I dont reckon the Hawks will be looking to offload Chol until the end of 2025.IMO it’s someone else
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The Blair "Which?" Project
- Thread starter Tony Braxton-Hicks
- Start date
Cost too high for mine. Much rather invest in two young first round players, but each to their own.
Its amazing how people get caught up with draft picks without knowing who you will end up with versus a known quantity.
!!
Wow. Talk about a way to flatten a bloke’s day…It ain’t LevI
Read what I wrote before dropping a nut.
I said only keep the pick if it's higher then 6.
You can't get that wrong, even My grandmother would choose a quality kid.
But a pick after 12 etc for sure go for the kid.
Pick 15 and 30 would do it.
Lol, they will 100% NOT let him go for that. More like 6, 15 and a future first, and even that may not be enough for them. They moved heaven and earth to draft Cadman so they’ll want far too much if he asked for a trade. And I wouldn’t do it for just one unproven player
Its a bit moot at this point to be talking about what we might give up as there is a lot that can happen in the next 12 months. Arguably we could probably finish anywhere from 7th to 17th IMO and that has a massive impact on what we can do.
In the latter instant, I would expect us to try and trade up to a pick around 11-12 and trade that with our F1 and maybe a 2nd to get Cadman, and keep the top 3 pick next year to bolster our midfield.
In the former, then again we will trade up, whether we would use a F1 or current I'm not sure, but the higher the pick this year the more chance we would want to trade a F1 partly because we will want to take 1 of the best kids, but also within the back of our mind, that the Tassie concessions will start in 2025.
The option of doing this though is absolutely there, we've given ourselves a massive amount of flexibility to do what we want in next years draft. I'd even expect there to be mutliple plans in place.
Ie. is it better to get lets say Todd Marshall as a FA and keep those 1sts, or spend much of it on say Cadman. Risk / reward both ways but I think its pretty clear that we know we need to add top end (top 10) talent into our list and we are targeting the 2024 draft / trade period to do that.
GWS will not trade him for a “lower” round 1 pick like 5-8, and a future first and allow us to retain a pick 3, that’s pure fantasy imo. If it was the other way around, would you? If Tom Lynch was 19 right now for instance, would you trade him for what you’re saying? I wouldn’t under any circumstances.
And answering what spook said before, no way would I trade pick 1 for 6 & 15, no club in the AFL would do that. WCE knocked back 2 & 15? for this years first pick.
If he's out of contract and not willing to sign a new one, then they may just have little choice as long as our offer is fair. I've already provided options of both Luke Jackson and JHF that were both traded for similar points values as they were drafted for, but with lower picks being at the forefront of the deals.
They can say they paid a high price, but the price they paid isn't relevant in a sale market. Eg. Lets say you bought a house for $1.5m that was only worth $1m, how do you reckon you would go asking for $1.5m when you sell? Is not relevant.
Only giving my opinion on the matter, as are you. Understand what you’re saying but cannot see them letting him go for anything less than a Kings ransom. We will see what happens I guess, but I won’t be at all surprised if he signs a contract extension in the short term.
Cadman won't come cheap, one only has to look at recent GWS trading history to realise he'll command a hefty sum. Big year for him personally, nowhere near the level of Jackson at an equivalent age.
I don't think anyones saying he'll come cheap, any trade would need to be in the region of a points value of Pick 1 with first rounders part of that equation. GWS got similar value to their original picks for Taranto / Hopper and the Jackosn / JHF trades a year ago show that similar value for younger players is around their original draft pick for these top end guys.
BTW I have no idea if Cadman is the right move (I didn't bring the trade up), just merely commenting on value. If we have high picks (top 5) and they want those, I'd prefer a FA move for the tall forward role and take top 5 picks to the draft personally.
Points value is not a great way to assess things though, just imo. As I said above, if I had pick one, there’s absolutely no way on this planet I’m swapping it for pick 6 & 15 as was suggested, even if the points value was similar.
And fwiw, I fully agree with the last paragraph of your post. Always use a top 5 pick to draft your own talent, and if we have a second first rounder on top of it, use that too, especially next year which Matty Clarke has said is strong at the top end of the draft. Didn't overly like our trading a future first last year, but there was no other way to get the deal done.
It is immaterial what GWS want , the deal will be driven by Cadman desire to join us.
In any case, having the option to entertain such deals is a huge credit to Blair, he has effectively created a 1st round pick out of nothing
On that basis, and when comparing our draft hand, before and after trade week, we get an A+ for this trade period
Really great lateral thinking
In Blair we trust
In any case, having the option to entertain such deals is a huge credit to Blair, he has effectively created a 1st round pick out of nothing
On that basis, and when comparing our draft hand, before and after trade week, we get an A+ for this trade period
Really great lateral thinking
In Blair we trust
BTW I'm no saying that points value of a trade is a great incite, other than looking at other previous trade, thats what the value is, so its relevant as it relates to market value of their players (at the time of trade - which is why they still take some element of assumption into account - the Luke Jackson trade is a perfect example, FReo expected to play finals this year and the trade was built off that, if you use that as part of the assumption, then the trade looks like the value was around his draft positon - Pick 3 - but Freo obviously taking the risk that they will fall - their fall has been dramatic which makes the trade look super expensive now, but at the time the value was around his original draft position - which I would expect would be the cost of Cadman - though having said that, I doubt anyone would trade Pick 1 for him at the end of the year unless he has a massive breakout year).
Personally I'm probably more on the same position as you in terms of strategy, draft for best available and trade up (I'd even include F1 trading if we can get a good deal purely due to the Tassie concessions). If we do that we could have 3-4 firsts next year in a strong draft and I'd use FA to bring a forward in. I would think we could convince Todd Marshall to come, and IMO Ports current list need to win the premiership next year or IMO they will slide a little bit (they will need a short reset), and they may think that Marshall leaving could suit them, gets them a 1st as compo and they have Lord and Georgiadis for the future and Finlayson still has several years left in him. Could be a massive win for both clubs IMO.
If we could add 3-4 top end talents and Marshall I'd be stoked with 2024 and I think with our current list, gives us a really good chance at a quick bounce up the ladder.
Yep, can’t disagree with much of what you said there. Only reservation I’d have is trading another future first, Freo were hurt by that last year as were we
I’d only do it if Blair and the recruiters don’t rate the 2025 pool of potential draftees, or they think Tassie will soak up all of the best talent, as you said.