Russia Invades Ukraine

[mrposhman]

This is going to hurt Putin. Pretty much screws his economy completely. Russia's foreign reserves will be frozen, no one will trade the ruble, the oligarch's will have their assets frozen.

It might come down to whether he gets assassinated before or after he launches a nuke. China won't help. They would much prefer not to have madman with nukes as a neighbour. I guess Cuba, Iran and Myanmar can loan Putin some money.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497707464548093959

Its actually resulting in a worsening situation for him vs NATO also.

More NATO troops will be permanently based in countries that border Russia going forwards.
There has also been growing sentiment in Ukraine since the annexure of Crimea whereby there has been a massive swing in the proportion of Ukrainians that want to enter NATO. This will only increase after this invasion.

This whole situation may well leave Russia in a seemingly worse position against the West and NATO which again questions whether that purpose of this attack was actually the truth or more lies and deception from Putin.

 

[TigerForce]

Where's Covid when you need it? Attack Putin!

 

[MD Jazz]

Sure it should be the choice of Ukrainians to decide. What’s your point?

You indicated they chose poorly. As it has resulted in their destruction. Does that mean law doesn't matter? Only power?

I thought you endorsed letting the law decide disputes, not force, yet you appear to be condoning the powerful using that power even when unlawful.

 

[eZyT]

Quick question: for all those who wish to play the blame game, ignore context etc - what is your solution?

1. find Putin, revoke his right to exist on our planet.
2. revoke every other *smile* political and business and religious leaders and who puts their power and wealth above all else, right to exist on the planet
3. those of us left, dont shaft anyone else
4. if you cant follow 3., go to 2.
5. pull the plug on the internet
6. if it cant run off hydro, wind, solar, 100% renewables, it doesnt run.
7. pay useful people; nurses, doctors, teacher, garbos, carpenters, farmers, mechanics - basically anyone who couldn't work from home - 10 times as much as useless people; real estate agents, stock brokers, bankers, instagram influencers - basically anyone who could work from home, the same wage, globally.
8. put every bar of gold, diamond, dollar, bitcoin and deed to every piece of real estate on the planet in a big pile, and split it 6 billion ways
9. put all space program dollars, into earth program dollars; all military dollars, into social dollars
10. allow one publicly owned global media company only and mandate they run Dustin Martin highlight reels and stories day and night and make Steve Hocking raise the 2022 premiership flag at punt rd.

thats off the top of my head.

 

[MD Jazz]

The geopolitical landscape is in an interesting place ATM. There needs to be a balance of power and mutual respect in order to have peace. The globalists have miscalculated the situation and unfortunately Ukraine is paying the price.

A balance of power between dictatorships and democracies?

 

[eZyT]

This is going to hurt Putin. Pretty much screws his economy completely. Russia's foreign reserves will be frozen, no one will trade the ruble, the oligarch's will have their assets frozen.

It might come down to whether he gets assassinated before or after he launches a nuke. China won't help. They would much prefer not to have madman with nukes as a neighbour. I guess Cuba, Iran and Myanmar can loan Putin some money.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1497707464548093959

your putting a lot of faith in western rich and powerful.

they already qualify sanctions as some banks, some commodities, some.

I agree it will hurt, and end badly,

but if you want to leave justice to The Market,

well, you'll have a pretty unjust outcome

 

[Harry]

A balance of power between dictatorships and democracies?

Power doesn't care for democracies and right or wrong.

 

[TigerForce]

Good to see China abstained in the UN Security council voting to help Putin.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

After watching more news, this all becomes a bit counterproductive for Putin. One of his demands was that NATO troop numbers and equipment must be reduced in Eastern Europe. Now he attacked Ukraine, these other nations on the fringe will be so paranoid it will lead to a massive buildup in the likes of Poland, Estonia etc.

*smile* dumb, dumb, dumb idiot!

I originally thought highly unlikely the prospect of open war involving NATO. But have reassessed that over today.

