Pick 29: Shai Bolton

[TIGER-P155]

I'm not confusing anything. You are saying that its lower risk to target multiple drafts, but you have the same probability to screw your picks up across mutliple drafts. Actually probability wise, its probably easier to screw up by spreading the picks. As you suggest there are "duds" (you still haven't inferred what a dud is btw) in every draft. If you take 10 picks across 1 draft or 10 across 3, you actually have more chance (probability speaking) to screw it up by taking over 3 drafts, because at least taking every pick in 1 top 10, you are guaranteed you can pick the best players, you aren't guaranteed that by splitting it.

You assumption again is that the picks are correct, but that doesn't matter if you do it all in 1 draft or across multiple.

I haven't said anything about drafting elite or not, but countering your view that you lower the risk of spreading the picks when probability speaking, its actually the opposite.

Yes history shows that no-one has built their premiership list in 1 draft but when has that occurred before? When was the last time teams took lets say 4 picks inside 10? Probably going back to the GWS drafts, its just unheard of, but doesn't change probability.

The probability of finding 5-7 elite footballers in the one draft is my point. what i want our list managers is to try and combine picks for two really early picks for our 3 years of future drafts 24,25 and 26 as we need to get the cream of the cream. Doesn't have to be all done overnight as we need to be smart and patient. The Tortoise and The Hare analogy where slow and steady wins the race. A lot of the latter drafts you showed had Academy picks and father/sons which means they're out of our reach and are left doing deals which means we need to altar our selection which adds risk if you have too many picks in the one draft.
You misunderstood my probability theory . It's a greater probability to mess up one draft for a drafter than for them to mess up a second or a third unless they're Matty Clarke. lol
A dud is a Richard Tambling type as he can linger around for 100 plus games and amount to nothing. FOS reminded me a bit of LIDS on Saturday with his beautiful sidesteps and elite kicking , so him and Draper are a must get for me and Duursma next year.

Coates Talent League Player Focus: Willem Duursma

Potential top prospect for 2025, Willem Duursma kicked off his bottom-age campaign with Gippsland Power in style on the weekend.

central.rookieme.com

 

[mrposhman]

The probability of finding 5-7 elite footballers in the one draft is my point. what i want our list managers is to try and combine picks for two really early picks for our 3 years of future drafts 24,25 and 26 as we need to get the cream of the cream. Doesn't have to be all done overnight as we need to be smart and patient. The Tortoise and The Hare analogy where slow and steady wins the race. A lot of the latter drafts you showed had Academy picks and father/sons which means they're out of our reach and are left doing deals which means we need to altar our selection which adds risk if you have too many picks in the one draft.
You misunderstood my probability theory . It's a greater probability to mess up one draft for a drafter than for them to mess up a second or a third unless they're Matty Clarke. lol
A dud is a Richard Tambling type as he can linger around for 100 plus games and amount to nothing. FOS reminded me a bit of LIDS on Saturday with his beautiful sidesteps and elite kicking , so him and Draper are a must get for me and Duursma next year.

Coates Talent League Player Focus: Willem Duursma

Potential top prospect for 2025, Willem Duursma kicked off his bottom-age campaign with Gippsland Power in style on the weekend.

central.rookieme.com

You are right in some ways, yes you are right, getting elite players with every pick in the top 10 is unlikely, but you were saying it was lower risk, its actually not. We should still try and spread the picks in some ways, but if we can get 4 picks inside 10, this year then we would be taking them, we wouldn't then try and trade 1 into next year, especially as we'd probably get less for them.

More likely what we should do, is take the high draft picks we are given if the 4 boys that are touted as moving leave, but this should leave us with a number of picks (including our own), right at the start of Round 2, which are the picks that we should be looking to trade into next year. We've seen significant premiums offered when players have dropped that clubs want and in an even draft is far more likely for that to occur. Sure we wouldn't be getting top 10's, but we might get an offer of a F1, or we might get an extra future pick for dropping back a spot or 2 for example. These sort of trades have happened several times over the last few years, and are more likely in an even draft when each sides top 25 could be completely different.

