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The March to the finals- 2015.
- Thread starter Tigerfan
- Start date
Stylo said:
Fair enough
Finish 4th and win: Thry go to a home prelim final.
Lose and they get a home semi.
Ice said:
It wouldn't be a flaw if we didn't choke on an 8 point lead against freo last month
Our first 11 games -
we conceded 121 goals at an AV 11 per game
Since then - 88 from 10 games. AV 8.8
We've lost just 2 games: Freo (12 goals) and adelaide -11 goals.
A big warning sign for us is 10 goals.
We've only won two games where we've given up 11 goals (swans and Collingwood r7).
Now the bulldogs, Suns, swans, Adelaide & hawthorn have all beaten North by keeping them to 10 goals.
We've improved defensively so we need to keep the brakes on their scoring and keep them under 11 goals.
Get the handbrake on Petrie brown Nahas and Thomas.
And it has to start in the midfield
we conceded 121 goals at an AV 11 per game
Since then - 88 from 10 games. AV 8.8
We've lost just 2 games: Freo (12 goals) and adelaide -11 goals.
A big warning sign for us is 10 goals.
We've only won two games where we've given up 11 goals (swans and Collingwood r7).
Now the bulldogs, Suns, swans, Adelaide & hawthorn have all beaten North by keeping them to 10 goals.
We've improved defensively so we need to keep the brakes on their scoring and keep them under 11 goals.
Get the handbrake on Petrie brown Nahas and Thomas.
And it has to start in the midfield
Ice said:
Ain't necessarily so, Sydney are a win AND percentage ahead of us anyway.
That loss sucked though for sure, but not as bad as melb and Geel ones.
DirtyDogTiger said:
What that loss has done is create the possibility of playing Adelaide in Adelaide first week of finals.
If we hadn't have ballsed up against Freo, home final would be locked away, giving us the option of resting players this week, rather than having to win.
tigersnake said:
Personally, I was hurt deeper by the Freo loss, because we actually outplayed them. The other games we deserved to lose and were outplayed.
Also, if we had won, 4th was a realistic option - and I know the huge advantage 4th has over 5th.
Ice said:
We deserved to lose sure, but not because we were outplayed, we were slow, dumb and weak. We played like scared lettuce leaves. I saw my football barracking future flash before my eyes.
(I'd put the WC and Foots losses in the 'beaten by a better side on the day' basket).
The Freo loss was one we should have won yes. I'll take a narrow loss that is a moral victory over a top side over an insipid, consider ringing the chook manure delivery-dude never-in-the-hunt against middling to terrible sides effort anyday.
tigersnake said:
in isolation, those early crap losses were indeed poorer performances than the Freo one, so I agree there
it was the 5th versus 4th context that hurt me. we were on the cusp of a giving the Top 4 a real chance, and outplayed the top team - but we lost. I walked from that game thinking that we blew a real chance to make a GF this year.
Can't live by what ifs ..... doesn't work that way
People forget Freo had 2 set shots on goal in the last 2 minutes of that game - what if they nailed the first one, Houlis kick out would then have been irrelevant.
On balance - over a whole season, and looking at the 4 teams in the top 4, 5th is about right I think.
What I like about this year is that we are coming home strongly and are in a much better position than last year. No one expected us to repeat a 9 straight winning run again this year, but surprisingly we have done pretty well to get close to repeating that run in the back half of the year.
What if Collingwood didn't lose the game to us earlier
What if GWS didn't slow down in their last quarter
What if Port found their mojo a month or so earlier in the season
Swings and roundabouts and all that ......and one last thing, a simple question, who is not more relaxed now compared to this time last year when we were a few days out from playing Sydney?
People forget Freo had 2 set shots on goal in the last 2 minutes of that game - what if they nailed the first one, Houlis kick out would then have been irrelevant.
On balance - over a whole season, and looking at the 4 teams in the top 4, 5th is about right I think.
What I like about this year is that we are coming home strongly and are in a much better position than last year. No one expected us to repeat a 9 straight winning run again this year, but surprisingly we have done pretty well to get close to repeating that run in the back half of the year.
What if Collingwood didn't lose the game to us earlier
What if GWS didn't slow down in their last quarter
What if Port found their mojo a month or so earlier in the season
Swings and roundabouts and all that ......and one last thing, a simple question, who is not more relaxed now compared to this time last year when we were a few days out from playing Sydney?
on a different note, North rested 5 players in the last round last year: Luke McDonald, Michael Firrito, Levi Greenwood, Lindsay Thomas, Todd Goldstein
and Dal Santo was sub
effectively 6 of their preferred starting 21 were not playing
I assume they will be doing something similar this week, so we should have no excuse in locking down the home final
and Dal Santo was sub
effectively 6 of their preferred starting 21 were not playing
I assume they will be doing something similar this week, so we should have no excuse in locking down the home final
The maths say if the Dogs win by 100 points (possible), then that puts them 63 points ahead of our points for/against.
So to finish 5th (and a long shot at 4th) we'd have to beat a "rested" Kangaroos by about 11 goals or more.
I think.
So to finish 5th (and a long shot at 4th) we'd have to beat a "rested" Kangaroos by about 11 goals or more.
I think.
DirtyDogTiger said:
That is because we only kick 10 goals ourselves. For some reason we have decided to put the cue in the rack and kick nothing but points when we get to 10 goals in a ridiculous number of games this year. How we have still managed to win so many games, even after only kicking 10 goals ourselves, is testament to the efficiency of our backline.
As the GC and Collingwood games so clearly showed, if these guys kick straight it is all over.
