shaun hampson threads [merged]

[tigertim]

The Derrickx love just makes me chuckle, what's the bet he never plays another senior game?

Just to clarify, I have no love for Tom, I'm simply trying (using stats ) to illustrate he provides a very similar result/output to Shaun. Hard to understand?

 

[tigerlove]

The Derrickx love just makes me chuckle, what's the bet he never plays another senior game?

It's not Derrickx love, he's an ordinary footballer as is Hampson. But Hampson cost us a decent draft pick and loads more cash and a multi year contract. We'd have been no worse off just keeping Derrickx.

 

[bullus_hit]

Just to clarify, I have no love for Tom, I'm simply trying (using stats ) to illustrate he provides a very similar result/output to Shaun. Hard to understand?

Why can't we use our eyes then? Love him or hate him Hampson is a good tap ruckman and better than Derrickx.

Look, I get you like him and want to justify your opinion, but try and look objectively.

Pot, kettle, black.

 

[tigertim]

Why can't we use our eyes then? Love him or hate him Hampson is a good tap ruckman and better than Derrickx.

Pot, kettle, black.

Pot, kettle, black? Yes, exactly! We are doing the same thing, that's why I get what you're doing! But I know you don't think so but I'm trying to be rational and objective and use stats to explain.

So we should use our " eyes" and not stats to judge a players value, output etc? Ok, if you wish to do so, so be it, that's your prerogative.

 

[bullus_hit]

Pot, kettle, black? Yes, exactly! We are doing the same thing, that's why I get what you're doing! But I know you don't think so but I'm trying to be rational and objective and use stats to explain.

So we should use our " eyes" and not stats to judge a players value, output etc? Ok, if you wish to do so, so be it, that's your prerogative.

If you are trying to convince me that Derrickx is equal to Hampson as a tap ruckman then I'm afraid you're wasting your time. I mentioned in another post that X-man was marking the ball better this season, that fact alone would indicate some objectivity. You don't think he's much chop as a player, fair enough, I think he's useless as a forward but is a very handy back-up for Maric. That was my assessment at the time and I stand by that. Some feel pick 32 was overs and that is their prerogative, but by my reckoning he was the only thing available outside the first round. Some feel we should have kept Derrickx, fair enough in hindsight, but show me one person who wanted him kept on the list prior to his delisting. For all the huff & puff about Hampson being our worst recruit in history I'm yet to see anyone put their hand up and come up with a better solution for 2nd ruck dilemma. If we can do better then who would you select?

 

[tigertim]

If you are trying to convince me that Derrickx is equal to Hampson as a tap ruckman then I'm afraid you're wasting your time. I mentioned in another post that X-man was marking the ball better this season, that fact alone would indicate some objectivity. You don't think he's much chop as a player, fair enough, I think he's useless as a forward but is a very handy back-up for Maric. That was my assessment at the time and I stand by that. Some feel pick 32 was overs and that is their prerogative, but by my reckoning he was the only thing available outside the first round. Some feel we should have kept Derrickx, fair enough in hindsight, but show me one person who wanted him kept on the list prior to his delisting. For all the huff & puff about Hampson being our worst recruit in history I'm yet to see anyone put their hand up and come up with a better solution for 2nd ruck dilemma. If we can do better then who would you select?

One last try for me.

I'm trying yo tell you a few things.

1) we never should have acquired Shaun. At the time even you agreed (although you later saw value in him)

2: we paid too high a price for him at pick 28/32. An ordinary footballer. Injury prone, not a good AFL standard player. Poor mark. It wasn't the case of a young ruck unable to get his chance as he was 4th choice (eg Jacobs). Hampson was in and out of the Carlton side for 7 seasons. We knew the calibre of him but still took a punt. And his 2014 season illustrated the calibre of Shaun that we saw in seasons past. Half the season in the AFL, injuries and also time in the VFL.

3: I am told his tap work is his best ability. I am also told that it's not the number of hit outs per game that matter but the HOTA. I used stats to illustrate he averages the same hit outs per career game (17.5) and a very similar HOTA % ( for 2014 sample) with 22% for Shaun and 24% for Tom, as possibly the worst ruck in the league; Tom Derrickx. In fact across the board his stats are similar to Toms. Tom was a useless late pick in the ND, Hampson pick 28/32.