 

[TIGER-P155]

You are right in some ways, yes you are right, getting elite players with every pick in the top 10 is unlikely, but you were saying it was lower risk, its actually not. We should still try and spread the picks in some ways, but if we can get 4 picks inside 10, this year then we would be taking them, we wouldn't then try and trade 1 into next year, especially as we'd probably get less for them.

More likely what we should do, is take the high draft picks we are given if the 4 boys that are touted as moving leave, but this should leave us with a number of picks (including our own), right at the start of Round 2, which are the picks that we should be looking to trade into next year. We've seen significant premiums offered when players have dropped that clubs want and in an even draft is far more likely for that to occur. Sure we wouldn't be getting top 10's, but we might get an offer of a F1, or we might get an extra future pick for dropping back a spot or 2 for example. These sort of trades have happened several times over the last few years, and are more likely in an even draft when each sides top 25 could be completely different.

The latter paragraph is what we need to be doing. Four picks inside 10 is possible, but we are wanting to be at least getting 2 elite , one A grader and one role player as a bare minimum because of the three major players and one role player we could be losing for them.
agree on combining picks, but i meant in for the current draft as you wouldn't take the risk of trading a 2024 FR with a future one. I want to to try and do combining over two draft years as a minimum, but we may not have to as we could get a priority pick if the season copies this one.

 

[Number8]

He's a jet mate, but checked out and doesn't want to get injured for his future club. Put him in a half decent side he will take opposition teams to the cleaners. He's actually a more valuable footballer than Rioli as he can play midfield and kick 30-50 goals a season. I want 2 firsts and a second for him, but i won't get my Christmas present .

The word 'valuable' is interesting.

On the one hand, Rioli is more valuable because of the gut-busting efforts and never-say-die attitude that are the attributes of a follow me-type leader.

On the other hand, Bolton is more valuable because of the promise he holds to make a good team great.

I reckon it ultimately works like this: Rioli is more valuable to hold; Bolton is more valuable to trade.

I hope you're right about Bolton potentially netting us at least a couple of firsts.

You'd take that right now and it would be the right thing to do.

 

[Baron Samedi]

The word 'valuable' is interesting.

On the one hand, Rioli is more valuable because of the gut-busting efforts and never-say-die attitude that are the attributes of a follow me-type leader.

On the other hand, Bolton is more valuable because of the promise he holds to make a good team great.

I reckon it ultimately works like this: Rioli is more valuable to hold; Bolton is more valuable to trade.

I hope you're right about Bolton potentially netting us at least a couple of firsts.

You'd take that right now and it would be the right thing to do.

yes, good distinction.

however, I think both will be traded by the club.

 

[Little Ziggyadee]

We will find out in 2 weeks. After the end season interviews.
If he says he wants out.
Wrap him up and send him on his way.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Doesn't work like that mate. History clearly proves that ELITE Talent is rarely bunched in one draft. You're not going to find Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt, Rance and Sheds in one draft . They took 3 drafts and two were later picks. If the draft recruiter screws up 3 drafts then he's going to screw one draft no matter how many picks he has. Laws of probability of statistics show it's easier to screw up one draft than two or three. You eventually get one right. I think we may have the best in the business in Toce and he will need to scour through three drafts to get us back to the top. You're still confusing elite talent with role players and we need the elite talent ATM.
Let the 2004 Draft be an ugly reminder to you.