The Ukrainians are showing much more resolve than I thought. And I’m doubting Russia has the overwhelming power it thought it had. Bare in mind that Russia is not the Soviet Union. Put into context, it has a GDP less than Canada and only slightly larger than Australia. Even if the Russians capture and hold chunks of Ukraine. It’s a big country (roughly the size of NSW) with plenty of land for the resistance to pull back to. Russia doesn’t have the resources to hold it all. Particularly if the Ukrainians pulled west and seek refuge in the likes of Poland. Even staging some of their operations from over the border. And the longer that situation drags on, the more likely a NATO nation gets hit and that build up of NATO assets and troops moves into action. This could end up on a knife’s edge my friends.

 

[DavidSSS]

1. find Putin, revoke his right to exist on our planet.
2. revoke every other *smile* political and business and religious leaders and who puts their power and wealth above all else, right to exist on the planet
3. those of us left, dont shaft anyone else
4. if you cant follow 3., go to 2.
5. pull the plug on the internet
6. if it cant run off hydro, wind, solar, 100% renewables, it doesnt run.
7. pay useful people; nurses, doctors, teacher, garbos, carpenters, farmers, mechanics - basically anyone who couldn't work from home - 10 times as much as useless people; real estate agents, stock brokers, bankers, instagram influencers - basically anyone who could work from home, the same wage, globally.
8. put every bar of gold, diamond, dollar, bitcoin and deed to every piece of real estate on the planet in a big pile, and split it 6 billion ways
9. put all space program dollars, into earth program dollars; all military dollars, into social dollars
10. allow one publicly owned global media company only and mandate they run Dustin Martin highlight reels and stories day and night and make Steve Hocking raise the 2022 premiership flag at punt rd.

thats off the top of my head.

Sounds good to me, but we are nowhere near this sort of thing at the moment and the politics of power relations are a reality we have to deal with.

The thing is, if you don't want a conflict, don't encourage one.

What really gets me is that all these western leaders rave on about how Putin is some sort of lunatic with nukes.

So, who thought it was a good idea to provoke the lunatic with nukes?

What you do is to try and hem them in, limit their actions, not provoke them. Bloody stupid.

Meanwhile Ukraine is the meat in the sandwich. I reckon Ukraine would very much like to join NATO, but I suspect it was Germany and France who had a problem with this as they actually live in the neighbourhood and they don't want to provoke the local bully. You don't beat the local bully by provoking them, you do it by starving them of opportunities to bully others. You push, you pull back a bit, bide your time, then push a bit more, all the while limiting their actions. You don't push the weak kid towards them with an implicit challenge to their interests. Yep, it remains the bully's fault if a fight breaks out, but the crowd who pushed the weak kid into the situation shares a fair chunk of the blame.

This could have been avoided.

DS

 

[Baloo]

The Ukrainians are showing much more resolve than I thought. And I’m doubting Russia has the overwhelming power it thought it had. Bare in mind that Russia is not the Soviet Union. Put into context, it has a GDP less than Canada and only slightly larger than Australia. Even if the Russians capture and hold chunks of Ukraine. It’s a big country (roughly the size of NSW) with plenty of land for the resistance to pull back to. Russia doesn’t have the resources to hold it all. Particularly if the Ukrainians pulled west and seek refuge in the likes of Poland. Even staging some of their operations from over the border. And the longer that situation drags on, the more likely a NATO nation gets hit and that build up of NATO assets and troops moves into action. This could end up in a knife’s edge my friends.

There was a report that said Russia is using 70% of it's military in this invasion. That's a fair chunk. US should sail across the Bering Strait just to have some fun with ol' Vladdy Boy.

It's hard to know what's real but there seems to be issues with the whole supply chain for the Russians. Fuel shortages, ammunition. You'd have to assume food and water too. There are protests in Russia opposing the war. He's tried to shutdown social media sites but that's not working and the general population in Russia are getting a real picture of what's happening in Ukraine and they aren't happy.

