Pick 12 discussion.

[GEDS1]

If Lever is till on the board at 12 FJ will scream his name ouT !

 

[Chimptastic]

As for Wright, just putting it out there that I think he's not going to enjoy his football and looks and sounds scared. Doesn't like playing ruck, doesn't hurt the opposition. Not sure enough of himself in interviews. Based off hundreds of hours of footage of course :hihi

Whereas a Tippett at the same age was bullish about what he could do and looked strong and confident.

I'll be fascinated to see how certain personality types fare in such an intense, professional AFL environment. It's not for everyone! It would be nice to be able to identify the duds early.

Who would you guys say is most likely to be a dud pick?

 

[Teckor]

If Lever is till on the board at 12 FJ will scream his name ouT !

Agree, can definitely see FJ calling his name out at 12. Richmond previously probably didn't even consider Lever much of a chance to fall to 12. Was potential for Melbourne to look at him at pick 2/3, then GWS with 3 picks, and then Geelong at 10. Cards could fall into place here if GWS pass and Geelong takes Wright.

 

[FistFullOfDollars]

I've seen enough of Ellis at the carnival to make my mind up, I also make it a habit to watch the TAC highlight packages, along with vision from the WAFL & SANFL, not ideal but it gives me some idea. Stats come into play as do various opinions, I don't pretend to be an expert but you seem to have a bee in your bonnet about me expressing an opinion. Unlike some draft watchers I'm willing to make definitive calls, I personally don't see the point in talking up every player as the next Gary Ablett.

Don't understand why you are bringing this up again, you made a typo and I thought we've moved on. Obviously not.

If you look at the U18 all Australian teams over the past 8 years, they have so many duds in them it's not funny. Proof in itself that you can't put too much stock in a player by how they perform at the at the national level which I know you do. So many great players have played below average or not at all in the Carnival over the years and went on to become great players.

Just off the top of my head. Jack Riewoldt, Patrick Dangerfield, Fyfe, Sloane, Dion Prestia. All didn't play well enough or at all to be named All Australian at U18 level. What if our club picks Ellis because they see something in him that means he could turn into a player like those guys I've mentioned?

By your own admission you have seen Ellis play a max 3 times. Thats as many times Vic Metro played in Victoria this year and you say you've seen enough. Even though you know Ellis didn't play another game for the year after the carnival because of a stress fracture which must have obviously hampered him through the carnival.

Sloane wasn't seen as a first rounder, neither was Fyfe and remember the controversy when the Crows picked Dangerfield over Ebert .
Yet after so many unknowns and uncertainties in this draft caper you say you've seen enough.

When you make definitive and such strong statements with finality on a player you do come off like you believe you have an expert opinion. I'm not asking you to talk up every player as the next Gary Ablett but I would like some balance and not the constant dogging of a player.

 

[scottyturnerscurse]

The almost overkill analysis of this year's draft must be harrowing for the prospective draftees.

 

[tigertime2]

If you look at the U18 all Australian teams over the past 8 years, they have so many duds in them it's not funny. Proof in itself that you can't put too much stock in a player by how they perform at the at the national level which I know you do. So many great players have played below average or not at all in the Carnival over the years and went on to become great players.

Just off the top of my head. Jack Riewoldt, Patrick Dangerfield, Fyfe, Sloane, Dion Prestia. All didn't play well enough or at all to be named All Australian at U18 level. What if our club picks Ellis because they see something in him that means he could turn into a player like those guys I've mentioned?

By your own admission you have seen Ellis play a max 3 times. Thats as many times Vic Metro played in Victoria this year and you say you've seen enough. Even though you know Ellis didn't play another game for the year after the carnival because of a stress fracture which must have obviously hampered him through the carnival.

Sloane wasn't seen as a first rounder, neither was Fyfe and remember the controversy when the Crows picked Dangerfield over Ebert .
Yet after so many unknowns and uncertainties in this draft caper you say you've seen enough.

When you make definitive and such strong statements with finality on a player you do come off like you believe you have an expert opinion. I'm not asking you to talk up every player as the next Gary Ablett but I would like some balance and not the constant dogging of a player.

Gary Ablett was told he was not good enough as a junior...it is all subjective imagine if Gary had have believed them??

 

[Stylo]

By your own admission you have seen Ellis play a max 3 times. Thats as many times Vic Metro played in Victoria this year and you say you've seen enough. Even though you know Ellis didn't play another game for the year after the carnival because of a stress fracture which must have obviously hampered him through the carnival.

Snap. That's a point many seem to be missing. He was inconsistent this year, sure, but who knows how long he was struggling with that. He was seen by many as a top ten pick earlier in the year when playing well, and his best has certainly been good enough to earn that tag. Had he consistently played his best footy this year I reckon he'd be in the conversation for Collingwood's pick 5, easy.

