600 is unusual. If he gets cover he may ping. I'll save on the tris.

Light Vision is an interesting runner. There is money for her. A 5yo Zabeel mare who destroyed a Brisbane Cup field. (Was she favourite for the CC last year?) The handicapper likes her and was cruel. WFA placed this prep when unsuited. I've got her in the chances.

I'm not a December Draw fan and I thought Gatewood was terrible last start.


The Cup? I like Green Moon atm. Will Ethiopia run? Red Cadaux was not missed by the handicapper this time. And carrying .5kg less than GM I'm less enthusiastic about Lights of Heaven. I'm coupling Green Moon Plate and Cup right now.


Good luck, punters. Let's drag home the ravaged carcase of a bookmaker and feast on the remains.

Haha, great wrap jack.

The CC is shaping as a great renewal. Top notch. ABout 5 classes better than last year.

Leysy can't have Lights of Heaven though folks. Think its big unders.

Leysy's going with the imports this year, they were first 7 across the line in the Cup last year & a horse that hadnt won for 3 years brained them in the Herbert Power last week & the other (Gatewood) would have won if it saw daylight.

My Quest for Peace sits on pace, has drawn well, is in form, well weighted, lightly raced & on the up. Have it in doubles everywhere at 17's. Into 12's now, though leysy will have some more of the $13.50 on betfair ATM.

Glencadam Gold ran amazing times in the Metrop as you say Diet Beer. If Pumper can get just a little piece in front it might just win easy. Dunaden rounds out the top 3 chances ILO.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

BTW punters, replays of the imports races can be found here -

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/p_International_Horse_Profiles12.aspx

Just click on horse & the replays of recent runs.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

Leysy Days said:
Leysy can't have Lights of Heaven though folks. Think its big unders.
Not if you backed it at $26 and lay it at $12. ;)

Agree re internationals. Dunaden, Jakkalberry ($24 Betfair, off American St Leger win and 4 from 11 at the 2400), MQ4P. Awful draw for Glencadam though. Pumper will earn his cut.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

For what it is worth - my analysis of the Caulfield Cup 2012

From the horse profiling I have defined over years, the Caulfield Cup has been very kind to me as the following shows - this year the profiling selects horses that all bar one are not in the market - and the media that I have seen are not talking about them.

Last 5 Years Caulfield Cup and Herbert Power profiling and results -

CAULFIELD CUP 2400: 15/10/2011 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 6 x670 PRECEDENCE 16.0
MR 8 # 9 2111 DECEMBER DRAW 16.0
MR 8 #14 x072 NIWOT 21.0
MR 8 #18 0424 SOUTHERN SPEED 41.0 WON 10.60 PL 3.20

CAULFIELD HERBERT POWER 2400: 08/10/2011 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 3 # 6 x006 MACEDONIAN 22.0
MR 3 #10 4105 LOPOV 19.0
MR 3 #13 x031 TANBY 3.8 2ND PL 2.20
MR 3 #14 x162 SHEWAN 13.0 WON 4.10 PL 1.90
MR 3 #15 4103 TWO FOR TEA 13.0

CAULFIELD CUP 2400: 16/10/2010 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 2 1234 METAL BENDER 13.0
MR 8 #15 0610 DESCARADO 31.0 WON 19.20 PL 5.10
CAULFIELD HERBERT POWER 2400: 09/10/2010 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 3 # 3 x113 MOUDRE 21.0 4TH
MR 3 # 5 3x33 LINTON 26.0 WON 4.40 PL 1.40
MR 3 # 7 6907 PERSIAN STAR 21.0

CAULFIELD CUP 2400: 17/10/2009 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 1 x407 VIEWED 31.0 WON 13.40 PL 4.00
MR 8 # 3 x400 C'EST LA GUERRE 31.0
MR 8 # 5 x003 FIUMICINO 51.0
CAULFIELD HERBERT POWER 2400: 10/10/2009 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 6 x866 HISSING SID 16.0 3RD PL 2.50
MR 8 # 7 x111 ALCOPOP 8.5 WON 5.00 PL 2.20
MR 8 #14 4733 LADY AVACAN 12.0

CAULFIELD CUP 2400: 18/10/2008 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 2 2446 MALDIVIAN 41.0
MR 8 # 3 8x62 MASTER O'REILLY 26.0
MR 8 # 8 x491 ALL THE GOOD 81.0 WON 51.90 PL 11.90
MR 8 #13 x402 RED RULER 15.0
MR 8 #14 x154 BOUNDLESS 51.0
MR 8 #16 x862 RIVA SAN 21.0
CAULFIELD HERBERT POWER 2400: 11/10/2008 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 3 # 2 5704 DOLPHIN JO 4.8 WON 11.30 PL 2.80
MR 3 # 4 0074 ANAMATO 12.0
MR 3 # 5 7203 ZAVITE 10.0 4TH
MR 3 # 6 1205 FAST FUTURE 8.5

CAULFIELD CUP 2400: 20/10/2007 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 2 x577 BLUE MONDAY 61.0 4TH
MR 8 # 4 7x80 RAILINGS 51.0
MR 8 #18 2131 MASTER O'REILLY 3.8 WON 5.60 PL 2.10
CAULFIELD HERBERT POWER 2400: 13/10/2007 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 5 x213 MASTER O'REILLY 4.3 WON 1.90 PL 1.10
MR 8 # 6 x053 REGGIE 41.0 3RD PL 1.80
MR 8 # 8 6848 CANCANELLE 26.0
MR 8 # 9 0x62 SOUTHERN COURAGE 7.0

Races Bet = 10
Races Won = 10
Horses Bet = 37
Return $1 Bet = $127.40
Profit = $90.40

Last weeks Herbert Power

CAULFIELD HERBERT POWER 2400: 13/10/2012 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 4 2233 SHAHWARDI 101.0 WON 13.90 PL 4.30
MR 8 # 9 5118 EXCLUDED 11.0 2ND PL 2.50
MR 8 #10 1x52 MR O'CEIRIN 21.0


The early selections for the 2012 Caulfield Cup from the profiling - before track condition and scratchings are

CAULFIELD CUP 2400: 20/10/2012 CAULFIELD (CAU)
MR 8 # 5 x833 DECEMBER DRAW 31.0
MR 8 # 7 1140 SOUTHERN SPEED 41.0
MR 8 #14 x857 SNEAK A PEEK 19.0
MR 8 #16 9x30 MOUDRE 23.0

Hope this helps with your quinellas, exactas and trifectas - please place your bets on the horse(s) you like as most times when I publish my profiling before the race the selections run great races but for some reason just get pipped.

Good Luck and Good Punting......RT
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]

RemoteTiger said:
MR 8 # 7 1140 SOUTHERN SPEED 41.0

Good Luck and Good Punting......RT

Good luck to you too Remote. I was just going to say Southern Speed for me. I like to stick with the girls (hope my memory is right in regard to that) Then thought I'd better check if Nash was on a horse I should be sticking by him with. Was surprised to see who he's riding. Go SS.
 
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]


Heh heh, Leyser. Southern Speed's out of the CC. Connections agree with you.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/southern-speed-withdrawn-from-caulfield-cup/story-fn67siys-1226499587339