The real fear is Putin will do something really stupid with a show of force just to declare himself a winner. Hopefully someone close enough can control him, shoot him, or feed him the same poison he's been trying to kill all his dissenters with all over the world.

but if you want to leave justice to The Market,

well, you'll have a pretty unjust outcome

It's not the market, it's the governments. Given the choice of screwing Putin with unheard of before financial sanctions, or being compelled to engage in the war with Russia, I reckon all Western Leaders will give the financial sanctions are real attempt.

 

[eZyT]

Sounds good to me, but we are nowhere near this sort of thing at the moment and the politics of power relations are a reality we have to deal with.

The thing is, if you don't want a conflict, don't encourage one.

What really gets me is that all these western leaders rave on about how Putin is some sort of lunatic with nukes.

So, who thought it was a good idea to provoke the lunatic with nukes?

What you do is to try and hem them in, limit their actions, not provoke them. Bloody stupid.

Meanwhile Ukraine is the meat in the sandwich. I reckon Ukraine would very much like to join NATO, but I suspect it was Germany and France who had a problem with this as they actually live in the neighbourhood and they don't want to provoke the local bully. You don't beat the local bully by provoking them, you do it by starving them of opportunities to bully others. You push, you pull back a bit, bide your time, then push a bit more, all the while limiting their actions. You don't push the weak kid towards them with an implicit challenge to their interests. Yep, it remains the bully's fault if a fight breaks out, but the crowd who pushed the weak kid into the situation shares a fair chunk of the blame.

This could have been avoided.

DS

but if you've ever had a psychopath in your orbit,

you'll know

1. rationality simply doesnt apply, and

2. you cant win. if you think you've won/appeased them/negotiated an outcome, things change, and you or someone else a bit normal loses.

the problem I think is every country, corporation and committee on this earth,

is run by psychos.

in summary, Im giving in to my nihilistic side, and drinking margaritas and watching Dustin Martin highlights.

 

[Baloo]

This could have been avoided.

Yeah, I can just see Putin being the sort of bloke committing to World Peace and harmony if he didn't feel threatened. If you ignore the murders of his political opponents and reporters who made an effort to expose what Putin was doing, Vlad seems like a nice friendly bloke.

 

[eZyT]

It's not the market, it's the governments.

yeah but all modern western democracies, are market led.

capitalism failed the planet and the people.

Vlad is just grabbing a few handfuls of party sausage rolls, before the lights go out

 

[spook]

in summary, Im giving in to my nihilistic side, and drinking margaritas and watching Dustin Martin highlights.

Put one of the heroin ones in the fridge for me.

 

[Carter]

Think the US is playing this wisely, leading a sanction-based press but otherwise standing in line with allies.

It is in the Pacific theatre that things will come to a head in a few years and that is a domain the US can confidently control.

Russia is a backwater and probably always was, even at the height of the Cold War.

And the US, for all its supposed decline, is still the richest country in the world and the only nation that controls two critical seaboards.

As long as Putin cannot access nuclear missiles with a presidential key, the geopolitical order need not be disrupted anytime soon.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

There was a report that said Russia is using 70% of it's military in this invasion. That's a fair chunk. US should sail across the Bering Strait just to have some fun with ol' Vladdy Boy.

It's hard to know what's real but there seems to be issues with the whole supply chain for the Russians. Fuel shortages, ammunition. You'd have to assume food and water too. There are protests in Russia opposing the war. He's tried to shutdown social media sites but that's not working and the general population in Russia are getting a real picture of what's happening in Ukraine and they aren't happy.

The real fear is Putin will do something really stupid with a show of force just to declare himself a winner. Hopefully someone close enough can control him, shoot him, or feed him the same poison he's been trying to kill all his dissenters with all over the world.