4: for someone who has similar stats to possibly the worst ruckman in the league he is getting a lot of money $250k ( against Derrickx $80k?). He is getting paid a lot of money to be in the VFL waiting to be called in as insurance for Ivan.

5: I am no fan of Tom and thought he should've been delisted but not for someone of a very similar quality.

6: now this will be a cop out answer but i don't know who else we could've got BUT at the time I advocated for a state league ruck late in the draft or in the rookie draft. It was my belief then, and now, we would've gotten the same output as what Shaun gave us. And anyway, we didn't have to take him because he was the "only" ruck available (just like you don't buy a shitbox car because it's the only car available at the time).

But I know I can't make you see it my way but I just thought I'd list my points.

 

[tigerman]

Derrickx had a a gun midfield sharking his hitouts.

Hampson and Miles only played in the same side twice.

Hampson's hota are ok and would have been a lot better if Miles played every game Hampson did.

 

[bullus_hit]

One last try for me.

I'm trying yo tell you a few things.

1) we never should have acquired Shaun. At the time even you agreed (although you later saw value in him)

2: we paid too high a price for him at pick 28/32. An ordinary footballer. Injury prone, not a good AFL standard player. Poor mark. It wasn't the case of a young ruck unable to get his chance as he was 4th choice (eg Jacobs). Hampson was in and out of the Carlton side for 7 seasons. We knew the calibre of him but still took a punt. And his 2014 season illustrated the calibre of Shaun that we saw in seasons past. Half the season in the AFL, injuries and also time in the VFL.

3: I am told his tap work is his best ability. I am also told that it's not the number of hit outs per game that matter but the HOTA. I used stats to illustrate he averages the same hit outs per career game (17.5) and a very similar HOTA % ( for 2014 sample) with 22% for Shaun and 24% for Tom, as possibly the worst ruck in the league; Tom Derrickx. In fact across the board his stats are similar to Toms. Tom was a useless late pick in the ND, Hampson pick 28/32.

4: for someone who has similar stats to possibly the worst ruckman in the league he is getting a lot of money $250k ( against Derrickx $80k?). He is getting paid a lot of money to be in the VFL waiting to be called in as insurance for Ivan.

5: I am no fan of Tom and thought he should've been delisted but not for someone of a very similar quality.

6: now this will be a cop out answer but i don't know who else we could've got BUT at the time I advocated for a state league ruck late in the draft or in the rookie draft. It was my belief then, and now, we would've gotten the same output as what Shaun gave us. And anyway, we didn't have to take him because he was the "only" ruck available (just like you don't buy a sh!tbox car because it's the only car available at the time).

But I know I can't make you see it my way but I just thought I'd list my points.

I couldn't really be bothered addressing each point because we're going around in circles but in short, Hampson when given primary ruck duties is a more effective tap ruckman than Derrickx. You keep referring to his average being the same but it isn't since Hampson began playing with Richmond, that is because he was our clear number 1 ruck.

Round 1 - 37 hit outs
Round 2 - 26 hit outs
Round 4 - 31 hit outs
Round 5 - 52 hit outs
Round 6 - 37 hit outs
Round 8 - 21 hit outs
Round 10 - 30 hit outs

Average = 33.4

This is the stat that is reflective of his current value to the side given he was cover for Maric, the 17 figure isn't relevant. Now we can argue until the cows come home about the differential in HTA but given Hampson gets his hands on the ball more often & has been ranked second behind Sandi for HTA over the past 3 seasons, we can safely conclude he is superior to Derickx as a tap ruckman. He also has a higher ceiling IMO, his best is far better than Derrickx best, and whilst his worst can be deplorable one can only hope that the passing of his father, the birth of his first baby & settling into a new role at a new club was a the heart of the issue. I've said it adnauseum that he's simply not a forward and shouldn't be persisted with, but I'm also hopeful that he can adapt his ruck work to suit his limitations. Carlton never gave him a reasonable shot at playing as a full time ruck, they probably should have given Warnock has been worse.

Most on here have written him off, that's fine, but he's with us for another 2 seasons so he deserves a bit of slack. With Stephenson gone he's pretty much all we have so for the time being he's a required player. If we get a better player in then great, I'm all for it. If it's state league talent then who? I'm all ears.

 

[tigertim]

I couldn't really be bothered addressing each point because we're going around in circles but in short, Hampson when given primary ruck duties is a more effective tap ruckman than Derrickx. You keep referring to his average being the same but it isn't since Hampson began playing with Richmond, that is because he was our clear number 1 ruck.

