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Pick 29: Shai Bolton
- Thread starter puregreen
- Start date
Would you want them all in the one year though as I read an article recently of the number of flops you get when you have three or more low picks under 25.? Would it be better to spread them out for safety as too many picks in one draft will end up with some being busts? Even draft apparently which could make life harder as some could be early bloomers and others later. I did enjoy FOS on Sunday as he moved beautifully and with Draper both on our list I think I would sleep comfortably for the next 12-15 years.
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With Richmonds hand and if all those players leave you would be looking to maximize this draft, and have options of doing pick splits, trade for future picks, players etc.
Set up next year's draft too and do it again next year for 26.
Could set up the club for say the next 3 (24/25/26) drafts by good trading.
This is a similar article to the one I read. Worth reading if you haven’t already.
Is it possible to have too many first-round draft picks?
It's said that first-round picks are worth their weight in gold, but does it actually work against clubs to hold heaps at a time?
www.zerohanger.com
The planets are just aligning with Freo. They're firmly in the Premiership window, they've got three first rounders and they've identified the man they want. If we don't do it now we will never get a better offer.
Freo also have plenty of untried kids on their list pushing for games, the last thing they want to do is draft a bunch of Victorian kids and play them in the WAFL for the next few years. I reckon Michael Walters will retire, replaced by Shai and they may well be Premiership favourites.
Freo also have plenty of untried kids on their list pushing for games, the last thing they want to do is draft a bunch of Victorian kids and play them in the WAFL for the next few years. I reckon Michael Walters will retire, replaced by Shai and they may well be Premiership favourites.
I reckon there is a 50% chance that Baker and Graham goes.
25% chance the above and Bolton goes
5% chance that all of the above happens and Rioli.
Cant ever remember a side removing 4 core players with 3 probably top ten players in the team.
It aint all happening.
25% chance the above and Bolton goes
5% chance that all of the above happens and Rioli.
Cant ever remember a side removing 4 core players with 3 probably top ten players in the team.
It aint all happening.
It is a bit easier to understand, given that we have had these guys in the team for most of this year and the results have been underwhelming.
It's actually not necessary to lose all the players to further load up on picks. Some players will obviously go though. May just also need say Gold Coasts pick 7 if Richmond could then on trade or split.
Have a look at what Gold Coast did last year.
Traded pick 4 + late picks to the Bulldogs for pick 10, 17 and a future 1st round... That would probably be enough.
That 10 was then traded to Melbourne for 14, 27 & 35.
They did further trades after that but if you stop at that -
Pick 4 and some later picks turned into - 14, 17, 27, 35 & a future 1st round (pick 12 this year)
May be harder to do this year with an more even draft but could split into multiple future 1st round picks etc.
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A bit of a crude analysis. I didnt read to closely, but they are rating all 1st rd picks as equal, so in 2011 our picks of 15 and 26 are rated against the Saints 2000 picks 1 &2. And the points system is flawed. E.g., Our 2017 draft of Cotchin and Rance is ranked 15 opposed to the Dogs 2012 draft of Stringer, MacRae and Hrovat which got 13.This is a similar article to the one I read. Worth reading if you haven’t already.
Is it possible to have too many first-round draft picks?
It's said that first-round picks are worth their weight in gold, but does it actually work against clubs to hold heaps at a time?
Other than the slight risk of trying to play to many highly ranked young kids at once, especially if they are all midfielders, i cannot see how drafting with say picks 1, 3, 6, 8 & 10 in one year is any more or less risky than spreading those same picks across 2 or 3 years.
I reckon you are out on the 1st line. Its the 13th August. Both Baker and Graham are gone IMO - 90% sure of it.
Of the other 2, reckon there is a lot more behind Bolton going than Dan. Not certain on Dan, but reckon Shai will also leave.
If Dan doesn't go, expect to see us go hard for GC's 1st pick.
You've made some good points, but overall history shows you're not going to be highly successful at nailing the draft with 3 or more picks. Message was sort of lost with their system as you stated, but their point still stands. Five in the first ten would have to be a massively strong draft and rarely happens i would think. We would almost expect the other five picks to be duds and we select the five good ones. History says ain't gunna happen. T he mistakes i'm reading and hearing a lot of from posters and people is basically the more early picks the better. Reasons obviously to accelerate our rebuild, but history shows you really need to nail yes nail three drafts totalling at least 6 guns. We need to be patient otherwise we could mess this up putting all our eggs in one basket.
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With a huge draft hand and TPP space what's to say Richmond won't also target contracted players from other clubs with big offers along with hitting the draft hard. Doesn't just have to be this year either as can be done over multiple years.
yes that's a different story again , but we aren't ready for that now as we messed everything up with TT and JH. We've lost two years in the rebuild process and we may still have not bottomed out. Being impatient and too ambitious really set us back.
Not if you target quality players in the right age group. Hit the Free Agency too.
Will have the youth coming through this and future drafts as well.
We tried that , sorry i have to disagree . You go for super quality like Prestia and Lynch when you have a nucleus of young jets and not the other way round otherwise they become a waste. Our kids are basically average at best with no superstars. We need to be patient now as we've dug our own hole and why we've onl;y won two games. Sorry your method is the road to disaster as we don't have a minimum of 6 young jets and 6 A graders on our list, especially if we lose our three fastest, elite and best experienced players in Rioli, Baker and Bolton. We could be left with a lettuce patch full of snails.
I'm in this camp, too.
I think the chances of Baker, Graham and Bolton all departing are now well north of 50%.
The loss of Rioli could be a culture-killer, so I expect the club to hold him to his contract.
Unless the Suns go a little cray-cray ... and who's to say they won't?
There aren't that many top 10 busts anymore, to suggest 5 of the top 10 are duds, is a ludicrous argument.
Going back to 2017 the top 10 was Rayner, Brayshaw, Dow, LDU, Cerra, Stephenson, Clark, Coffield, Naughton and O'Brien. A few impacted by injuries for sure, but IMO the only 2 duds were the 2 picked up by Carlton.
2018 - Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine, King, Rozee, King, Smith, Thomas, Jones, Blakey. The only real question mark ability wise is Jones, but he will easily still play 100-150 games.
2019 - Rowell, Anderson, Jackosn, Ash, Stephens, McAsey, Young, Serong, Henry, Green. Probably no duds, McAsey was clearly in his head rather than ability, he didn't want it enough, interviews should have found that out, Stephens the only other one.
2020 - This one is clearly the standout. Covid affected year so no surprises it has the most questionable top 10. JUH, Thilthorpe, Philips, McDonald, Campbell, Grainger-Barass, Hollands, Cox, Perkins, Reid. Thanksfully the Bombers had 3 top 10 picks in a questionable draft. Haha
2021 - JHF, Darcy, Callaghan, Daicos, Andrew, Rachele, Ward, Amiss, Gibcus, Erasmus. Erasmus the main question mark ability wise, but I remember he was expected to be a slower burn.
2022 - A bit early but some very good signs from this group, bar 1 or 2. Cadman, Ashcroft, Sheezel, Wardlaw, Tsatas, Humphrey, MacKenzie, Clark, Ginbey, Phillipou
I wouldn't say there are real duds, in there, probably a few picked ahead of their output, but that happens all the time, thats just what we need to try and avoid.
No way does the club only look at drafting over the next few years and not even consider trading players in or Free Agency.
You can be guaranteed all options will be open.
