craig said:
So many varaibles and connotations spose we can count on this at least we will gain a very good player this year who will join the 22.
We will get a good one Craig, no matter what happens I think we'll land a good core footballer.
Here's my thoughts on the candidates that you've listed.
Brodie Grundy - I've ranked Grundy at the top of my list because as the old adage goes, if all things are considered even, always pick the bigman. Rucks may fit into there own category but the hit rate with top ten rucks has been pretty solid of late, and the smooth moving athletic beasts almost always emerge somewhere in the top ten.
The particularly impressive thing with Grundy has been the rate of improvement from last year. This may go largely unnoticed by some, given he was an All- Australian last year, but he seems to be adding a few more strings to his bow that weren't so obvious last year. His work below the knees is improving at a rate of knots and in the process, some comparisons with Dean Cox have begun to emerge. He moves like a midfielder and would be seen as an additional playmaker once the ball hits the turf.
His marking has also made some important strides, and although I wouldn't consider it a standout feature at present, I predict he'll become a dangerous resting forward with a few seasons under his belt. I've mentioned that he reminds me of a young Kurt Tippett and the reasons for this stem from his excellent aerial awareness and his ability to use his height to gain advantage in a contested marking situation. The overall consistency isn't quite there yet, but given he's new to the game and his learning curve has been noticeably steep, I'm predicting big things from him as he learns to ply his trade in the forward line.
At worst, I can see Grundy becoming an excellent tap ruckman who adds a significant dimension to the midfield with his running ability and quick reflexes. At best I can see him developing into an equally dangerous forward who is a formidable contested mark and someone who can score from outside 50. This will take time however, and this facet of his game should be seen as a work in progress.
Given our threadbare ruck stocks, the case for Grundy grows even stronger, he's already 100kg and will be ready to play at some stage next year. If we overlook him with pick 9, we will have our work cut out in trying to find suitable replacements for Graham and Browne.
Jackson Macrae - He's a diifferent breed to some of the other onballers vying for a top ten spot because he's not necessarily a tough inside extracter in the mould of Wines, Viney and Vlastuin. Where he does excel is in his ability to rack up big possession tallies and use the ball in a calm and methodical manner. He's the type of player who gives the impression of having that extra time to dispose of the ball and is generally clean with both his kicking and handballing.
Unlike Vlastuin, Macrae rarely amasses less than 20 possessions a game. Out of a possible 15 appearances for Oakleigh Charges, he achieved the feat on 14 occasions and was named in the best on 7 occasions. Jackson is also a noted goal kicker having hit the scoreboard on 9 seperate occasions for a season total of 15 goals.
Any player that performs well on a big occasion like the TAC grand final is sure to attract some welcome attention and Macrae's matchwinning performance would have had many recruiters sitting up and taking notice. His 26 touches also included a game clinching point in the dying seconds of the game, and far from being a routine shot on goal, Macrae was tucked deep in the pocket and only narrowly missed what would have been a terrific goal. This came off the back of a stellar 3 goal display the week before in which he chalked up 30 touches and was deemed BOG. His form at the national championships was also impressive and he was particularly unlucky not to be named in the AA team. His 6 goal performance against Tasmania just confirmed his credentials as a dangerous goal kicking option and his 44 possessions in a game for Carey Grammar merely confirmed his reputation as a high production midfielder.
As far as Richmond is concerned, Macrae would be a welcome addition to a side crying out for cool headed distributer who's ability to link up and size up the best option is second nature. His ability to stop and prop, sidestep and deliver effectively is straight out of the Scott Pendlebury copy book. His kicking is also impressive with a wide array of tricks which allows him to fully exploit even the most difficult of the angles. The chips, snaps and tunnelling of the ball make him an unpredictable and formidable opponent, whilst his long kicking can be pinpoint at 50 metres. On this last point, I think Macrae still has a little room for improvement and I would like to see him focus using his long kicking to better effect. It's certainly not a major issue, just a case of bring more consistency to his game.
At best, Macrae will be an elite midfielder who sits comfortably in his clubs 2 or 3 elite ballwinners. To do this however, he'll need to develop more of an inside game which sees him become more of a clearance specialist and not just a link man. If he can't hone his contested ball winning ability, he might find himself as a Shaun Grigg type who can play a role but isn't necessarily a top tier gamebreaker.
Sam Mayes - It was a tough choice but in the end I've pegged Sam behind Macrae but slightly ahead of Vlastuin. On the plus side, he's arguably the best kick in the draft both in terms of aesthetics and general effectiveness and he is a noted goal scorer. His acceleration is top notch and he's also a strong mark for his size, shades of Brad Green some might say. His form in the u/18 carnival was eye-catching and consistent which just backed up his impressive 2011 where he was named AA CHF and he genuinely looks a cut above for sheer skill and ball usage on his preferred side. He's the type who doesn't require a whole heap of possessions to hurt the opposition and he's got that flare which has the potential to blow games apart in a similar manner to Dale Thomas.
Mayes has already been exposed to SANFL which in my eyes, is a more accurate barometer of how well he'll transition to AFL football. Having chalked up a BOG and holding his own in a finals setting, one feels that he'll make the jump to AFL reasonably seamlessly. According to his coaches, he seems to be very professional in the way he goes about his business and has a good fitness base which should see him take up midfield duities in the near future.
Looking at areas for improvement, his non-preferred side demands some immediate attention, and he needs to be careful that he doesn't become too predictable in his movements. He has some lovely tricks up his sleeve, but if he wants to reach the eights of a Dale Thomas or Nat Fyfe, then he'll need to develop some penetration on his left side. There have also been some reports that Sam has been made to look fairly ordinary when on the receiving end of some heavy attention in the SANFL. Notably, this has lead to some rushed decision making and poor disposal. All things considered however, I think his good deeds playing for North Adelaide have outweighed the bad, and considering his age and playing weight, his performances in the seniors should be seen in some sort of perspective.
Looking at things from a Richmond perspective, I think Mayes brings something to the side that we're sorely lacking, and that is a little bit of the old x-factor. We haven't really had a game breaking medium sized forward since the days of Nathan Brown and I think it's about time we looked at addressing that deficiency. I think it's fair to say that Sam is no certainty to make it as an elite onballer, this may work against him in the scheme of things, but even as permanent forward, I think there's a place for him in our starting 18.
Nick Vlastuin - I must admit that Vlastuin has been oscillating up and down my rankings for some time. In the end, I've placed him behind Macrae and Mayes on the grounds that he hasn't yet convinced me that he'll be the huge ball winning machine that we so obviously need in middle. At the moment, I primarily see him on a back flank where his neat and composed disposal will be used to great effect, along with his fierce attack on both the player and ball. In short, he's a tackling machine and with his sizable frame, should go on to intimidate and unsettle many unsuspecting forwards at AFL level.
The big issue with Vlastuin comes down to his ability to get his hands on the ball enough, despite being listed in the best players for Northern Knights on 8 occasions, he only managed to pass the 20 possession mark twice in 10 games. In some ways his tackle count has gone some way to compensating for the low disposal numbers, with an average of 6 tackles a game, it is definitely a feature of his game that I would consider to be elite.
In the RFC scheme of things, Vlastuin would be an immediate upgrade on Jackson. Better disposal, better leadership, more controlled aggression and seemingly more footy nouse. He's got the white line fever not unlike Toby Greene, and from all reports, is a coaches delight with the professionalism and leadership he brings to the table. At worst, Vlastuin will become a reliable core footballer who finds a niche in the backline and winds up playing 150 commendable games of football. At best, he'll become a high possession player like Lenny Hayes who exerts fierce defensive pressure and ends up captaining a club.