From top to bottom: Why Melbourne, Richmond and Carlton are the clubs to watch in 2022
By Jake Niall - March 14, 2022
“We want to create a dynasty. This is just the start” - Max Gawn to The Age on grand final evening, 2021.
One of the major differences between Melbourne and the majority of their rivals is that the Demons know what they’re capable of achieving. This is not a team prone to false modesty.
The Age's chief footy writer gives his take on who will win the flag, who will take home the Brownlow and the teams on the rise and slide in 2022.
Gawn made his comment about a dynasty barely an hour after the Demons had dismembered the Bulldogs in the second half of the grand final. He was being candid and matter-of-fact, rather than boastful.
And the Demons are right to be confident about what lies ahead and to view themselves as team of destiny.
They appear, at this stage, to hold a clear edge over the competition in terms of personnel. They’re starting further ahead than Richmond was before 2019 and 2020; unlike the Tigers, their supremacy is founded on talent first, then system. Richmond was the reverse.
Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin and captain Max Gawn lift premiership cup last year.
Melbourne’s prospects of repeating their 2021 heroics, this time before the fans who were in exile last September, will hinge on injury and attitude.
It’s possible that they’ll get a raft of injuries, or that they’ll be undone by hubris, but the former is more likely than the latter. Their defensive method is exceptional, and whatever personal travails and internal scrutiny Simon Goodwin endured prior to 2021, the players were – and remain – firmly in his corner.
So, who poses the major challenge to Melbourne, besides the Demons themselves?
Many would say the Western Bulldogs, purely on talent.
Certainly, Beveridge’s boys have a stacked midfield – headed by Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae and ascending Bailey Smith – but the Dogs aren’t as defensively adept as some others, as the grand final demonstrated; there isn’t a Jacob Weitering, May or Alex Rance in their back six.
The Brisbane Lions strike me as the next team best equipped to make the grand final, given their spread of talent.
Harris Andrews is a gun key back who should be fit again (he wasn’t in the finals), Lachie Neale heads a very respectable midfield (albeit one short of Melbourne and the Dogs) and they’ve got forward weapons: Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey and the left-footed talls, Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood. Had Hipwood not succumbed to a knee injury (which will keep him out till mid-season), the Lions might well have played off v Melbourne.
But if the Lions are prospective challengers, they aren’t one of the teams we will fixate upon.
The most intriguing teams, besides the 2021 premiers, are Victorian rivals Richmond and Carlton, who will meet on Thursday before 80,000 or so.
Richmond and Carlton represent riddles of a different hue. For the Tigers, the question is whether they’ve got one more crack at a premiership, before time’s winged chariot hurries past.
I think they can return to the top four. A slowing Jack Riewoldt is still a force. New co-captain Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlastuin are superb defenders and Noah Balta can fill a post at either end. Tom Lynch is in his prime.
Dustin Martin will be key to Richmond’s hopes of returning to final.
And they’re a vastly improved team with Dustin Martin, a transformational footballer whose absence sank them late in 2021. Dion Prestia will be crucial in a midfield that isn’t top-four calibre.
Carlton doesn’t shape as a flag threat. But the Blues should be on the rise, using 2022 as the launching pad – base camp – for an assault on the summit subsequently.
While the Blues have holes and several overpaid players who can’t be trusted, they have what half the competition don’t own: genuine guns in the right positions. Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps and potentially recruit Adam Cerra in the midfield, Weitering in defence and Harry McKay and maybe a revived Charlie Curnow in attack.
New midfield pairing Patrick Cripps (right) and Adam Cerra.
Michael Voss’s challenge is to extract more from under-performers Mitch McGovern, Jack Martin and Zac Williams, who’s reverting to his proper role as high half-back.
Assuming reasonable injuries, the Blues should occupy a lower eight spot.
The Bulldogs are top four for talent and ought to return to that station, but will need to defend better when it counts.
Greater Western Sydney believe they can win it all. They’re a seasoned team, with players in the right age groups and enough talent to push the top four. The query is their forward set-up, sans the incomparable Toby Greene for the first five matches.
Geelong, predicted to fall almost every year under Chris Scott, are approaching the cliff face, but I can’t see a free-fall yet. Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron, coupled with Paddy Dangerfield in the middle and Tom Stewart behind the ball, are sufficient to keep them up there.
Who grabs the last finals spot? The captains and oddsmakers would say Port, but I prefer the Swans, who would be near contention if they’d retained Jordan Dawson and Aliir Aliir and have emerging talent, plus Buddy Franklin, Isaac Heeney and Luke Parker.
Port was routed by the Dogs in the preliminary final and while they’re talented, the suspicion is that they’ve missed their window as Travis Boak and Robbie Gray hit their mid 30s.
Fremantle and Essendon are capable of finals. Both have impressive cultural foundations and have shown patience. Neither, however, has quite enough players for the top four, or probably top six.
St Kilda are caught in the twilight zone between contention and rebuilding. The Saints are a club that needs young talent to flourish, since they won’t be in the premiership race. Jack Steele and Max King are standouts, others must raise their games, while Brett Ratten will find his third year harder for dealing with external noise.
West Coast have the age profile of a finalist, but appear to be declining. Too many of their top players have been hurt – eg Luke Shuey, Elliot Yeo and now Oscar Allen and Dom Sheed – and they don’t have sufficient youthful talent.
That leaves five clubs who are firmly in rebuild mode or on a youth track: Hawthorn, Collingwood, Adelaide, Gold Coast and North Melbourne. Sam Mitchell and Craig McRae will bring new game styles, likely to be less dour than Alastair Clarkson and Nathan Buckley’s last versions, but they – and the Crows, Suns and Roos – are focused on 2024 and beyond.
The other wildcard of 2022, on the field, is the microbe who changed the game dramatically in 2020 and 2021 and whom everyone hopes leaves the scene: COVID-19.
The AFL insists that virus won’t stop games – teams will play with top-ups if necessary – but COVID can still undo any team for a given game.
