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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
The Blair "Which?" Project
- Thread starter Tony Braxton-Hicks
- Start date
I don't need to cover my face
I don't run because I never hide.
If you and others think Clarke ^Hartley haven't sent us back to the glory yrs of 1987 or 1992 I'm not sure what to say.
25 picks since 2017 and we will be lucky to show we have 3 100 gamers in that group.
The decision to go to your nearest challenger and hand them your 1st pick for them to land Homes is sackable.
And then to decide 1yr coming out of covid would be the best time to do a 5 in 30.
The injuries are 1 thing but we shouldve still had enough kids to not be sitting 2nd last with 1 win in 12 games. It's embarrassing.
We didn't fall off a cliff. We did a run up and Swan dived off the cliff.
Fingers crossed Toche selects kids on output & pure numbers rather then developing.
Touche gunna be picking the 18 year old kids. You better pray he finds the ones that are still developing, otherwise we will be well and truly *smile*.
It is hardly embarrassing if you see the overall plan for 2024. We went into the year having to find out about these kids one way or the other. We were always going to struggle with winning games but this sat well with us as we aimed to get a top 10 pick.
Injuries have meant an upgrade to the plan and now we will go for the top 3 or 4 pick. Do not expect to be winning many more games for the year. Will end up with 5/6 wins and maintain a ladder position 15 or worse.
The big aim for 2024 is to get it right at this year's draft
Bit hyperbolic but the gist is correct.
The club has got its drafting very wrong since 2018 and it’s put us in a world of pain. It will take years to fix the list and when it’s done and we are back in the finals race many around here will be asking where the last decade went.
Really?
Lets go back and review.
2017
17 - Higgins - Played 43 games for us, has played 111 games at 25 and missed about a year with the brain injury. Whatever people think about the guy (he dicked us IMO), the pick was solid
20 - Coleman-Jones - Only played 9 games for us. 31 in total. A miss IMO
25 - Balta - 93 games and a premiership. Massive hit
34 - Naish - 9 games - A miss
63 - Miller - 35 games and getting better and better now settled in a position - Massive hit
RD18 - Baker - 119 games - Massive, massive, massive hit
2018
20 - RCD - 11 games - Poor pick
43 - Ross - 68 games and was getting better by the week, reckon his injury came at exactly the wrong time as he would have thrived as a key midfielder IMO - hit
58 - Turner - No games - victim of covid
62 - English - Same as Turner
RD16 - Aarts - 42 games - as a rookie, at worst 42 games is a pass
2019
21 - Dow - 29 games now - I've mentioned here on my thoughts on Dow - miss
43 - Cumberland - 22 games - I reckon will also end up a miss but thats above the shoulders, ability wise was a good pick
44 - Martyn - 3 games - bad pick
46 - HRS - 39 games and now seeing his quality - hit
54 - Nyoun - 1 game - I think we lost him at the time he might have started to show his class but overall probably a poor pick
MSD 13 - Pickett - Not much more to say other than a massive win - 89 games so far
2020
40 - Ryan - Exactly the spot to pick a ruck, jury is out 18 games
51 - MRJ - Real shame when he got injured, was really starting to show what he can do - 35 games, probably already close to the average games played for that pick - hit
2021
9 - Gibcus - Cruelled by injuries, we know of his quality - hit
17 - Brown - 20 games, we'll really see his quality once he hits 50+ games - reckon he's a hit
28 - Sonsie - I'm a Sonsie fan and I reckon people miss some of the stuff he does in tight, which is why I still like him as a mid - jury out for now 18 games
29 - Banks - I want to like him but needs to start showing more - 12 games
30 - Clarke - 17 games and has shown his quality. I still have high hopes, horrible to get an ACL this year, reckon he would have started to break out on a HFF - still reckon he'll be a hit
MSD10 - Parker - Went with another over ager trying in mirror Marlion, didn't work out - Miss (like many MSD picks)
2022
49 - Smith - 1 game so far - have high hopes for this kid
55 - Green - 2 games - not sure on him, reckon he'll end up a miss
RD12 - Campbell - 11 games - great signs so far - reckon he'll be a hit
RD26 - Young - 28 games - whilst I have my reservations he can get any better, I think he's done very well for where he was picked up - another good pick
MSD 10 - Bauer - Exciting player who has shown what he can do in the VFL, unfortunate injuries, I have hopes he can make an AFL player - 4 games
2023
40 - McAuliffe - Massive wrap for this kid, already showing his ability, once he can build a tank, lookout - reckon he'll be a massive hit - 5 games
43 - Fawcett - Obviously we haven't seen much of him yet
MSD 4 - Coulthard - reckon he'll be a miss - likely to be delisted at seasons end IMO
MSD 13 - Tresize - I'm a wrap for this guy, reckon he'll step up to the AFL in the coming years 1 game so far
SSP - Lefau - Huge wrap for this guy, has been a massive hit already
So for all the huffing and puffing, what have we really blown.