 

[bullus_hit]

If you look at the U18 all Australian teams over the past 8 years, they have so many duds in them it's not funny. Proof in itself that you can't put too much stock in a player by how they perform at the at the national level which I know you do. So many great players have played below average or not at all in the Carnival over the years and went on to become great players.

Just off the top of my head. Jack Riewoldt, Patrick Dangerfield, Fyfe, Sloane, Dion Prestia. All didn't play well enough or at all to be named All Australian at U18 level. What if our club picks Ellis because they see something in him that means he could turn into a player like those guys I've mentioned?

By your own admission you have seen Ellis play a max 3 times. Thats as many times Vic Metro played in Victoria this year and you say you've seen enough. Even though you know Ellis didn't play another game for the year after the carnival because of a stress fracture which must have obviously hampered him through the carnival.

Sloane wasn't seen as a first rounder, neither was Fyfe and remember the controversy when the Crows picked Dangerfield over Ebert .
Yet after so many unknowns and uncertainties in this draft caper you say you've seen enough.

When you make definitive and such strong statements with finality on a player you do come off like you believe you have an expert opinion. I'm not asking you to talk up every player as the next Gary Ablett but I would like some balance and not the constant dogging of a player.

You really won't let up will you, I've basically stated adnauseum that I rate Ellis in the 20-25 bracket, that's my humble opinion. If you don't appreciate my comments feel free to use the ignore function.

Snap. That's a point many seem to be missing. He was inconsistent this year, sure, but who knows how long he was struggling with that. He was seen by many as a top ten pick earlier in the year when playing well, and his best has certainly been good enough to earn that tag. Had he consistently played his best footy this year I reckon he'd be in the conversation for Collingwood's pick 5, easy.

I have never rated him a top ten prospect, even when he dominated against WA. But for the Ellis fan club here's my reasons.

1) Low possession gatherer, over the course of his career he rarely hits 30+ touches, this has and always will be one of my key parameters
2) He lacks pace and isn't a run and carry player, given our current list I think we need to place a premium on this quality.
3) He's prone to inconsistency, half his games this year finished with a KE of 33%
4) His best game at the carnival was against WA, a relatively weak opponent. He struggled against eventual champions SA (twice) and hasn't really turned it on against the best in the TAC either.
5) His defensive side is ok but not outstanding. He averages roughly 3.5 tackles a match.
6) He's not a noted offensive player, he's kicked 7 goals in 20 TAC games. His conversion rate this year was around the 35% mark.
7) His contested game at TAC level has been good but he didn't take that form into the carnival, he only averaged 2 clearances a match. His contested possession ratio also dropped by 20%.
8) His contested marking ability is still unknown, despite his coach waxing lyrical about this feature of his game, he has only taken 1 contested mark in 2 years.

My assessment of Ellis is he's a worthy second rounder, I would be happy with him at pick 33 but not 12. We can spend all day speculating as to why he hasn't performed better but I feel I've seen enough to make an educated guess as to where he sits in the pecking order. People are entitled to their own opinions and we'll just have to wait and see where the professionals place him. My guess is he goes later rather than sooner.

 

[TigerForce]

The almost overkill analysis of this year's draft must be harrowing for the prospective draftees.

Just 6 days to go....this thread's givin' me 'eadaches.. ;D

 

[Chiang Mai Tiger]

We get slaughtered by teams that have pace and are able to carry the ball

We get slaughtered most by teams who win the ball first.

We get slaughtered by the umpires. Pity the draft can't fix that one.

 

[scottyturnerscurse]

Just 6 days to go....this thread's givin' me 'eadaches.. ;D

Five days if we post our draftee's pick and bio online early.

 

[FistFullOfDollars]

You really won't let up will you, I've basically stated adnauseum that I rate Ellis in the 20-25 bracket, that's my humble opinion. If you don't appreciate my comments feel free to use the ignore function.

I have never rated him a top ten prospect, even when he dominated against WA. But for the Ellis fan club here's my reasons.

1) Low possession gatherer, over the course of his career he rarely hits 30+ touches, this has and always will be one of my key parameters
2) He lacks pace and isn't a run and carry player, given our current list I think we need to place a premium on this quality.
3) He's prone to inconsistency, half his games this year finished with a KE of 33%
4) His best game at the carnival was against WA, a relatively weak opponent. He struggled against eventual champions SA (twice) and hasn't really turned it on against the best in the TAC either.
5) His defensive side is ok but not outstanding. He averages roughly 3.5 tackles a match.
6) He's not a noted offensive player, he's kicked 7 goals in 20 TAC games. His conversion rate this year was around the 35% mark.
7) His contested game at TAC level has been good but he didn't take that form into the carnival, he only averaged 2 clearances a match. His contested possession ratio also dropped by 20%.
8) His contested marking ability is still unknown, despite his coach waxing lyrical about this feature of his game, he has only taken 1 contested mark in 2 years.

