Goodwood tomorrow. Looms as a cracking affair.
Black Caviar is obviously the best form line in the universe at the moment. And Crystal Lily has run second two her twice. Deserving favourite. Pinwheel is consistent and smart, but I don't like him in a G1, regardless of how weak it looks. I'm not a fan of Catapulted at the top level either. Although, like Pinwheel, he is a B Grade champion with an imposing record of 10 wins in 20 starts. However, his most disappointing runs have come against slick opposition. In the Salinger, the Stradbroke and the Oakleigh Plate. He was in the market, everytime, and well beaten... everytime. He was backed like he couldn't get beat in the Goodwood last year and he got done by a rails hugging ride on Velocitea... a smart horse, but critically, a mare. In fairness, Catapulted may still have been a little green, as he was still incredibly lightly raced at that point.
Eagle Falls and Ortensia race against the A graders. I would've thought that qualified them to be very much in the market. But strangely, Eagle Falls has eight horses shorter in the market and Ortensia is the fourth elect. Toorak Toff returns from a throat op, and adds considerable interest. Response is very slick, and a dual G1 winner who ran very well in the Newmarket. Arinos has had the typical Jolly stable failure before his grand final. He was a certainty beaten behind Starspangled Banner in the Oakleigh Plate last year, so you could make a case for him.
Very interesting affair. Ideas still percolating at this point.