We've had 1 top 10 pick, 2 between 11-20, 16 between 21-50 and the rest (16) are later draft picks, rookie picks or MSD picks.
The only 3 that really stand out are the Coleman-Jones, RCD and Dow picks around 20, the rest IMO are decent picks. You will always miss with some, and the CCJ one is probably the 1 that really hurts as that draft was very good. After the RCD and Dow picks, there aren't a huge amount of standouts, there are a few that are good and some decent players but I wouldn't say they were horrific.
Overall there's a heck of a lot of hyperbole spouted out about our drafting over the last 6-7 years that doesn't stand up to scrutiny IMO.
Great post Posh. You can make an argument that our drafting could have been better, but you can't make an argument its been bad, or 'very wrong'. 15 years of bugger-all good draft picks, full stop. RCD was a clanger, but even then, every club has a clanger around that pick, set your watch by it.
I've been of the view that our drafting has been middling to OK, but reading your post, it looks a bit better than that. Pretty solid. If one player greatly exceeds expectation, eg McAulliffe ends up a top line mid, its looking pretty good.
I've been of the view that our drafting has been middling to OK, but reading your post, it looks a bit better than that. Pretty solid. If one player greatly exceeds expectation, eg McAulliffe ends up a top line mid, its looking pretty good.
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Refreshing to see a well thought out balanced post, its usually either all or nothing on footy forums
we probably have. Whether we can pick up the new Cotch, Dusty and Jack, then win 3 flags to frank them, thats a whole nother story.
Spot on and those 3 players I reckon are once in a generation to.
Yeah I think CCJ is the bigger clanger of the 2. The RCD draft wasn't a good one. The CCJ one was.
The thing is, people claim our drafting has been crap, maybe they should go back to the time we were at the bottom and drafting our next core (2004-2011) and see how many failed draft picks we had in there. You will always have some, thats the nature of the game and every club has some fails, but I don't think our drafting has been all that bad, bearing in mind what picks we've had at our disposal.
Maybe, but we got the pick before him right and the pick after- 2 out of from 17 to 25 aint bad.
There is some gold in the 20s there, but also lots of average picks throughout the draft, from Dow at 3 down.
A few clubs had multiple top 30 picks and Brisbane is probably the only team that nailed them all- but even then you can debate Rayner's value as a No1 pick.
Agree, but we got our money back for CCJ, so I've filed him under 'neutral'. But agree with your analysis.
I enjoy draft discussions, obviously, its fun. As I've said a million times, its a numbers game. you only have to be a couple of percentage points above the mean and you're killing it, And even then, there are a lot of context, variables and subplots to consider. Its endlessley frustrating to me that some posters endlessly ignore all context and comparisons, focus on a pick that won't make it, and use that as proof that our entire recruiting operation is incompetent.
Our focus should be, and is, getting those early rolled-gold picks and nailing them to rebuild the side.
Jury still out for me on Hugo. Actually not really. I don't rate him nearly as highly as some.
Certainly wouldn't call him a hit but do admit he's improved a bit after 5 years.
Certainly wouldn't call him a hit but do admit he's improved a bit after 5 years.
you may be right but if you look at the stats less than half the players picked between 31-50 make it over 40 games. He was pick 46 and plays his 40th game tomorrow.
So if he stops now he is about average for where he was picked
https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison
Great post.
And yeah, I know the counterargument is all about the great players that were selected AFTER our picks that people thought were no-brainers, but meh - you gots to gets your quota of skinny back pocket flankers sometime, right?
In all seriousness, when you're effectively at the top of the ladder for half a decade, win 3 premierships, and look after your club culture rather than staging a permiership hero fire sale, you're not going to have a lot to work with in the draft. Your best bet is to try to capitalise on your winning ways at the time, and use your destination-club aura to attract some quality players at trade time. Which is exactly the road we went down.
Regardless, the past is in the past, we'll take our medicine and get some quality youth through the door at the end of the year.