2004 draft???
Wasn't that Deledio, Roughhead, Griffin, Franklin Tambling, Williams, Lewis. Reckon by anyone's count there was some absolutely magnificent talent to start that draft.
Woofers punted badly on Williams, but Griffin was a bloody good player
Deledio was a gun and even Bling managed a 124 game career so a reasonable player
Roughy, Flanklin, Lewis, bloody hawks made out like robbers, they absolutely nailed it
Rest of that draft was fairly average regardless of how many picks a club had. Cloke F/S to Colonwood n Le Cras to Wet coke were fairly decent as was big Ivvy Maric. While a certain Nathan Ablett could have been up alongside his old man n brother but for the fact that he simply wasn't interested in AFL footy.

If there's talent available in the draft, the only requirement is for the recruiters to pick the right talent. For all intents and purposes this years draft talent is very deep and even. Obviously the best talent to be found will be in the first ten picks so being able to correctly pick 2 or 3 of the top ten would be ideal. That would be your expected premium player quota and then if you can back that up by picking up another 3 or 4 solid core 150 game players within the top 35 picks you've pretty much slaughtered a draft. If you've still got leftover picks then perhaps there's a rough diamond late or rookie pick, or the option of trading out later picks for future picks instead.
More than likely we'll be around the lower reaches of the draft again next year so every chance we can pick up another premium or two again then.

 

[TIGER-P155]

2004 draft???
Wasn't that Deledio, Roughhead, Griffin, Franklin Tambling, Williams, Lewis. Reckon by anyone's count there was some absolutely magnificent talent to start that draft.
Woofers punted badly on Williams, but Griffin was a bloody good player
Deledio was a gun and even Bling managed a 124 game career so a reasonable player
Roughy, Flanklin, Lewis, bloody hawks made out like robbers, they absolutely nailed it
Rest of that draft was fairly average regardless of how many picks a club had. Cloke F/S to Colonwood n Le Cras to Wet coke were fairly decent as was big Ivvy Maric. While a certain Nathan Ablett could have been up alongside his old man n brother but for the fact that he simply wasn't interested in AFL footy.

If there's talent available in the draft, the only requirement is for the recruiters to pick the right talent. For all intents and purposes this years draft talent is very deep and even. Obviously the best talent to be found will be in the first ten picks so being able to correctly pick 2 or 3 of the top ten would be ideal. That would be your expected premium player quota and then if you can back that up by picking up another 3 or 4 solid core 150 game players within the top 35 picks you've pretty much slaughtered a draft. If you've still got leftover picks then perhaps there's a rough diamond late or rookie pick, or the option of trading out later picks for future picks instead.
More than likely we'll be around the lower reaches of the draft again next year so every chance we can pick up another premium or two again then.

Our picks we failed after Lids. Didn’t we have 1,4,12,16,20? One success story and four failures.
Bling was a failure and nothing more. Played two good games iirc.

 

[Little Ziggyadee]

Our picks we failed after Lids. Didn’t we have 1,4,12,16,20? One success story and four failures.
Bling was a failure and nothing more. Played two good games iirc.

Hawthorn ripped us a new one.
All thanks to Greg beck that spilled the beans who we were after.
Causing Hawthorn to reshuffle and take Roughhead 1st and then Franklin.
We wanted Deledio and Roughhead.
Roughhead was at Clinton Casey's house for the BBQ.

 

[TIGER-P155]

Hawthorn ripped us a new one.
All thanks to Greg beck that spilled the beans who we were after.
Causing Hawthorn to reshuffle and take Roughhead 1st and then Franklin.
We wanted Deledio and Roughhead.
Roughhead was at Clinton Casey's house for the BBQ.

Miller was a gullible fruitcake. Every other clubs friend except for the one that was employing and feeding him. He thought he was being smart too. All he had to do was keep his mouth shut or throw around some blanks, but he was just a good guy loser type.
I know someone very similar to him and he’s cost me a *smile* load of money playing similar games , so he's been off my Christmas card list for nine years. Once a gullible moron always one as it’s ingrained in them.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Our picks we failed after Lids. Didn’t we have 1,4,12,16,20? One success story and four failures.
Bling was a failure and nothing more. Played two good games iirc.