Round 1 - 37 hit outs
Round 2 - 26 hit outs
Round 4 - 31 hit outs
Round 5 - 52 hit outs
Round 6 - 37 hit outs
Round 8 - 21 hit outs
Round 10 - 30 hit outs

Average = 33.4

This is the stat that is reflective of his current value to the side given he was cover for Maric, the 17 figure isn't relevant. Now we can argue until the cows come home about the differential in HTA but given Hampson gets his hands on the ball more often & has been ranked second behind Sandi for HTA over the past 3 seasons, we can safely conclude he is superior to Derickx as a tap ruckman. He also has a higher ceiling IMO, his best is far better than Derrickx best, and whilst his worst can be deplorable one can only hope that the passing of his father, the birth of his first baby & settling into a new role at a new club was a the heart of the issue. I've said it adnauseum that he's simply not a forward and shouldn't be persisted with, but I'm also hopeful that he can adapt his ruck work to suit his limitations. Carlton never gave him a reasonable shot at playing as a full time ruck, they probably should have given Warnock has been worse.

Most on here have written him off, that's fine, but he's with us for another 2 seasons so he deserves a bit of slack. With Stephenson gone he's pretty much all we have so for the time being he's a required player. If we get a better player in then great, I'm all for it. If it's state league talent then who? I'm all ears.

1: why does he deserve some slack?
2 : you keep going on about him ranking 2nd to Sandilands in HOTA. Show me the stats. Not just keep repeating the line, stats. For what period? Who else was ranked 3rd, 4th etc. This line keeps getting repeated as justification but I believe it's from a very small point in time sample.
3: shaun ave 28.9 hit outs in 2014 ( not your skewed ave of 33.4) but that's irrelevent as you yourself said its not the number of hit outs it's the HOTA that matters.....
4: you put all your argument in taps but never mention his woeful marking, his poorly low number of disposals, his lack of pressure acts.
5: the excuses you and others trot out is embarrassing: he has a high profile wife, she,s older than him, he needs time to settle in at RFC, his dad died, he had a baby, he,s had eyesight trouble, he hasn't played first ruck before so he's getting used to it....you and others only make him sound soft!
5: Baulderstone, Brooksby, Robinson,.Meese, ..hell, doesn't matter who, they're going to give more than Shaun.
And below is some stats I posted earlier on Shaun:

Just checked out some pro stats data on SH.

2013: came 41st in the ave HO per game @ 11.7 (hit outs to advantage not available )
2012: came 30th in the ave HO per game @ 18.5 (HOTA not available)
2011: came 20th in the ave HO per game @ 20.6. HOTA: 15th with an ave of 6.7 a game.
2010: came 27th in the ave HO per game @ 13.8 (HOTA not available)
2009: came 11th in the ave HO per game @ 19.2 HOTA 14th with an ave of 5.3 a game.
2008: came 39th in the ave HO per game @ 8.8 HOTA 41st with an ave of 2.2 a game.

So even at 25% HOTA he got 6.7 actual HIt outs to advantage per game in 2011, 5 in 2012, 2.5 in 2013 and (woeful figures!) and 7 in 2014 (which I believe is AFL average). you really want to base your argument on HOTA?

 

[bullus_hit]

See Tim, it really becomes very tiresome arguing with you given I provided a link at the start of the season with an audio interview with Champion Data clearly stating Hampson had the second best HOTA percentage over the past 2 years, I couldn't be bothered digging it up again but it's there, personally addressed to you, and you duly acknowledged receiving it and listening to it. There was some other insightful commentary on McBean being elite below his knees if you want to chase it up.

As for skewing the figures, I was highlighting his performances as sole ruckman, relevant given he's insurance when Maric needs a rest. He may not be the best second ruck going around but he aint the worst IMO.

But seriously, you're basically accusing me of making *smile* up, which I find quite offensive to be honest. You don't like Hampson, I get it, he's your favourite whipping boy, so enjoy the whipping and let's leave it there.

 

[tigertim]

See Tim, it really becomes very tiresome arguing with you given I provided a link at the start of the season with an audio interview with Champion Data clearly stating Hampson had the second best HOTA percentage over the past 2 years, I couldn't be bothered digging it up again but it's there, personally addressed to you, and you duly acknowledged receiving it and listening to it. There was some other insightful commentary on McBean being elite below his knees if you want to chase it up.