Yep, I would think 70% would be about right. They are nowhere near as powerful as perceptions suggest. This is not the red army. And as I’ve suggested in earlier posts, there is a healthy scepticism and contempt within sections of Russian society towards the military and general militarism (which ties in with the unpopularity of the conflict within Russia).

Yes they have a nuclear arsenal and large amounts of obsolete equipment and military formations as a legacy of the Soviet era. But then Western Europe has several nations with GDPs as large or considerably larger than Russia in their own right. Plus two Western European nations have nuclear deterrents of their own. No way should Russia hold so much sway and aura.

I’m thinking Vlad has overplayed his hand here and is being found out. But as you suggest, I doubt he is one to backdown and admit this and seems to be brash enough to do something stupidly horrendous to make a point. Either that or he leaves the Kremlin in a body bag when cooler heads see what he has got them into. I fear these are the two alternate paths. Hence my comment this could end up on a knife’s edge.

 

[Giardiasis]

You indicated they chose poorly. As it has resulted in their destruction. Does that mean law doesn't matter? Only power?

I thought you endorsed letting the law decide disputes, not force, yet you appear to be condoning the powerful using that power even when unlawful.

Yep only power matters.

I am in favour of letting the law decide disputes. I am in no way condoning Russia’s actions.

 

[DavidSSS]

but if you've ever had a psychopath in your orbit,

you'll know

1. rationality simply doesnt apply, and

2. you cant win. if you think you've won/appeased them/negotiated an outcome, things change, and you or someone else a bit normal loses.

the problem I think is every country, corporation and committee on this earth,

is run by psychos.

in summary, Im giving in to my nihilistic side, and drinking margaritas and watching Dustin Martin highlights.

I wasn't arguing for rationality, I was arguing to hem Russia in and restrict their options. I thought the Minsk Accords were a decent compromise. Leave that in place for a while and then test the water.

I’m thinking Vlad has overplayed his hand here and is being found out. But as you suggest, I doubt he is one to backdown and admit this and seems to be brash enough to do something stupidly horrendous to make a point. Either that or he leaves the Kremlin in a body bag when cooler heads see what he has got them into. I fear these are the two alternate paths. Hence my comment this could end up on a knife’s edge.

Which is why I said much earlier in this, or maybe another, thread that I couldn't see how a full invasion of Ukraine would serve Russia or Putin's interests. Makes you wonder what pushed him to go this far. I thought after he recognised the breakaway republics he would likely just occupy that part of Ukraine.

Just as an aside, claiming he is some sort of psychopath to explain the full invasion is a cop out. Putin has shown himself to be an astute political operator for many years. He must see some benefit beyond the cost of invasion, or he sees a threat which justifies the cost. Putin is many things, stupid is not one of them.

DS

 

[Giardiasis]

I wasn't arguing for rationality, I was arguing to hem Russia in and restrict their options. I thought the Minsk Accords were a decent compromise. Leave that in place for a while and then test the water.



Which is why I said much earlier in this, or maybe another, thread that I couldn't see how a full invasion of Ukraine would serve Russia or Putin's interests. Makes you wonder what pushed him to go this far. I thought after he recognised the breakaway republics he would likely just occupy that part of Ukraine.

Just as an aside, claiming he is some sort of psychopath to explain the full invasion is a cop out. Putin has shown himself to be an astute political operator for many years. He must see some benefit beyond the cost of invasion, or he sees a threat which justifies the cost. Putin is many things, stupid is not one of them.

DS

The breakaway republics have been at war for over 7 years, just occupying them wouldn't do anything for peace. If Russia wants to stop the fighting it has to end the Ukrainian military. I agree they won't look to occupy the Ukraine, that would be a major blunder. They will want peace on condition of agreements of Ukrainian de-militarisation, Ukraine to end claims to Crimea and the Donbas and for NATO membership aspirations to be squashed. If the war drags out because of continued support from the west we really will be in a very dangerous position indeed.