As I said before, there wasn't a real lot of talent available outside of the top bunch, but is it the players fault for not being real good or the recruiters fault for *smile* up the picks. Hawforn's recruiter didn't miss.
Lids n Roughy?
Lids n Flanklin?
Lids n Lewis?
We had the picks sitting there n the recruiting experts *smile* up big time, could even have picked up a very handy Le Cras with our pick 20 to finish off our draft with n been laughing.

 

[TIGER-P155]

As I said before, there wasn't a real lot of talent available outside of the top bunch, but is it the players fault for not being real good or the recruiters fault for *smile* up the picks. Hawforn's recruiter didn't miss.
Lids n Roughy?
Lids n Flanklin?
Lids n Lewis?
We had the picks sitting there n the recruiting experts *smile* up big time, could even have picked up a very handy Le Cras with our pick 20 to finish off our draft with n been laughing.

Recruiters in this case. It was a good screw up in the end as we ended up with Jack, Cotch, Dusty, Rance and Sheds. lol

 

[craig]

Just out of interest I looked at the Freo board on Big Footy to see the temperature in the room of their trade draft thread.

Seriously they are saying 1 first rounder is ample for Bolton because he is from WA and wants to go home.

Forgot about his what 5-year contract and the fact he is a top tier X factor player in the league.

This coming from a mob who demanded 2 first rounders for *smile* from the Flag pies.

FMD.

Its 2 first rounders clowns and it'll be both of em in the top 10 or GAGF

 

[RoarEmotion]

Just out of interest I looked at the Freo board on Big Footy to see the temperature in the room of their trade draft thread.

Seriously they are saying 1 first rounder is ample for Bolton because he is from WA and wants to go home.

Forgot about his what 5-year contract and the fact he is a top tier X factor player in the league.

This coming from a mob who demanded 2 first rounders for *smile* from the Flag pies.

FMD.

Its 2 first rounders clowns and it'll be both of em in the top 10 or GAGF

Doesn’t matter what their fans think.

Player who can be top 10 in comp and under contract isn’t going for peanuts.

 

[craig]

Doesn’t matter what their fans think.

Player who can be top 10 in comp and under contract isn’t going for peanuts.

Exactly

 

[BillyJean17]

Doesn’t matter what their fans think.

Player who can be top 10 in comp and under contract isn’t going for peanuts.

Did anyone mention he’s also being paid 1mn plus a year , they’re worth more than 1 x r1

 

[Baron Samedi]

will be interesting if the trade goods are kept in a cool, dry warehouse and not risked in these last coupla weeks

 

[achillesjones]

Put them each in a nice gift box with their new team colours bow on it.

If any of them wanted to stay Tigers, they would have killed the speculation by now.

Dimma has led the way in the ongoing commitment stakes.

Mark Knight's Tiger bus is not going over the cliff.

In confident brash new kids we trust.

 

[TIGER-P155]

Just out of interest I looked at the Freo board on Big Footy to see the temperature in the room of their trade draft thread.

Seriously they are saying 1 first rounder is ample for Bolton because he is from WA and wants to go home.

Forgot about his what 5-year contract and the fact he is a top tier X factor player in the league.

This coming from a mob who demanded 2 first rounders for *smile* from the Flag pies.

FMD.

Its 2 first rounders clowns and it'll be both of em in the top 10 or GAGF

EVERYBODY EITHER WANTS TOO MUCH FOR THEIR OWN AND NOTHING FOR ANOTHER TEAMS PLAYERS. IRRELEVANT MATE.

 

[The Sash]

If we could somehow manage a draft hand anywhere near this sort of value. First point of order would be to bid on young Ashcroft with pick 1 n make Brisvegas pay as much as possible to get him, kids fully in the mix for top 3 anyway so *smile* letting a finalist n likely flag contender get him on the cheap. Then after Brisvegas pay as close to full price as possible it would be pants off party time for the Touche recruiter guy.

.