My assessment of Ellis is he's a worthy second rounder, I would be happy with him at pick 33 but not 12. We can spend all day speculating as to why he hasn't performed better but I feel I've seen enough to make an educated guess as to where he sits in the pecking order. People are entitled to their own opinions and we'll just have to wait and see where the professionals place him. My guess is he goes later rather than sooner.

I won't let up because you refuse to concede that you may not have seen enough or you could be wrong.

The last time I got into and argument like this it went along very similar lines. It was with Phantom over Luke Parker who argued that Caddy was better and that Parker had a weak contested game. I didn't let that slip either.

 

[bullus_hit]

I won't let up because you refuse to concede that you may not have seen enough or you could be wrong.

The last time I got into and argument like this it went along very similar lines. It was with Phantom over Luke Parker who argued that Caddy was better and that Parker had a weak contested game. I didn't let that slip either.

So what's your point? I'm truly confused, Ellis is a top ten prospect?

 

[FistFullOfDollars]

So what's your point? I'm truly confused, Ellis is a top ten prospect?

Point is you watch very close to sweet FA of these kids and you fail to recognise that by making definitive calls on if a player is worth our pick 12 or not.

Concede you may be wrong on Ellis and that he has potential upside because you've only watched him play 3 times.

I know you probable won't do that. I've made my point. I'll leave you alone now.

 

[tigerlove]

The test for Petracca there was not his ability to break records but the ability to push through the pain barrier and finish the task. Recruiters would have known he was sore or injured. What they would have been looking for is whether he has the mental toughness to push through the pain barrier.

And he couldn't push through the pain barrier to finish. So maybe he will drop down to us at #12? Personally I think it's ridiculous sending someone out who is hurt to do a time trial when they're already acutely aware of his abilities and mental state through his past history and is already locked in as a a top 2 pick.

 

[bullus_hit]

Point is you watch very close to sweet FA of these kids and you fail to recognise that by making definitive calls on if a player is worth our pick 12 or not.

Concede you may be wrong on Ellis and that he has potential upside because you've only watched him play 3 times.

I know you probable won't do that. I've made my point. I'll leave you alone now.

So what is Ellis worth? I'm asking a pretty straight forward question. Is he better than Laverde, Lever, Ahern, Durdin, Garlett? It's all relative, no need to start the personal attacks either, this is an opinion thread, we share opinions. How about hearing yours for a change?

 

[tigerlove]

Point is you watch very close to sweet FA of these kids and you fail to recognise that by making definitive calls on if a player is worth our pick 12 or not.

Concede you may be wrong on Ellis and that he has potential upside because you've only watched him play 3 times.

I know you probable won't do that. I've made my point. I'll leave you alone now.

Must admit I don't know what all the kerfuffle is about. We all have opinions on what little or what a lot of footage we see or by any other means. Even the dedicated full time recruiters will get them wrong as there's no proven methodology for predicting which youngsters will adjust to AFL class and which ones won't. And there are so many variables. I'm not sure what bullus_hit should be conceding. Anyway let's not discourage posters, there's been some great discussions on player potential.

 

[FistFullOfDollars]

So what is Ellis worth? I'm asking a pretty straight forward question. Is he better than Laverde, Lever, Ahern, Durdin, Garlett? It's all relative, no need to start the personal attacks either, this is an opinion thread, we share opinions. How about hearing yours for a change?

Must admit I don't know what all the kerfuffle is about. We all have opinions on what little or what a lot of footage we see or by any other means. Even the dedicated full time recruiters will get them wrong as there's no proven methodology for predicting which youngsters will adjust to AFL class and which ones won't. And there are so many variables. I'm not sure what bullus_hit should be conceding. Anyway let's not discourage posters, there's been some great discussions on player potential.

Alright I'll let up.
I don't know who is better than Ellis or who worse than him. If your asking me who I prefer at 12? It's Weller. I think he could be our version of Brad Hill. However there are ramblings he may slip all the way down to 17 at the bombers so I'm not sure if the recruiters see something we don't. If Laverde was available I'd take him over Weller I think because of his seems like such a dynamic player.

I'll be fine if we pick Ellis because I trust our recruiting department. I've heard from friends with connections over at Kielor that he is an exceptional talent. I think even though he lacks dash that he still has the potential to be the best mid in the draft from what I have read and heard. I am worried about his stress fracture because I don't want a Trengove paper mache feet situation.

I can see merit in all the players we've been linked to because like most journos have said this seems to be a very even first round. All the guys have question marks over them but each would be a great addition to our line up.

 

[Baloo]

Strange argument. This is an internet forum where everyone's opinion is pretty much worth the same as everyone elses.

FWIW I think Bully is one of the more reasonable people who seem to know their stuff on here yet he's happy to concede he may not be right or happy to admit afterwards he may have got it wrong.

 

[Letsroar]

Well said Baloo