As for skewing the figures, I was highlighting his performances as sole ruckman, relevant given he's insurance when Maric needs a rest. He may not be the best second ruck going around but he aint the worst IMO.

But seriously, you're basically accusing me of making sh!t up, which I find quite offensive to be honest. You don't like Hampson, I get it, he's your favourite whipping boy, so enjoy the whipping and let's leave it there.

Nope, not accusing of anything Bully, just asking for some concrete evidence not just a throw away line. Please don't play the victim card.

 

[bullus_hit]

Nope, not accusing of anything Bully, just asking for some concrete evidence not just a throw away line. Please don't play the victim card.

The concrete evidence is the audio I linked some time ago. If you have forgotten about it then so be it, it was acknowledged by you at the time so it's still there if you want to dig it up. It was over a 2 year period, and I believe we have already discussed the sample size.

 

[bullus_hit]

Interesting podcast and certainly confirmed what many have been observing over the past season.

Some of the more noteworthy observations-

- Liam McBean performed exceptionally well at ground level and is clearly in the elite category for a 202cm forward.
- Reece Conca has outperformed the vast majority of pick 6's in his third year and already has a healthy 80 point CD average (not including injury affected matches)
- Shaun Hampson has the second best tap to advantage stats in the league over the past two seasons, with only Sandilands ahead of him.
- Tigers have an exceptional draw and will be pressing hard for a top 4 spot
- Anthony Miles appears to be a very astute selection in the tradition of Moneyball (a reference that Champion Data cheekily like to avoid and replace with their own trademark)
- Lennon looks like another inspired Francis Jackson pick, continuing his outstanding record of first rounders.

http://richo.podbean.com/

And to quote Tigerflag2008

I found the Hampson comments most interesting, I suspect the club's use of champion data contributed to us targeting Hampson. Disappointing however that there was no analysis of Megan

 

[tigerlove]

Derrickx had a a gun midfield sharking his hitouts.

Seems unlikely considering Richmond were 3rd for clearances versus opposition for the year, Swans only 13th.

 

[tigertim]

The concrete evidence is the audio I linked some time ago. If you have forgotten about it then so be it, it was acknowledged by you at the time so it's still there if you want to dig it up. It was over a 2 year period, and I believe we have already discussed the sample size.

Yes, I know the podcast and yes we discussed it and as I recall I discussed Luffy saying how he carefully said "hit outs to advantage in a contest" which sounds like a stat within a stat. As you know HOTA stats are hard to come by since CD stopped making the public.

For 2013, in which Luffy was referring, Sandilands had 270, HO, Hampy 70. So he may have been 2nd to Sandilands in HOTA % but I found this line from an article from Carlton in Sept last year:
Warnock is also ninth in hitouts-to-advantage percentage (27.4 per cent), comfortably clear of the likes of Mumford (23.6 per cent), Pyke (25.9 per cent) and Fremantle giant Aaron Sandilands (25 per cent).

And this from last year on Dean Cox:
Cox has averaged around 70% disposal efficiency in previous seasons as well as being ranked second in 2013 for hitouts to advantage, its likely it will affect his scores heavily.

And this on Minson from last year:
Averaging 39.1 hitouts per game, Minson was just 19 hitouts (less than one per game) from breaking the all-time record set by Gary Dempsey (878 hitouts in 1982). The 28-year-old also led the league in hitouts to advantage showing he can not only get palm to ball but he is also accurate in delivery.

It'd be a lot easy to quantify if CD made HOTA data public ally available! But personally I dont think this is worth getting to hung up on. If you do what about also using "hit outs sharked" stats ie HO that go to the opposition.

 

[tigerman]

Seems unlikely considering Richmond were 3rd for clearances versus opposition for the year, Swans only 13th.

So who gets the credit our rucks, or midfielders?

Perhaps Dimma should get some credit.

 

[tigerlove]

So who gets the credit our rucks, or midfielders?

Perhaps Dimma should get some credit.

I don't know but your claim it appears was that Derrickx good tap to advantage percentage was due Swans having great midfield sharkers yet they were only 13th versus opposition for clearances this year. Again no fan of Derrickx, just no fan of Hampson either, particular at what we paid for him.

 

[tigertim]

Just had a look at his stats for this season. Came 9th in ave HO (318 at an ave of 28.9) which is great but had just:

26 kicks for the season at an ave of 2.4 (worst of the top 19 rucks)
a total of 96 disposals at an ave of 8.4 ( 16th of the top 19 rucks)
took a total of 20 marks at an ave of 1.8 (15th of the top 19 rucks)
kicked 1 goal for an ave of 0.1 (15th of the top 19 rucks)
11 tackles for an ave of 1 (19th of the top 19 rucks)

So overall pretty unimpressive figures for 2014. Let's hope they improve in 2015!

 

[bullus_hit]

Yes, I know the podcast and yes we discussed it and as I recall I discussed Luffy saying how he carefully said "hit outs to advantage in a contest" which sounds like a stat within a stat. As you know HOTA stats are hard to come by since CD stopped making the public.

For 2013, in which Luffy was referring, Sandilands had 270, HO, Hampy 70. So he may have been 2nd to Sandilands in HOTA % but I found this line from an article from Carlton in Sept last year:
Warnock is also ninth in hitouts-to-advantage percentage (27.4 per cent), comfortably clear of the likes of Mumford (23.6 per cent), Pyke (25.9 per cent) and Fremantle giant Aaron Sandilands (25 per cent).

And this from last year on Dean Cox:
Cox has averaged around 70% disposal efficiency in previous seasons as well as being ranked second in 2013 for hitouts to advantage, its likely it will affect his scores heavily.

And this on Minson from last year:
Averaging 39.1 hitouts per game, Minson was just 19 hitouts (less than one per game) from breaking the all-time record set by Gary Dempsey (878 hitouts in 1982). The 28-year-old also led the league in hitouts to advantage showing he can not only get palm to ball but he is also accurate in delivery.

It'd be a lot easy to quantify if CD made HOTA data public ally available! But personally I dont think this is worth getting to hung up on. If you do what about also using "hit outs sharked" stats ie HO that go to the opposition.

It was taken over a two period, I don't think it was a stat within a stat, both years have been combined & yes, it is a % and not raw figures.

Just had a look at his stats for this season. Came 9th in ave HO (318 at an ave of 28.9) which is great but had just:

26 kicks for the season at an ave of 2.4 (worst of the top 19 rucks)
a total of 96 disposals at an ave of 8.4 ( 16th of the top 19 rucks)
took a total of 20 marks at an ave of 1.8 (15th of the top 19 rucks)
kicked 1 goal for an ave of 0.1 (15th of the top 19 rucks)
11 tackles for an ave of 1 (19th of the top 19 rucks)

So overall pretty unimpressive figures for 2014. Let's hope they improve in 2015!

Not great but they were much better at the start of the year, Hampson's form dropped away significantly as the season wore on, culminating in being dropped & subbed out twice.

As a benchmark or pass mark I think these games were acceptable -

vs Gold Coast
13 Disposals, 3 marks, 2 tackles, 37 hit outs
Champion Data points = 107
(listed 5th best AFL website)

vs Carlton
14 Disposals, 2 marks, 3 tackles, 26 hit outs
Champion Data points = 107


vs Brisbane
8 disposals, 0 marks, 1 tackle, 52 hit outs (also had 2 goal assists)
Champion Data points = 127

vs Geelong
9 disposals, 1 mark, 0 tackles, 37 hit outs
Champion Data points = 98
(listed 2nd best in AFL website)

vs GWS
10 disposals, 4 marks, 1 tackle, 30 hit outs (1 goal assist)
Champion Data points = 86
(listed 2nd best AFL website)


As for the kicking, not too fussed if he keeps that to a minimum because it's clearly not a strength, adopt the Sandi approach and dish it off when the opportunity arises. As in the GWS & Brisbane games, if he gets 10+ HOTA, that's effectively 10 contested possessions, something which is clearly his strength.

He will never be a superstar but as a back-up for Maric he needs to maintain a form line similar to the above matches, if he doesn't then it's back to the drawing board in our quest to find a decent second ruckman. I'm not sure why his form tailed off so significantly but I'm hopeful he can turn things around, fortunately he still has time on his hands.

 

[spook]

Seems unlikely considering Richmond were 3rd for clearances versus opposition for the year, Swans only 13th.

That's because they were roving to a dud like Derickx, while our mids were getting silver service from one of the best tap rucks in the game.